DRaysBay: An SB Nation Community

Navigation: Jump to content areas:


Sports blogs for fans, by fans.
New Blog: Sounder At Heart for Seattle Sounders Fans!

See Craw Hit, See Craw Run

By batted ball types:

BABIP 2008 Career
GB 0.217 0.278
FB 0.086 0.14
LD 0.711 0.735

Despite skittish walk rates, Crawford's slash stats have always been decent thanks to the aegis of his high batting average on balls in play. In 2008, he beat out less grounders, had less flyballs land, and had a few extra liners caught. This reinforces what we expected before while giving us some reassurance that Carl's ability to hit didn't suddenly disappear. Which brings me to a point raised in the Crawford community projection post: will C.C. break out this year?

LFers with at least 500 innings
Player UZR
Crawford 21.4
Harris 14.4
Damon 8.4
Lewis 7
Anderson 6.2
Blanco 5.8
Scott 5.1
Jackson 4.6
Holliday 4.3
Boggs 2.8

That question has been asked more recently than the one where you genuflect, but it's worth discussing again. Crawford is -- amazingly -- only 27 and the best defensive left fielder in the game. He has his hiccups like everyone else in the lineup, and at times I put too much weight on his lack of plate discipline. He is what he is, and that's an amazingly valuable commodity that we've began to take for granted.

Name SB
Gary Redus 322
Dave Concepcion 321
Luis Polonia 321
Darby O'Brien 321
Red Murray 321
Steve Finley 320
Tony Gwynn 319
Billy Shindle 318
Bobby Abreu 318
Larry Bowa 318
Jose Cruz 317
Hans Lobert 316
Jake Beckley 315
Ichiro Suzuki 315
Brady Anderson 315
Andre Dawson 314
Claudell Washington 312
Buck Herzog 312
Vada Pinson 305
Reggie Sanders 304
Bobby Lowe 302
Carl Crawford 302

We're looking at a guy who hit the ball the hardest of his career, and yet had the worst luck of his career within one season. Offensively, Carl's going to bounce back next season, and he's going to bounce back hard. Depending on where Manny Ramirez lands and how Matt Holliday adapts to the American League, Crawford has a legitimate chance to be the best left fielder in baseball next season, at which point it might be time to start extension talks. 

0 recs  |  Comment 46 comments |

Story-email Email Printer Print

Comments

Display:

The thing that scares me about Crawford

is his biggest value is on defense and his speed. Both decline with age. Plus you add trop’s turf and the fact that he’s already had some leg issues and that raises a flag.

I’d still open up talks about an extension because for the next 3-5 years he will be in his physical prime, but I’d be weary about anything after that.

by Tommy Rancel on Jan 2, 2009 1:34 PM EST reply actions   0 recs

How much you think he would want for 5 years?

Which is a nice number because with the 2 years that he already has left, we would have him for another 7….until age 34, when his speed should be much less impressive.

Evan Longoria and David Price - the fight for my heart

by joeybw on Jan 2, 2009 1:37 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

I value him a lot

but would we give him 15 mil a year for 5 years? Especially, when we need to lock up Upton, Garza, Navarro, etc

Evan Longoria and David Price - the fight for my heart

by joeybw on Jan 2, 2009 1:39 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Are we really giving him five additional years though?

I would think you’d work off his base, extend him for an extra two or three, and pay him ~13-15 million for those seasons.

Navarro is entering arbitration. I can see him signing long-term for cheap though.

by R.J. Anderson on Jan 2, 2009 1:41 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

3/39 would be nice

I agree on Navarro being cheap. Garza would be cheap if we sign him very soon, Upton is gonna break the bank.

Evan Longoria and David Price - the fight for my heart

by joeybw on Jan 2, 2009 1:43 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Im still kind of torn on Navarro

First off, his weight still bothers me. Sure he got in great shape before spring training and everything, but lets face it, he’s still fat. I know there arent many slender catchers and all, but still. Jaso looks like a tall muscular beast compared to Navarro, which he is.

