Projecting the Pitchers

by rglass44 on Jan 6, 2009 12:04 PM EST Comment 11 comments

Yesterday, after the Burrell signing, I took a look at how the position players should project offensively and defensively. We came away with a projection of +31 WAR from the position players alone. Today, I'll take a look at the pitchers and see where that leaves us.

I used the NLRS method to get the WAR figures. I used Marcels FIP projections and some IP estimations based on Marcels and what I think about the way the rotation and bullpen will shake out. From there, I figured that Shields, Kazmir, Sonnanstine, Garza, and Price would only start. I assumed Talbot and Niemann would see half their IP in relief and half as spot-starters. Everyone else I used the bullpen figures.

Methodology:

A. For innings as a starter: (5.75-FIP)

For innings as a Reliever: (4.75-FIP)

B. IP/9

C. A*B=NLRS

Here are the findings. And of course WAR is just NLRS/10.

	Age	IP	FIP	NLRS	WAR
James Shields	28	200	3.88	41.56	4.16
Andy Sonnanstine	26	180	3.96	35.80	3.58
Matt Garza	26	170	4.10	31.17	3.12
Scott Kazmir	25	170	3.82	36.46	3.65
David Price	24	150	4.16	26.50	2.65
J.P. Howell	26	80	3.95	7.11	0.71
Jeff Niemann	26	80	4.53	6.40	0.64
Grant Balfour	32	70	3.60	8.94	0.89
Joe Nelson	35	70	4.21	4.20	0.42
Dan Wheeler	32	65	4.15	4.33	0.43
Chad Bradford	35	65	3.93	5.92	0.59
Mitch Talbot	26	50	4.72	2.94	0.29
Troy Percival	40	40	4.67	0.36	0.04
Juan Salas	31	35	4.66	0.35	0.03
Jason Hammel	27	20	4.82	-0.16	-0.02
Total		1445	4.08	211.88	21.19

Derek Rodriguez did not have a projection, so he wasn't included. The total of 1445 IP is just shy of the 1447 2/3 from last year (which was a little higher than LA), so I just used an estimation of a round number.

So with a 21 WAR total for the pitching staff and a 31 WAR total for the position players, we have QUITE the team on our hands. You are looking at a 52 WAR team. This team projects to win 100 games based on my very crude estimations. 100 MOTHER FREAKING GAMES PEOPLE!

The most amazing aspect to me is these figures seem reasonable. None of these numbers screams unlikely, same with the position players. We could be looking at 100-win team in the best division in baseball.

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We could just keep getting better for years to come also

But no, I do not feel bad for our opponents.

Evan Longoria and David Price - the fight for my heart

by joeybw on Jan 6, 2009 12:31 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

What about the Yankees? Won't someone please think about the Yankees?

How dare baseball structure the divisions in such a way that the Yankees might be left out of the playoffs twice in a row? REALIGNMENT!!

by ReasonableDoubt on Jan 6, 2009 1:25 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

i got a boner

i love it

by daveh33 on Jan 6, 2009 1:26 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Randy Choate signed to minor-league deal.

The same is true for Julio DePaula. Choate had a 3.80 ERA in winter league ball.

Drew

Eduardo Morlan = God.

by Devilray187 on Jan 6, 2009 1:26 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Surprising

That Sonny projects better than Garza… And the only person I could really see underachieving is Balfour. I love him to death but throwin 95-98 over the plate constantly has to get you killed one day. Or maybe not hopefully it keeps working. Id love to see him when the closer job outright but I doubt Maddon gives it to one person.

by BJ the Bossman on Jan 6, 2009 2:26 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

I suspect Sonnanstine will underperform his projected FIP

For reasons I have beaten to death with a shillelagh.

Vogt early, Vogt often.

by Brickhaus on Jan 6, 2009 3:55 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Interesting thing about this

Recntly reading through the NBJHA, I saw a part where Bill James tried to categorize pitchers into “families” based on tendencies, handedness, stuff, etc. I immediately thought of Sonnanstine and whether there could exist a family that underperformed as compared to their FIP/tRA. This also implies that there is a better measure for looking at what a pitcher has done. Maybe this family could be called the “hit-hard” family.

by rglass44 on Jan 6, 2009 4:03 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

The problem is that he may be the only member

He’s just very unique. Scott Baker was pretty close in ’07 but they went in different directions last year. Who would make up that group? Maybe Kevin Millwood.

by tallyray on Jan 6, 2009 4:17 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

It might be hard to try to find out

It may be time consuming, and the issue with how you define “under-perform” could come into play. Is ERA a good measure? A guy could just have a bad defense behind him. It is tricky, though.

by rglass44 on Jan 6, 2009 4:31 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

You'd want to use something like PZR.

PZR is like UZR (or any other advanced fielding metric) in that it measure the likelihood that a pitcher’s batted balls become hits (and what type of hits). It’s like tRA, but with much more granular data.

Beyond the Boxscore // Calling BJ Upton lazy is lazy.

by Sky Kalkman on Jan 6, 2009 8:28 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Interesting thoughts on Sonny

and as for Balfour, there are a handful of relievers who have been very effective for years out of the pen using his method. I think that gives him so hope. Then again there have been plenty who have got rocked eventually. I have faith in Balfour, I guess because from what I saw last year I woudl lump him in with the guys who dominate the league using that method, although his 2007 season makes you wonder

by Rays4242 on Jan 6, 2009 4:25 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Another member would be Yusmeiro Petit

There are probably others too. The point is that usually guys who get hit hard off their fastballs are weeded out in the minor leagues. That’s why there’s a very strong correlation between minor league BABIP and major league success.

Vogt early, Vogt often.

by Brickhaus on Jan 6, 2009 5:14 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs