See Craw Hit, See Craw Run
By batted ball types:
| BABIP | 2008 | Career |
| GB | 0.217 | 0.278 |
| FB | 0.086 | 0.14 |
| LD | 0.711 | 0.735 |
Despite skittish walk rates, Crawford's slash stats have always been decent thanks to the aegis of his high batting average on balls in play. In 2008, he beat out less grounders, had less flyballs land, and had a few extra liners caught. This reinforces what we expected before while giving us some reassurance that Carl's ability to hit didn't suddenly disappear. Which brings me to a point raised in the Crawford community projection post: will C.C. break out this year?
| Player | UZR |
| Crawford | 21.4 |
| Harris | 14.4 |
| Damon | 8.4 |
| Lewis | 7 |
| Anderson | 6.2 |
| Blanco | 5.8 |
| Scott | 5.1 |
| Jackson | 4.6 |
| Holliday | 4.3 |
| Boggs | 2.8 |
That question has been asked more recently than the one where you genuflect, but it's worth discussing again. Crawford is -- amazingly -- only 27 and the best defensive left fielder in the game. He has his hiccups like everyone else in the lineup, and at times I put too much weight on his lack of plate discipline. He is what he is, and that's an amazingly valuable commodity that we've began to take for granted.
| Name | SB |
| Gary Redus | 322 |
| Dave Concepcion | 321 |
| Luis Polonia | 321 |
| Darby O'Brien | 321 |
| Red Murray | 321 |
| Steve Finley | 320 |
| Tony Gwynn | 319 |
| Billy Shindle | 318 |
| Bobby Abreu | 318 |
| Larry Bowa | 318 |
| Jose Cruz | 317 |
| Hans Lobert | 316 |
| Jake Beckley | 315 |
| Ichiro Suzuki | 315 |
| Brady Anderson | 315 |
| Andre Dawson | 314 |
| Claudell Washington | 312 |
| Buck Herzog | 312 |
| Vada Pinson | 305 |
| Reggie Sanders | 304 |
| Bobby Lowe | 302 |
| Carl Crawford | 302 |
We're looking at a guy who hit the ball the hardest of his career, and yet had the worst luck of his career within one season. Offensively, Carl's going to bounce back next season, and he's going to bounce back hard. Depending on where Manny Ramirez lands and how Matt Holliday adapts to the American League, Crawford has a legitimate chance to be the best left fielder in baseball next season, at which point it might be time to start extension talks.
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46 comments
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Comments
Players had cooler names back in the day
Claudell, Buck, Vada
by Erik Hahmann on Jan 2, 2009 1:29 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
The thing that scares me about Crawford
is his biggest value is on defense and his speed. Both decline with age. Plus you add trop’s turf and the fact that he’s already had some leg issues and that raises a flag.
I’d still open up talks about an extension because for the next 3-5 years he will be in his physical prime, but I’d be weary about anything after that.
by Tommy Rancel on Jan 2, 2009 1:34 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
How much you think he would want for 5 years?
Which is a nice number because with the 2 years that he already has left, we would have him for another 7….until age 34, when his speed should be much less impressive.
Evan Longoria and David Price - the fight for my heart
by joeybw on Jan 2, 2009 1:37 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
He's worth ~13-15 million per season. Depending on how you value him heading forward.
by R.J. Anderson on Jan 2, 2009 1:38 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
I value him a lot
but would we give him 15 mil a year for 5 years? Especially, when we need to lock up Upton, Garza, Navarro, etc
Evan Longoria and David Price - the fight for my heart
by joeybw on Jan 2, 2009 1:39 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Are we really giving him five additional years though?
I would think you’d work off his base, extend him for an extra two or three, and pay him ~13-15 million for those seasons.
Navarro is entering arbitration. I can see him signing long-term for cheap though.
by R.J. Anderson on Jan 2, 2009 1:41 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
3/39 would be nice
I agree on Navarro being cheap. Garza would be cheap if we sign him very soon, Upton is gonna break the bank.
Evan Longoria and David Price - the fight for my heart
by joeybw on Jan 2, 2009 1:43 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Im still kind of torn on Navarro
First off, his weight still bothers me. Sure he got in great shape before spring training and everything, but lets face it, he’s still fat. I know there arent many slender catchers and all, but still. Jaso looks like a tall muscular beast compared to Navarro, which he is.
Also, his splits are so odd. In 07, Navarro sucked in the first half and then was pretty good in the second half. Last year, amazing in the first half, kind ehhh in the second half. Maybe he really has turned the corner but a full season in the majors was taking a toll on him. Plus I believe he had a hammy problem in the middle of the year. Id like to see one more full season before we start talking longterm.
by BossmanJunior333 on Jan 2, 2009 1:54 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
I'm all in favor of changing the shape of the bases to look like donuts.
I love that fat basthad.
by kericr on Jan 2, 2009 2:02 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
I'm not concerned about Navi's weight
Dude is a catcher. His BABIP bounced back from .253 in 07 to .321 in 08 and his K% dropped 6%. Both good signs.
One of the things I remember about Navi when we acquired him was he was supposed to have good place discipline. His BB% has been around 8% the past two years and his O-Swing has been around 23. If he can his O-Swing down and his Walk up that would be excellent.
by Tommy Rancel on Jan 2, 2009 2:10 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
I'm also not concerned about his weight.
I just really enjoy me some good fat jokes.
