Projecting the Position Players

by rglass44 on Jan 5, 2009 6:11 PM EST Comment 17 comments

With the signing of Burrell, we have a fairly good idea about how the at-bats should shake out. I looked at Marcel's projections for the 15 players I see getting the majority of the plate appearances and tried to guess how I thought they might shake out. Then I used their wOBA projections and the CHONE's defensive projections to figure their value.

	Age	wOBA	PA	BRAA	Replacement	Def	Adjustment	Total Value
Evan Longoria	24	0.366	600	19.3	20.0	7.0	2.5	48.8
Carlos Pena	31	0.383	625	29.3	20.8	1.0	-12.5	38.7
B.J. Upton	25	0.358	600	15.1	20.0	0.0	2.5	37.6
Jason Bartlett	30	0.315	500	-6.1	16.7	7.5	7.0	25.1
Pat Burrell	33	0.369	625	21.7	20.8	0.0	-17.5	25.1
Dioner Navarro	25	0.319	470	-4.1	15.7	2.4	10.4	24.3
Carl Crawford	28	0.335	580	3.0	19.3	8.7	-6.8	24.3
Akinori Iwamura	30	0.330	600	0.5	20.0	0.0	2.7	23.2
Matthew Joyce	25	0.354	400	8.7	13.3	4.7	-6.3	20.4
Reid Brignac	22	0.333	200	0.7	6.7	0.0	2.5	9.9
Fernando Perez	26	0.341	200	2.1	6.7	1.3	-0.8	9.3
Gabe Gross	30	0.335	250	1.3	8.3	1.3	-2.5	8.4
Willy Aybar	26	0.334	200	0.9	6.7	0.0	0.3	7.8
Shawn Riggans	29	0.312	250	-3.7	8.3	-2.5	4.2	6.3
Ben Zobrist	27	0.309	200	-3.5	6.7	-3.3	0.3	0.1

This puts us at about 31 wins above replacement with replacement level pitching. That's about an 80 win team. Tomorrow I'll look at the pitching staff to see where we are as a whole.

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Comments

Can spring hurry up and get here?

by R.J. Anderson on Jan 5, 2009 6:15 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

i agree

BTW, it’s 15 players not 14

by RayOfLight on Jan 5, 2009 6:18 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

I count about as well as I spell.

I only do higher math.

by rglass44 on Jan 5, 2009 6:19 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Yet you're insulting others on their intelligence? Sigh. Kids these days.

by R.J. Anderson on Jan 5, 2009 6:22 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

I only subscribe to higher end intelligent leanings.

by rglass44 on Jan 5, 2009 6:24 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

I know

The weather and BASEBALL. In related news, my girlfriend mourned the new MLB Network this weekend. She’ll be super-excited about this!

by rglass44 on Jan 5, 2009 6:18 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Sorry weather is always nice in the FLA.

Top Josh Paul Pornos- Big Navi Stroking, 2pitchers1cup, BJ to the Balls, Riggans Your Thingans

by SRQman on Jan 5, 2009 7:05 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Too bad the job market isn't.

by rglass44 on Jan 5, 2009 7:08 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

stupid numbers

Baseball is played on the field.

Beyond the Boxscore // Calling BJ Upton lazy is lazy.

by Sky Kalkman on Jan 5, 2009 6:35 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Buster Olney's projected line up

1. Iwamura 2B
2. Upton CF
3. Crawford LF
4. Longoria 3B
5. Pena 1B
6. Burrell DH
7. Joyce RF
8. Navarro C
9. Bartlett SS

Personally, I really like that look. Thoughts?

by BossmanJunior333 on Jan 5, 2009 7:12 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Meh

I don’t like Aki and CC that high.

BJ
CC
Longo
Pena
Burrell
Joyce
Aki
Navi
Barty

Maybe move Barty to 8 and and Aki to 9.

by rglass44 on Jan 5, 2009 7:14 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

What is most likely to happen to Aybar?

Is he expected to split some time with Joyce in RF & Aki at 2nd?

by mittens on Jan 5, 2009 7:15 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

I'm assuming he'll be a super-utility type.

Spell CC, RF, 2B, 3B, 1B.

by rglass44 on Jan 5, 2009 7:16 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

I can easily see a scenerio

Where the Rays pick up Aki’s 2010 option (4.25 m) and then trade him next offseason. Considering his salary would be less than half his WAR projected worth, the Rays could get great value in a trade, while moving Aybar to second base for the 2010 season.

by BossmanJunior333 on Jan 5, 2009 7:22 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Is Joyce going to be platooned?

I’d take Aybar playing SOMEWHERE against all lefties. 2B a bit? LF a bit? 1B occasionally? All in RF?

Beyond the Boxscore // Calling BJ Upton lazy is lazy.

by Sky Kalkman on Jan 5, 2009 7:32 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

This.

I wouldn’t mind letting him play 1B versus LHP.

Carlos hit .190/.302/.352 against LHP in 2008.
Willy hit .266/.350/.444 against LHP in 2008 with an unlucky BABIP. He definitely should be in the lineup versus left handed pitching.

by twenty5psi on Jan 5, 2009 7:50 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

31 WAR

from hitters alone is pretty impressive. Between Kazmir, Shields, Garza, Price and Sonnanstine it should lift the Rays above 40 and a few from the bullpen adds more. Very good on paper, even better than last year, but good enough with the Yankees improvment?
vr, Xei

by Xeifrank on Jan 6, 2009 1:24 AM EST reply actions 0 recs