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Bondsian Open Thread

In honor of this news, let's take a look at the 10 "best" seasons by someone age 43 or older (Bonds' age):

Player G Year Age Tm PA wOBA la RAA
Pete Rose 119 1985 44 CIN 500 .341 0.317 10.39
Julio Franco 125 2004 45 ATL 361 .361 0.33 9.60
Julio Franco 103 2003 44 ATL 223 .360 0.328 6.20
Julio Franco 108 2005 46 ATL 265 .351 0.326 5.86
Julio Franco 95 2006 47 NYM 179 .320 0.332 -1.89
Tony Perez 77 1986 44 CIN 228 .310 0.32 -1.93
Julio Franco 55 2007 48 TOT 106 .284 0.331 -4.29
Carlton Fisk 62 1992 44 CHW 214 .290 0.317 -5.04
Sam Rice 97 1934 44 CLE 367 .324 0.342 -5.76
Pete Rose 72 1986 45 CIN 272 .281 0.32 -9.34

Our old buddy Julio Franco is an absolute machine. I am unsure about where I would rank Bonds on my FA DH wishlist. I think it goes something like this: Burrell, Dunn. Bonds, Abreu, Giambi.

Use this thread to discuss whatever you like throughout the weekend.

 

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Just what I'd want

A 44 yr old (45 after the ASB) who is coming off a year of inactivity AND hip surgery, not to mention facing a federal trial.

Yup, that’s attractive.

The truth will set you free, but first it will piss you off.

by pocket8pin on Jan 2, 2009 2:55 PM EST reply actions   0 recs

Dont bother with logic

People here think Bonds could beat up Chuck Norris and Tim Tebow in a handicap match

Who cares what he did in 2002?

Who cares what his career OBP is?

Moises Alou has a career .885 OPS and had 39 HR in 2004 should we break the bank for him?

I mave nipples, can you milk me Focker?

by Rays4242 on Jan 2, 2009 3:12 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Ted Williams?

Bonds is top 5 on the juice, without it hes maybe top 30

Since we are working under the assumption he won’t be on juice, I think that to say hes the G.O.A.T as if it pertains to 2009 is of no importance

And thats not even taking into account that being good in the past does not equate to being good in the future as a 45 year old coming off hip surgery who hasnt played in over a year and at that time was clearly becoming a worse (non-juiced) hitter

I’m not sure I understand any of the arguments that have been made for Bonds yet other than the ones who say he is a good Cliff Floyd-esque fall back plan and that he is awaiting federal trial

I think Bonds and Alou are very comparable as far as how attractive they are to this team. They are options, but not ideal options considernig whats available and our resources

by Rays4242 on Jan 2, 2009 6:06 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

We're working under the assumptions that he'll be on whatever he was or was not on in 2007.

Steroids take a guy from top 5 to top 30? Really? God, how bad does Ozzie Canseco suck? Or how about all those roided up pitchers that Bonds had to face, or pitchers from other continents.


And thats not even taking into account that being good in the past does not equate to being good in the future as a 45 year old coming off hip surgery who hasnt played in over a year and at that time was clearly becoming a worse (non-juiced) hitter

Bonds was worth nearly 5 WAR in 2007, that’s as a poor no-knees fielder and as a 45-year-old. Evan Longoria level. That’s non-juiced? If he’s like a 3 WAR player now he’s worth it. If he’s a 2 WAR DH he’s equal to our best options.

by R.J. Anderson on Jan 2, 2009 6:14 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

44

Born July 24, 1964. He’s almost four years younger than me; I saw him playing baseball as a freshman for Serra HS in the WCAL when I was a senior at Sacred Heart.

The truth will set you free, but first it will piss you off.

by pocket8pin on Jan 2, 2009 7:02 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

What does a never has been who took steroids have to do with a hall of famer that took them?

