Community Projections: Starting Pitchers

by Tommy Rancel on Jan 23, 2009 10:13 AM EST

Bumped to get more projections

In order to speed up the community projections, this post will feature all the Rays starting pitchers plus a few others projected as starters.

2008	IP	FIP	K's
Shields	215	3.82	160
Sonnanstine	193.1	3.91	124
Garza	184.2	414	128
Kazmir	152.1	4.37	166
Price*	79	5.12	59
Niemann*	111	5.05	86
Talbot*	151	4.8	102

*CHONE projections for 2009.

Please include your projections for IP/FIP/K's

Bumped in order to get more projections

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Shields 219/3.47/175
Sonny 185/4.04/120
Garza 202/3.73/150
Kazmir 175/3.80/190
Price 125/4.30/108
Niemann 80/4.54/70
Talbot 30/4.44/18

by Tommy Rancel on Jan 19, 2009 1:32 PM EST reply actions

hmmm.

Shields: 208/3.45/181
Sonny: 203/4.11/132
Garza: 200/3.31/169
Kazmir: 190/2.89/215
Price: 155/4.17/140
Niemann: 40/3.93/82 (Traded Mid-season)
Talbot: 60/4.88/56

I think the rotation is even better than last year, top to bottom.

by Lurch's Lobbyists on Jan 19, 2009 1:53 PM EST reply actions

Not sure how well I'll get the FIP

It does generally correspond to ERA, right (although, in line with my theory, I’m lowering Sonny’s FIP from what I think his ERA will be)?

Shields: 210/3.85/165
Sonnanstine: 220/3.55/140
Garza: 170/4.30/145
Kazmir: 160/3.40/170
Price: 160/3.75/118
Niemann: 110/4.85/75
Talbot: 35/4.65/28

Vogt early, Vogt often.

by Brickhaus on Jan 19, 2009 4:02 PM EST reply actions

Good lord dude, get off Sonny's jock.

by R.J. Anderson on Jan 20, 2009 12:41 PM EST up reply actions

I thought you were the one always overrating Sonny. He’ll still end up with something like a 14-12 record with an ERA over 4. Plus, it’s reasonable to expect that offense will be down league-wide again this year.

Vogt early, Vogt often.

by Brickhaus on Jan 20, 2009 1:13 PM EST up reply actions

I was joking.

Your projection for him makes mine look like I hate him.

by R.J. Anderson on Jan 20, 2009 1:16 PM EST up reply actions

Shields 235/3.50/175
Sonnastine 195/4.15/135
Garza 185/4.25/135
Kazmir 145/3.80/145
Price 150/3.25/160
Niemann 100/4.75/65
Talbot 55/4.45/35

The truth will set you free, but first it will piss you off.

by pocket8pin on Jan 19, 2009 5:34 PM EST reply actions

These projections make me wonder

what the last team with 5 starters each throwing 150+ innings in 2 consecutive seasons was?

It was St.Louis in ’04 and ’05. Typically only about 3 teams per year have 5 pitchers throw 150+innings. Less than half even have 4.

by nyyfaninlaaland on Jan 20, 2009 3:16 AM EST reply actions

How do you think, what should be increased offense, will translate to IP?

I would think if we score more runs and limit the same amount this would mean starters going longer in games, more innings for mop up guys, etc… I know last year we didn’t have too many games that were over by the 6th so if the starter got in a jam it was time to pull him. With a 3-4 run lead a leadoff single and a walk does not hurt nearly as much as with a 1 run lead.

Anyway, as I was lying in the puddle, I think I may have found a way for us to get Bonds and Griffey, and we wouldn't have to give up that much.

~George Costanza~

by Sandy Kazmir on Jan 20, 2009 2:00 PM EST up reply actions

My point isn't that pitchers will be pulled

it’s that some become unavailable due to injury or ineffectiveness. Teams want to let them stay in – history suggests other issues intervene.

My 150 IP threshold only requires an average of 6 IP for 25 starts. I’m not suggesting your pitchers will be ineffective, but some may be unavailable at times. Nature of the job.

by nyyfaninlaaland on Jan 23, 2009 1:22 PM EST up reply actions

I was asking a tangential question

that I was hoping to get feedback on from anybody. Your question is interesting and led me to think of mine so how do you think increased offense can effect the duration of a start for a pitcher?

Anyway, as I was lying in the puddle, I think I may have found a way for us to get Bonds and Griffey, and we wouldn't have to give up that much.

~George Costanza~

by Sandy Kazmir on Jan 23, 2009 3:51 PM EST up reply actions