I was concerned that his awful season last year may have had something to do with his weight. I feel that I was correct to an extent because he was really heavy last year; he’s still heavy, but he’s showing that he’s quite comfortable at his current weight.
by kericr on Jan 2, 2009 2:14 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
There's some game theory with Carl/Desmond.
Desmond staying healthy is an outlier at this point, so ideally you want him staying healthy for the next two seasons before you put him in left. If he stays healthy next year, do you attempt to re-sign Carl, or do you wait and take the draft picks? What if Desmond gets hurt in 2010? Heck, should we even worry about Desmond when thinking of Carl?
by R.J. Anderson on Jan 2, 2009 1:40 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
This....
And even if Desmond Jennings is not the stud we think he could be, is the gap between a late 20s-early 30s Crawford and Fernando Perez that wide when we are measuring speed and defense? Perez would be much cheaper in 2011.
by Tommy Rancel on Jan 2, 2009 1:44 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Also from now until CC is scheduled to leave in 2011
We will know alot more about names like Ty Morrison, D.J. Jones etc. They may not be ready by then, but we will have a better idea about them.
by Tommy Rancel on Jan 2, 2009 1:57 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
See Bitching does pay off
Im glad to see that me complaining that everyone was undervalueing and taking Crawford for granted resulted in this post (in my mind at least haha).
by BossmanJunior333 on Jan 2, 2009 1:45 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
So can we use Crawfords knees as solid reasoning for a new stadium?
“Look, if we don’t build a brand new outdoor open air stadium with natural grass, CC’s not going to be as good as he could be.”
Frankly, I do fear the leg problems, especially with him being as young as he is. Personally, if CC doesn’t break out this year, I’m done asking ‘when will he’, and exchanging it with ‘why didn’t he’. This will be his 8th season in the majors coming up; he should be better by now.
by kericr on Jan 2, 2009 2:01 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
I think the answer would be lack of plate discipline, which makes Crawford extremely frustrating.
by R.J. Anderson on Jan 2, 2009 2:05 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
It could also be that DelMonte and Tropicana are market competitors
Last year he looked like he was trying to be a little more patient at the plate, he worked 30 walks out of 473 plate appearances, that’s the highest ratio in his career, but yeah I’d like to see what his stat line looks like with 60 walks in a season.
by kericr on Jan 2, 2009 2:11 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
You know what Crawford's middle name is? Delmonte. No joke.
by Erik Hahmann on Jan 2, 2009 2:16 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
The REST of his stat line...
But I snickered.
by kericr on Jan 2, 2009 2:24 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
I was going to Photoshop that into his statline, but that's excessive.
by R.J. Anderson on Jan 2, 2009 2:26 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Just a word of note: Moderate safesearch + GIS for "excessive" still equals NSFW.
Frankly, I’m starting to get tired of inadvertently inventing new ways to get yourself fired using GIS.
by kericr on Jan 2, 2009 2:31 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
wow,
never thought i’d see some of those words ever written by RJ…
by davidsmarch on Jan 2, 2009 2:12 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
I'm a big fan of Vida Blue
Not just because it’s the sweet name for a band too.
by rglass44 on Jan 2, 2009 2:49 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Carl Crawford is 27 years old next season
historically that has been the magic age for ballplayer development. It seems to be the age where an overwhelming amount of hitters breakout. Its so crazy that Crawford is just now 27 years old.
http://www.scoutingbook.com/27/
^^this link on this site shows every player who is 27 next year
Some otehr notable 27 year olds….
Ben Zobrist
Justin Ruggiano
Josh Hamilton
Mike Aviles
Yunel Escobar
Robinson Cano
Andre Ethier
Shin-Soo Choo
Alexei Ramirez
Ian Kinsler
Conor Jackson
David Murphy
Aaron Hill
Ryan Garko
Adrian Gonzalez
Curtis Granderson
Grady Sizemore
Ryan Doumit
Corey Hart
Jorge Cantu
Kelly Johnson
JJ Hardy
Jhonny Peralta
Mark Tehan
Ben Francisco
Kevin Kouzmanoff
Ricki Weeks
Mike Napoli
Carlos Quentin
Brandon Phillips
man there’s a lot of good 27 year old this year.
by Rays4242 on Jan 2, 2009 3:03 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
Completely tangential, but...
I can’t wait to see what Grady Sizemore does this upcoming year. The guy is a monster.
"I never threw an illegal pitch. The trouble is, once in a while I toss one that ain't never been seen by this generation." - Satchel Paige
by Steve Slowinski on Jan 2, 2009 3:43 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
I remember a while back I jokingly said that eventually BA would end up bein a skill the market undervalues
I’ve actually been doing a lot of thinking about what the next market inefficiency smart teams exploit is going to be, and I’m starting to think high BABIP guys may be it.
by acblue on Jan 2, 2009 5:00 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
How much does CC's arm strength hurt him?
The new THT outfield arms article should be out anytime to shed more light on the issue, but how much does CC’s lack of arm affect his overall value? I’m not trying to overstate it, just wondering what others think.
by tallyray on Jan 2, 2009 11:12 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
Lately he's been near average.
http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/stats/players/index.php?lastName=crawford
We’ll see what 2008 says, but I don’t think it affects it all too much.
by R.J. Anderson on Jan 2, 2009 11:14 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
He seems well below average at the casual look.
But I imagine the speed to which he gets to the ball has a pretty big impact as well.
by tallyray on Jan 3, 2009 9:19 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

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