Clearly I have learned by now that our beliefs in what effect steroids have on a player differ, so since that isnt even relevant here I’ll just agree to disagree about where Bonds would be on the all time list

I think its reasonable to believe Bonds could have a .350 OBP next year with 15 HR 80 RBI. I just fail to see how any of these arguments about what he did in 2002, how good he was from 1989-1999, or what his career OBP is, have to do with the obvious concerns for a 45 year old who no one has actually seen swing a bat in over a year that had HIP SURGERY (YES hip surgery for a pro athlete in his mid 40s is a bad indicator no matter what your man crush says).

Friedman should pursue him if Abreu, Burrell, Giambi, Bradley, Baldelli, and Dunn all sign elsewhere

by Rays4242 on Jan 2, 2009 6:20 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

What does Alou and Bonds from early 2000s have to do with how attractive they are now?

neither has played in a year and they are both in their mid 40s (only one isnt facing charges from teh FBI and coming off hip surgery)

by Rays4242 on Jan 2, 2009 6:22 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

I dont really care

I hope they sign Bonds over Alou, just not ahead of any of those other 6

by Rays4242 on Jan 2, 2009 6:23 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

and how attractive they are, the only comparison I made all along

Point being, if Bonds is signed Id have near the same excitement level as if Alou was signed. DO you really disagree with that, or would you really be thrilled over ending up with Bonds as our DH?

by Rays4242 on Jan 2, 2009 6:27 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

I would've been thrilled with Barry last year.

I would be fine with him now, but honestly there’s little chance of it happening. MLB fully intends of screwing everyone out of one or two more seasons from Bonds, the best player of the last generation, so whatever. Thanks MLB.

by R.J. Anderson on Jan 2, 2009 6:28 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

based on what exactly?

his 49 ABs from 2008 or his .916 OPS in 2007?

by Rays4242 on Jan 2, 2009 6:38 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

So a .916 OPS is bad?

I dont understand all that stuff, could you just come right out and tell me if 49 ABs from 2008 is the basis for those projections or if it’s the .916 OPS and .392 OBP he had in 2007?

by Rays4242 on Jan 2, 2009 6:44 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

It's his wOBA from 08, 07, 06

Along with fielding, positional, and replacement level (think playing time bonus). Alou is a ~ -3 fielder and -5ish positional. Moving to DH means you take 10 more runs away from him than as a corner outfielder.

15 bat
20 replacement
-17.5 positional

35 – 17.5

17.5 or 1.75 WAR.

by R.J. Anderson on Jan 2, 2009 6:50 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

"Top 5 with steroids, maybe top 30 without"

You’re implying steroids make the difference between “good” and “great”, yet they didn’t help Ozzie Canseco or the hundred other guys who took them at all, why would it make THAT big of a difference for Bonds?

I don’t care about his RBI totals, so that’s irrelevant, his homerun totals are impossible to predict. How are you saying .350 OBP when he hasn’t been that low (amazingly I call that low in this case) since 1987?

I’m not arguing about anything outside of his past three seasons. Beyond that it’s not going to help us evaluate him for next.

by R.J. Anderson on Jan 2, 2009 6:24 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

They didnt help Canseco because he was a lousy baseball player

This is why I didnt want to get into it, because it has no relevance here

Lets forget steroids for a second, and consider that in every sport where muscles are used, proper diet and muscle training will make you better. It brings out more of YOUR potential with your specific genes and god given talent.

If they didnt work why would players use them for the reasons they do? Sure some use HGH to recover from injuries, but Jose Canseco the expert on roids said he wouldve never made MLB if not for steroids. He used them specifically for muscle enhancement. He was a fringe MLer, and steroids enhanced his abilities

Bonds was a 1st ballot HOFer and I am a huge fan of his career. which has nothing to do with this discussion about signing him to me team right now, but he wasnt the best hitter of all time with steroids he wasnt even top 10 without him and none of this has anythign to do with who he will be next year so why was it said that any of this was of importance again?

by Rays4242 on Jan 2, 2009 6:34 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Its easier to put down rough estimates for HR/RBI off the top of my head

then it is to calclulate what that would be in SLG/OPS terms

Again you keep going back to old Bonds as some evidence for what he will do now. No one has seen him in a year. He just had hip surgery Id imagine that effects a baseball swing. And a .350 OBP is not bad. Sure it is nothing close to Bonds 2 years a go but what is your prediction? That he will have a .450 OBP? Even going in the .380-.400 range is being extremenly optimistic.

Say what you want about collusion but I think the fact that nobody signe dhim last year does damage to your belief that he is still anything close to what he was 2-3-4 years ago

by Rays4242 on Jan 2, 2009 6:41 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

"(YES hip surgery for a pro athlete in his mid 40s is a bad indicator no matter what your man crush says)."

Who is my man crush, Bonds? Please, everyone knows I hurt myself for Upton and Sonnanstine.

by R.J. Anderson on Jan 2, 2009 6:26 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

You love for Johnny Mac is greater

Brad Ziegler had a scoreless inning streak. Brad Ziegler had not met BJ Upton.

by P Brady on Jan 2, 2009 7:12 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Sign him to a minor league deal. It's better than the other options he has right now.

I don’t doubt Bonds could still be an asset to the Rays lineup. At the very least I think he’s at least equal to what Floyd was last year, probably better though.

by floridaroar on Jan 2, 2009 3:13 PM EST reply actions   0 recs

I agree with that

If everythign else falls through and we are looking at Bonds, Alou, Anderson, and Griffey then Bonds becomes as good an option as anyone else

Having Bonds hit behind Longo wouldnt be a terrible thing, regardless of how uncertain we are that Bonds can produce at a high level

by Rays4242 on Jan 2, 2009 3:23 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

This is interesting

I dont think it would be a bad idea to toss around if he were our DH. My only problem is I want Upton, Longoria and Pena all in the top 4 if possible. I hate moving one of them to 5th, but with Aki locked in at leadoff that might happen. So you could either put Crawford or Bonds/DH in the 2 spot or you can bat Upton-2, Pena-3, Longo-4, Bonds-5 and give Longo some lefty protection

Or 1-Aki, 2- Bonds, 3- Upton, 4- Pena, 5- Longoria, 6- Crawford

Tough decisions but fun to think about

by Rays4242 on Jan 2, 2009 6:49 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Lineup order really doesn't matter

Brad Ziegler had a scoreless inning streak. Brad Ziegler had not met BJ Upton.

by P Brady on Jan 2, 2009 7:13 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

It matters enough...

Not as significantly as some may think or emphasize, but it does matter.

by tallyray on Jan 2, 2009 11:07 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Put Upton ahead of Barry, get some speed on the bases.

Between Barry’s keen batting eye and the threat of Upton stealing a base opposing pitchers would have nightmares.

1-Aki, 2- Upton, 3- Bonds, 4- Pena, 5- Longoria, 6- Crawford

by floridaroar on Jan 2, 2009 7:21 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Why are you talking about getting Bonds...

It won’t happen.

Top Josh Paul Pornos- Big Navi Stroking, 2pitchers1cup, BJ to the Balls, Riggans Your Thingans

by SRQman on Jan 2, 2009 7:08 PM EST reply actions   0 recs

The argument against Bonds

rests on 3 fallacious premises. All the rest, about the barcolounger and his nasty attitude are just noise and have no relevance to any argument about his prowess as a player. So even assuming he was guilty of using them (still not proven), and ignoring that in his last years he was a great player and was tested regularly with only negative results. What are the arguments?

1. Steroids were illegal and therefore he was unethical in that he was breaking the law.
  This is the weakest argument as far as his baseball performance is concerned, but has some merit in arguments about whether he should be allowed to continue in the game. The problem with it is its lack of a sense of proportion. Let’s agree that there is a serious ethical question when anyone breaks the law. But all laws are not of equal significance. Baseball gladly welcomes wife beaters, drunk drivers and diverse other lawbreakers, crimes far more serious than steroid use. I bet many of us know people who break the speed limit or smoke pot, but who we still associate with and even admire for other traits. At most, regardless of what penalties the law allows, drug use is a misdemeanor, although I would argue it is not even that since in my view it is fundamentally a health issue not a moral lapse. Only those trying to bolster an otherwise unsupportable argument against Bonds can use this kind of legal issue to provide a facade of moral concern.

