More DH Talk

by R.J. Anderson on Jan 4, 2009 6:35 PM EST

FanGraphs pages:

DH ADJ is simply the WAR with FLD and POS adjusted to DH standards (0 and -17.5)

Abreu	BAT	FLD	POS	RPL	WAR	DH ADJ
2006	33.4	-15.3	-7.2	22.9	3.3	3.88
2007	11.2	-4.2	-7.4	23.3	2.2	1.7
2008	21	-25.2	-7.5	22.8	1.1	2.63

Giambi	BAT	FLD	POS	RPL	WAR	DH ADJ
2006	36.2	-7.1	-12.9	19.3	3.4	3.8
2007	1.9	1	-8.3	10.1	0.5	-0.55
2008	21.5	-1.8	-12	18.8	2.6	2.28

Burrell	BAT	FLD	POS	RPL	WAR	DH ADJ
2006	21.2	-8.3	-7.1	18.9	2.4	2.26
2007	26.2	-19	-7.5	19.9	1.9	2.86
2008	24.6	-10.8	-7.3	21.5	2.8	2.86

There's also baserunning to throw in there. I ran the numbers and Abreu's looking at a ~1 run advantage over both when it comes to steals and caught stealings. Mainly because he's the only one who can run. Marcels and Chone have them worth the following offensive runs:

Player	Marcels	Chone
Giambi	12	20
Abreu	13.3	10
Burrell	18.7	13

I think Chone is way out of touch here in projecting Giambi to be a win better offensively than Abreu. Otherwise what we have is a DH race that seems strikingly close. Other things to consider:

- League adjustment for Burrell.

- Park adjustments

- Price.

- Handness (since they're all so close this can become a factor. Abreu/Giambi: L, Burrell: R.)

- Age. (Abreu 35, Burrell 32, GIambi 38)

- Likelihood of decline.

I think I'm beginning to warm to Abreu.

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Comments

eh.

Brad Ziegler had a scoreless inning streak. Brad Ziegler had not met BJ Upton.

by P Brady on Jan 4, 2009 8:07 PM EST reply actions

my order for these three

Burrell
Abreu
Giambi

by RayOfLight on Jan 4, 2009 8:42 PM EST reply actions

OPS and wOBA

This how they ranks in these categories according to James/Marcels averaged projections

Dunn 892 OPS 384 wOBA
Burrell .862 OPS .375 wOBA
Giambi .852 OPS .372 wOBA .
Abreu .827 OPS .366 wOBA
Griffey .785 OPS .342 wOBA
Anderson .750 OPS .324 wOBA

by BossmanJunior333 on Jan 4, 2009 9:07 PM EST reply actions

I wouldn't trust James projections.

We don’t even know WHO computes them, and they’re almost always above average.

by R.J. Anderson on Jan 4, 2009 9:09 PM EST up reply actions

I agree

While James’ projections seem on the optimistic side, I think Marcels are on the low side (and for some reason he always projects much fewer at bats). Thats why those OPS and wOBA projections are averages between James and Marcels.

by BossmanJunior333 on Jan 4, 2009 9:14 PM EST up reply actions

I would've thought perhaps a mix of CHONE and Marcels. Not sure what the consensus on CHONE is though.

by R.J. Anderson on Jan 4, 2009 9:16 PM EST up reply actions

its obviously crap

It has the Devil Rays winning 90+ games…

IF only Harry Carey could be arounde for Kosuke.

by CubFanRaysaddict on Jan 4, 2009 11:01 PM EST up reply actions

what do you think of Abreu in the 2 hole?

I think Upton, Pena, and Longo would enjoy his OBP and patience at the plate, not to mention he has some speed and is a great base runner.

Would you bat him 2nd or 6th?

by Rays4242 on Jan 4, 2009 11:32 PM EST reply actions

The Cubs haven't signed Milton Bradley yet....There is still hope.

by walkoffwalk on Jan 4, 2009 11:51 PM EST reply actions

I don't have much hope with Bowden and the Cubs in a bidding war

God knows what he winds up with.

Evan Longoria and David Price - the fight for my heart

by joeybw on Jan 5, 2009 12:31 AM EST up reply actions

im not at all sold that Washington is really pursuing him hard

if at all

by Rays4242 on Jan 5, 2009 12:47 AM EST up reply actions

I agree about Wash.

by walkoffwalk on Jan 5, 2009 11:16 AM EST up reply actions

I really hope you are right, Melvin

I am tired of this foreplay, I want my damn DH

MLB.com’s Adam McCalvy talked to Brewers GM Doug Melvin, who said:

“I expect to be a little more active, and I think you’re more likely to get calls returned at this time of the year. I think this week will see a lot of stuff going on. Players start to get a little nervous after [New Year’s Day] if they don’t have a place to play.”

Evan Longoria and David Price - the fight for my heart

by joeybw on Jan 5, 2009 12:43 AM EST reply actions

I've liked Abreu a lot since the Yanks declined arb.

The issue with him, to me at least, has always been price tag, and that issue seems like it should decrease as time wears on. One thing Abreu has that the others don’t is a skill-set that ages quite well. I believe it was Baseball Between the Numbers that did a study on how players with particular skill sets age. They found that players that mixed “old-player skills” (good-eye, good-pop) with “young player skills” (speed and athleticism) tend to age much better than those that depend on one set. Every other DH option is uniquely an “old player” guy. So, take that for what it’s worth.

by rglass44 on Jan 5, 2009 9:45 AM EST reply actions