Sonnanstine Is Slicker Than Your Average

by Tommy Rancel on Jan 7, 2009 5:23 PM EST Comment 41 comments

Most of the time a team, or more commonly, it’s fanbase overvalues their own players. We see this all the time when people try and make "fantasy" trades. For example, a Yankee fan would probably think Melky Cabrera for Carl Crawford is a fair trade, because well, Melky Cabrera is a NEW YORK YANKEE. As Rays fans, we are no different, but sometimes there is the rare occasion when a player is both undervalued by the rest of the league as well as his own fanbase.

Go ask some of your friends, both Rays fans as well as other teams fans, if they had one choice of the following names, who they would pick first for their team? Carlos Zambrano, Mark Buehrle, Daisuke Matsuzaka and Andy Sonnanstine. You’d probably see a lot of votes split amongst the first three, but pretty much none to Sonnanstine, after all Sonny is just a 4/5 starter at best….to the charts.

Here are the averages for all four over the last 2 seasons

2 yr average	K/BB	FIP	tRA
A	3.54	4.09	4.54
B	1.78	4.41	4.67
C	2.63	4.10	4.56
D	2.08	4.13	4.80

Based on the numbers they Rank :A, slightly over C and D slightly over B. Now by name that would be: Sonnanstine, Buehrle, Matsuzaka, Zambrano.

When thinking about Sonnanstine's value, the majority of fans(R.J) severely underestimate him. He's better than Jon Garland and Oliver Perez, and both are looking at multi-year deals around $10 million a season. He's better than Gavin Floyd, who was recently rumored to be in a straight up swap for Brian Roberts.

This is not to say Sonny is a #1 starter or he will be down the line, but most people don't even think of Sonny as a #3 guy. They also don't think of him in terms of a 4yr/$40 million guy or a having a lot of trade value. However, if he puts up a season in 2009, similar to his 2008, then maybe they should.

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Wow! That dpesn't even put in his ability not to let up stolen bases too!

Woonsocket Rocket!

by raysbball on Jan 7, 2009 6:00 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

I still think Sonnanstine should be our #4 next year

First off, with Price as the number 5 starter, we can skip him a few times through the season to limit his IP to around 150 and 25+ GS.

Secondly, I think it varies the looks much better. It keeps Garza and Price seperated (two hard throwers with excellent breaking pitches) and Sonny and Shields seperated (two control pitchers who dont throw hard).

Lastly, just like how Shields keeps the pen fresh for Kazmir, Sonny would do the same for Price. Aside from Shields, Sonny was the next best pitcher when it came to going deep into games. Price and Kazmir, as it stands now, will likely have the shortest IP/GS.

by BossmanJunior333 on Jan 7, 2009 6:09 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Rancel

Secrets

Anyway, as I was lying in the puddle, I think I may have found a way for us to get Bonds and Griffey, and we wouldn't have to give up that much.

~George Costanza~

by Sandy Kazmir on Jan 7, 2009 6:17 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Also Edwin Jackson has so much potential

He throws really hard as well.

Anyway, as I was lying in the puddle, I think I may have found a way for us to get Bonds and Griffey, and we wouldn't have to give up that much.

~George Costanza~

by Sandy Kazmir on Jan 7, 2009 6:17 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

My only problem with Sonny is

he doesn’t go as deep as Buehrle or Zambrano

by Raymondo on Jan 7, 2009 6:47 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

He averaged over 6 per start.

That is pretty deep. I think this year that number will go up as he won’t have those few very-short outtings and have more long outtings. That may also have something to do w/ management as well.

by rglass44 on Jan 7, 2009 6:54 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

I agree with that

I am so happy he was not traded

by Raymondo on Jan 7, 2009 8:24 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Thank heavens the Rays aren't dumb.

by R.J. Anderson on Jan 7, 2009 8:40 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Dude, there's only 1 Roy Halladay.

You’ve said the same thing about Sonny and Shields, the two pitchers who had the least trouble getting deep into games; the two guys who are the most effective at saving the bullpen. Your expectations are way too high.

by kericr on Jan 7, 2009 6:59 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

My favorite thing about Sonny:

His athleticism. He’s a good hitter, he’s graceful on the mound, he controls the running game as a righty, he’s versatile, etc. He even bats LH!

by rglass44 on Jan 7, 2009 6:56 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Agreed

I could see him having a very good and long career in the NL. Another hidden advantage is that he most likely won’t have any huge problems with injuries. If Kazmir is Koufax Jr., Sonny is a righthanded Moyer

Anyway, as I was lying in the puddle, I think I may have found a way for us to get Bonds and Griffey, and we wouldn't have to give up that much.

