Final 2009 Attendance Figures for the Tampa Bay Rays

by Steve Slowinski on Oct 10, 2009 7:00 AM EDT

First, just the facts:

Rays' Attendance Figures

	2008	2009	Change
Average per game =	22,259	23,147	+3.8%
Total attendance =	1,780,791	1,874,962	+5.0%
Ranking (out of 30) =	26	23	+3

No matter how optimistically you try to look at the numbers, the final attendance figures for the 2009 Rays are rather underwhelming. Coming off of a year where the Rays made the World Series, posting a final attendance figure below 25K per game seems rather ludicrous. And it is. I'm not going to attempt to spin it in a positive light; it's really disappointing. I'm sure this is far below what Matt Silverman and Andrew Friedman were hoping to draw this year.

That said, I believe we should hold off on the torches and pitchforks, and save judgement on whether Tampa Bay is a "Baseball Town" or not for another day. Just as you could easily make the argument that Tampa isn't proving to be a competitive baseball market, you could easily make the argument that we still haven't given the area enough time. Considering this was only our franchises' second competitive year, it's way too early to declare one way or the other that the issue is closed for debate. And even if the Rays were to move, it wouldn't be for another few years at the very earliest, so we have plenty of time to assess how the Tampa-St. Pete fanbase develops.

Since this is DRaysBay, though, we can't leave our analysis at such a surface-level depth. To only look at the obvious numbers without attempting to dig below them and investigate more...well, that just doesn't happen here. I don't claim that I'm going to reach any final conclusions or find definitive data; I'm just hoping to provide the Rays' 2009 attendance numbers with some context.

The Recession

First, as you all probably know, the US has been going through a bit of a rough stretch recently, economically-speaking. This recession hit baseball pretty hard this season, with total attendance for all of major league baseball down around 7% from last year. For a look at how it specifically affected every team, take a look at this spreadsheet. You'll notice that the Rays were one of only 8 teams to increase attendance this season, and they had the 5th highest rate of attendance increase in all of baseball. At the same time, the Tampa-St. Pete metropolitan area has been hit extremely hard by the recession (11.3% current unemployment rate; MLB average = 9.6% unemployment rate).

Between 2008 and 2009, there is technically no direct correlation between a team's change in attendance and their city's unemployment rate, but I don't think anyone would argue that the decreased attendance around the league had nothing at all to do with the recession. The lack of a correlation is probably because there are many other factors at play which can influence attendance, like new stadiums, changes in competitiveness, Zack Grienke (really, why else would the Royals have increased attendance this year?), strength of the fanbase, etc. Despite the lack of correlation, having a high unemployment rate can't be a good sign for your team's attendance at games...

Mid-season Changes in Competitiveness

Up until around mid-August, the Rays were well within the hunt for the playoffs at only around 5 games back in the division and a couple back from the Wild Card; however, on August 12th, the Rays fell to 10 games back in the division and their playoff odds were severely diminished. Exactly one month from that day, the Rays were in the midst of that 11 game losing streak that dropped them to 20 games back from the division, eliminating any small glimmer of hope that may have been lurking. Take a look at what happened to our attendance per game average after these two dates:

Attendance/Game changes
(Quick note: this graph starts in mid-May, when our attendance/game average had leveled from its early season fluctuations.)

While these drops in attendance may have been a result of random variation over the course of the season (weekday games, poor competition, etc), we definitely dropped off quite steeply after falling out of contention. If we were in the thick of the Wild Card hunt, would we have drawn less than 20K/game against the Red Sox in early September? Even though it was a weekday series, I highly doubt it.

Pricing Changes

Despite the fact that we only increased attendance a small amount this year, our amount of revenue from the regular season most likely increased by a larger degree. How come?

Prices	2008	2009	Percent Change
Avg. Ticket	17.23	18.35	6.5%
Avg. Premium Ticket	57.28	59.82	4.4%
Beer	5	8	60.0%
Soft Drink	3.75	5	33.3%
Hot Dog	3.25	5	53.8%
Cap	15	18	20.0%

Notice I said regular season. Since we're not in the playoffs, our total team revenue will definitely decrease this year; however, as far as regular seasons go, we're making more than we did last year and probably more than we've made in any regular season in recent memory.

Wrap-Up

I don't have any agenda in presenting the information that I have; I merely wanted to show a couple of attendance-related points that I'd noticed. Yes, it stinks to have attendance as low as we did this - there's no real way around that - but it's very tough to tell what this means about the Tampa-St. Pete area going forward. There are indications that attendance should improve in the future, but then again, there are so many variables at play, it's tough to say with any certainty exactly what our attendance will look like next year. In a similar vein, it's also really tough to say what our attendance this year means for the Rays' payroll going forward. Feel free to interpret the data I've presented on your own and come to your own conclusions. Personally, I'm going to remain hesitantly optimistic about the future. If the economy improves by next season and we start off the year on a hot-streak...well, who knows?

** All data courtesy of Baseball-Reference and Team Marketing Reports.

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Comments

Baseball attendance and unemployment

Florida’s unemployment rate during the recession has been consistently over the national average. Currently 10.7% statewide vs. 9.7% nationwide. Additionally you have to consider the number of retirees who go to games, and the hit their investments (and corresponding disposable income) took during the financial collapse. Frankly I’m happy to see the marginal improvement.

Look at Detroit. They put a winning team on the field for the whole season, and lost nearly 8000 in average attendance between 2008 and 2009. Of course, the unemployment rate in Michigan is all the way up to 15.2%…jeez.

Maybe I’m just an old fashioned BJ suck-off-er. (Good call Sandy)

by Lurch's Lobbyists on Oct 10, 2009 7:56 AM EDT reply actions

wow, on both accounts

by vivaelpujols on Oct 10, 2009 7:58 AM EDT up reply actions

I didn't even see the part of the post that dealth with the recession

Yeah, it’s really unfortunate…

Maybe I’m just an old fashioned BJ suck-off-er. (Good call Sandy)

by Lurch's Lobbyists on Oct 10, 2009 8:00 AM EDT up reply actions

This is sad

If this keeps up with the season we have had- a move to Vegas might be in the future.

J.J LOVE SPREADS while RAHEEM MORRIS'S PLAN FOR NFLDOMINECION IS COMING TO AN END.

by 4QB on Oct 10, 2009 8:56 AM EDT reply actions

If people wont drive Tampa ----> St. Pete to sustain attendance

Why would you put them somewhere that will require people to drive L.A. -→ Vegas?

by GomesSweetGomes on Oct 10, 2009 10:36 AM EDT up reply actions

A move is surely in the future..

the question is where in Florida will they go? Lets just hope it is Florida.

by tbmd on Oct 10, 2009 10:47 AM EDT reply actions

Orlando

has a good base for the Magic- I suppose its worth a shot.

J.J LOVE SPREADS while RAHEEM MORRIS'S PLAN FOR NFLDOMINECION IS COMING TO AN END.

by 4QB on Oct 10, 2009 11:23 AM EDT up reply actions

Not a chance in Orlando

Local population would never approve the funds for it. If the Magic weren’t winning, the new arena never would have been approved. If someone wants to bring a team here, they better be willing to pay at least half of the funds to build a stadium. No sense in doing that when Portland or Charlotte would bend over and pay most of the bills for a stadium right now.

Dockoftherays.com

by Jason Collette on Oct 10, 2009 12:17 PM EDT up reply actions

There aren't many places at all

In florida, then- gainesville, tallahassee, Daytona beach is all i can think of.

J.J LOVE SPREADS while RAHEEM MORRIS'S PLAN FOR NFLDOMINECION IS COMING TO AN END.

by 4QB on Oct 10, 2009 12:43 PM EDT up reply actions

If BoA leaves then Charlotte isn't much of an option either

If they leave they will take the number one taxable entitiy/employer with them. That market can barely support the two teams they have. As for Portland, it’s so far away I may lose interest, but all I have heard is good things about the area.

Get well soon DM

by Sandy Kazmir on Oct 10, 2009 1:46 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions

Digging deeper into the unemployment numbers in Tampa/St. Pete, the actual types of jobs lost are affecting ticket sales

Construction industry employment in Florida has dropped 37% from the high two and a half years ago. The Tampa/St. Pete numbers are worse than that. One of the underlying factors that I believe has hit attendance more in Tampa/St. Pete than other markets is the drop in the housing industry in particular. The housing industry contributes to so many other services like, furniture, appliances, commercial development, banking, realty agents etc.. While the overall unemployment in Florida and our area has gone risen it is particularly devastating in the construction industry. I would say it is a safe bet that people in the construction industry are more likely to be buying game tickets in good years than some other industries. As an example, health care employment has actually risen in Florida, but I don’t see the people in that industry as being as large of a base for sporting events.

Gary Williams for President!
Put Rose in the Hall of Fame

by terp12 on Oct 10, 2009 10:53 AM EDT reply actions

has gone risen*

Sorry, I sound like an idiot there. I should have proof read.

