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Potential Buy-Low Candidate: J.R. Towles

Acquiring a new catcher is probably the top priority this off-season. Gregg Zaun may not return, Dioner Navarro turned back into a pumpkin, and the other 40-man options are reserves at best. With limited free agent options (read: budget) the Rays are probably getting said new catcher via trade. This means, the catcher likely won't be a heaven-sent instrument capable of destroying planets with a single flick of the wrist.

Enter J.R. Towles.  He's not going to destroy planets -- well, maybe, if you count those little miniature glass globes as 'planets' - but he's almost certainly undervalued by his current team.

In 268 major league plate appearances, Towles has hit .188/.280/.329 - which translates into a .269 wOBA - and has thrown out 30% of attempted thieves. Nothing special about that. In the minors, the soon-to-be 26-year-old has showcased skills that made him one of the trendy rookie picks not long ago. Towles hit .289/.375/.455 in 420 plate appearances at Round Rock Triple-A and had a .864 OPS throughout his minor league career.

Baseball America ranked Towles as the Astros best prospect prior to last season. They had this to say about him:

Strengths: Towles has a chance to have average or better skills across the board. He has good pitch recognition, handles the bat well and controls the strike zone, so he should hit for average. He's adding strength and starting to pull the ball more often, so he could develop into a 15-20 home run threat. He's more agile and runs better than most catchers, with average speed and double-digit steal totals in each of his three full seasons. Behind the plate, Towles moves and receives well and calls a good game. He has a strong arm and his athleticism gives him a quick release.

Weaknesses: Because he has played the equivalent of just two full minor league seasons, Towles still needs polish. His primary goal is to get stronger, so he can tap into more of his power potential and be more durable. He can get pull-happy at times and should drive more balls to the opposite field when the opportunity presents itself.

Jason Kendall was the hot comparison and prior to starring in the 2009 horror project known as "Worst Catcher in Baseball" Kendall was a pretty nice player himself. From 2002 until 2006 (ages 28-32) he averaged roughly 3.5 WAR per season. If Towles can turn in three straight 2.5 win seasons he'd be the best catcher in Rays franchise history.

The Rays should have pretty decent knowledge of Towles since Gerry Hunsicker drafted him way back in 2004 while adding Hunter Pence and Ben Zobrist to the Astros system that same year. Further Houston drafted Jason Castro in the first round in the 2008 draft and Towles suffered through a fractured nose and hamstring issues this year, which lead them to play Ivan Rodriguez and Humberto Quintero at the major league level. Simply put: Ed Wade probably isn't very enamored.

CHONE had Towles with a .320 wOBA and ZiPS said .294. For reference: Dioner Navarro's wOBA was under .260. So yeah, it's safe to say almost anything would be an upgrade over 2009 Navarro. Further, Towles' major league walk and strikeout ratios aren't too far off his Triple-A ratios, meaning the only thing missing is the BABIP. Maybe he has an issue with getting the bat knocked out of his hands in the majors, but that's impossible to tell in only 250 plate appearances spread out over three seasons.

Maybe we can get Felipe Paulino thrown into the deal as well.

0 recs  |  Comment 31 comments |

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I'm sure its been posted on here before, but...

what was Navi’s WAR last year (2008)?

by tbmd on Oct 12, 2009 8:45 AM EDT reply actions   0 recs

2.7

http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=3179&position=C

FREE SPEACH is a myth. There is no such thing as 100% free speech. You cannot go into a movie theater and say "FIRE"!…"What? I have freedom of speach!" Bull. Doesnt work that way. Any real lawyer will tell you that.

by Top Gun Numba 1 on Oct 12, 2009 9:37 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Trade for Towles, draft Tebow...

Bring your bible to the game day for pre-game signings, with special guest Ben Zobrist.

by Marky Mark's Third Nipple on Oct 12, 2009 8:55 AM EDT via mobile reply actions   0 recs

Navi returned to being a pumpkin?

I thought he always was……he needs to get his shit together. Navi is better than this mediocracy!

"Doesn't Manny Ramirez look like the monster from Predator??" - Will Farrell as Harry Carey

by Gone Phishing on Oct 12, 2009 10:38 AM EDT reply actions   0 recs

Visitor from the Crawfish Boxes

I think you’ve probably hit the nail on the head by identifying Towles as a buy-low candidate. Despite his promise a couple of seasons ago, he was seriously misused during Cecil Cooper’s reign, which possibly harmed his confidence, and thus, his ability to produce.