Also, his splits are so odd. In 07, Navarro sucked in the first half and then was pretty good in the second half. Last year, amazing in the first half, kind ehhh in the second half. Maybe he really has turned the corner but a full season in the majors was taking a toll on him. Plus I believe he had a hammy problem in the middle of the year. Id like to see one more full season before we start talking longterm.

by BossmanJunior333 on Jan 2, 2009 1:54 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

I'm not concerned about Navi's weight

Dude is a catcher. His BABIP bounced back from .253 in 07 to .321 in 08 and his K% dropped 6%. Both good signs.

One of the things I remember about Navi when we acquired him was he was supposed to have good place discipline. His BB% has been around 8% the past two years and his O-Swing has been around 23. If he can his O-Swing down and his Walk up that would be excellent.

by Tommy Rancel on Jan 2, 2009 2:10 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

I'm also not concerned about his weight.

I just really enjoy me some good fat jokes.

I was concerned that his awful season last year may have had something to do with his weight. I feel that I was correct to an extent because he was really heavy last year; he’s still heavy, but he’s showing that he’s quite comfortable at his current weight.

by kericr on Jan 2, 2009 2:14 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

There's some game theory with Carl/Desmond.

Desmond staying healthy is an outlier at this point, so ideally you want him staying healthy for the next two seasons before you put him in left. If he stays healthy next year, do you attempt to re-sign Carl, or do you wait and take the draft picks? What if Desmond gets hurt in 2010? Heck, should we even worry about Desmond when thinking of Carl?

by R.J. Anderson on Jan 2, 2009 1:40 PM EST reply actions   0 recs

This....

And even if Desmond Jennings is not the stud we think he could be, is the gap between a late 20s-early 30s Crawford and Fernando Perez that wide when we are measuring speed and defense? Perez would be much cheaper in 2011.

by Tommy Rancel on Jan 2, 2009 1:44 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Also from now until CC is scheduled to leave in 2011

We will know alot more about names like Ty Morrison, D.J. Jones etc. They may not be ready by then, but we will have a better idea about them.

by Tommy Rancel on Jan 2, 2009 1:57 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

See Bitching does pay off

Im glad to see that me complaining that everyone was undervalueing and taking Crawford for granted resulted in this post (in my mind at least haha).

by BossmanJunior333 on Jan 2, 2009 1:45 PM EST reply actions   0 recs

So can we use Crawfords knees as solid reasoning for a new stadium?

“Look, if we don’t build a brand new outdoor open air stadium with natural grass, CC’s not going to be as good as he could be.”

Frankly, I do fear the leg problems, especially with him being as young as he is. Personally, if CC doesn’t break out this year, I’m done asking ‘when will he’, and exchanging it with ‘why didn’t he’. This will be his 8th season in the majors coming up; he should be better by now.

by kericr on Jan 2, 2009 2:01 PM EST reply actions   0 recs

It could also be that DelMonte and Tropicana are market competitors

Last year he looked like he was trying to be a little more patient at the plate, he worked 30 walks out of 473 plate appearances, that’s the highest ratio in his career, but yeah I’d like to see what his stat line looks like with 60 walks in a season.

by kericr on Jan 2, 2009 2:11 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

wow,

never thought i’d see some of those words ever written by RJ…

by davidsmarch on Jan 2, 2009 2:12 PM EST reply actions   0 recs

Carl Crawford is 27 years old next season

historically that has been the magic age for ballplayer development. It seems to be the age where an overwhelming amount of hitters breakout. Its so crazy that Crawford is just now 27 years old.

http://www.scoutingbook.com/27/

^^this link on this site shows every player who is 27 next year

Some otehr notable 27 year olds….

