Burrell in 2010

by R.J. Anderson on Jan 6, 2009 7:52 PM EST

Rightfully so, most are thinking about 2009 with Burrell, but that doesn't (nor should it) stop us from thinking about 2010. Using PECOTA (since 2006) and ZiPS comparables from previous years, I ran the FanGraphs age uh...graphs for each pair and Burrell. Let's just say I'm a little less encouraged about 2010's production than I was yesterday.

The comparisons:

Almost every comparable player - including guys like John Jaha and most of those listed above - fell off, or at least declined, from age 32 to age 33. This is a trend, not a definite, and it's obviously quite possible that Burrell is an outlier who performs beyond age 32, 33, 34 and so forth. Unlikely, but possible. It's also worth mentioning that the wOBA is neither park or league adjusted.

What does this mean? Well, it supports the length of the contract for one. We knew players with "old people skills" declined at a faster rate than normal, and this simply verifies that line of thinking. Do I expect Burrell to collapse in 2010? Absolutely not, but the chance for one is perhaps higher for Burrell than any other player on the Rays roster.

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Eh, you'd project everybody to be worse two years down the road once they're past 30.

And none of the comps fell off a cliff. So not only do I not buy into this type of thing anyway, I doubly don’t buy into it.

Beyond the Boxscore // Calling BJ Upton lazy is lazy.

by Sky Kalkman on Jan 6, 2009 8:26 PM EST reply actions

Thomas/Miligan fell below league average.

You’re correct that nobody is falling into replacement level area though.

by R.J. Anderson on Jan 6, 2009 9:50 PM EST up reply actions

Why do you hate the troops?

Anyway, as I was lying in the puddle, I think I may have found a way for us to get Bonds and Griffey, and we wouldn't have to give up that much.

~George Costanza~

by Sandy Kazmir on Jan 6, 2009 8:58 PM EST reply actions

From what I can see

He has been much more consistent that most of his coparables. Guys like Thornton, Bailey, Burroughs, Ensberg and Luzinski were all over the place. Up and down almost every single season. Since his drop of in 03, he has climbed back to be one of the most cosistent power hitters of the past decade. Pretty sure they said he was the only (or one of two) hitters to hit at least 20+ HR every year for the past 8 seasons.

While his drop off in 03 looks bad and inconsistent with his career wOBA, there are two ways to look at it.

First off, maybe the league adjusted and he just failed to adjust back. Then from there he made the necessary adjustments and climbed back up into being a very consistent performer.

However, the more likely thing that happened is that he was just really, really unlucky that year, ala Nick Swisher 08. If you look at his LD% for 03, it was actually higher (21.5) than his career average (21.1), yet it resulted in a career worst .245 BABIP, much lower than his career .304 BABIP. While his FB, GB, BB (slight drop of 1.1%), and K percentage all remained around his average peripherals, his ISO dropped dramaically from .263 to .195 (career .228), further resulting in a career low 12.6 % FB/HR. Maybe an injury hampered his power, thus resulting in less fly balls leaving the yard, Im not sure. Its also worth mentioning that his ISO last season was his best since 02.

Im not sure what was the point of all my rambling was, especially since I am so new to stats and Im sure I have made some theoretical flaw in my reasoning. If there is a point to all this, its that even with what seemed like a horrible dip in production in 03, he really wasnt that bad, just unlucky. Thus, he has always remained a very, very consistent slugger, something we can take solace in.

by BossmanJunior333 on Jan 6, 2009 10:14 PM EST reply actions

One word

Outlier

Anyway, as I was lying in the puddle, I think I may have found a way for us to get Bonds and Griffey, and we wouldn't have to give up that much.

~George Costanza~

by Sandy Kazmir on Jan 6, 2009 10:27 PM EST up reply actions

I read that

Burrell had a wrist injury that cost him 40 games in 04, limiting him to under 500 ABs and hurting his overall numbers. However, you notice that his wOBA was still below his career average, while his peripherals (just like in 03) all remained consistent. Just like in 03 through, even though he had 24 HR, his ISO was still way down (.199), much lower than his career average. So maybe a wrist injury was the reason for a drop in power in 03 and 04? Ehh just speculating.

by BossmanJunior333 on Jan 6, 2009 10:42 PM EST up reply actions