More on Arbitration and Dioner Navarro

by Tommy Rancel on Jan 23, 2009 12:25 PM EST

Back to what is "fair value" for Dioner Navarro. Navarro made around 400k last year and I thought the Rays offer of $2.1 million is a pretty nice jump for a 24 year old catcher. But then I noticed that John Buck was arbitration eligible for the first time in 2007 and received a $2.2 million dollar contract and avoided the arbitration hearing. Yes, that John Buck who has a career OBP of less than .300.

Again, I'm dumbing down the numbers for arbitration argument purposes.

Buck	BA	OBP	SLG	OPS	CS%
2007	0.222	0.308	0.429	0.737	17
Navarro	BA	OBP	SLG	OPS	CS%
2008	0.295	0.349	0.407	0.756	35.7

Navarro wins handily in BA and despite Buck's higher SLG%, Navi still wins on OPS. He also more than doubles Buck's CS% and has the argument of being named an All Star.

However, because we are discussing arbitration we have to look at career numbers. Here are their career numbers at the point of eligibility.

	BA	OBP	SLG	OPS	CS%
Navarro	0.263	0.327	0.376	0.703	30.75
Buck	0.236	0.295	0.410	0.705	30.75

Again, Buck has more pop in his bat, there is no argument there. His boost in SLG carries his OPS to just a tick over Navarro's. However, Navarro's BA is almost 30 points higher and he is on-base 32% more. Also, Buck had racked up 349 career strikeouts at this point while Navarro has just 188. Age is also a consideration. Buck was 27 by 2007, while Navarro is still 24. I don't see anyway you can justify paying Buck more than Navarro, but Dayton Moore is no Andrew Friedman.

The final comparison I wanted to make is Yadier Molina. Like Navi, Molina is a young catcher who has had mixed success at the plate. Molina was arbitration eligible for the first time after 2007. He was coming off a pretty solid season following pretty awful one. From 2006 to 2007, his OPS jumped 113 points . Sound similar? It should. Navarro did Molina one better by uping his OPS 114 points from 2007 to 2008 and while Molina is the better defensive catcher, Navarro is still 50 points higher in OPS.

Molina	BA	OBP	SLG	OPS	CS%
2006	0.216	0.274	0.321	0.595	50
2007	0.275	0.340	0.368	0.708	30.6

Navarro	BA	OBP	SLG	OPS	CS%
2007	0.227	0.286	0.356	0.642	25.3
2008	0.295	0.349	0.407	0.756	35.7

In January 2008 the Cardinals gave Molina a four year, $15.5 million dollar contract that took care of all his arbitration years and "bought" his first year of free agency. Regardless of the outcome of the upcoming arbitration hearing, and regardless whether you agree with the Rays negotiation practices, I believe that a deal similar to Molina's is in the best interest of all parties involved. We are past that point right now, but nobody says they can't talk about an extension during the 2009 season.

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Best interest of all parties?

Or best interest of the Rays.

Security is a good thing, and the market is down. I’ll assume you’re lobbying for a multi-year deal here, but not necessarily the same terms as Molina. Your case above makes a good case that the numeric midpoint of their respective numbers ($2.3 MM) is a reasonable position. One could also argue that since Russell Martin just landed $3.9 MM in his first arb year (I’m not arguing that Navi is equal to Martin), Navi is a decent bet for his asked price of $2.5 MM.

So let’s assume the Rays decide coming to a multi-year deal doesn’t violate the sanctity of their arb policy. Assuming that bought them some consideration on the front side, say $2 MM in ’09, is it reasonable to assume that raises of 1.5 MM per year for the following 3 would be in the offing? That would put Navi at 4 years and $16.5 MM. I still think that could be viewed as a team favorable deal, but certainly acceptable. What say you?

Molina’s raises in years 3 and 4 were $1 MM each, and his start point was lower / same depending on how you account for the $250 K signing bonus. He also got an option with a $750 K buyout tacked on and an increase of $1.75 MM in year 5 if exercised.

Frankly it seems like a reasonable construct. Navi would make more if he remained healthy and productive and just went through the arb process, but those aren’t insignificant if’s. You could argue he should get less than Molina – an arguable point. But since he’s likely to go through the process this time, and my opinion is he has a good chance of winning, that would push all the numbers up.

Perhaps a good time to amend that arb policy with an “unless we reach an extension” clause.

by nyyfaninlaaland on Jan 23, 2009 1:14 PM EST reply actions

Yes

That would put Navi at 4 years and $16.5 MM. I still think that could be viewed as a team favorable deal, but certainly acceptable. What say you?

Definitely, the gamble here is that we’re banking Navi’s production resembles 2008 and not 2007. Molina had a his best year in 2008 so the deal seems to be working for the Cardinals.

by Tommy Rancel on Jan 23, 2009 1:23 PM EST up reply actions