~George Costanza~

by Sandy Kazmir on Jan 7, 2009 7:00 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Correction

Sonnanstine is a Brad Radke.

Vogt early, Vogt often.

by Brickhaus on Jan 7, 2009 7:14 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

It all unraveled pretty quickly for Radke at the end, gotta respect how he gutted through that last season with a torn up wing

Seems like an apt description guy flew under the radar and had great K:BB for most of his career.

Anyway, as I was lying in the puddle, I think I may have found a way for us to get Bonds and Griffey, and we wouldn't have to give up that much.

~George Costanza~

by Sandy Kazmir on Jan 7, 2009 7:16 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Very similar stuff too

Brad Radke’s are rare though. He’s the first example I can usually think of for a successful finesse righty.

Vogt early, Vogt often.

by Brickhaus on Jan 7, 2009 7:19 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Greg Maddux?

by twenty5psi on Jan 7, 2009 9:52 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Who?

Anyway, as I was lying in the puddle, I think I may have found a way for us to get Bonds and Griffey, and we wouldn't have to give up that much.

~George Costanza~

by Sandy Kazmir on Jan 7, 2009 10:08 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Maddux wasn't really finesse

He could bump it up into the 94 and perhaps even 95 range at times. Sitting between 88-92 in his prime. His fastball, when movement was factored into it, was a plus pitch, made an elite pitch because of his obscene command.

Tools Whore

Sign Bonds!

by Tyler on Jan 7, 2009 10:30 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

OMFGRFLMAO

Brad Radke’s Baseball Reference page has the best sponsorship EVER.

http://www.baseball-reference.com/r/radkebr01.shtml

Vogt early, Vogt often.

by Brickhaus on Jan 7, 2009 7:16 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

I hate when I have bluwood

Anyway, as I was lying in the puddle, I think I may have found a way for us to get Bonds and Griffey, and we wouldn't have to give up that much.

~George Costanza~

by Sandy Kazmir on Jan 7, 2009 7:24 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

hahaha

that’s awesome

by mittens on Jan 7, 2009 9:25 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Tampa Jesuit FTW!

by rglass44 on Jan 7, 2009 7:32 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Plus he's really good at ping-pong...

It’s on YouTube…or at least it was.

"I never threw an illegal pitch. The trouble is, once in a while I toss one that ain't never been seen by this generation." - Satchel Paige

by Steve Slowinski on Jan 7, 2009 11:12 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

If Sonny's ERA looks as good as his TRA

His trade value will increase tremendously. I still question whether that will happen, but it would be nice.

Vogt early, Vogt often.

by Brickhaus on Jan 7, 2009 7:13 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Would you want to trade him then, though?

I was discussing this w/ RJ. If he had a 3.90 ERA next year, then his value would be very high. What would make it worth trading him?

by rglass44 on Jan 7, 2009 7:34 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

What would make it worth trading him?

Having to pay him that 4/40 contract with Wade Davis approaching usefulness.

Anyway, as I was lying in the puddle, I think I may have found a way for us to get Bonds and Griffey, and we wouldn't have to give up that much.

~George Costanza~

by Sandy Kazmir on Jan 7, 2009 7:39 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Well, that's the thing.

Not knowing what Davis will do coupled with the fact that Sonnanstine won’t see that contract until like 2013, makes me wonder what it would take for me to be happy about trading him. Once I know that his “potential” is “reached.”

by rglass44 on Jan 7, 2009 7:53 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Is Sonny really as good as Matsuzaka?

Last year Sonny had a tRA* of 4.31. Matsuzaka’s was 4.82. Are we to believe that Sonny was not only a better pitcher than Matsuzaka, but a significantly better one?

I agree that Sonny is underrated. I spent most of the months last season lobbying for him. It just seems to reflect poorly on tRA when it rates his season superior to Matsuzaka’s.

by tallyray on Jan 7, 2009 9:24 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Walks matter.

by R.J. Anderson on Jan 7, 2009 9:33 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

This

Sonny doesn’t walk 15 guys per 9

by Erik Hahmann on Jan 7, 2009 9:42 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Yes

by Tommy Rancel on Jan 8, 2009 8:28 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

I understand walks matter....

And of course that’s Matsuzaka’s downfall.

Are we really at the point where we look at players in such a vacuum that everything else is reduced to chance?

Matsuzaka’s career allowed ratios are as follows:

Total: .230/.324/.369
Empty: .249/.339/.387
Men On: .208/.305/.346
RISP: .201/.311/.332

Sonny’s career allowed ratios are: (I’ll only use ’08 since I imagine ’07 defense would make it look worse)

Total: .277/.312/.446
Empty: .271/.310/.347
Men on: .286/.314/.459
RISP: .277/.307/.408

What can we see?
Matsuzaka walks a lot of batters, ISO OBP at roughly .1. Sonny doesn’t, only at around .05.
Matsuzaka does about everything else better. He strikes out more and limits more hits.

I know this is an archaic way of looking at things but are we really saying Sonnanstine is a better pitcher than Matsuzaka?

by tallyray on Jan 8, 2009 6:00 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

If Daisuke can hold hitters to a line of .210/.310/.350 in important situations...

… why not just pitch like that all the time?

Beyond the Boxscore // Calling BJ Upton lazy is lazy.

by Sky Kalkman on Jan 8, 2009 6:55 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

He can't concentrate?

by rglass44 on Jan 8, 2009 7:20 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Edwin?

by R.J. Anderson on Jan 8, 2009 7:33 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

So that number is depressed...

It doesn’t change the fact that he’s .230/.324/.369.

Until the league proves that he can be hit like a normal pitcher I don’t think he should assume his numbers will regress like a normal pitcher. There’s no way a .012 difference in OBP makes up for a .08 difference in slugging.

by tallyray on Jan 9, 2009 8:39 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Also. FIP has Sonny as > Daisuke as well.

by R.J. Anderson on Jan 7, 2009 9:33 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Also, Dice-K's 2008 season is a perfect example of a statistical implosion waiting to happen.

He walked more, and struck out fewer, and yet his ERA went from 4.40 to a 2.90 because of a 80.6% LOB-rate.

My guess is his 2009 looks similar to his 2007, maybe worse if he doesn’t get his walk-rate back down.

tRA and FIP are pointing to Sonny for a reason.

by twenty5psi on Jan 7, 2009 9:49 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

tRA says Sonny had better seasons...

I’m not arguing that Sonny may do better and Matsuzaka may implode.

I’m wondering how we can really say that Sonny was better in ’08 that Daisuke. Can the difference in slugging and average really be attributed to only luck? Are batters really able to make as good of contact of Matsuzaka as they can off of Sonny?

I just have a hard time believing that a comparison between two extremes (and these players are about as extreme as we can get) can be so easily made by just pointing to some statistics and saying “look, see?”

tRA is heavily influences by LD% and Walks. We know about the walks. Sonny and Matsuzaka are awfully similar in LD% and Sonny induces more grounders. So across the board he’s the victor. Is Matsuzaka that lucky?

I also see articles like this one where the author points out the problems with using LD% and how there are many pitchers that constantly outperform the predictions.

by tallyray on Jan 8, 2009 6:21 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

tRA is still a work in progress regardless of what people tell you.

Graham is very, very smart and will adapt it to ensure that it’s the best statistic out there for measuring pitchers contributions, but no one statistic is the end-all beat-all. As close as these figures are there could be some wiggle room, IMO. The issue is that pitching better with MOB is not a skill that has really been sustainable, so unless Matsuzaka figures it out it would seem he’s due to regress. These two are very close in defense-independent stats, so the question then is “where does the discrepancy come from and why?” Sonny should have a great year in 09, but if he once again “underperforms” in the traditional stats I wonder if there is a “type” that is overrated by them.

by rglass44 on Jan 8, 2009 6:36 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

.

http://www.lookoutlanding.com/2009/1/7/711419/interesting-ld-babip-artic#11220712

by R.J. Anderson on Jan 8, 2009 6:37 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

I agree with all that...

But why isn’t that pointed out to begin with?

Some people throw out tRA and say it shows Sonny is a better pitcher and that people don’t understand that. When that’s questioned then walks are blamed. When something else is pointed out then we blame situational stats. Yet the split stats don’t tell the whole story either. Matsuzaka has better rates across the board. Sure his splits are fluky, but even if those were regressed he still would have better numbers than Sonny because of allowing such fewer hits and a much lower SLG% (though that’s depressed a lot by hits).

I don’t doubt that Graham is smart, he’s come up with something that seems like a significant improvement over past metrics, and it’s much easier to understand. But it is still new and it still seems to have flaws (like every stat). I think better understanding comes fromm questioning why someone is under or overrated instead of just pointing and walking away.

by tallyray on Jan 9, 2009 8:45 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs