Projecting the Position Players
by rglass44 on Jan 5, 2009 6:11 PM EST
17 comments
With the signing of Burrell, we have a fairly good idea about how the at-bats should shake out. I looked at Marcel's projections for the 15 players I see getting the majority of the plate appearances and tried to guess how I thought they might shake out. Then I used their wOBA projections and the CHONE's defensive projections to figure their value.
| Age | wOBA | PA | BRAA | Replacement | Def | Adjustment | Total Value | |
| Evan Longoria | 24 | 0.366 | 600 | 19.3 | 20.0 | 7.0 | 2.5 | 48.8 |
| Carlos Pena | 31 | 0.383 | 625 | 29.3 | 20.8 | 1.0 | -12.5 | 38.7 |
| B.J. Upton | 25 | 0.358 | 600 | 15.1 | 20.0 | 0.0 | 2.5 | 37.6 |
| Jason Bartlett | 30 | 0.315 | 500 | -6.1 | 16.7 | 7.5 | 7.0 | 25.1 |
| Pat Burrell | 33 | 0.369 | 625 | 21.7 | 20.8 | 0.0 | -17.5 | 25.1 |
| Dioner Navarro | 25 | 0.319 | 470 | -4.1 | 15.7 | 2.4 | 10.4 | 24.3 |
| Carl Crawford | 28 | 0.335 | 580 | 3.0 | 19.3 | 8.7 | -6.8 | 24.3 |
| Akinori Iwamura | 30 | 0.330 | 600 | 0.5 | 20.0 | 0.0 | 2.7 | 23.2 |
| Matthew Joyce | 25 | 0.354 | 400 | 8.7 | 13.3 | 4.7 | -6.3 | 20.4 |
| Reid Brignac | 22 | 0.333 | 200 | 0.7 | 6.7 | 0.0 | 2.5 | 9.9 |
| Fernando Perez | 26 | 0.341 | 200 | 2.1 | 6.7 | 1.3 | -0.8 | 9.3 |
| Gabe Gross | 30 | 0.335 | 250 | 1.3 | 8.3 | 1.3 | -2.5 | 8.4 |
| Willy Aybar | 26 | 0.334 | 200 | 0.9 | 6.7 | 0.0 | 0.3 | 7.8 |
| Shawn Riggans | 29 | 0.312 | 250 | -3.7 | 8.3 | -2.5 | 4.2 | 6.3 |
| Ben Zobrist | 27 | 0.309 | 200 | -3.5 | 6.7 | -3.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
This puts us at about 31 wins above replacement with replacement level pitching. That's about an 80 win team. Tomorrow I'll look at the pitching staff to see where we are as a whole.
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i agree
BTW, it’s 15 players not 14
by RayOfLight on Jan 5, 2009 6:18 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
I count about as well as I spell.
I only do higher math.
by rglass44 on Jan 5, 2009 6:19 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
I know
The weather and BASEBALL. In related news, my girlfriend mourned the new MLB Network this weekend. She’ll be super-excited about this!
by rglass44 on Jan 5, 2009 6:18 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Sorry weather is always nice in the FLA.
Top Josh Paul Pornos- Big Navi Stroking, 2pitchers1cup, BJ to the Balls, Riggans Your Thingans
by SRQman on Jan 5, 2009 7:05 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
stupid numbers
Baseball is played on the field.
Beyond the Boxscore // Calling BJ Upton lazy is lazy.
by Sky Kalkman on Jan 5, 2009 6:35 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
Buster Olney's projected line up
1. Iwamura 2B
2. Upton CF
3. Crawford LF
4. Longoria 3B
5. Pena 1B
6. Burrell DH
7. Joyce RF
8. Navarro C
9. Bartlett SS
Personally, I really like that look. Thoughts?
by BossmanJunior333 on Jan 5, 2009 7:12 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
What is most likely to happen to Aybar?
Is he expected to split some time with Joyce in RF & Aki at 2nd?
by mittens on Jan 5, 2009 7:15 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
I'm assuming he'll be a super-utility type.
Spell CC, RF, 2B, 3B, 1B.
by rglass44 on Jan 5, 2009 7:16 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
I can easily see a scenerio
Where the Rays pick up Aki’s 2010 option (4.25 m) and then trade him next offseason. Considering his salary would be less than half his WAR projected worth, the Rays could get great value in a trade, while moving Aybar to second base for the 2010 season.
by BossmanJunior333 on Jan 5, 2009 7:22 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Is Joyce going to be platooned?
I’d take Aybar playing SOMEWHERE against all lefties. 2B a bit? LF a bit? 1B occasionally? All in RF?
Beyond the Boxscore // Calling BJ Upton lazy is lazy.
by Sky Kalkman on Jan 5, 2009 7:32 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
This.
I wouldn’t mind letting him play 1B versus LHP.
Carlos hit .190/.302/.352 against LHP in 2008.
Willy hit .266/.350/.444 against LHP in 2008 with an unlucky BABIP. He definitely should be in the lineup versus left handed pitching.
by twenty5psi on Jan 5, 2009 7:50 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
31 WAR
from hitters alone is pretty impressive. Between Kazmir, Shields, Garza, Price and Sonnanstine it should lift the Rays above 40 and a few from the bullpen adds more. Very good on paper, even better than last year, but good enough with the Yankees improvment?
vr, Xei
by Xeifrank on Jan 6, 2009 1:24 AM EST reply actions 0 recs
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