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Around SBN: The Ten Worst Swings Of The 2011 Season

Getting Familiar: Nick Barnese, Shane Dyer, Matt Gorgen and More

As we continue getting familiar, here are the Hudson Valley Renegade pitchers I've highlighted.

Star-divide

Name

K/9

BB/9

K/BB

HR/9

ERA

FIP

Nick Barnese

11.5

3.27

3.5

0.14

2.45

2

Neil Schenk

12.6

2.61

4.82

0.47

2.84

2

Joshua Satow

11.3

4.17

2.71

0

1.23

2.2

Frank De Los Santos

6.99

2.54

2.75

0.32

5.4

3.2

Shane Dyer

7.06

2.91

2.42

0.61

3.68

3.6

Matt Gorgen

13.7

1.96

7

0.78

1.96

2.1

Nick Barnese- The Rays 3rd Rd pick in 2007 out of High School is the only stud prospect of the group at Hudson Valley. Barnese, who just turned 20 years old earlier this month, is coming off a dominating season at short season Hudson Valley. He averaged 11.45 K's per nine and boasted a Sub 2 FIP. The only knock I see is his BB/9 jumped from 0.99 in 2007(rookie ball) to 3.27 in 2008. He's a slim righty with an arsenal that includes an above average FB (91-93 mph may touch 95) with late movement ala Matt Garza and a slurve type breaking ball with hard late action that is improving. His change-up is far behind, but he has plenty of time. The best thing I've read about Barnese is his swagger. It's been said that his confidence sometimes borders arrogance which is what you want from a pitcher. As Kevin Gengler pointed out the Rays may pair him up with Matt Moore in Bowling Green as left/right tandem similar to the McGee/Davis team we've saw before McGee's injury.

Frank De Los Santos--He is a 21 year old from the Dominican Republic who was signed as an undrafted free agent. His 2008 numbers on the surface don't offer much as he went 4-5 with a 5.40 ERA in 11 starts for Hudson Valley, but his FIP was a more manageable 3.22. In fact while his ERA rose from 2007 to 2008, both his FIP and K/BB rate improved. He doesn't strike out much, but he doesn't walk many either and he keeps the ball in the yard. He allowed just two home runs in 56.2 innings. He's probably be nothing special going forward, but if he continues improving his K/BB he could be a useful arm in the system.

Shane Dyer-Dyer was the Rays 6th round pick in 2008 out of the University of New Mexico. Dyer spent only one season at New Mexico so he is still young at age 20. There are some question marks about his mechanics/delivery and while he is a starter now, some feel this may lead to a future in the bullpen. What we do now is that he features a solid fastball in the low 90s with curveball (some say knuckle curve) and a changeup. His numbers don't jump out at you, but his 3.68 ERA was in line with his 3.59 FIP. He could be a valuable swing man in the organization

Neil Schenk-He was recently discussed on Draysbay and we will now forever remember him as "Who the hell is Neil Schenk?" He's a 22 year old reliever out of the University of Memphis. On paper he would look like a traditional LOOGY except lefties (.283 BAA) hit him better last year than righties(.200 BAA). His K/9 of 12.6 was very impressive as was his K/BB (4.82). There really are not many relief "prospects", but he could be a name to keep an eye on.

Joshua Satow-Like Schenk, Satow is a lefty and another 2007 draftee out of college. Unlike Schenk he was a starter as a junior and senior for Arizona State and is 23. In 2008, he was used exclusively as a reliever and had good results. His K/9 like Schenk was impressive at 11.29 and he did allow a home run in 36.2 innings. His 1.23 ERA was lower than his 2.2 FIP, but either one is solid. He did walk 17 batters in those 36.2 innings, but had a LOB% of 87.8. He was also equally effective at getting out both righties and lefties.

Matt Gorgen-Originally my cutoff for these lists was 30 IP, but since Gorgen's numbers were so impressive and he was pretty close to 30(23.0) I decided to include him. Like the other two relievers on this list, Gorgen is another college arm in short season A-Ball. He was selected in the 16th rd in the 2008 draft and made an immediate impact on Hudson Valley. His K/9 of 13.7 is a full strikeout more than Schenk and he only walked five batters in 23 innings making his K/BB rate a shinny 7.0. Along with that excellent K-Rate is an excellent ground ball percentage of 66.7% His FIP of 2.07 was only a notch higher than his ERA of 1.96. He gives the Rays a right handed reliever to watch along with the two lefties above.

