Remember that .202 BABIP we talked about? I did some rather quick research on the lowest BABIPs between 60 and 70 innings since 1999. Here are the results:
|Pitcher||Year||BABIP||n+1 BABIP||Career BABIP|
Obviously, the query is a bit arbitrary on the innings limit (between 60-70) and slightly so on the BABIP (sub-.250), but what we have are 15 relievers who met the criteria and had data available in the following year. From there we see that all but one saw their BABIP rise the following season, and the collective group by an average of 0.08 points. A bit of a small sample size, but there's at least a 93% shot at Wheeler's BABIP being substantially higher next season. We all ready suspected that, but this is simply the data backing the claim.