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Around SBN: Jeremy Lin's Game-Winner Was Incredible, Worth Remembering

Getting Familiar: Alex Cobb, Austin Hinkle, Justin Garcia and JESSE DARCY!

Moving along,  today we have the Columbus Catfish/Bowling Green Hot Rods

Star-divide

Name

Team

K/9

BB/9

K/BB

HR/9

ERA

FIP

Austin Hinkle

Rays

12.9

3.66

3.53

0.39

2.51

2.2

Justin Garcia

Rays

9.71

2.49

3.9

0.5

2.49

2.7

Jesse Darcy

Rays

6.63

1.02

6.53

0.81

3.05

3.4

Alexander Cobb

Rays

6.25

2.26

2.77

1.03

3.29

4.4

Alex Cobb-Cobb was the Rays 4th round pick in the 2006 draft out of Vero Beach High School. As a 19 year old in 2007, he put up impressive numbers in Hudson Valley and developed buzz in some circles. However, that buzz has quieted down some after the emergence of pitchers like Barnese and Moore as well as a so-so 2008 from Cobb. His 2.77 K/BB was lackluster and his 3.29 ERA is shadowed by his 4.4 FIP. His HR/9 also jumped from 0.44 in 2007 to 1.03 in 2008. He is still young at age 21and should move up to advanced A Charlotte County.

Jesse Darcy-Yes, JESSE DARCY! Darcy was the Rays 38th rd pick in 2007 and so far has been a nice late round find. In 2008 he worked as both a starter and a reliever with success in both roles that saw finish 6th in the SAL in ERA. He carried a 3.4 FIP overall, but his 2.97 FIP as a relief pitcher was better than his 3.93 as a starter. His most impressive number was a nice 6.53 K/BB rate and further showed excellent control by walking just 15 batters in 133 innings. He could be the best starter for the Charlotte Stone Crabs in 2009, but will be a 24 year old in A ball by June.

Austin Hinkle-Another late round sleeper from 2007, Hinkle was the Rays 41st rd pick out of Coastal Carolina University. He dominated rookie ball in 2007 to the tune of a 1.64 ERA/2.38 FIP and had a nice K/BB of 3.38. He skipped short season ball and pitched out of the Columbus bullpen where he put up more of the same numbers. His K/9 jumped from 7.36 to 12.92, but his BB/9 also moved from 2.18 to 3.66. However, his K/BB improved to 3.53 and his FIP was actually lowered to 2.24. Like Darcy, he chould be best pitcher in the Stone Crabs bullpen this year, but will be 23 years old in May.

Justin Garcia-Continuing the theme of late rounders is Garcia. Like Darcy and Hinkle before him, Garcia comes from the later rounds of the 2007 draft (The 25th rd to be exact). He has been a solid every step of the way so far and pitched 72.1 innings out of the Columbus pen last year. With a K/9 of almost 10 and a K/BB of almost 4, he and Hinkle will be a nice pair in the bullpen down in Charlotte County. Unlike Darcy and Hinkle, Garcia will be 22 for all of the 2009 season.

*Dishonorable Mention*

Glenn Gibson-When the Rays traded for Elijah Dukes, they were getting a 20 year old starting pitcher who just put up a 2.75 FIP and a 9.0 K/9 the season before. Now, they have a 21 year old swing man who's K/9(5.61) almost matches his FIP (5.58). Gibson is a lefty and I guess you picture him as a LOOGY down the road, but his BAA of .382 against LHB in 2008 suggest otherwise. Meanwhile, Elijah Dukes posted an .864 OPS for the Nationals. Call me bitter.

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Obviously the Dukes

trade has other issues attached

Too bad, he’d look good somewhere in a Rays uniform

Meanwhile we are loaded with pitching prospects throughout the minors

by Raymondo on Jan 29, 2009 3:15 PM EST reply actions  

I doubt Cobb's HR rate will stay that high

He’s a groundball pitcher who mostly throws two-seamers. That said, he’s still not a great prospect. He was an athletic HS pitcher with a little bit of projection left when the team drafted him, who was mostly known for being a control artist. His control hasn’t really improved, and he’s still maxing out around 91.

Hinkle might continue to improve. The Rays drafted him coming off major arm surgery. Sometimes it takes those guys a few years to rebound.

Vogt early, Vogt often.

by Brickhaus on Jan 29, 2009 3:44 PM EST reply actions  

OT: I don't like this

Carlos Pena underwent surgery to repair a torn abdominal muscle earlier this month and will miss the World Baseball Classic.

The Rays are calling the surgery minor and there’s no indication that it will impact Pena’s readiness for spring training.
Source: Tampa Tribune

by Raymondo on Jan 29, 2009 3:55 PM EST reply actions  

I really like Garcia I am looking forward to see what becomes of him.

As for Dukes, it was a win-win situation. Dukes needed a change and no one would give us equal value due to his “issues.” So, maybe Gibson can wake up and be better but, I am happy for Dukes. He is a very nice guy, at least to me.

In the name of Shinji Mori, we shall win!

by thebaddancingraysfan on Jan 29, 2009 6:37 PM EST reply actions  

Guys, I gotta say this

and I know I’m gonna take a lot of crap for it ‘cause you’re all so protective of your system prospect status.

Your system has some very good top end prospects, and many are at high levels, so the regard makes sense – you’ve got some good guys that look like contributors in the majors.

But it isn’t a terribly deep system, and in my opinion is on the way down in the ranks. I say this predominantly regarding your lower level guys, but the upper levels aren’t crammed with guys either.

Don’t get me wrong – I think top quality prospects in the high minors are what really should be emphasized. And you’ve got a good mix of good ones and useful ones – Price, of course, Davis, Niemann, F. Perez, Brignac, Talbot, maybe Jaso. Hellickson and Rollins in AA, and McGee should rebound by next year. Jennings – though I have to say KLaw’s rating seems more than a bit aggressive, especially since he said he emphasizes closeness tothe majors, and Jennings has hardly played above low A. Barnese and Moore look real good in the low levels, have to figure Beckham will be good, and Jeffries is well regarded. And surely some sleeper types will rise.

But look at the list for Sally pitchers for example – there’s just not that much there, and nobody brags much on low A relievers. Hell, AA and AAA relievers struggle to get attention form prospect guys. And your A ball guys once Rollins and Hellickson were promoted weren’t much to hoot about either. Heck, outside of Price and Davis, the AAA guys are backend starters or relievers, and bench / depth guys. Brignac has a shot to be a regular, but he’s had 2 seasons of some offensive slippage. If he wasn’t so young for AAA he’d have sunk farther in the ranks – but he’s still got a future.

My take is BA is much closer to the mark than KLaw here. You guys like to talk about the lazy analysts that just skim off the top info and reputation. In this area I think Tampa might benefit from a rep as a prospect place with a good system.

If by some chance a number of your guys lose their rookie eligibility – Price will of course, but Niemann, Talbot , Davis, Perez, Jaso and Brignac could too if injuries strike. Where will the system strength be then?

Maybe Kline and Newmann from ‘07 will rebound in a big way from injury, and Salem , Fronk, and Vogt will keep moving forward. Maybe Royster will rebound. Lobstein’s debut could be interesting. Why isn’t there more talk about Otero or your 3B from Boogie Nights, Burt Reynolds (was it the 33 errors in 58 games)? A few pitchers in Princeton had some decent numbers besides Moore, and a handful of guys in SS showed some promise besides Barnese and Jefferies – Corder, Scelfo, Dyer, Satow, and Gorgen. But that’s not so many guys really.

by nyyfaninlaaland on Jan 30, 2009 4:33 AM EST reply actions  

On Otero and Reynolds

Both were old for league, and Reynolds has that small defensive issue you already brought up. Some people like Otero though.

I realize not everyone thinks this way, but I rate top-end talent a lot higher than depth when evaluating systems. Fact is that top end guys pan out so much more than ‘the field’, and ‘good’ depth doesn’t pan out that much better than ‘bad’ depth, that I just don’t factor it in as a big part of my equation.

That said, I wouldn’t have the Rays’ system in the top 3. I go Rangers-A’s-Marlins-Rays-Giants-Braves.

Vogt early, Vogt often.

by Brickhaus on Jan 30, 2009 11:05 AM EST up reply actions  

No, I absolutely agree on the top end thing

How many kids in a system are going to make it after all.

And the fact is the Rays have fewer holes to fill, so the need is lessened.

But the contrary fact is that having more guys with promise at lower levels improves the chance that some will pan out and be the good upper level guys in a year or 2. And prospects aren’t just for filling holes directly – having them to trade is a huge asset, and they tend to be highly valued.

My basic point is that the Rays don’t have a significnat number of low level guys performing well at present, so in a year or 2 dependoing on the majors status of the upper guys, things will change. They are already starting to – I think Callis suggested he had you at around 10th. I’d agree with you that they sit 6-10 now.

There are still a handful of pretty good guys at low levels – but the best are all pitchers, kind of like NY’s system, which I think has a lot more low level promise, but I and most others would put mid pack.

by nyyfaninlaaland on Jan 30, 2009 12:47 PM EST up reply actions  

Absolutely

Middle of the pack farm system at best in a couple years. The team has been drafting a lot of older guys, and most of the top-end talent is in the high levels.

Vogt early, Vogt often.

by Brickhaus on Jan 30, 2009 12:55 PM EST up reply actions  

I know they haven't been real aggressive there until recently

but it seems the Rays are sorely lacking in results from their efforts in the Caribbean, or is that just me? Since NY is very aggressive in that area, it could just be perception on my part.

by nyyfaninlaaland on Jan 30, 2009 12:51 PM EST up reply actions  

They don't really do much in the Carribbean

They started an academy in Venezuela a couple years ago, and so far Albert Suarez (a good prospect in Princeton) is the best guy they’ve gotten from that. They also are starting an academy in Brazil next year. The team has never gone hard after the top-tier international talent, and even the biggest signs have signed for 4th or 5th round money, so you probably won’t see too many big names immediately popping out.

Vogt early, Vogt often.

by Brickhaus on Jan 30, 2009 1:07 PM EST up reply actions  

Don't forget

that the expansion into the Caribbean is relatively recent, so we likely will not be seeing a lot of prospects for a few years yet. In fact, I think they are increasingly stressing that area as a source of talent, especially as draft talent not only is expensive but with winning records, less likely to be the best available any more.

But it seems clear that the Rays are increasingly mining for international talent, not only in the Caribbean but in Asia where I think they have expanded their scouting presence. We always have to keep in mind that a lot of what the Rays do is just 3 years old. We should not conflate the Sternberg regime’s efforts with the preceding one.

by bobr on Jan 30, 2009 2:25 PM EST reply actions  

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