Contract Comparisons: Matt Garza & Ubaldo Jimenez

by Tommy Rancel on Jan 28, 2009 12:00 PM EST

Yesterday we learned that Ubaldo Jimenez signed a 4 year, $10 million dollar extension with the Rockies. There are two additional option years that could push the deal to 6 years, $22.75 million. Anyway you look at it, it's an absolute steal for the Rockies. Even with the deflated free agent market, a young starter who has plus stuff is going to command a lot more than an average of $3.8 million a year.

Jimenez is a 25 year old hard throwing right handed pitcher who has tremendous upside and is just scratching the surface as a pitcher. Does that sound familiar? The Rays have their own 25 year old right hander with a blazing fastball, trememdous potential and is staring at arbitration after the 2009 season. Like I wrote last week about B.J. Upton and Nick Markakis, could the Jimenez deal be an benchmark for Matt Garza?

Let's look at the facts. Both pitchers are 25 years old(Garza will be 26 in November). Both work with similar stuff, leading with a plus fastball in the mid 90s. They both feature a slider as their secondary pitch and a change up and curveball to round out their repertoire. The similarities don't end with their stuff. Here is a look at career numbers for both

Career	GS	IP	W-L	ERA	FIP	K/BB	HR/9
Garza	54	317.2	19-22	4.02	4.22	2.04	0.93
Jimenez	50	288.1	16-16	4.06	4.12	1.7	0.69

*Service Time per Cot's: Garza 1.149, Jimenez 1.087

Garza has a very slight edge in ERA, but Jimenez has the better FIP. Garza has the better K/BB rate, but even pitching in Coors Field, Jimenez has the lower HR/9. This is because Jimenez is a ground ball pitcher and Garza is pretty neutral.

Let's narrow down the comparison to 2008 for "what have you done for me lately" negotiation purposes.

2008	GS	IP	W-L	ERA	FIP	K/BB	HR/9
Garza	30	184.2	11-9	3.7	4.14	2.17	0.93
Jimenez	34	198.2	12-12	3.99	3.83	1.67	0.5

Pretty much the same story; Garza has the better ERA and K/BB while Jimenez beats him in FIP and HR/9.

It seems that Friedman and Co. would have good frame work for a deal here. As a matter of fact, Friedman could argue that over their careers Jimenez has been worth more. In terms of value, Garza has been worth 5 wins or $21.2 million dollars since 2006 while Jimenez is at 5.6 wins or $24.6 million. If the Rays could sign Garza to the same deal, less or even slighly more, I think we all would first jump for joy and second agree it would be a great deal.

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In Sunday's St. Pete Times notes column:

Would a Matt Garza extension be similar to the one Colorado’s Ubaldo Jimenez just signed?

by R.J. Anderson on Jan 28, 2009 12:04 PM EST reply actions

This was their idea?

Anyway, as I was lying in the puddle, I think I may have found a way for us to get Bonds and Griffey, and we wouldn't have to give up that much.

~George Costanza~

by Sandy Kazmir on Jan 28, 2009 12:51 PM EST up reply actions

Come Feb 1st it will be.

by R.J. Anderson on Jan 28, 2009 1:00 PM EST up reply actions

I suspect the ALCS MVP award

Will mean that Garza commands bigger dollars.

I’m not sure signing Garza through arby would be the right move though, unless we’re able to lock in something that probably ends up below-market. With Kazmir, Shields and Price all locked in for a while, and lots of promising pitchers moving up the ladder, it wouldn’t surprise me at all if Garza gets flipped in a few years. If that’s the plan, then it probably makes more sense to just pay him the minimum for the next two years rather than paying him more now.

Also, unless Garza is a super-2 (I don’t think he will be), he won’t be arbitration eligible until after 2010. Note that Cot’s has already updated the major league service time numbers, and he only has 1.15 years of service so far. Ubaldo’s in the same boat though, so it would still be a valid comparison.

Vogt early, Vogt often.

by Brickhaus on Jan 28, 2009 12:20 PM EST reply actions

I dunno, I think Kaz will be gone after his contract

And I really think Garza will be an ace, maybe as soon as 2009. I would like if he got the same exact deal as Shields.

Evan Longoria and David Price - the fight for my heart

by joeybw on Jan 28, 2009 12:25 PM EST up reply actions

Jimenez has the slightly better numbers overall, I think that would offset some of the ALCS luster

by Tommy Rancel on Jan 28, 2009 12:28 PM EST up reply actions

But still they are very similar and think Kazmir would be the first one to go.

by Tommy Rancel on Jan 28, 2009 12:29 PM EST up reply actions

We've been saying Kaz needs to go for awhile now.

by Erik Hahmann on Jan 28, 2009 1:11 PM EST up reply actions

If by go you mean

go out and give us 200 innings of 3.40 FIP then sure I can hop on this. This is the year he needs to shit or get off the pot it would appear.

Anyway, as I was lying in the puddle, I think I may have found a way for us to get Bonds and Griffey, and we wouldn't have to give up that much.

