Community Projections: Carlos Pena
by Tommy Rancel on Jan 8, 2009 10:35 AM EST
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PrintBA/OBP/SLG
| Pena | BA | OBP | SLG |
| 2007 | 0.282 | 0.411 | 0.627 |
| 2008 | 0.247 | 0.377 | 0.494 |
| Marcels | 0.261 | 0.379 | 0.524 |
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.265/.395/.520
Anyway, as I was lying in the puddle, I think I may have found a way for us to get Bonds and Griffey, and we wouldn't have to give up that much.
~George Costanza~
I posted this once before but the thread dropped off the front page very quickly
Can we do this for pitchers? With the triple crown stats? Well, wins don’t really prove anything so maybe we can do K’s, ERA and……something
Pena
.268/.395/.560
Evan Longoria and David Price - the fight for my heart
Maybe for pitchers
IP, Ks, BBs? I guess I wouldn’t mind guessing ERAs, even though they’re flukey.
Vogt early, Vogt often.
IP and ERA (or FIP).
Those are enough to project value.
Please not wins.
Beyond the Boxscore // Calling BJ Upton lazy is lazy.
We are knocking out the position players first
and then we’re doing pitchers.
by Tommy Rancel on Jan 8, 2009 12:47 PM EST up reply actions
You're KO'ing position players
and doing pitchers. Something is wrong with you Tommy. Seek help.
Anyway, as I was lying in the puddle, I think I may have found a way for us to get Bonds and Griffey, and we wouldn't have to give up that much.
~George Costanza~
by Sandy Kazmir on Jan 8, 2009 12:55 PM EST up reply actions
Is anyone coming up with a community average of these things?
I imagine the means come back pretty nice looking.
Anyway, as I was lying in the puddle, I think I may have found a way for us to get Bonds and Griffey, and we wouldn't have to give up that much.
~George Costanza~
I was thinking the same thing
Not only that, but if there is a way to distribute at bats among all the projections and possibly get a rough estimate of how many runs our projections would result in. That would be cool. I think we should do projections for anyone who stands a good chance of contributing this year, ditribute the at bats among them appropriately, and see how many runs our projections would result in.
by BossmanJunior333 on Jan 8, 2009 2:43 PM EST up reply actions
Yeah, I am.
I have Aki, B.J.,and Evan done. I had a pretty graph too.
by R.J. Anderson on Jan 8, 2009 2:48 PM EST up reply actions
Sweet
Would you be able, as Bossman suggested, derive WAR out of that. If not we could always go back and put how many HR’s and RBI’s we think they will have.
Anyway, as I was lying in the puddle, I think I may have found a way for us to get Bonds and Griffey, and we wouldn't have to give up that much.
~George Costanza~
This is essentially what I did in my two posts
It can be done by just taking 1.75*OBP+SLG/3 and using that instead of OBA.
Yes, we should be.
Using a rather rough method of pulling wOBA out of OPS.
by R.J. Anderson on Jan 8, 2009 8:21 PM EST up reply actions
.268/.396/.555
Just your average .950 OPS season.
Giving Aybar some time at first on days when lefties are pitching might not be a bad idea. Pena still had basically a 1.000 OPS against RHP in 08, lefties were the problem. Although looking at the splits he had a .250BABIP against lefties in 08’, so maybe he’s do for some positive regression.
.280/.400/.600
I think he gets 135 starts and a lot of rest against lefties, hence the improved numbers.
The truth will set you free, but first it will piss you off.
.260/.380/.530
Basically last year with a bump for no injury. Which matches his Marcel pretty closely.
Beyond the Boxscore // Calling BJ Upton lazy is lazy.
Does anyone think Pena might be a second-half player?
2007 Pre-allstar: .287/.395/.609
2007 Post-allstar: .277/.424/.642
2008 Pre-allstar: .236/.340/.438
2008 Post-allstar: .260/.418/.561
Career Pre-allstar: .241/.337/.451
Career Post-alstar: .260/.370/.534
Further, August has always been his best month(.283/.400/.603), hitting 26% of his career home runs that month and over 50% of his career home runs the last two months of the season. However, he has also recieved the most at bats those months (42% of career at bats).
Just a thought.
by BossmanJunior333 on Jan 8, 2009 7:10 PM EST reply actions
Well his first half in 07 wasn't exactly slump-like.
Carlos is at his best when he is taking pitches and seeing the ball well, I think part of it was he was feeling the pressure of his new contract and was being to aggressive at the plate and his hand injury didn’t help matters. Just lead to an under-performing first half. If he sticks to his hitting approach and stays healthy, his 08’ second half is probably a good measure of what he could do over the couse of 2009.
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