2. Steroid use was banned by baseball and thus using it demands punishment.
  This is one of the more hypocritical assertions of the anti-Bonds faction. First, there is no rule if there is no enforcement and particularly if there is not even any means of enforcement were the will there. The entire argument is based on an obscure commissioner pronouncement that was neither heeded nor given any teeth. During the entire period, there was no testing, no penalties for anyone and little concern over the issue. On the contrary, the baseball establishment not only actively opposed any investigation of charges that steroids were routinely used but encouraged their use in diverse ways.
  Even more hypocritical is the barrage of references to sacred records that were set by players known to have used all sorts of illegal performance enhancers including amphetamines without which it is unlikely that they could have performed as well as they did. This may be the most infuriating hypocrisy of all, that Mays, Aaron, Koufax and most players of the 1960s get a pass when they were as routinely using drugs just as the steroid users are accused of doing.

3. Steroids give players an unfair advantage so that their performances are suspect.
  If the first two arguments lack merit, this one becomes meaningless also. Even without that however, while there may have been some advantage gained (as there has been from legal supplements, improved equipment and training facilities, better medical care such as Tommy John surgery, increased use of eyeglasses and many other improvements that provide advantages lacking to earlier generations), abundant research has failed to demonstrate either what it is in relation to the particular skills needed for baseball or to what extent it provides real advantage. Nor does a review of the many players, both hitters and pitchers, who have been implicated in steroid use provide any evidence that there was a real advantage or that there were not other factors (juiced balls? juiced bats?) that were not more important. Simply repeating the claims of improved muscle mass or any other physical effects has little bearing on whether it actually helped hitters do better, especially as they often were up against pitchers also juiced.

I know this thread is focused on whether Bonds is a good alternative for DH in TB, not about the larger issues, but I think once we dispose of the irrational anti-Bonds hysteria it becomes clearer whether other factors (age, injury, performance projections) make a positive or negative case without the irrelevant noise surrounding him.

by bobr on Jan 2, 2009 7:11 PM EST reply actions   0 recs

I think if you get rid of all the anti-Bonds hysteria, like you said...

Signing him would be a classic Friedman-esque move. He’s a buy-low candidate that could reap huge rewards, potentially like the 2007 signing of Pena. And even if he flops, it’s not like it would most likely cost a whole lot to sign him right now.

The problem is, I don’t think front offices are willing to ignore the Bonds hysteria. Baseball games are not played in a vacuum so while his signing might make sense from a baseball perspective, it’s debatable about what other effects his signing will have on a team. Will fans still come out, especially for a team with such a new fanbase? Will the national media trash the Rays for signing Bonds, tarnishing their regutation and again potentially hurting their fanbase? Will the steroid controversy spring up again in full force with the Rays’ clubhouse now the center of the hurricane? We can rationalize the steroid craziness here and talk away that hysteria, but that doesn’t mean that the media and the average, everyday fan is going to feel the same way.

Personally, I don’t know what to think about some of these things. I’d like to think that none of these things would happen, but we’ve seen how crazy the media goes over the whole steroids debate. It’s my guess that since the Rays are so new to the national scene and since we really need increased attendence next year, Friendman and Co. haven’t wanted to risk bringing in any potentially negative press for the time being.

"I never threw an illegal pitch. The trouble is, once in a while I toss one that ain't never been seen by this generation." - Satchel Paige

by Steve Slowinski on Jan 2, 2009 10:05 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

baseball fans dont care that he broke the law

and how does the fact that 1 and 2 are irrelevant (I agree with you) mean that point 3 has to also be irrelevant? This argument that people hide behind that since no comprehensive study has been done by a group of government appointed scientists to deem steroids beneficial to baseball players, than we really dont know. That is incredibly naive at best. We know what steroids do to athletes bodies, they make them bigger stronger and better. Its not chess its baseball, and muscles are used. We know exactly how much better steroids make players, we have great case studies named Mark McGwire, Sammy Sosa, Brady Anderson, Ken Caminiti, Pudge Rodriguez, Rafael Palmeiro, Barry Bonds, Brett Boone, Jason Giambi, Juan Gonzalez. We can see just how much better steroids made them by the differences in their production when they were known to be using and not using.