~George Costanza~

by Sandy Kazmir on Jan 28, 2009 1:16 PM EST up reply actions

I advocated trading him last season.

by Erik Hahmann on Jan 28, 2009 1:24 PM EST up reply actions

Congratulations

I would hate to see him go unless we got something like Justin Upton in return. As frustrating as his pitch counts can get he is my favorite pitcher for what he can do against the best of the best. No knock on Shieldsy, Garz, Sonny, or Price, but he is the one guy that can shut down any lineup, any given night.

Anyway, as I was lying in the puddle, I think I may have found a way for us to get Bonds and Griffey, and we wouldn't have to give up that much.

~George Costanza~

by Sandy Kazmir on Jan 28, 2009 1:31 PM EST up reply actions

No knock on Shieldsy, Garz, Sonny, or Price, but he is the one guy that can shut down any lineup, any given night.

This

by rglass44 on Jan 28, 2009 1:40 PM EST up reply actions

If Kazmir can consistently be Kazmir then

I’m all for keeping him long-term, but if we have another season of 5-10 great starts and 15-20 so-so starts, I the teams starts to consider moving him while he still has a ton of value

by Tommy Rancel on Jan 28, 2009 1:43 PM EST up reply actions

If he makes 30 starts

and we get:

10 great
10 good
10 mediocre

that is still better than 90% of pitchers in the majors

Anyway, as I was lying in the puddle, I think I may have found a way for us to get Bonds and Griffey, and we wouldn't have to give up that much.

~George Costanza~

by Sandy Kazmir on Jan 28, 2009 1:46 PM EST up reply actions

Also,

take out that garbage game I went to against the Sox where he gave up 9 in 3 and he would have ended the year with a 3.01 ERA, granted it’s not a great stat but 149 IP with a 3 ERA is pretty damn impressive, considering he had 2 pitches for the majority of the year.

Anyway, as I was lying in the puddle, I think I may have found a way for us to get Bonds and Griffey, and we wouldn't have to give up that much.

~George Costanza~

by Sandy Kazmir on Jan 28, 2009 1:49 PM EST up reply actions

But for all the hoopla around him shouldn't we get more than 10 great starts?

by Tommy Rancel on Jan 28, 2009 1:49 PM EST up reply actions

There's only one Roy Halladay

Anyway, as I was lying in the puddle, I think I may have found a way for us to get Bonds and Griffey, and we wouldn't have to give up that much.

~George Costanza~

by Sandy Kazmir on Jan 28, 2009 1:50 PM EST up reply actions

Shields has 16 starts last year of at least 7 IP and 3 ER or less.

12 of 7 IP and 2 ER or less. I’m talking about more of those games from Kazmir

by Tommy Rancel on Jan 28, 2009 1:54 PM EST up reply actions

Apples to Oranges

They have 2 different mentalities, he will rarely go more than 7, that doesn’t make him any less of a pitcher

Anyway, as I was lying in the puddle, I think I may have found a way for us to get Bonds and Griffey, and we wouldn't have to give up that much.

~George Costanza~

by Sandy Kazmir on Jan 28, 2009 1:55 PM EST up reply actions

Ok then he's the best Rays pitcher who will throw a max of 6 innings.

Shields is the better pitcher.

by Tommy Rancel on Jan 28, 2009 1:56 PM EST up reply actions

They are both elite, but they go about it differently

Shields has given up 70 HR’s in 3 years
Kaz has given up 72 HR’s in 5 seasons

When you are facing elite competition give me the guy that limits balls in play and over the wall.

Anyway, as I was lying in the puddle, I think I may have found a way for us to get Bonds and Griffey, and we wouldn't have to give up that much.

~George Costanza~

by Sandy Kazmir on Jan 28, 2009 1:59 PM EST up reply actions

Kaz has 170 more career IP than Shields

For the record.

Beyond the Boxscore // Calling BJ Upton lazy is lazy.

by Sky Kalkman on Jan 28, 2009 8:31 PM EST up reply actions

I'd much rather have my 24 YO starter throwing tons of innings and pitches.

That’s always a good idea.

by rglass44 on Jan 28, 2009 1:59 PM EST up reply actions

Kaz throws a ton of pitches regardless.

It’s not like we’re taking him out of the same at 5 IP, 80 Innings.

by Tommy Rancel on Jan 28, 2009 2:01 PM EST up reply actions

No

We also wouldn’t let him go much over 100.

by rglass44 on Jan 28, 2009 2:01 PM EST up reply actions

And hed still give you 5 IP

by Tommy Rancel on Jan 28, 2009 2:05 PM EST up reply actions

This year he got killed by not being able to finish people off.

Any idea why?

by rglass44 on Jan 28, 2009 2:06 PM EST up reply actions

Yes it does.

Getting deep into games is part of what makes a starting pitcher valuable.

by Erik Hahmann on Jan 28, 2009 1:59 PM EST up reply actions

No it doesn't

He has had more value in his career and over the last three years than Shields. Did you just start watching the Rays this year?

by rglass44 on Jan 28, 2009 2:00 PM EST up reply actions

Of course it does

It just doesn’t necessarily make Shields more valuable than Kazmir. There are three areas where Shields has a value edge on Kazmir: IP, durability (i.e. reliability that you’ll be able to use them the whole season) and consistency (i.e. that they stay around the range they should be in). They all have value for different reasons, and on a lot of teams, I’d rather have Shields than Kazmir.

That said, with as deep as our bullpen and rotation are, it’s not as big of a deal, because

a) if Kazmir goes down part of the season we can still replace him with a pretty good pitcher

b) we have a good bullpen

c) the bullpen isn’t overworked because most of our other starters can go deep.

Five good starters who don’t go more than 5 and you have problems, since it will decrease the utility of an overworked bullpen.

Vogt early, Vogt often.

by Brickhaus on Jan 28, 2009 2:06 PM EST up reply actions

Part

not all. Again, it’s a good argument because we have both for many years, but for one game against elite competition give me Kazmir and it’s not even close.

Anyway, as I was lying in the puddle, I think I may have found a way for us to get Bonds and Griffey, and we wouldn't have to give up that much.

~George Costanza~

by Sandy Kazmir on Jan 28, 2009 2:00 PM EST up reply actions

But we're not talking one game. Kazmir Talent>Shields Talent

But you even said yourself it’s time for Kazmir to prove it.

by Tommy Rancel on Jan 28, 2009 2:02 PM EST up reply actions

He did

DID YOU BLACKOUT THE WHOLE SEASON IN 2007?

by rglass44 on Jan 28, 2009 2:02 PM EST up reply actions

Dude

What year is it?

Oh that’s right.

2007 is history.

by plasticman on Jan 28, 2009 2:12 PM EST up reply actions

Agreed prove it

but Shields has proven it, He is intelligent and every batter he faces he gains more data about strengths and weaknesses, but do you see him putting up marginally better numbers than he already has? Kaz has been equally good already and there is no doubt that he still has room to grow.

Anyway, as I was lying in the puddle, I think I may have found a way for us to get Bonds and Griffey, and we wouldn't have to give up that much.

~George Costanza~

by Sandy Kazmir on Jan 28, 2009 2:03 PM EST up reply actions

This. I'm not arguing Kaz's ability

in fact he should be way ahead of Shields at this point, but like you said Shields has proven himself, Kazmir hasn’t consistently.

by Tommy Rancel on Jan 28, 2009 2:07 PM EST up reply actions

this fail

Not every pitcher grows linearly, I think Brick put it perfectly below, Shields is the guy that what you see is what you get, where Scotty can do things 95% of other pitchers cannot. Coming into last year one analyst said that Shields is Dryesdale to Kazmir’s Koufax, both are dominant, but would you rather have Sandy or Don? I only bring this up because it is extremely apt.

Anyway, as I was lying in the puddle, I think I may have found a way for us to get Bonds and Griffey, and we wouldn't have to give up that much.

~George Costanza~

by Sandy Kazmir on Jan 28, 2009 2:10 PM EST up reply actions

It all depends on if Kazmir can do it again

I’m not sure how much ground you can stand on considering the fact that he couldn’t do it last year.

I think we all want him to succeed, but last year, watching Kaz was very very difficult.

by plasticman on Jan 28, 2009 2:13 PM EST up reply actions

Not from May-July

Blame Tito Francona for using him to lock up the ASG.

Anyway, as I was lying in the puddle, I think I may have found a way for us to get Bonds and Griffey, and we wouldn't have to give up that much.

~George Costanza~

by Sandy Kazmir on Jan 28, 2009 2:16 PM EST up reply actions

I remember one game in which he was good

and that was the postseason.

I would love to see a calendar of his regular season, and see how many times he came out.

Whatever Tito did to him… Kaz did to our bullpen again and again.

by plasticman on Jan 28, 2009 2:17 PM EST up reply actions

Ummmm

When he came back he was absolutely dominant. You people have a very, very short memory.

by rglass44 on Jan 28, 2009 2:18 PM EST up reply actions

Prove it.

Someone get all his reg season starts and let’s put em on a calendar. Let’s see how often he came out early. Let’s also see how often he was a game winner.

by plasticman on Jan 28, 2009 2:20 PM EST up reply actions

Gamelogs

KAZMIR GAMELOGS

Anyway, as I was lying in the puddle, I think I may have found a way for us to get Bonds and Griffey, and we wouldn't have to give up that much.

~George Costanza~

by Sandy Kazmir on Jan 28, 2009 2:21 PM EST up reply actions

Thanks.

by plasticman on Jan 28, 2009 2:26 PM EST up reply actions

From May 10 to July 21

14 Starts
86 IP, >6 IP/GS
2.62 ERA
95 Ks
8-4

DOMINANT

by rglass44 on Jan 28, 2009 2:24 PM EST up reply actions

DUDE!

In June he SUCKED!

Look at how many innings he was in!

4! 5! 4! 4!

Half a pitcher.

by plasticman on Jan 28, 2009 2:26 PM EST up reply actions

I should say in June

He HALF-sucked

by plasticman on Jan 28, 2009 2:26 PM EST up reply actions

Addendum

DOMINANT MAXIMUS

Anyway, as I was lying in the puddle, I think I may have found a way for us to get Bonds and Griffey, and we wouldn't have to give up that much.

~George Costanza~

by Sandy Kazmir on Jan 28, 2009 2:26 PM EST up reply actions

more like

DOMINANT STONAMUS

by plasticman on Jan 28, 2009 2:27 PM EST up reply actions

Wait

what?

Anyway, as I was lying in the puddle, I think I may have found a way for us to get Bonds and Griffey, and we wouldn't have to give up that much.

~George Costanza~

by Sandy Kazmir on Jan 28, 2009 2:28 PM EST up reply actions

stoner joke

by plasticman on Jan 28, 2009 2:30 PM EST up reply actions

I don't smoke

dip
chew
patch
snort
inject

Anyway, as I was lying in the puddle, I think I may have found a way for us to get Bonds and Griffey, and we wouldn't have to give up that much.

~George Costanza~

by Sandy Kazmir on Jan 28, 2009 2:32 PM EST up reply actions

and after that, he made it to seven innings only...

ONCE!

Six?

Only… ONCE!

4 and 5 the whole way

by plasticman on Jan 28, 2009 2:27 PM EST up reply actions

lets let both do a little more before we go making those comps

by Tommy Rancel on Jan 28, 2009 2:18 PM EST up reply actions

All else being equal, it does make him less of a pitcher.

If the quality of his 5-6 innings is lights-out, he can be just as valuable.

Beyond the Boxscore // Calling BJ Upton lazy is lazy.

by Sky Kalkman on Jan 28, 2009 8:25 PM EST up reply actions

this

Rays 2009 Slogan: "Come back with your shield or on it"

by PriceMultiCyYoungs on Jan 28, 2009 2:50 PM EST up reply actions

Why?

That’s retarded. He is the best pitcher on the staff.

by rglass44 on Jan 28, 2009 1:40 PM EST up reply actions

Not named James Shields, sure

by Tommy Rancel on Jan 28, 2009 1:44 PM EST up reply actions

Not true.

You have a very short memory. Kaz had a down year in 2007. He was battling an injury. Is BJ Upton a bad hitter? No, he was battling an injury. In 2008 Kazmir pitched 206 2/3 innings in 34 starts. I know you can devide, so how many innings per start is that? Over 6 per start. He had a FIP of 3.45. He had a FIP of 3.36 the year before. Before his 25th birthday Kaz had amassed 15.5 wins. Shields is at 10.5 and 4 years older. Kazmir has had his innings limited every year until now because he was pitching for a bad team when he was young. If he was past the injury apex I imagine he would have posted similar IP numbers to Shields.

by rglass44 on Jan 28, 2009 1:51 PM EST up reply actions

check that 3 years older.

by rglass44 on Jan 28, 2009 1:53 PM EST up reply actions

Years reversed

but yeah Kaz is a monster, faith in changeups good turn him into a deity

Anyway, as I was lying in the puddle, I think I may have found a way for us to get Bonds and Griffey, and we wouldn't have to give up that much.

~George Costanza~

by Sandy Kazmir on Jan 28, 2009 1:53 PM EST up reply actions

Kaz? No. No he is not.

by Erik Hahmann on Jan 28, 2009 1:50 PM EST up reply actions

How?

Tell me how. Give me some numbers. Prove it. Do something other than assert that he pitches 5 innings and is inconsistent.

by rglass44 on Jan 28, 2009 1:52 PM EST up reply actions

Same as above

Shields has 16 starts last year of at least 7 IP and 3 ER or less. 12 of 7 IP and 2 ER or less. Kazmir has better stuff, but Shields is the better pitcher.

Last 2 seasons WAR
Shields 8.6
Kazmir 7.2

by Tommy Rancel on Jan 28, 2009 1:55 PM EST up reply actions

Last 3?

Kaz- 11.1
Shields- 10.5

I think we’ve also proven that a great pitcher for 175 IP is better than a good pitcher for 200 IP.

by rglass44 on Jan 28, 2009 1:57 PM EST up reply actions

Depends on the bullpen

Vogt early, Vogt often.

by Brickhaus on Jan 28, 2009 1:57 PM EST up reply actions

with our bullpen?

by rglass44 on Jan 28, 2009 1:58 PM EST up reply actions

Good bullpen

Probably better to have the better pitcher. Crappy bullpen, the good starter who pitches more innings might be more valuable.

Vogt early, Vogt often.

by Brickhaus on Jan 28, 2009 1:59 PM EST up reply actions

Addendum

But if the other starters aren’t very good either, then it might be more valuable to have the guy who pitches more innings, since a reliever’s FIP will go up if they’re too overworked.

Vogt early, Vogt often.

by Brickhaus on Jan 28, 2009 2:07 PM EST up reply actions

Shields has greatly improved since his rookie season.

Kazmir has the edge on talent, ability, potential, but right now Shields is the better pitcher.

by Tommy Rancel on Jan 28, 2009 1:58 PM EST up reply actions

How?

By being an inning-eater. I guess we should sign Livan Hernandez.

by rglass44 on Jan 28, 2009 2:01 PM EST up reply actions

You're kidding right?

by Tommy Rancel on Jan 28, 2009 2:02 PM EST up reply actions

Yes. Somewhat.

The argument for Shields is similar to that, though.

by rglass44 on Jan 28, 2009 2:03 PM EST up reply actions

FIP

06 4.39
07 3.86
08 3.82

when those numbers go down that shows improvement.

by Tommy Rancel on Jan 28, 2009 2:04 PM EST up reply actions

Kaz career FIP of 3.74 says he's better.

by rglass44 on Jan 28, 2009 2:05 PM EST up reply actions

BOOOOOM

Anyway, as I was lying in the puddle, I think I may have found a way for us to get Bonds and Griffey, and we wouldn't have to give up that much.

~George Costanza~

by Sandy Kazmir on Jan 28, 2009 2:06 PM EST up reply actions

Schilling has a career FIP of 3.23

We should sign him. He’s better than both

by Tommy Rancel on Jan 28, 2009 2:11 PM EST up reply actions

Schilling is an asshole

I would sign him and make him do a bunch of Preparation H commercials and then fire his bitchass

Anyway, as I was lying in the puddle, I think I may have found a way for us to get Bonds and Griffey, and we wouldn't have to give up that much.

~George Costanza~

by Sandy Kazmir on Jan 28, 2009 2:14 PM EST up reply actions

If you're going to trade him, having him locked into a contract for less than he'd likely make in arbitration is a good selling point.

Beyond the Boxscore // Calling BJ Upton lazy is lazy.

by Sky Kalkman on Jan 28, 2009 8:23 PM EST up reply actions

As is having an extra year of control.

by RATW on Jan 28, 2009 11:21 PM EST up reply actions

Indeed

But it also adds risk for the team.

Vogt early, Vogt often.

by Brickhaus on Jan 29, 2009 1:05 PM EST up reply actions

Wht does it seem everyone has Kaz leaving?

He’s under our control thru ’12

Let’s get him back on track to where he was in ’07, not trade him

by Raymondo on Jan 28, 2009 1:45 PM EST reply actions

That would be good, yes.

by R.J. Anderson on Jan 28, 2009 1:45 PM EST up reply actions

I agree

Vogt early, Vogt often.

by Brickhaus on Jan 28, 2009 1:56 PM EST up reply actions

Which also goes to why I think Garza might be the one who gets traded

Even though it may not be true since they’re about the same age, I think people view Garza as having more upside to spare, and he’s cheaper and locked in for longer than Kazmir. Thus, he’s probably the one with more trade value, even though Garza has more value to this team.

Vogt early, Vogt often.

by Brickhaus on Jan 28, 2009 2:01 PM EST up reply actions

Why trade any of them?

Top Josh Paul Pornos- Big Navi Stroking, 2pitchers1cup, BJ to the Balls, Riggans Your Thingans

by SRQman on Jan 28, 2009 2:04 PM EST up reply actions

Blame it on Brickhaus he started it.

by Tommy Rancel on Jan 28, 2009 2:04 PM EST up reply actions

Why wouldn't we?

We’re going to have a huge hole in LF in a couple years, with all of the following starters under team control:

Kazmir
Shields
Garza
Price
Sonnanstine
Davis
Hellickson
Talbot
Niemann

Plus Barnese and Moore still coming down the pipes. You do the math. It would be a huge waste of resources NOT to trade one of our pitchers, and preferably the one who has the most trade value.

Vogt early, Vogt often.

by Brickhaus on Jan 28, 2009 2:09 PM EST up reply actions

Yeah trade

Sonnanstine
Davis
Hellickson
Talbot
Niemann

Keep the elite ones.

Top Josh Paul Pornos- Big Navi Stroking, 2pitchers1cup, BJ to the Balls, Riggans Your Thingans

by SRQman on Jan 28, 2009 2:13 PM EST up reply actions

FUCK YOU MOTHERFUCKER.

by R.J. Anderson on Jan 28, 2009 2:14 PM EST up reply actions

No hate to Sonny

but if Davis or Hellboy is better trade him. It makes me sad to think of it because he is one of my favorites.

Top Josh Paul Pornos- Big Navi Stroking, 2pitchers1cup, BJ to the Balls, Riggans Your Thingans

by SRQman on Jan 28, 2009 2:15 PM EST up reply actions

Take a deep breath

by Erik Hahmann on Jan 28, 2009 2:16 PM EST up reply actions

Horray trading Sonny talk! This is an idea I can get behind!

Tools Whore

Sign Bonds!

by Tyler on Jan 28, 2009 2:40 PM EST up reply actions

.

http://www.draysbay.com/2009/1/28/738060/contract-comparisons-matt#11784934

by R.J. Anderson on Jan 28, 2009 2:43 PM EST up reply actions

WOW

this response for trading Sonny but you’re ready to help BJ pack his bags if we get fair value.

Rays 2009 Slogan: "Come back with your shield or on it"

by PriceMultiCyYoungs on Jan 28, 2009 3:04 PM EST up reply actions

I don't think he ever said that.

I’d be shocked if he did.

by rglass44 on Jan 28, 2009 3:12 PM EST up reply actions

He did.

Rays 2009 Slogan: "Come back with your shield or on it"

by PriceMultiCyYoungs on Jan 28, 2009 3:13 PM EST up reply actions

About Upton? Yeah I did.

The only players probably off limits are Shields/Longoria.

by R.J. Anderson on Jan 28, 2009 3:14 PM EST up reply actions

wh... wh... what?