Gary Williams for President!
Put Rose in the Hall of Fame

by terp12 on Oct 10, 2009 12:11 PM EDT up reply actions

that's peculiar

Really surprised that, while you mentioned falling off the division lead in mid-August, you didn’t mention that were still only a few games back of the Wild Card in late August. One would still think fans would turn out in September for a team still in the playoff hunt, at least at the beginning of the month. I wonder what could have happened to turn them off prematurely?

by nomoredevil on Oct 10, 2009 12:55 PM EDT reply actions

Overall the attendance was pretty decent considering the weaker year

But the issue is with the Sept 1-3 series vs Boston. 5GB, with like 25 left to play, very possible to come back and the team gets attendance like it was playing the Royals & half the fans were for Boston. That was depressing, and if it was fan backlash from trading Kazmir, then there’s gonna be a lot of issues building a fan base going forward.

by Transplanted on Oct 10, 2009 8:34 PM EDT reply actions

Economics

I attend about one dozen games a year. This season I only attended 6 games. The chief reason was economic. I am retired living off a pension and investmenrt income. My investment income took a big hit because of the recession. That, on top of the fact that attending Rays games became more expensive influenced my decision to pass on Rays games I would otherwise have attended. It costs a minimum of $100 for two of us to go to a game. That cost two years ago was $75. The biggest culprit was parking going from $5 to $15. Concessions are up as well as cost of tickets. My income is down and not likely to increase much. I am also too old to be employed. My only option is to cut back, which I have done. I’d like to go to more games but have to accept staying home more often and watching on TV.

by Bob Woodruff on Oct 11, 2009 12:18 PM EDT reply actions

Your points on parking and TV are significant here

Wasn’t this the season free parking was largely dropped? That should signal a significant changed revenue stream completely unaccounted for in the analysis – no discredit to Steve though; that wasn’t part of his discussion. I’ve no idea how to account for such, but it could be a significant positive revenue number under the radar.

The other point is TV – did the Rays see positive trends in viewership and revenue on a local level? Did their contracts offer better paybacks with better ratings? As a possible downside, revenue sharing payments could fall some if the Rays gained disproportunately, but there’s little chance this represents a net negative – 69% of increased local revenue is retained.

The fact is in a tough economic environment Tampa did okay. And the late season disappointment clearly depressed the closing numbers. I’d say there’s still reason for optimism, but maintaining competitiveness is very important. The bar has been raised.

by nyyfaninlaaland on Oct 12, 2009 8:32 PM EDT up reply actions

As long as numbers are rising, there is no need to question whether or not we are.

Me babe, steppin' out
Into the night, into the light

by Orlando Rays on Oct 11, 2009 9:03 PM EDT reply actions

But Stu needs to remember something, too:

We’re not selling out, so it does not make wise business sense to raise prices.

Me babe, steppin' out
Into the night, into the light

by Orlando Rays on Oct 11, 2009 9:04 PM EDT up reply actions

A couple of points to consider

1.) The Rays have only been in existance for 11 seasons and have had only 2 winning seasons.
2.) US Census and conservative estimates put the transplant population in Tampa/St. Pete/Clearwater MSA (Metropolitan Statistical Area) at 60-70%. That means that over half the population down here is potentially rooting for another team. And while some have converted (like myself) it will take more than 2 winning seasons to ge tto that same level of devotion. 3.) The population within a 30 minute drive of the Trop is only 600,000 - which I believe is the lowest in the majors. When you factor in point #2, that number drops to under 300,000 (potentially).
4.) I cringe whenever I hear people compare the fan bases up north with ours. Those fans have been raised to worship those teams from cradle to grave because they’ve been around for decades, and in some cases for over a century. Big difference!
5.) Despite the Yankees having 8 million people in NYC and about 15 million within a half hour’s drive, they still were unable to sellout Yankee stadium this year - same with Citi Field.
6.) Like it or not, geography plays a role – especially for midweek games. Take a look at weekend attendance throughout the year and the average is pretty much where it needs to be. For the 1.2 million in Hillsborough, 500k in Pasco, and 600k in Manatee/Sarasota - who wants to drive over the five, JUST FIVE, bridges to get to the trop during rush hour, try and get a close parking spot, stay until at least 10-10:30 (on average) and then get home at midnight (if you’re lucky) and then have to go to work the next day. Putting the new stadium in north pinellas (gateway/Carillon area) would put it a lot closer to the Hillsborough/Pasco population.

In summary - I think given the factors above (not even considering the current state of the economy) , a 3.8% increase is pretty darn impressive. The team, and the talking heads need to give this market time to become “fanatical” about the Rays. Kids born in ’98 are just now becoming real fans and they are some of the most fanatical. As time progresses and more people are “born and raised” with the Rays, and the Rays stay competitive, attendance will continue to increase.

by mkirch72 on Oct 13, 2009 11:22 AM EDT reply actions