Dan Wheeler Needs to Smooth Talk Lady Luck Again

Remember that .202 BABIP we talked about? I did some rather quick research on the lowest BABIPs between 60 and 70 innings since 1999. Here are the results:

Pitcher Year BABIP n+1 BABIP Career BABIP
Benitez 2004 0.182 0.245 0.265
Wise 2005 0.206 0.285 0.284
Politte 2005 0.208 0.353 0.292
Nelson 2001 0.219 0.303 0.295
Shingu 2004 0.213 0.318 0.252
Takatsu 2007 0.213 0.35 0.279
Speier 2005 0.224 0.319 0.273
Isringhausen 2007 0.226 0.338 0.291
Rivera 1999 0.223 0.258 0.277
Mahomes 1999 0.224 0.3 0.287
Sasaki 2000 0.245 0.25 0.267
Papelbon 2006 0.239 0.237 0.277
Johnson 1999 0.231 0.342 0.29
Harikkala 2004 0.235 0.312 0.282
Springer 2007 0.24 0.265 0.295

Obviously, the query is a bit arbitrary on the innings limit (between 60-70) and slightly so on the BABIP (sub-.250), but what we have are 15 relievers who met the criteria and had data available in the following year. From there we see that all but one saw their BABIP rise the following season, and the collective group by an average of 0.08 points. A bit of a small sample size, but there's at least a 93% shot at Wheeler's BABIP being substantially higher next season. We all ready suspected that, but this is simply the data backing the claim.

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