How is Upton not off-limits?

by rglass44 on Jan 28, 2009 3:15 PM EST up reply actions

If he signs a long-term extension he is.

by R.J. Anderson on Jan 28, 2009 3:16 PM EST up reply actions

Yes.

I forgot about this.

So much of his value though comes from his plus defense in center which an arbiter will never appreciate.

by rglass44 on Jan 28, 2009 3:18 PM EST up reply actions

This response is a joke.

If someone offers equal value for Sonnanstine, farewell sweet prince.

by R.J. Anderson on Jan 28, 2009 3:13 PM EST up reply actions

So we'll have a great rotation but no offense?

We’re not going to fill holes in 5/9ths of our offensive lineup by trading the people who are undervalued rather than the ones who are overvalued.

Vogt early, Vogt often.

by Brickhaus on Jan 28, 2009 2:18 PM EST up reply actions

Unless the undervalued become overvalued over the next few years.

by R.J. Anderson on Jan 28, 2009 2:19 PM EST up reply actions

Exactly

But that seems unlikely.

Vogt early, Vogt often.

by Brickhaus on Jan 28, 2009 2:20 PM EST up reply actions

SONNANSTINE FOR EMPORER

EAT A BAG OF DICKS CHENEY LOVERS

Anyway, as I was lying in the puddle, I think I may have found a way for us to get Bonds and Griffey, and we wouldn't have to give up that much.

~George Costanza~

by Sandy Kazmir on Jan 28, 2009 2:22 PM EST up reply actions

Vogt early, Vogt often.

by Brickhaus on Jan 28, 2009 2:25 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs

This guy brings tears to my eyes everytime i see this thing

I think its the American flag bandanna

Anyway, as I was lying in the puddle, I think I may have found a way for us to get Bonds and Griffey, and we wouldn't have to give up that much.

~George Costanza~

by Sandy Kazmir on Jan 28, 2009 2:27 PM EST up reply actions

Are the Rays going to be able to afford paying CC 10mm in 2010?

I had a crazy idea this morning at the YMCA. Someone tell me if this makes sense for either side.

Would we tell CC we can pick up his option if he would be willing to defer a % of his 2010 salary in return for a no-trade? He can insure himself he wont have to play for a losing team that season?

I think we have to decide by 4/1 on him right? I do realize the odds of a bad team trading for him is small but does this make ANY sense for either party?

Rays 2009 Slogan: "Come back with your shield or on it"

by PriceMultiCyYoungs on Jan 28, 2009 3:09 PM EST up reply actions

I don't think it makes much sense

The salary issues don’t go away just from deferring them. Lots of good good players are going to get very big pay increases over the next 2 – 5 years with this team, and at some point there will need to be some creative trading.

Vogt early, Vogt often.

by Brickhaus on Jan 28, 2009 3:24 PM EST up reply actions

or a new stadium?

by rglass44 on Jan 28, 2009 3:25 PM EST up reply actions

That could help

But it doesn’t increase the revenues immediately, and it doesn’t look like they’d be able to structure it in a way where the team owns the stadium (and thus can get tax benefits from building it).

Vogt early, Vogt often.

by Brickhaus on Jan 28, 2009 3:28 PM EST up reply actions

also true

by rglass44 on Jan 28, 2009 3:29 PM EST up reply actions

Yes

by rglass44 on Jan 28, 2009 1:57 PM EST up reply actions

Edwin vs. Sonny debate

Just different names.

Top Josh Paul Pornos- Big Navi Stroking, 2pitchers1cup, BJ to the Balls, Riggans Your Thingans

by SRQman on Jan 28, 2009 2:03 PM EST reply actions

You could not be farther from the truth

These 2 are incredible talents, only one of the aforementioned is worth the paper he signed his name on

Anyway, as I was lying in the puddle, I think I may have found a way for us to get Bonds and Griffey, and we wouldn't have to give up that much.

~George Costanza~

by Sandy Kazmir on Jan 28, 2009 2:04 PM EST up reply actions

Except one doesn't suck. They are both great

by Tommy Rancel on Jan 28, 2009 2:05 PM EST up reply actions

This

by rglass44 on Jan 28, 2009 2:05 PM EST up reply actions

Why trade any of them?

by rglass44 on Jan 28, 2009 2:04 PM EST reply actions

This.

Top Josh Paul Pornos- Big Navi Stroking, 2pitchers1cup, BJ to the Balls, Riggans Your Thingans

by SRQman on Jan 28, 2009 2:04 PM EST up reply actions

Read my response above

Not saying anyone should be traded this year or next, but it would be dumb to have that much pitching talent when we have a major pipeline of pitching talent and we’re probably going to have a few big offensive holes in 2011 (LF, RF, DH and 2B).

Vogt early, Vogt often.

by Brickhaus on Jan 28, 2009 2:10 PM EST up reply actions

Joyce is going to play all over

Anyway, as I was lying in the puddle, I think I may have found a way for us to get Bonds and Griffey, and we wouldn't have to give up that much.

