Getting Familiar: Jeremy Hellickson, Heath Rollins, Ryan Reid and Neal Frontz

by Tommy Rancel on Jan 30, 2009 5:00 AM EST Comment 34 comments

My finale on the pitchers includes four pitchers who started out the season in class A Vero Beach and ended in AA Montgomery. On the table below, I've included both their Vero Beach and Montgomery numbers.

Name	K/9	BB/9	K/BB	HR/9	ERA	FIP
Ryan Reid	13.06	0.87	15	0	0.29	0.59
AA	10.29	6.02	1.71	0.19	4.66	3.26
J. Hellickson	9.74	0.59	16.6	0.82	2	2.57
AA	9.44	1.79	5.27	1.79	3.94	4.37
Neal Frontz	7.1	2.08	3.42	0.17	1.38	2.74
AA	6.45	3.22	2	1.21	2.82	5.26
Lewis Rollins	7.59	1.78	4.26	0.99	3.3	3.63
AA	8.28	2.16	3.83	0.72	2.88	3.24

Jeremy Hellickson-I debated about even including him on this list because we are all "familiar" with him, but a 16.6 K/BB should not be ignored. Hellickson dominated advanced A ball and was promoted to Double-A Montgomery. As you'll notice three of the four names on this list took statistical hits with their promotion and Hellickson was no different. His K/BB was still fantastic at 5.27, but nowhere near what it was in Vero Beach and also his HR/9 skyrocketed to 1.79. He gave up as many home runs(15) as walks in Double-A. Once he figures it out he'll be fine. The guy is a stud.

Heath Rollins-I don't know him well enough to call him Lewis. Rollins has consistently put up good numbers at every level. He's been over looked mainly because he's been a little older for his level and he doesn't has stuff that will "wow" you. Of the Vero Beach quartet who made the leap from A to AA in 2008, Rollins is the only one to see a drop in FIP and a rise is K/9. He'll be 24 in 2009, but it wouldn't surprise me to see him in Durham by seasons end.

Ryan Reid-R.J. and I were looking for a comparison to Reid and we never really could put a finger on it. He's short(5-11) doesn't throw overly hard(89-91),uses a slider as his secondary pitch and get alot of K's. He also a fair amount of ground balls, at 51% career GB%, and has increased that percentage at almost every stop. As a 23 year old in Vero Beach he was dominant out of the bullpen with a 15.0 K/BB and didn't allow a HR in over 30 IP. However, when he got to Montgomery things changed. His BB/9 rose from 0.87 to 6.02 which dropped his K/BB to a sub 2, 1.71. His FIP also increased, but a 0.59 FIP is unsustainable anyway and 3.26 isn't bad at all. He'll have to prove himself in Double-A before we can start thinking of him as a future reliever for the Rays.

Neil Frontz-He probably took the promotion the hardest. His FIP nearly doubled from 2.74 to 5.26 after the level change. He also saw his K/9 drop and his BB/9 rise. In addition to that, he gave up 28 hits including three home runs in 22 innings at Montgomery. Frontz will be 25 in April, so unless he comes out of the gate with his guns blazing, time seems to be running out on him.

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I've thoroughly enjoyed

these updates. They are as complete as one cab get with thought out commentary

by Raymondo on Jan 30, 2009 6:13 AM EST reply actions 0 recs

Jusat reposting this link

While we’re on Hellickson – scouting report from Kiley with video:

http://www.saberscouting.com/2008/05/23/jeremyhellicksonreport/

Vogt early, Vogt often.

by Brickhaus on Jan 30, 2009 9:54 AM EST reply actions 0 recs

I had read this when it came out, but...

this is always good to see:

There are a lot of "good" pitchers in the FSL, but there’s one that will take average stuff and mix it with plus intangibles it to become a solid starter in the big leagues. Hellickson is a guy with better stuff than that merely "good" group, and also has those plus intangibles that lead me say he’ll overachieve. Hellickson’s deameanor, approach, and feel for his craft are all very impressive.