Why do players take steroids if they dont make them better? Can ANYONE answer that? Why would they risk liver cancer, shrunk balls, cardiovascular disease, blood clotting, the list goes on and on. Why would Jose Canseco tell us that he took them and they gave him all his fame and fortune and he deserved none of it? Why would he admit he was a fringe MLer who wouldve never been good enough to make it if not for steroids?

Your arguments arent the arguments against him, nobody cares he broke the law and it isnt one of the valid arguments against signing him as our DH when we are able to sign someone better…

1) he is 45

2) he just had hip surgery

3) no one has seen him swing a bat in well over a year

4) the FBI is trying to put him in prison

5) the numbers he put up between the ages of 35-41 can not be used when evaluating him as a 45 year old who isnt on steroids and HGH and designer drugs anymore . They are 2 completely different players.

and the best argument against signing him is none of the above. It is because there is almost no reason why we shouldnt be able to fill that DH hole better than with 45 year old Bonds

First of all the first 2 arguments have nothing to do with why Bonds should or shouldnt be a Ray. Davey Martinez has as much ‘known’ evidence that he took steroids as Bonds did and that is a non issue here. Martinez is well liked and a good bench coach. I personally also dont care what people say baout his attitude. I defended this guy for years saying the media makes him into a villian all because Barry doesnt like the media and never has because of how they treated his father when he was growing up.

But how do points 1 and 2 being irrelevant, which I agree about, mean that being off steroids NOW shouldnt be an argument against Bonds? Points 1 and 2 have absolutely nothing to do with point 3. Steroids make you better, and they also do damage to your body. Barry’s not on them anymore, so we have to assume a few things from what we know about the drug…1) chronic steroid use over the course of years will effect a 45 year olds body whos off of them, 2) the same production cant be expected

by Rays4242 on Jan 3, 2009 12:07 AM EST up reply actions   0 recs

What about

his 43 year old season where he was very effective by all standards in a pitchers park with a relatively weak lineup. You said 35-41, whats so bad about analyzing 2007 for data. If we can throw out a track record as long and sterling (despite skeptics believing it was done with steroids) as Bonds then why do we look at track record at all. The argument your putting doesn’t focus on the ethical aspect, it focuses primarily on the physical. If Julio Franco could put up wOBAS of .361, .360, and .351 at 44, 45, and 46 then why can’t Bonds put up a .365 at 45? Because Julio Franco is a better player than Bonds?

by Navi's_Navy on Jan 3, 2009 12:15 AM EST up reply actions   0 recs

The last argument becomes irrelevant because

if there is nothing unethical about using steroids then it does not matter if it is true that they provide an advantage. It would be like saying that taking vitamins assists players so we should not count their records if it is proven they use them.

As for why players take steroids, it is like asking why do players pray before going to the plate. Many might doubt it really helps them, but they do it anyway. The fact that people do things they think will help does not mean they really do. They may be ill-informed. They may be getting bad advice. They may have misinformed trainers. They may be desperate and ready to try anything. They may see it as part of a complicated regimen of training, just a small feature of an overall effort to improve.

As for the fact that we know what steroids do to the body, that may be true, but we do not know how that translates into actual performance which is quite a different thing. Bigger and stronger does not mean better hitter. And again, there are many other factors that may have affected performance in the late 1990s. There have also been studies indicating that balls were juiced. Why are people so certain there is a single cause that precludes others? Or that trumps the others? Single cause answers are ordinarily misleading and are only useful as a means of demonizing someone.

It is also unfortunate that there is little accompanying discussion of how a disciplined program of nutrition and workouts contributed to the excellence of players like Bonds. The common misconception seems to be that players simply were injected and suddenly turned into supermen rather than the far more reasonable assumption that even if steroids did assist in healing or building muscles it only became a factor when combined with strenuous programs of exercise, nutrition and workout regimens. While you list some players whose play apparently improved significantly while on steroids, there are far more whose performances showed no improvement at all. And again, the coincidence of improvement is just that, coincidence, and might just as likely have been due to factors unrelated to steroids.