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One thing you may be forgetting

Is that BA against DOES matter at the minor league level. It generally evens out by the time you get to the major league level, but good pitching prospects generally are better at preventing hits, independent of their strikeout rates.

I don’t really see FDLS as a prospect. Book is out on Schenk. Guys like that (old, mediocre stuff) need to perform at AA before I can get excited about them.

Vogt early, Vogt often.

by Brickhaus on Jan 27, 2009 12:16 PM EST reply actions  

I'll see if I can find it

But I remember reading a study several years ago that showed that the stat with the highest correlation to major league success for pitching prospects, expecially at the lower level, was BAA – higher than K/9, higher than K/BB ratio…

Vogt early, Vogt often.

by Brickhaus on Jan 27, 2009 12:19 PM EST up reply actions  

I dont think they are prospects as much as I'm recognizing

that they put up solid numbers and could be someone to watch at the next level. Barnese is the only legit prospect out of this group to me.

by Tommy Rancel on Jan 27, 2009 12:23 PM EST up reply actions  

Gotcha

I think Gorgen is a solid sleeper.

Vogt early, Vogt often.

by Brickhaus on Jan 27, 2009 12:35 PM EST up reply actions  

If the BAA correlation is correct than

Gorgen is a solid candidate for sleeper .097 BAA last year. 2.70 H/9, but 23 IP.

by Tommy Rancel on Jan 27, 2009 12:46 PM EST up reply actions  

What I'm asking is:

What is BAA giving us that strikeout rate, swinging strike, and batted balls rates don’t tell us?

by R.J. Anderson on Jan 27, 2009 2:14 PM EST up reply actions  

Um, how?

A line drive single is the same as a groundball single using BAA, batted ball rates tell you the difference.

by R.J. Anderson on Jan 27, 2009 2:20 PM EST up reply actions  

There are more crummy pitchers in the minors

And therefore there’s less luck involved. A good hitter should be able to take an 85 mph fastball down the middle and get it to go where he wants it to. Very rarely will they see that pitch in the majors though, so batted ball placement looks a lot more like luck.

I don’t think the study looked at line drive rate. It was long enough ago that I’d bet it didn’t. The minors didn’t start keeping track of that info until 2004 or 2005 I believe. I’m going to look for the source when I get home. Pretty sure it’s in print.

Vogt early, Vogt often.

by Brickhaus on Jan 27, 2009 2:27 PM EST up reply actions  

Okay, thanks.

I don’t doubt that there might be something there, I’ve just never heard that.

by R.J. Anderson on Jan 27, 2009 2:28 PM EST up reply actions  

Actually, it can't possibly include batted ball data

Because the study looked back 15 years to see how well the pitchers actually did in the majors. The names were guys like Tim Belcher and whatnot.

Vogt early, Vogt often.

by Brickhaus on Jan 27, 2009 2:29 PM EST up reply actions  

I love Barnese

I wonder how the future rotation will look

Price
Garza
Kazmir(well unless Barnese is still in the minors til 2013)
Shields
Hellickson

Scary how that leaves no opening for Davis, Barnese, Moore, McGee(reliever?), Lobstein, etc…..

Some great trade bait and incredible depth

Evan Longoria and David Price - the fight for my heart

by joeybw on Jan 27, 2009 12:59 PM EST reply actions  

If the situation is a perfect world where everyone hit their ceiling

I think Kazmir, Price, Garza, Shields, and Moore would be our best 5, with Davis just missing. Pre-injury McGee would also be up there, we’ll see how he comes back.

www.raysprospects.com

by Imperialism32 on Jan 27, 2009 1:05 PM EST up reply actions  

I disagree a little bit

I think Kazmir will eventually be traded. Unlike Shields, who is signed to a very affordable longterm deal, and all the cost effective young guys, Kazmir is making the most money out of all of our starters and would be the most coveted in a trade.

I could see Garza signing a Shields-like longterm deal, leaving a core of Price-Garza-Shields-Davis-Hellickson. Barnese, Moore, and Lobstein arent really part of this picture yet, as they are still 2-3 years away. But in, lets say, two years, our rotation could look like that, with Moore and Barnese knocking on the door.

by BossmanJunior333 on Jan 27, 2009 5:33 PM EST up reply actions  

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