Ben Zobrist
Justin Ruggiano

Josh Hamilton
Mike Aviles
Yunel Escobar
Robinson Cano
Andre Ethier
Shin-Soo Choo
Alexei Ramirez
Ian Kinsler
Conor Jackson
David Murphy
Aaron Hill
Ryan Garko
Adrian Gonzalez
Curtis Granderson
Grady Sizemore
Ryan Doumit
Corey Hart
Jorge Cantu
Kelly Johnson
JJ Hardy
Jhonny Peralta
Mark Tehan
Ben Francisco
Kevin Kouzmanoff
Ricki Weeks
Mike Napoli
Carlos Quentin
Brandon Phillips

man there’s a lot of good 27 year old this year.

by Rays4242 on Jan 2, 2009 3:03 PM EST reply actions   0 recs

Completely tangential, but...

I can’t wait to see what Grady Sizemore does this upcoming year. The guy is a monster.

"I never threw an illegal pitch. The trouble is, once in a while I toss one that ain't never been seen by this generation." - Satchel Paige

by Steve Slowinski on Jan 2, 2009 3:43 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

I remember a while back I jokingly said that eventually BA would end up bein a skill the market undervalues

I’ve actually been doing a lot of thinking about what the next market inefficiency smart teams exploit is going to be, and I’m starting to think high BABIP guys may be it.

by acblue on Jan 2, 2009 5:00 PM EST reply actions   0 recs

How much does CC's arm strength hurt him?

The new THT outfield arms article should be out anytime to shed more light on the issue, but how much does CC’s lack of arm affect his overall value? I’m not trying to overstate it, just wondering what others think.

by tallyray on Jan 2, 2009 11:12 PM EST reply actions   0 recs

He seems well below average at the casual look.

But I imagine the speed to which he gets to the ball has a pretty big impact as well.

by tallyray on Jan 3, 2009 9:19 AM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Comments For This Post Are Closed


User Tools

Founded in 2005. DRaysBay is home to "progressive statistical analysis and reasoned argument."
Start posting about the Rays »

Join SB Nation and dive into communities focused on all your favorite teams.

FanPosts

Community blog posts and discussion.

Recommended FanPosts

Srq2_small
The Ice Cream Paint Job
Zorilla_small
OTTOTD 10/29: Raymondo's Cliff Lee Poo Sandwich Edition
Small
Fitting in

Recent FanPosts

Avatarpic-l_small
OTTOTD 11/9 - They're still the Succaneers to me edition
Remer_small
The Greatest (Devil) Rays to Ever Wear... 33
Remer_small
The Greatest (Devil) Rays to Ever Wear... #34
Remer_small
The Greatest (Devil) Rays to Ever Wear... #35
Remer_small
The Greatest (Devil) Rays to Ever Wear... #36
Mushroomray_small
OTTOTD 11/06/09: Dicktowel Weekends
Remer_small
The Greatest (Devil) Rays to Ever Wear... #37
Pic
Top 30 Starts of 2009 - Part 5
Remer_small
The Greatest (Devil) Rays to Ever Wear... #38
Charzissou_small
OTTOTD 11/5: Back to Normal Edition

+ New FanPost All FanPosts >

FanShots

Quick hits of video, photos, quotes, chats, links and lists that you find around the web.

Recent FanShots

The King of Cork -- woo hoo
Fangraphs Minor Review of the '09 Rays
MLB Network to televise AFL's Rising Stars Game
Topps honors Desmond Jennings and Alexander Colome
Dan Sileo is suspended!
Former All-Star 2B Freddy Sanchez signs 2 year, 12M extension with the Giants
FanShots - Raw Charge - the static cling that brings Tampa Bay Lightning fans together
One year ago Today
Want AFL Scouting Reports?
The Rangers have announced that hitting coach Rudy Jaramillo has declined...

+ New FanShot All FanShots >


VPs of Baseball Operations

Nando_small R.J. Anderson

Raysring1_small Tommy Rancel

Zorilla_small FreeZorilla

Price_small Erik Hahmann

Ticket Account Executive

Rays_small Steve Slowinski