Percy Poll

by Kenny845 on Jan 25, 2009 11:52 PM EST Comment 22 comments

a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a

MY ANSWER IS THAT WE LOSE THE DIVISION, WIN THE WILD CARD, THE DS AND LOSE IN THE ALCS.

Poll

Would the Rays have won the pennant without Troy Percival playing in 2008?

Yes

30 votes

No

24 votes

54 votes | Poll has closed

0 recs | Comment 22 comments

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Comments

WHO CARES ABOUT STATS HE SAVED ALOT OF GAMES AND HAS TRUE GRIT.

by twenty5psi on Jan 25, 2009 11:56 PM EST reply actions 1 recs

This is a dumb poll.

Brad Ziegler had a scoreless inning streak. Brad Ziegler had not met BJ Upton.

by P Brady on Jan 25, 2009 11:57 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Agreed

If you are asking whether we’d have won with 24 players, no.

If you are asking whether we’d have won with a league average/replacement level pitcher, maybe.

If you are asking if we could have done better at 4 million a year, probably.

by GomesSweetGomes on Jan 26, 2009 12:00 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Actually

If you are asking whether we’d have won with a league average/replacement level pitcher

Actually, Percival was worth a negative 0.9 wins last year so we would’ve done better with Joe Replacement Level.

by Tommy Rancel on Jan 26, 2009 9:34 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

that i did not know...

I wonder though if the bullpen ever really gels without him.

2008 Tampa Bay Rays: The Longest of Longshots

by Kenny845 on Jan 26, 2009 10:40 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Wasn't Percy the guy who made the Kazmir/Price/Garza T-shirts

I don’t think the “stats” account for what he meant to the bullpen. I’m not saying that JP, Balfour, and others wouldn’t have still had good years but I think his leadership can’t be overlooked.

by Dbullsfan on Jan 26, 2009 12:22 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Marginal affect.

Even if you assign it half a win he’s still below replacement level.

by R.J. Anderson on Jan 26, 2009 12:41 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

They are called intangibles for a reason

I will freely admit that there is a positive effect that cannot be quantified from guys like Floyd and Percival. And if all else is equal, I would gladly take them over similar players who don’t provide such leadership.

The mistakes get made when people begin to try and quantify and pay big bucks for these qualities, assuming that they are as fungible as home runs and strikeouts. Too much of what made Floyd and Percival valuable in 2008 may not necessarily be the case in 2009, or with a different set of characters.

It’s all about the right ‘fit’ of personalities, and I think in 2008 they found lightning in a bottle in that regard. Trying to re-create it would , however, would likely be a losing endeavor, and they should count their blessings and just go after the best players.

by GomesSweetGomes on Jan 26, 2009 3:23 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Agreed completely.

by R.J. Anderson on Jan 26, 2009 3:47 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

The guys who REALLY make too much of that stuff are the broadcasters.

2008 Tampa Bay Rays: The Longest of Longshots

by Kenny845 on Jan 27, 2009 12:12 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Casual observers buy into it.

by R.J. Anderson on Jan 27, 2009 12:39 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

If you dont like the poll click on something else..

its the internet…youre going to land on a ton of stuff you consider to be useless.

2008 Tampa Bay Rays: The Longest of Longshots

by Kenny845 on Jan 26, 2009 10:44 AM EST reply actions 0 recs

I think no

Percival was money in the first half of the year and we probably would have lost more games with someone like Dohmann taking that spot on the roster in the first half. It’s not like we lost a bunch of games he came into with the lead in the second half either. That’s not much due to his talent, but I guess the point is that I could see us losing a couple more games in the first half but not winning any more games in the second half without him, and thus we wouldn’t have won the division. As the wild card, we play the Angels instead, who we don’t match up nearly as well against as the White Sox.

Vogt early, Vogt often.

by Brickhaus on Jan 26, 2009 11:58 AM EST reply actions 0 recs

On the other hand

It’s probably the same analysis if we don’t have Dan Johnson, so it’s a pretty useless question.

Vogt early, Vogt often.

by Brickhaus on Jan 26, 2009 11:59 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

He wasn't really good in the first half either.

He was an elite reliever in April, then his command fell apart and he wasn’t very good from then on.

Tools Whore

Sign Bonds!

by Tyler on Jan 26, 2009 12:27 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

"It’s not like we lost a bunch of games he came into with the lead in the second half eithe"

Um, results based analysis much?

by R.J. Anderson on Jan 26, 2009 12:42 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

The diary is all about results based analysis. He was answering the question posed to him.

Tools Whore

Sign Bonds!

by Tyler on Jan 26, 2009 12:53 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Ah, I missed the question.

I’m dumb.

by R.J. Anderson on Jan 26, 2009 2:10 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

The point of the question is results-based

So yes. Results based analysis is the only analysis that’s appropriate here.

Vogt early, Vogt often.

by Brickhaus on Jan 26, 2009 1:40 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Percy didn't pitch very good last year

but the Rays only lost something like 2 or 3 games last year when he pitched if I remember right. So with somebody else pitching in his spot they probably would have lost a couple more games and been the wild card. I don’t think the Rays would have won the ALDS and ALCS without the homefield which Percy contributed to even though it wasn’t always pretty.

by rays1234 on Jan 26, 2009 4:12 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

"So with somebody else pitching in his spot they probably would have lost a couple more games and been the wild card."

Probably not. There’s not much to it; all four of Percival’s blown saves last year involved home runs, and 3 of them were blown because of a homer, and he only lost 1. More than likely, this would have been a case where a better pitcher in the same exact situations would not have made any difference at all, because Percival got desired results despite sub-optimal performance.

That’s not to say that we as fans should tolerate Percival’s performance and accept it because of it’s results; he can’t pitch that bad again this year and expect to have wins in all but 1 game where he factors into the decision.

Unlike others, I feel that if Perci pitches like he did pre-injury last year I’ll more than happily tolerate the fact that he’s overpaid; I’d rather have the team paying more money for a reliever whose pitching at a near-elite level for one year then a team paying market value for an average reliever in his place. It’s important to note that this team had to overpay him to begin with to get him here at all; as they would have had to do with any player who was perceived as elite considering the team’s losing history and short-term outlook, and even though statistically he was a mess, he did have a positive impact on this team.

At the same time, I fully expect Joe Maddon to yank him out, and keep him out, of the closer’s role this time around if he gets to a point where he’s pitching like he was post injury last year. The impact of his attitude in 2009 is not going to be the benefit that it was in 2008, because this time, the Rays know they’re good; his leadership isn’t something that’s needed in the clubhouse this time around (though it’s probably still a benefit). There are enough pitchers between the bullpen and those in AAA that someone (or someones) should be able to step in and do a better job.

by kericr on Jan 26, 2009 9:36 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs