Because We Probably Need a Scott Kazmir Thread

by R.J. Anderson on Jan 28, 2009 4:38 PM EST

Some thoughts before you all take over.

The problem with Kazmir in 2008 was not the results, but rather the processes. Remember, we've dealt with injuries and Kazmir before, but never an injury that severely altered his pitch patterns. That's a bit scary. All we can do is hope he's healthy in 2009 and able to throw all of his pitches.

That being said, Kazmir is not as bad as he was in 2008 - a 2 wins starter, or average - and I'm not sure if he's as good as he was in 2007 - 5 wins. Three year average: 3.7 wins.

Speaking of the last three years, Kazmir has more wins than Cole Hamels, James Shields, Justin Verlander, Tim Hudson, Mark Buehrle, and Carlos Zambrano amongst others in that time span. Oh, and he's within a half of a win of A.J. Burnett, Felix Hernandez, and Matt Cain.

That's not someone you look to trade on this particular team. At least not yet.

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Key

At least not yet.

by Tommy Rancel on Jan 28, 2009 4:47 PM EST reply actions

Kaz n BOSSMAN

housemates woop woop

by daveh33 on Jan 28, 2009 5:04 PM EST reply actions

Puff puff.

Brad Ziegler had a scoreless inning streak. Brad Ziegler had not met BJ Upton.

by P Brady on Jan 28, 2009 5:09 PM EST reply actions

Looking past statistcs tells you to trade him

If a starter can not consistently get you to the 7th inning and now he is having arm problems it tells me it is time to trade him. The defense behind Kazmir won the game not Kazmir. If Ejax had the offensive production on his nights that Kazmir had on his nights then Ejax could have been a 20 game winner. The other one that I lament coming back is Percy. I am willing to give him a chance after back surgery to correct things. I have heard of no corrective surgeries or even as much of a medical report on Kaz.

by PewterPirate55 on Jan 28, 2009 5:11 PM EST reply actions

I have heard of no corrective surgeries or even as much of a medical report on Kaz.

I like how you take this as a negative.

If Ejax had the offensive production on his nights that Kazmir had on his nights then Ejax could have been a 20 game winner

Congratulations, you’ve just said the dumbest thing in the history of this blog!

Brad Ziegler had a scoreless inning streak. Brad Ziegler had not met BJ Upton.

by P Brady on Jan 28, 2009 5:32 PM EST up reply actions

This +infinity

If you don’t pitch a CG you might as well have a vagina

Anyway, as I was lying in the puddle, I think I may have found a way for us to get Bonds and Griffey, and we wouldn't have to give up that much.

~George Costanza~

by Sandy Kazmir on Jan 28, 2009 8:18 PM EST up reply actions

Please tell me how many starters consistently (> 50%?) go seven innings.

Beyond the Boxscore // Calling BJ Upton lazy is lazy.

by Sky Kalkman on Jan 28, 2009 8:21 PM EST up reply actions

There is only one Roy Halladay

Anyway, as I was lying in the puddle, I think I may have found a way for us to get Bonds and Griffey, and we wouldn't have to give up that much.

~George Costanza~

by Sandy Kazmir on Jan 28, 2009 8:22 PM EST up reply actions

Sabathia?

I could be wrong though

by staplemaniac on Jan 28, 2009 11:47 PM EST up reply actions

His arm will fall off soon enough.

Halladay does 9 innings in 90 pitches; regularly. People have a really hard time appreciating that level of talent in today’s game of baseball, and I don’t know why. He’s got the best chance of any pitcher right now to win 300 games in his career.

by kericr on Jan 29, 2009 12:44 AM EST up reply actions

THIS.

Rays 2009 Slogan: "Come back with your shield or on it"

by PriceMultiCyYoungs on Jan 29, 2009 8:18 AM EST up reply actions

So says you

Just because a guy throws a lot of pitches, it doesn’t mean he’ll fade quickly. Look at the history of pitchers with great longevity, and most of them were power pitchers who struck a lot of guys out and (thus) threw a lot of pitches. Nolan Ryan’s arm didn’t fall off. Randy Johnson’s arm didn’t fall off. Walter Johnson’s arm didn’t fall off. Tom Seaver’s arm didn’t fall off. Sure, their stuff was less effective towards the end of their career, but because their fastballs were so blazing to begin with, it just meant that their fastballs were reduced to merely being above-average late in their careers. On the other hand, there are plenty of guys who didn’t have high pitch counts routinely who still got hurt late in their careers. Looking at mechanics and pitch counts is a nice tool on a macro level, but I’m not sure I buy that it helps much when analysing pitchers on an individual level (the exception being when mechanics start to break down, like Carlos Zambrano’s over the past couple years – then you know something will probably be up soon).

Sabathia might not last that long because of the weight issues, but some bodies just have stronger tendons and ligaments than others. It will really depend on whether he can dedicate himself to getting in shape.

I think Halladay’s pretty unlikely to get to 300. He may last a long time, but he turns 32 in May and only has 131 career wins, and it’s not like the offense behind him is going to help him out much either.

However, looking at the candidates in his generation, he’s as likely as anyone to get to 300.

Vogt early, Vogt often.

by Brickhaus on Jan 29, 2009 11:52 AM EST up reply actions

Obviously my post was speculative

Number of pitches for Sabathia vs. Halladay over the last 3 years:

CC:
2008 – 3814
2007 – 3581
2006 – 2930

Halladay:
2008 – 3559 (-255)
2007 – 3330 (-251)
2006 – 3045 (+115)

Obviously, CC’s workload has been consistently higher than Halladay’s the last two years, while in 2006 Halladay had a higher workload due to CC starting a few games less. Looking over CC’s career, he’s hovered around 3100 pitches every year in the league except the last two years. I’m not one who will speculate on biomechanics or the physics of a throwing arm, but I know enough about the human body to know that bulk leads to inflexibility, and CC is a fatass. At 28, he’s nearing or at the end of his physical prime as an athlete physiologically (at around age 30, testosterone levels dip approx 10% around age every decade).

There was a study a couple years back on running-backs in the NFL that since 1990, showed a high correlation between running-backs who carried the ball 350 times or more in one year versus those running backs missing 4 or more games the following year. I’d be interested in reading a similar comparative report for starting pitchers since the 5-man rotation became commonplace in MLB.

You may very well be right and CC may not break down next year at all, but I disagree; I think his size combined with his massive workload makes him due for an injury at some point next year that will have him miss multiple starts. For him to not break down defies my logic.

by kericr on Jan 29, 2009 12:58 PM EST up reply actions

Shields

33 Starts in 2008. 18 of 7 IP or more.

by Tommy Rancel on Jan 29, 2009 10:26 AM EST up reply actions

Instead of using subjective evidence that Ejax had no support and Kaz did

lets look at the facts, and the facts are that Ejax had top notch defense played behind him on days he pitched. Oh how I love O-xO. I’m not saying we don’t trade Kaz, I’m just saying this argument isn’t a reason as to why. Also, Wins…. REALLY? really wins? really? alrighty then.

by Navi's_Navy on Jan 29, 2009 8:48 AM EST up reply actions

Let's trade the youngest

AL SO leader since Feller, the player who we all screamed to get signed long term, still only 6 mos older than Price

Yeah let’s dump him for prospects

by Raymondo on Jan 28, 2009 6:00 PM EST reply actions

I find it amazing that Kazmir's worst was still ~league average.

by R.J. Anderson on Jan 28, 2009 6:46 PM EST up reply actions

Yeah, thats pretty amazing for such a young pitcher.

If there is one thing decent that came out of this year I think it made him really improve his change-up. If he’s healthy next year and has two plus plus pitchs and a decent change-up, lookout.

by twenty5psi on Jan 28, 2009 7:51 PM EST up reply actions

OMG

don’t remind me, plus if anyone is homeless you can sleep in the tent i just pitched in my pants

Anyway, as I was lying in the puddle, I think I may have found a way for us to get Bonds and Griffey, and we wouldn't have to give up that much.

~George Costanza~

by Sandy Kazmir on Jan 28, 2009 8:19 PM EST up reply actions

I think there are laws on minimum housing, sir.

ZINGGGGGGGGGGGGGGG

Brad Ziegler had a scoreless inning streak. Brad Ziegler had not met BJ Upton.

by P Brady on Jan 28, 2009 8:22 PM EST up reply actions

nice

Anyway, as I was lying in the puddle, I think I may have found a way for us to get Bonds and Griffey, and we wouldn't have to give up that much.

~George Costanza~

by Sandy Kazmir on Jan 28, 2009 8:23 PM EST up reply actions

Trade != dump him for prospects

Would you trade Kazmir for his RF equivalent, say, Ryan Braun Jr.?

Beyond the Boxscore // Calling BJ Upton lazy is lazy.

by Sky Kalkman on Jan 28, 2009 8:22 PM EST up reply actions

There is no obvious comparison to Kazmir

The case of Kazmir is nothing like that of Jackson or Delmon or even Upton prior to 2007. Unlike them, Kazmir has actually performed at a very high level as a very young player. Of course there are warning signs and injury concerns, but none of them have been devastating and despite them he has performed between well and excellently.

We are talking of a pitcher who is not only a potential ace, with talent far and away more impressive than Shields’s, but also one who has demonstrated that talent in the majors since he was 21 years old. Not consistently, but regularly enough so that he has ended every season with plus stats in just about every important category.

Whatever the Rays do with Kazmir there will be a risk, but I prefer the risk associated with holding onto him. The risk there is that he bottoms out, or injures himself so that he becomes useless, I know. But the alternative risk is that we see him become one of the 3 or 4 best pitchers in the majors, a possibility we have seen more than glimpses of.

He is 25 years old, not 27 or 28. His injuries have been disturbing but not career threatening as far as we can tell. He is signed for reasonable money through 2011, and the Rays have an option for 2012. Sure, if we can get Justin Upton as part of a deal, the Rays would have to consider it, but otherwise Kazmir is the Rays’ ace just as Whitey Ford remained the Yankees ace through Kucks, Turley, Sturdivant, Ditmar, Terry, Bouton, Downing and every other pretender. Sometimes the other pitchers won more games than Ford (the key stat for most people then); occasionally they had better ERAs. Now and then Ford seemed fragile and unable to complete games, by the standards of his day. From 1957-60, he pitched between 129.3-219.3 innings each year, well below the norm. But every year, Ford was the ace of the staff.

by bobr on Jan 28, 2009 6:02 PM EST reply actions