As a matter of fact, in some cases, Giambi for example, he continued to hit for about the same power after he stopped using steroids. And I can point to numerous examples of players who had strange power spikes in their careers when there can be no suspicion of steroid use. I have made long lists before so I won’t repeat it, but it includes Yastrzemski, Musial, Kluszewski and many more.

As for whether we should sign him, I am not commenting on that specifically. There may be good reasons not to, although I tend to think he is so special that he is worth taking a chance. I am simply trying to sweep away the prejudices that might stand in the way of an honest appraisal of the question. And I disagree with your view that those, in my view irrelevant factors, do not color discussions. I think they impede rational discussion, especially when included with nonsensical character slanders.

by bobr on Jan 3, 2009 8:43 AM EST up reply actions   0 recs

The other issue is baggage...

I, like many on here, think Bonds would be a great signing in terms of actual on field production. I also see why teams are not willing to take the chance.

Whatever team takes a chance on Barry Bonds also invites a media circus into town. You’d almost have to hire an all new PR staff. The Rays wouldn’t be that up and coming team the every likes. They’d be the team that took the win at all cost approach and signed Bonds. Every detail of every action that Bonds makes or the team makes towards Bonds would be scrutinized every night.

Imagine if the Rays signed Bonds last year like many were hoping for. The Rays wouldn’t have been a feel good story. They wouldn’t have been the likable underdogs. Carl Crawford wouldn’t have been a superhero on the cover of SI. It would have been all about how Barry Bonds saved a floundering franchise and how the Rays sacrificed their integrity to win.

I don’t believe any of it and then Bonds is unfairly ostracized from the rest of the players who may have taken PEDs, but the fact is that signing Bonds would chance the entire face of the franchise in a split second.

by tallyray on Jan 3, 2009 10:24 AM EST up reply actions   0 recs

While there is an obvious economic impact

Is the justification of the national media that important? If we had won it all with Bonds (no one knows) then we would have won. All the other teams would’ve had the same opportunity, but they passed it up in fear that the national media would ostricize them.

What is so different about Bonds now than in 2007? If nobody really hated the Giants for having Bonds why couldn’t we, why does it make it a horrible act against the baseball gods when we sign him?

by Navi's_Navy on Jan 3, 2009 1:42 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

People are going to believe whatever the local and national media tells them anyways.

Look at the idea that the Rays were a team without a superstar. Crawford and Kazmir were and are pretty well known amongst even casual baseball fans. Are they superstars? Well, I’m not really one to judge, but if they aren’t that’s because the national media didn’t push them before last season. Both made all-star appearances, with Crawford playing a rather big role in the 2007 ASG.

The media declined to focus on how smart and progressive the Rays front office was, instead focusing on how Joe Maddon taught the players how to win along with Cliff Floyd and Troy Percival. The media also said the Rays were flukes and that they would collapse under the pressure of October, and when they did not they claimed they were ignorant to the circumstances.

I suppose what I’m saying is, the media is rather annoying when it comes to baseball analysis.

by R.J. Anderson on Jan 3, 2009 6:20 PM EST up reply actions   1 recs

Terrible annoying...

And also very uninformed. That doesn’t change the fact that they still drive public perception.

Nothing sums it up more than the whole BJ Upton thing last year. Sure he did some questionable things, yet the media’s constant focus on the negative magnified the issue to a ridiculous level.

To address navi’s navy, the media and public perception doesn’t matter at all to me, but I imagine it matters quite a bit to the front office and public relations of the Rays. It’s just a questionable move to bring in someone so disliked when there are better options still available.

by tallyray on Jan 4, 2009 5:47 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

I would be very surprised if the Rays signed him.

If they did not last year, I cannot imagine them doing it now when there are more reasons to avoid him. But I also think that if he were signed and if the team did well with him, all the other issues, while real enough, would become merely tangents and not terribly important to any but a few diehard prigs.

by bobr on Jan 3, 2009 5:09 PM EST reply actions   0 recs

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