by rglass44 on Jan 30, 2009 10:11 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

I talked to someone familiar with Hellickson and the quote I got out of him was

“Scott Kazmir in the mirror” in terms of size and delivery.

by Tommy Rancel on Jan 30, 2009 10:34 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Without Kazmir's fastball, though.

by rglass44 on Jan 30, 2009 10:35 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Yea it wasn't based on stuff. I was asking more about mechanics

by Tommy Rancel on Jan 30, 2009 10:37 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

ahhhh

You know how I feel about Kaz, so if you go around throwing out comps I might just explode.

by rglass44 on Jan 30, 2009 12:05 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Kiley's going to pop a boner.

by R.J. Anderson on Jan 30, 2009 12:17 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Oh, and re: Rollins

Lewis is his real name, Heath is his middle name. As far as I can remember, he’s gone by Heath though.

If you keep going these, the other piece of information I think might be useful is G/F ratio…

There probably aren’t a lot of good major league comps to Reid out there. Not too many pitchers of his type make the bigs, and even fewer make it for long enough to make an imprint.

Vogt early, Vogt often.

by Brickhaus on Jan 30, 2009 10:06 AM EST reply actions 0 recs

Reid

In a best case scenario, Joe Smith might be a good comp. More likely scenario is Franquelis Osoria.

Vogt early, Vogt often.

by Brickhaus on Jan 30, 2009 10:12 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Hellickson:

his HR/9 skyrocketed to 1.79. He gave up as many home runs(15) as walks in Double-A.

Here is what Kiley says about his curve:

The pitch would back up and come out flat a few too many times, so the feel isn’t completely there, but over half of them were late, sharp, and overmatched FSL hitters.

Maybe the more advanced hitters were just able to “punish” these mistake pitches…

by rglass44 on Jan 30, 2009 10:14 AM EST reply actions 0 recs

Plus his fastball dominated the FSL hitters. He probably didn't need much of a curve in the FSL

by Tommy Rancel on Jan 30, 2009 10:29 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

I love Hellickson

I think he is better than Davis, honestly. I also am a big fan of Rollins but if he stays with the Rays, he really has no shot at being a SP in the majors.

Anyway, I can see Hellickson spending the 2nd half in AAA. If all goes well, he will be in the majors in 2010.

Evan Longoria and David Price - the fight for my heart

by joeybw on Jan 30, 2009 12:07 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

If all goes well, he will be in the majors in 2010.

Where?

by rglass44 on Jan 30, 2009 12:18 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

It's just my opinion

but I don’t think Wade Davis will ever be the ace he can be so Hellickson can be the one to take Sonny’s spot.

Evan Longoria and David Price - the fight for my heart

by joeybw on Jan 30, 2009 12:58 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

I like Hellickson better than Davis also

And I feel like Rollins gets pretty severely underrated because he’s only like the 7th or 8th best pitching prospect with the Rays. I think John Maine is a good comp for him.

Vogt early, Vogt often.

by Brickhaus on Jan 30, 2009 12:52 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

I still can't shake the Davis-Waechter comparison

Davis really seems like a spitting image of Waechter to me.

Vogt early, Vogt often.

by Brickhaus on Jan 30, 2009 12:53 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Other than being tall righties, I can't see that comparison.

Davis has significantly better numbers throughout his minor league career than Waechter had. The scouting reports are also a whole lot better for Davis. Waechter was an 88-94 guy with the fastball, sitting in the 91 range with a slightly above-average slider and no sign of a usable change up.

Davis is a 92-97 guy sitting in the 92 range with a true plus curve and doesn’t throw a change, throws an inconsistent cutter with potential.

I know it’s just your gut and you could very well be right, I see where Davis could bust too, but I still think, if healthy, his floor is a well above-average reliever.

