Community Projection: Relief Pitchers

by rglass44 on Jan 31, 2009 12:46 AM EST

Next on the platter (and last) is relief pitchers. The way I envision these projections is the following:

There are going to be three high-leverage pitchers in the bullpen, then three other mid-leverage guys, and then a bunch of others. I am going to list the 11 I want you to project, in no particular order. Then you list them in descending order of leverage from most important to least. Additionally, the WAR spreadsheet calls for 505 IP for the bullpen. This means do not go over this number, but if you feel those innings might come elsewhere just leave them blank. The leftover innings will be input as replacement level. I have no idea how the bullpen will actually shake out because we have like 327 options, and more questions than answers. This should be a fun exercise, though.

Here are the 11 pitchers and their CHONE projections:

	IP	FIP
Balfour	63	3.22
Bradford	56	3.93
Choate	44	4.47
Cormier	62	4.49
Howell	75	3.27
Nelson	57	3.45
Niemann	111*	5.05*
Percival	30	4.93
Salas	50	3.98
Talbot	151*	4.80*
Wheeler	67	3.98

* Projection as a SP. Generally, subtract one run from their FIP to convert to RP.

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Comments

Didn’t we already project Niemann and Talbot before? When we did them, I was including their innings I thought they’d get as relievers.

IP/K/FIP
Balfour – 65/75/3.3
Bradford – 60/18/4.0
Choate – 0/0/—- (Asks to be released when he doesn’t make the team out of s/t)
Cormier – 30/18/4.9 (passed through waivers by the ASB)
Howell – 85/90/3.4
Nelson – 72/75/3.6
Percival – 45/30/4.5
Salas – 30/25/3.6
Wheeler – 73/60/4.0
Others (Thayer, Day, dregs) – 50 IP

Vogt early, Vogt often.

by Brickhaus on Jan 28, 2009 9:19 AM EST reply actions

Oops

Order of leverage

Balfour
Howell
Percival
Nelson
Wheeler
Bradford
Salas
Niemann
Cormier
Thayer
Salas
Choate

BTW, why no Hammel??? I just noticed this now…

Vogt early, Vogt often.

by Brickhaus on Jan 28, 2009 11:24 AM EST up reply actions

Too average

by Tommy Rancel on Jan 28, 2009 11:32 AM EST up reply actions

But don't you think it's pretty likely he pitches in a Rays uniform?

Or at least as likely as Talbot / Choate?

Vogt early, Vogt often.

by Brickhaus on Jan 28, 2009 12:23 PM EST up reply actions

Choate could be on the roster opening day as our LOOGY.

by R.J. Anderson on Jan 28, 2009 12:48 PM EST up reply actions

I didn't include him because he seemed redundant.

I think Talbot is a better version. I didn’t include D-Rod either.

by rglass44 on Jan 28, 2009 12:49 PM EST up reply actions

or Thayer for that matter

by rglass44 on Jan 28, 2009 12:51 PM EST up reply actions

Or poor Dewon Day.

Or DePaula.

by R.J. Anderson on Jan 28, 2009 12:53 PM EST up reply actions

Don't you think it's SLIGHTLY more likely

that Hammel pitches here than Dewon Day or Choate or any of these other guys if for no other reason than that he’s out of options and the other guys can go to the minors?

I realize the people on this site don’t like him much, but there’s more than a 50% chance that Hammel is on the team this year. The chances are much lower than that for the others.

Vogt early, Vogt often.

by Brickhaus on Jan 28, 2009 1:35 PM EST up reply actions

There is a 90% chance Derek Rodriguez pitches for the team this year.

by rglass44 on Jan 28, 2009 1:38 PM EST up reply actions

You really think so?

I’d put it closer to zero. As I’ve explained before, barring a trade or two, there’s no chance he makes the team. It’s much more likely that we give the White Sox some extra cash to keep his rights, then send him to AAA.

Besides, I still don’t see what’s so great about Rodriguez. Doesn’t look any better than Hammel to me, from an objective perspective. I do think he’d be more valuable on this team, since we could use a groundball specialist if Bradford gets traded, but if Bradford is around, then what does he even bring? We don’t really need another ROOGY who walks too many.

Vogt early, Vogt often.

by Brickhaus on Jan 28, 2009 2:16 PM EST up reply actions

Scratch that

He does look better than Hammel (mostly because Hammel looks like teh suck), but that doesn’t change what their respective contract statuses are.

Vogt early, Vogt often.

by Brickhaus on Jan 28, 2009 2:17 PM EST up reply actions

So.

Keeping suck because he can’t be sent down without passing through waivers is a better choice than keeping slightly less suck because he can’t be sent down without leaving the organization.

Well then, right on.

by R.J. Anderson on Jan 28, 2009 8:01 PM EST up reply actions

Rodriguez

Can be traded for for minimal cash. You know that. Don’t play coy.

Vogt early, Vogt often.

by Brickhaus on Jan 30, 2009 10:53 AM EST up reply actions

More than Choate?

Absolutely not.

by R.J. Anderson on Jan 28, 2009 8:00 PM EST up reply actions

I have yet to see a remotely convincing argument

Of how someone not on the 40-man roster can make the team without couple trades or injuries. If you want to run that down in an article, feel free to do so, but pithyisms won’t help your case. I’ve explained my argument – time for you to explain yours.

Vogt early, Vogt often.

by Brickhaus on Jan 30, 2009 10:55 AM EST up reply actions

You see, Choate is a left-handed reliever.

And prior to Shouse, we had none.

Do I really need to explain that? You’re smarter than that.

by R.J. Anderson on Jan 31, 2009 7:31 PM EST up reply actions

none that weren't set-up men*

by R.J. Anderson on Jan 31, 2009 7:31 PM EST up reply actions

Balfour 65/3.4
Howell 77/3.1
Nelson 63/3.9
Wheeler 55/4.2
Bradford 53/3.9
Percival 30/4.7
Cormier 42/4.1
Salas 25/3.9
Niemann 40/3.7
Choate 30/4.1
Replacement Level 25 IP

by Tommy Rancel on Jan 28, 2009 9:30 AM EST reply actions

Balfour- 60 2.75
Howell- 65 3.20
Nelson- 50 3.25
Percival- 20 5.5
Wheeler- 40 4.00
Bradford- 45 3.95
Salas- 40 3.8
Niemann- 40 3.8
Cormier- 35 4.5
Choate- 35 4.6
Talbot- 45 4.00
Leftovers- 30

by rglass44 on Jan 28, 2009 1:02 PM EST reply actions

Balfour- 55 2.40
Howell- 60 4.10
Wheeler- 55 2.85
Percival- 35 5.00
Bradford- 40 3.50
Nelson- 55 4.00
Niemann- 25 3.75
Salas- 45 4.25
Cormier- 25 4.25
Choate- 35 5.00
Talbot- 30 5.00
The rest- 40 5.50

The truth will set you free, but first it will piss you off.

by pocket8pin on Jan 29, 2009 10:51 PM EST reply actions

In order of Leverage

Percival – 40 IP – 4.80 FIP
Balfour – 60 IP – 3.15 FIP
Wheeler – 60 IP – 3.75 FIP
Howell – 80 IP – 3.35 FIP
Bradford – 40 IP – 3.75 FIP
Nelson – 50 IP – 3.90 FIP
Choate – 30 IP – 4.25 FIP

The Rest – 90 IP – 4.10 FIP (I really like all of the “the rest guys” and feel that, given that they’ll only come in in advantageous situations).

by Navi's_Navy on Jan 31, 2009 1:06 AM EST reply actions