Projecting the Pitchers

Yesterday, after the Burrell signing, I took a look at how the position players should project offensively and defensively. We came away with a projection of +31 WAR from the position players alone. Today, I'll take a look at the pitchers and see where that leaves us.

I used the NLRS method to get the WAR figures. I used Marcels FIP projections and some IP estimations based on Marcels and what I think about the way the rotation and bullpen will shake out. From there, I figured that Shields, Kazmir, Sonnanstine, Garza, and Price would only start. I assumed Talbot and Niemann would see half their IP in relief and half as spot-starters. Everyone else I used the bullpen figures.

Methodology:

A. For innings as a starter: (5.75-FIP)

For innings as a Reliever: (4.75-FIP)

B. IP/9

C. A*B=NLRS

Here are the findings. And of course WAR is just NLRS/10.

Age IP FIP NLRS WAR
James Shields 28 200 3.88 41.56 4.16
Andy Sonnanstine 26 180 3.96 35.80 3.58
Matt Garza 26 170 4.10 31.17 3.12
Scott Kazmir 25 170 3.82 36.46 3.65
David Price 24 150 4.16 26.50 2.65
J.P. Howell 26 80 3.95 7.11 0.71
Jeff Niemann 26 80 4.53 6.40 0.64
Grant Balfour 32 70 3.60 8.94 0.89
Joe Nelson 35 70 4.21 4.20 0.42
Dan Wheeler 32 65 4.15 4.33 0.43
Chad Bradford 35 65 3.93 5.92 0.59
Mitch Talbot 26 50 4.72 2.94 0.29
Troy Percival 40 40 4.67 0.36 0.04
Juan Salas 31 35 4.66 0.35 0.03
Jason Hammel 27 20 4.82 -0.16 -0.02
Total 1445 4.08 211.88 21.19

Derek Rodriguez did not have a projection, so he wasn't included. The total of 1445 IP is just shy of the 1447 2/3 from last year (which was a little higher than LA), so I just used an estimation of a round number.

So with a 21 WAR total for the pitching staff and a 31 WAR total for the position players, we have QUITE the team on our hands. You are looking at a 52 WAR team. This team projects to win 100 games based on my very crude estimations. 100 MOTHER FREAKING GAMES PEOPLE!

The most amazing aspect to me is these figures seem reasonable. None of these numbers screams unlikely, same with the position players. We could be looking at 100-win team in the best division in baseball.

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