DRaysBay Community Prospect #16
by thebaddancingraysfan on Jan 3, 2009 10:00 PM EST
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PrintHeath Rollins takes akes the #15 spot beating Justin Ruggiano by 5 votes.
DRaysBay Community Top 25:
- David Price (LHP)
- Wade Davis (RHP)
- Tim Beckham (SS)
- Jeremy Hellickson (RHP)
- Reid Brignac (SS)
- Desmond Jennings (CF)
- Jacob McGee (LHP)
- Jeff Niemann (RHP)
- Fernando Perez (CF)
- Nick Barnese (RHP)
- Matthew Moore (LHP)
- John Jaso (C)
- Mitch Talbot (RHP)
- Kyle Lobstein (LHP)
- Heath Rollins (RHP)
A list of players who may potentially garner consideration, especially if we decide to go deeper than 25 (please let me know in the comments if you think there is anyone else who should be added):
C: Jacob Jeffries, Mike McCormick, Matt Spring, Nevin Ashley, Mark Thomas
1B: Rhyne Hughes, Gabriel Martinez, Eligio Sonoqui, Michael Sheridan
2B: Elliot Johnson, Elias Otero, Josh Asanovich, Jeremy Beckham, Jason Tweedy, Cody Cipriano
SS: Neil Walton, Sean O'Malley
3B: Chris Nowak, Burt Reynolds, Greg Sexson
Corner OF: Ryan Royster, Justin Ruggiano, Sergio Pedroza, Reid Fronk, KD Kang, Jason Corder
CF: John Matulia, Emeel Salem, Anthony Scelfo, DJ Jones, Ty Morrison
RHP: Alex Cobb, Ryan Reid, Greg Dupas, Wade Townsend, Matthew Walker, Richard De Los Santos, Juan Wilsino Christopher Mason, Tyree Hayes, Marquis Fleming, Joseph Cruz, Albert Suarez, Will Kline, Derek Rodriguez, Dale Thayer, Austin Hinkle
LHP: James Houser, Chuck Tiffany, Michael Wlodarczyk, Glenn Gibson, David Newmann
Players not receiving votes will be left off of the next rounds vote.
Elias Otero will be not be an option this round because he did not receive a single vote last round.
This post was written by a member of the DRaysBay community and does not necessarily express the views or opinions of DRaysBay staff.
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I am gonna go with Jeffries here
I think he will be a lot better than people think.
Evan Longoria and David Price - the fight for my heart
Ruggiano
followed by Houser/Jeffries/Fronk (speaking of which where did he go, get him back on the poll).
Ruggiano, however, is close to the majors and has performed well at every stop. I think he arguablly could’ve been on as high as 11 or 12 (I think Perez is not as good a prospect as either Moore or Barnese, but thats neither here nor there). The point is power/speed with decent on base and contact skills with average to above average defense in the corners is very decent from a guy who is close.
Fronk.
Sorry.I think he may have been left off by mistake. My bad Fronk Fans.
In the name of Shinji Mori, we shall win!
by thebaddancingraysfan on Jan 4, 2009 12:04 AM EST up reply actions
Voted for Alex Cobb
breaking out at Port Charlotte in ’09
www.raysprospects.com
Trade for Billy Butler!
How would you rank the top 15 among probability to reach their potential?
A = most likely to succeed
F = least likely
A- Price, Beckham, Davis, Hellickson
B- Jennings, Niemann, Barnese, Lobstein, Perez
C- Brignac, McGee, Moore, Rollins
D- Jaso, Talbot
Jennings
is probably either a D or and F. His potential is Hanley Ramirez in the outfield but he most likely doesn’t quite reach that.
Tabot’s potential is a mid rotation starter, he probably turns into an end rotation starter, so I think he should be bumped up.
Beckham, under this logic is down, as are Davis (to C) and Hellickson (to B).
Lobstein down to a C, Perez up to an A, Barnese down to a D along with Moore, and Niemann is good where he is. I’d bump Jaso up.
A – Perez
B – Price, Neimann, Talbot, Hellickson, Jaso, Rollins,
C – Davis, Lobstein, Brignac,
D – Jennings, Beckham, Moore, Barnese, McGee
This isn’t a ranking of the prospects, just a ranking of their chances to reach their full potential. I guess the argument can be made that we don’t know what their potential is until they plateau around age 30 or so (usually) or we can say that they never reach their potential because the potential is always there for more when they improve certain skills, but this is just psuedo-philosophical mumbo jumbo
the point is…. well I forget, but here it is
Barnese, Moore, Lobstein
Barnese, Moore, Lobstein dont need to be moved down. The DRaysBay Community Prospect Rankings list has to take into consideration how far along each prospect is. with those rankings a great prospect in A has to be lower than an equally great prospect in AAA but Im not asking you to take into consideration what level they are at RIGHT NOW. I think Talbot and Lobstein have near equal ceilings, but Lobstein has a better chance of reaching it. Im going almost purely based off of projectability mixed with whatever red flags or negatives are attached to their names. Like having a history of injuries, inconsistent development, etc. A guy like Lobstein is rather subjective though because you may not think his ceiling is as high as what I do, because we havent got to see him pitch a meaningful minor league inning yet.
I agree with otehr things you said though, like move Talbot to C makes sense and Hellickson from A to B makes sense as well. Moving Jennings down from B to C makes sense but if you think he’s a D or F that means he is on his way to being a bust of a prospect. I dont know what being the Hanley Ramirez in the OF means since Ive never seen Han Ram play OF so I dont understand that comparison, or how it means he is a D or F
Wade Davis has the fewest red flags in his development, and is as sure a thing to reach his potential as anyone we have otehr than Price. I cant move him from A to C. I cant even move him to B.
Nobody knows is Jaso can play defense in MLB and nobody knows for sure yet if Perez can hit at the ML level (he did good in a small sample size. Both are big question marks still in 50% of their game, I dont see how Perez could be an A or a sure thing
You think Tim Beckham is a D meaning a bust and not likely to reach his potential? I thhink you are weighing his 1st year a little too heavily I couldnt put him lower than a B his ‘floor’ as a prospect is not low at all
I'll re-do my list
A- Davis, Price
B- Beckham, Hellickson, Niemann, Barnese, Perez
C- Lobstein, Jennings, Brignac, Moore, Rollins, Talbot
D- McGee, Jaso
I think you misinterpret what I'm saying
Beckham’s ceiling is something like a healthy Rafael Furcal, a guy who hits 15-20 homers a year and steals 25-30 bags with above average defense.
I’m not sure he reaches that, but that doesn’t mean I don’t think he can get to 12 homes a year with 20 steals and good defense, its just not his full potential.
These aren’t rankings like A, B, C, D, this is just % chances they reach their full potential.
A meaning 80-100 %
B meaning 60-80%
C meaning 40-60%
D meaning 20-40 %
F meaning 0-40%
By Hanley Ramirez in the outfield I mean his upside is 25 HR and 40 SB with good walk rates and decent to above average defense, these numbers are like Hanley Ramirez, meaning he is like Hanley Ramirez but instead of playing SS he plays OF. Sorry if I wasn’t clear. Quite frankly, if this is his upside (which I believe it is) I’m not confident he reaches it. That doesn’t mean he can’t get to 15 HR and 25 SB a year with good defense, but thats not his upside and because his upside is so high it means he has a low chance of reaching is.
Thats the justification on most of these guys. Talbot has the upside of a back-of-the-rotation starter, and he almost is that, meaning he has less to go until he realizes his potential, meaning, on this scale, he is a B or an A. Niemann is a B (same situation as Talbot, but he has a lower chance of reaching mid-rotation starter potential, slightly, because of injury concerns).
I dont think Jennings needs to be Hanley Ramirez offensively to live up to his potential
those are lofty comparisons.
I guess we will all disagree to some extent about what each guys upside is exactly, depending on how we view them, so I shouldnt attack your rankings. We might both agree on what a reasonably safe projection is for each player, but our beliefs on each guys ceiling will differ meaning our grades will be different.
Surprised at the support for Jeffries
He wasn’t much of a hitter in college, he DHed all year in the minors and he was very old for his league. Sure, he hit fine at a very low level, but he’s exactly the type of player I’d want to see get it done in high A before rating him as much of a prospect.
Vogt early, Vogt often.
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