Tools Whore

Sign Bonds!

by Tyler on Jan 30, 2009 3:06 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

They were similar in the minors

Keeping in mind that Waechter was moved along a lot faster than Davis and had better ARL.

Vogt early, Vogt often.

by Brickhaus on Jan 30, 2009 4:33 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Not really.

They were moved along at almost the exact same rate. Actually, until their 5th year in the minors (which is this year for Davis), Davis was moved along faster. They both advanced one level a year until their 4th year, where they both reached AA, but Davis reached AA earlier in the season.

Waechter was promoted in his 5th year and Davis was not, but Waechter’s numbers during his time in AA/AAA were not as good as Davis were.

Also, the scouting reports I cited above both came from BA after their respective 5th season.

Tools Whore

Sign Bonds!

by Tyler on Jan 30, 2009 4:59 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Well, just beat me over the head with facts why don'tcha?

Vogt early, Vogt often.

by Brickhaus on Jan 30, 2009 6:40 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

I don't see the comparison in the numbers.

Until age 22, Waechter’s K rate was somewhat mediocre ranging between 5.3/9 & 9/9, the latter in an 18 inning stint. Generally he was in the 7-8 range. Davis has a 9/9 rate and 3 consecutive stints over 10/9. After a dramatic drop to begin 2008 in AA, it rebounded to 9.3/9 in Durham.

Waechter’s’ BB rate was a bit better but was somewhat erratic, sitting usually in the 2s/9 but spiking at 6.5 at the same time his K rate spiked at 9/9. Davis has generally been between 2.4-3.5/9.

The same comparison exists in HR rates, with Davis being pretty consistently low, between .3-.8/9 while Waechter see-sawed from .2-2/9.

At the Cube, where they rate pitchers by control, K rate and efficiency, Waechter’s numbers are 72, 45, 40 respectively. That may include his performance after his demotions, but it is still unimpressive. Davis is rated at 62, 93, 89.

It seems to me that Davis has been pretty consistently the more impressive performer in his initial seasons in the minors, and by a considerable margin.

by bobr on Jan 30, 2009 6:58 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

How does their stuff compare?

From what I remember, Weachter never had great “stuff” and still doesnt. A fastball that tops out at 91 and a mehh slider. Davis however has a plus fastball that gets up into the high 90’s and a plus power curveball from all accounts. Davis, without seeing him pitch, has always reminded me of Brad Penny.

by BossmanJunior333 on Jan 30, 2009 7:46 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

If you read 3 posts up, I gave a scouting report comparing the two

That is Waechter at his best before he got hurt.

Tools Whore

Sign Bonds!

by Tyler on Jan 30, 2009 7:56 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Stuff wise Davis is still better across the board

Wasnt he working on a splitter or was that someone else?

by BossmanJunior333 on Jan 30, 2009 8:04 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

That's exactly what I was saying.

No, the splitter is Niemann. He’s uses it as his change-up.

Davis has a cutter to make him more effective against lefties.

Tools Whore

Sign Bonds!

by Tyler on Jan 30, 2009 8:56 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

When he was Davis' age

His fastball sat around 91-93 and touched 94-95, which isn’t that far off from Davis, who sits at 92-94 and has touched (not recently) 97.

Vogt early, Vogt often.

by Brickhaus on Jan 31, 2009 4:13 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

From what I remember anyway

Not necessarily per BA’s report.

Vogt early, Vogt often.

by Brickhaus on Jan 31, 2009 4:14 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

And

they’re both righties with tall and fall deliveries who are about 6’5", 230,

Vogt early, Vogt often.

by Brickhaus on Jan 31, 2009 4:15 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

I remember seeing Waechter pitch at Tropicana Field

and the gun had some of his pitches at 95. I don’t think the issue is whether he threw hard but whether his minor league performances suggested a competent or excellent major leaguer compared to Davis’s. It seems to me that Davis has a lot more promise based on what he has done at a similar age and at similar levels.

by bobr on Jan 31, 2009 7:04 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs