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Around SBN: Blogger Q&A - And The Valley Shook

Average != Bad

Unbelievably, when a player is "average", that does not mean they're bad. It means average. As in: better than replacement level and fringe level, worse than superstar level and above average level. An "average" player is still worth ~2 WAR, mainly because replacement players are awful and yet still make up most of the minor league population (in terms of skills translating to major league success) which means average players are a valuable commodity.

Applying this information tells us of a difference in classification when dealing with average and replacement levels of talent. Ray Olmedo is a replacement-level infielder. The "average" version of him might be Asdrubal Cabrera. Gabe Gross is an "average" outfielder. Jason Tyner is a poor man's Gabe Gross. This will sound odd, but average talent is still good talent.

Smart teams recognize this and add average players in their cost-controlled seasons, less smart teams pay big money to these same players during free agency. Smart teams realize that fringe level players should be paid as such; others sign Aaron Miles for two years and 4.9 million. Generally though, unless your team is full of superstars (it's not) you can do a lot worse than having average players fill bench slots.

Bumped due to Burrell swamping yesterday.

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Great post.

I’ll point out that a team full of average players will win 81 games. That doesn’t sound exciting, but it’s better than about half the teams finish every season. It’s better than 10/11 of Tampa’s history. And it’s better than the 50 wins that team full of replacement-level players would win.

Let’s say 95 games guarantees a playoff spot. Start with an average team and add Pujols (5 wins), ARod (5 wins), and Brandon Webb (5 wins). You now have a 95-win team. Now, obviously, it’s not that easy to add three of the best players in the game, but I think it’s striking just to show that three superstars plus a team of average players is a playoff team.

Holes absolutely kill a team, especially when they have multiple holes. But filling a hole doesn’t require a high-priced free agent or a superstar. It simply requires adding a league-average player (or platoon). This is yet another reason the Rays have suddenly become a good team over a couple years. Brandon Harris was a hole. First base was a hole. The bullpen was two holes. Catcher was a hole, the back of the rotation was two holes. The Rays have zero superstars. Longoria, Upton, Pena, and a few of the pitcher are, to varying degrees, close to being or becoming superstars. But the Rays have zero holes. Zero holes guarantees a .500 season. The very good players make them playoff contenders.

Beyond the Boxscore // Calling BJ Upton lazy is lazy.

by Sky Kalkman on Jan 5, 2009 1:34 PM EST reply actions   2 recs

Agreed...

It’s amazing that people don’t have any appreciation for what an average major league player brings to the table. If a scout were to sign say, six MLB average players over 5-10 years, they’ll most likely never have trouble finding work again.

And Sky’s point about holes is so true. When you’re attacking a batting order and you’ve got an excellent plan that neutralizes two or three above average players and you have one or two breaks (i.e. holes) in the order, it’s much easier to manage a game.

What’s intriguing about the Rays is that they have so many players with upside. Even Kazmir can be viewed that way this year because he wasn’t really 100% last season. Price will be on staff and Jeff Niemann has a great shot.

by Danno11 on Jan 6, 2009 11:33 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

I agree

Great post. For example, fans often forget how valuable someone like Gross can be as simply an average player with a specific set of roles on the team. Many, unfortunately, compare him (by implication) to star right fielders on other teams and conclude he weakens the Rays by not matching their production. Surely if he can be replaced by someone better it is worth doing, but every action becomes a matter of opportunity cost. Is the cost of replacing Gross going to create a problem somewhere else? If so, then it might be wise to keep Gross and fill a weakness elsewhere rather than upgrade an already adequate player while creating or leaving a real hole somewhere else. If not (Joyce?) then of course you do make the change.

by bobr on Jan 5, 2009 4:11 PM EST reply actions   0 recs

I agree Gross is underrated because of comps.

He gets compared to other full time RFs. But full-time players are pretty darn good. Crappy players don’t get to play full time and so teams end up with a crappy position with nobody who sticks. Gross is better than all those crappy hodge-podges. He’s average. And that’s a good thing.

Beyond the Boxscore // Calling BJ Upton lazy is lazy.

by Sky Kalkman on Jan 5, 2009 5:16 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Very nice and the Rays

do this in fine fashion, Zo, Wily and Gross

by Raymondo on Jan 6, 2009 10:28 PM EST reply actions   0 recs

Zo isn't average

At least he hasn’t proven to be.

by rglass44 on Jan 6, 2009 10:30 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Zo hitting for power

might come at the expense of more strike outs and less walks, to go along with a low BA. His calling card has always been making solid contact and plate discipline. It seems his new approach might have some negative ramifications on his approach at the plate.

by BossmanJunior333 on Jan 6, 2009 10:56 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

With apologies to R. J.

for parroting his eloquent (and elegant) “process/outcomes” chart, and to everyone if this is just another rehash, but I am continually amazed by the front office intelligent planning and execution of its plans.

After 2007, they correctly identified 3 areas that needed upgrades and managed all 3 as efficiently as one could hope for. The big deal of Delmon helped the run prevention problem in the starting staff and defense and the accumulation of bullpen arms from which to choose helped the other weak spot in run prevention, and all at little cost. People often chalk this up to being cheap or dumpster diving, but they miss the point that every move entails opportunity cost and precludes other types of moves. Thus, being efficient is part of the success itself, not simply an end in itself, but part of the process of keeping a team in a position to make further improvements as they become necessary (Bradford?).

Now after 2008, they have again correctly identified where upgrades are needed and again have found efficient ways to address them. Because they addressed RF cheaply in both money and talent, they had enough to get what may have been the best available DH for the Rays. Had they first acquired a right fielder who was expensive (say Ordonez), they could not have done much at DH because RF would almost definitely be more expensive. Additionally, it allowed them to pay for Nelson and to retain trade chips if it becomes necessary to cash them in. And just as they accumulated lots of inexpensive talent last year to be ready to step in (Johnson for example), so they are doing the same with the bullpen this year.

The Rays have definitely been lucky that many of their acquisitions have exceeded expectations. They are bound to be unlucky at some point or make some bad decisions. There will almost certainly be high profile failures. But the process remains admirable and it is tremendously exciting to root for a team whose management you can respect whether you agree or disagree with individual decisions.

by bobr on Jan 7, 2009 6:42 PM EST reply actions   1 recs

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