~George Costanza~

by Sandy Kazmir on Jan 28, 2009 2:11 PM EST up reply actions

and 1B

Vogt early, Vogt often.

by Brickhaus on Jan 28, 2009 2:11 PM EST up reply actions

D-Jennings baby

/no injuries

by Erik Hahmann on Jan 28, 2009 2:12 PM EST up reply actions

This is true

The issue is the cost/benefit of trading a more costly asset as opposed to a cheaper one who we are less sure of.

by rglass44 on Jan 28, 2009 2:13 PM EST up reply actions

Eventually the Rays are going to have to pull a mini Florida Marlins type move

and trade a player for some stud prospects because the team simply cannot afford to pay everyone.

by Erik Hahmann on Jan 28, 2009 2:14 PM EST up reply actions

That's true

by rglass44 on Jan 28, 2009 2:16 PM EST up reply actions

If we use their warm up songs to determine the winner it is not even close.

Knockin Doorz Down >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> Du Hast

Top Josh Paul Pornos- Big Navi Stroking, 2pitchers1cup, BJ to the Balls, Riggans Your Thingans

by SRQman on Jan 28, 2009 2:07 PM EST reply actions

So about Matt Garza and Ubaldo Jimenez

by Tommy Rancel on Jan 28, 2009 2:12 PM EST reply actions

Who?

by Erik Hahmann on Jan 28, 2009 2:12 PM EST up reply actions

haha

Anyway, as I was lying in the puddle, I think I may have found a way for us to get Bonds and Griffey, and we wouldn't have to give up that much.

~George Costanza~

by Sandy Kazmir on Jan 28, 2009 2:14 PM EST up reply actions

Quite a steal

If Garza wants a similar deal, by all means get it done.

by RATW on Jan 28, 2009 2:15 PM EST up reply actions

Last thing

OK so to figure out the value of IP quality/quantity I used the WAR SS.

With Kaz and Shields at their career FIPs, and Kaz going 160 IP and Shields 210 their WAR is 3.9 for Shields and 3.4 for Kaz. Those other 50 IP I devided b/w Talbot starting at his CHONE projected FIP and the BP at a FIP of 3.5. The value of the Kaz combo bumped up to 4.3. This represents a gain of .4 WAR.

by rglass44 on Jan 28, 2009 2:16 PM EST reply actions

So Kazmir+Talbot is better than Shields, but not Kazmir himself.

by Tommy Rancel on Jan 28, 2009 2:17 PM EST up reply actions

Those innings have to go somewhere.

This illustrates Brick’s point about Kaz being better for this team. If those IP got to RL players than yes Shields is more valuable.

by rglass44 on Jan 28, 2009 2:21 PM EST up reply actions

Why is it that seemingly everyone is using one data point?

We have multiple years for Kazmir you know.

by R.J. Anderson on Jan 28, 2009 2:21 PM EST reply actions

I think some have a bad taste in their mouths from last season

I do

by plasticman on Jan 28, 2009 2:21 PM EST up reply actions

Here's an idea

mouthwash

Anyway, as I was lying in the puddle, I think I may have found a way for us to get Bonds and Griffey, and we wouldn't have to give up that much.

~George Costanza~

by Sandy Kazmir on Jan 28, 2009 2:23 PM EST up reply actions

I'm referencing people using only 2007 too.

The only new concern from last year was slider usage, and that’s probably tied to injury.

by R.J. Anderson on Jan 28, 2009 2:23 PM EST up reply actions

Me?

I am saying don’t just look at 2008. Look at their careers and last three years.

by rglass44 on Jan 28, 2009 2:26 PM EST up reply actions

No idea, I'm skimming the arguments.

by R.J. Anderson on Jan 28, 2009 2:27 PM EST up reply actions

Because if we did that Sonnanstine would'nt look like a stud as he did in 08

by Tommy Rancel on Jan 28, 2009 2:23 PM EST up reply actions

Sonny would be a ~3 win pitcher.

That’s pretty damn studly.

by R.J. Anderson on Jan 28, 2009 2:24 PM EST up reply actions

Closer to 2 than 3 in 07. I like the 3.6 closer to 4 in 08.

by Tommy Rancel on Jan 28, 2009 2:33 PM EST up reply actions

A good old fashioned tit ta tat

and i’m on the outside looking in

by Raymondo on Jan 28, 2009 2:33 PM EST up reply actions

Same.

by R.J. Anderson on Jan 28, 2009 2:34 PM EST up reply actions

Btw me, erik and glass set this whole argument up to get in shape for the season.

by Tommy Rancel on Jan 28, 2009 2:48 PM EST reply actions

People saying to trade Kazmir are dumb and I hate them.

Brad Ziegler had a scoreless inning streak. Brad Ziegler had not met BJ Upton.

by P Brady on Jan 28, 2009 3:18 PM EST reply actions

I'd be willing to bet money that Andrew Friedman has considered it.

Tools Whore

Sign Bonds!

by Tyler on Jan 28, 2009 3:22 PM EST up reply actions

FAIL

for him if he has not.

Rays 2009 Slogan: "Come back with your shield or on it"

by PriceMultiCyYoungs on Jan 28, 2009 3:23 PM EST up reply actions

I hear the Mets offered Victor Zambrano back

Vogt early, Vogt often.

by Brickhaus on Jan 28, 2009 3:24 PM EST up reply actions

If somebody offers enough

Friedman would trade anybody.

by Tommy Rancel on Jan 28, 2009 3:24 PM EST up reply actions

If Friedman likes a guy enough, he'd probably offer Kazmir too them.

Tools Whore

Sign Bonds!

by Tyler on Jan 28, 2009 3:25 PM EST up reply actions

Like Matt Holliday?

by R.J. Anderson on Jan 28, 2009 3:25 PM EST up reply actions

Doubt it

Vogt early, Vogt often.

by Brickhaus on Jan 28, 2009 3:26 PM EST up reply actions

He's not really speculating more insinuating.

Tools Whore

Sign Bonds!

by Tyler on Jan 28, 2009 3:27 PM EST up reply actions

Or maybe I'm missing some inside info

Not sure a Kazmir for Holliday trade would have made sense from a financial perspective.

Vogt early, Vogt often.

by Brickhaus on Jan 28, 2009 3:27 PM EST up reply actions

You're missing some loose change players.

Brad Ziegler had a scoreless inning streak. Brad Ziegler had not met BJ Upton.

by P Brady on Jan 28, 2009 3:28 PM EST up reply actions

More than loose change. They were pretty good.

Tools Whore

Sign Bonds!

by Tyler on Jan 28, 2009 3:28 PM EST up reply actions

Edwin is not pretty good.

by R.J. Anderson on Jan 28, 2009 3:28 PM EST up reply actions

Briggy and Edwin are not pretty good.

Brad Ziegler had a scoreless inning streak. Brad Ziegler had not met BJ Upton.

by P Brady on Jan 28, 2009 3:29 PM EST up reply actions

Get off Brignac's back.

by R.J. Anderson on Jan 28, 2009 3:29 PM EST up reply actions

No.

Brad Ziegler had a scoreless inning streak. Brad Ziegler had not met BJ Upton.

by P Brady on Jan 28, 2009 3:30 PM EST up reply actions

he's $$$$$$$$$$$$$

by rglass44 on Jan 28, 2009 3:30 PM EST up reply actions

No he's not.

Brad Ziegler had a scoreless inning streak. Brad Ziegler had not met BJ Upton.

by P Brady on Jan 28, 2009 3:31 PM EST up reply actions

hi hater

by rglass44 on Jan 28, 2009 3:30 PM EST up reply actions

A ~2-3 win SS is better than you're giving credit for.

by R.J. Anderson on Jan 28, 2009 3:31 PM EST up reply actions

You're being optimistic. He needs to turn up the bat to be worth what you're saying.

Brad Ziegler had a scoreless inning streak. Brad Ziegler had not met BJ Upton.

by P Brady on Jan 28, 2009 3:32 PM EST up reply actions

That's with a ~ -5 bat and ~5 defense.

-5 batting
5 defense
7 positional
20 replacement

That’s 2.7 wins.

Say -15 batting instead, fine, 1.7 wins.

by R.J. Anderson on Jan 28, 2009 3:33 PM EST up reply actions

1.7 !+ 2-3

Brad Ziegler had a scoreless inning streak. Brad Ziegler had not met BJ Upton.

by P Brady on Jan 28, 2009 3:34 PM EST up reply actions

!=*

gah

Brad Ziegler had a scoreless inning streak. Brad Ziegler had not met BJ Upton.

by P Brady on Jan 28, 2009 3:34 PM EST up reply actions

You could say I'm underestimating his defense...

If it’s closer to 10 then we’re still talking a 2 win SS, which is what I said…

by R.J. Anderson on Jan 28, 2009 3:35 PM EST up reply actions

Or we could say you're overestimating his defense

Since the average IL shortstop isn’t going to play defense as well as the average MLB shortstop, and since he wasn’t that great in a small MLB sample size this year.

I wouldn’t bet anything one way or the other, but I don’t see anything special in his glove, not that I have a big enough sample to make a great judgment.

Vogt early, Vogt often.

by Brickhaus on Jan 28, 2009 3:37 PM EST up reply actions

Since the average IL shortstop isn’t going to play defense as well as the average MLB shortstop,

http://www.draysbay.com/2009/1/27/738366/so-minor-league-defensive#11777068

by rglass44 on Jan 28, 2009 3:40 PM EST up reply actions

...

So when we say “Aybar was good at second in a small sample size.” it means nothing, but when you say “Brignac wasn’t good” in a smaller sample size, mind you, it’s supposed to matter? Please.

Scouting reports say he’s a plus defender. Either you’re saying scouting reports don’t matter or you’re saying only scouting reports you agree with don’t matter.

by R.J. Anderson on Jan 28, 2009 3:40 PM EST up reply actions

disagree*

by R.J. Anderson on Jan 28, 2009 3:42 PM EST up reply actions

No, it's not supposed to matter

I’m just mentioning it since you always do.

I realize the scouting reports now say he’s a plus defender. I’m just saying that, based on what I’ve seen on him, I’ll reserve judgment. Granted, most of what I’ve seen of him has been on a grainy feed, but he doesn’t look like he has great range, and he’s still somewhat error-prone.

Vogt early, Vogt often.

by Brickhaus on Jan 28, 2009 4:20 PM EST up reply actions