Interim manager Dave Clark worked with Towles at AA, and has been trying to rebuild that confidence since he took over the major league. If you ignore the small sample size (a stupid thing to do), Towles has batted .273/.304/.636 since Clark took over and gave Towles more consistent playing time. His last four games definitely showed an upward trend.

I can’t really speak to whether Towles’s BABIP is the result of having the bat knocked out of his hands…you’d have to talk to someone who could actually stomach watching the last month of the season.

In the meantime, Towles’s poor results have definitely hurt his stock with the fanbase. Combined with the fact that folks are looking to Jason Castro to be a franchise-type player, it looks like Towles’s future with the Astros is not too shiny…a fill-in until Castro can get to the majors and a backup after that.

If we traded Towles, we could make do with Quintero and some journeyman for most of the season. I’m pretty unfamiliar with the Rays’ system, so I have no clue what the other end of a trade might look like. That being said, one of the Astros most pressing needs is in the infield, either at SS or at 3B. Do you guys have anyone of Towles’s quality available? He’d probably only need to be better than Tommy Manzella (defensive-whiz shortstop) or Chris Johnson (the closest thing we have to a 3B prospect) to stick on the major league club.

by AstroAndy on Oct 12, 2009 1:03 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

I don't think the Rays would trade any position players

since they have far greater pitching depth in the minors.

Vroom vroom party starter
www.raysprospects.com

by Imperialism32 on Oct 12, 2009 1:42 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

It really is hard to gague Towles value

as a buy low candidate i’m sure the Rays wouldn’t want to trade Bartlett/Brignac for him but if there were some throw-ins on Houstons side one of those two could easily fill your needs. Also the Rays don’t have a third base prospect, unless you count Sean Rodriguez who is a little too much for the Rays to give up seeing as he was the centerpiece of the Kazmir trade.

the ghost of stokes, camp, lugo strikes TB-sept 2009

by CubFanRaysaddict on Oct 12, 2009 2:14 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Elliot Johnson might be of interest.

He wasn’t a top-top prospect, but I think most had him pegged as a major league utility player at least. He plays 2B mostly and has some pop.

Although he’s basically a utility player. Outside of Longoria we don’t have many 3B prospects, and Brignac/Beckham are too much for Towles alone.

by R.J. Anderson on Oct 12, 2009 3:12 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

So I wasn't the only person thinking the Rays should go after Towles?

Nice.

Get him some new scenery and a fresh start.

"I hate the people that love me, and they hate me!"

by Brett Keith on Oct 12, 2009 3:44 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

Towles is the type of player the front office has targeted.

A former top prospect that didn’t play well enough to stick but is still young enough to take a chance on. It just depends on the Astros willingness to cast him aside.

by tallyray on Oct 12, 2009 5:23 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

No. He's expendable with the depth we've accumulated.

He’s valuable, but not irreplaceable.

Tools Whore

by Tyler on Oct 12, 2009 8:14 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Aybar is, at worst, an average Major League player...

That can play multiple infield positions. It seems Towles isnt the long term solution at catcher for the Astros, and he hasnt exactly lit it up in the Bigs. His Round Rock stats are nice, but that is a pretty offense dominated league isnt it?
If the Rays were to include Aybar, the Astros would have to add more to this trade IMO.

by td32 on Oct 13, 2009 11:52 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

I kinda like Towles, but got better suggestions

I like getting Kelly Shoppach, who will likely be non-tendered by the Indians, better than getting Towles for several reasons. For one, he hits a lot of extra base hits; 40% of his career hits are for extra bases. Also, Shoppach can throw out runs real well; he threw out Jacoby Ellsbury, who is really fast. Shoppach has better power numbers too, and we might not have to trade for him,since he will likely be non-tendered. His only down side is his low batting average, but his OBP is pretty good, and he draws lots of walks.

by TBRaysfan009 on Oct 12, 2009 9:03 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

Without knowing much about Shoppach

I can say that him throwing out Jacoby Ellsbury tells me nothing about his defensive ability.

Get well soon DM

by Sandy Kazmir on Oct 13, 2009 2:15 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

I like Shoppach as well

we have scouts to go off of for catcher defense, and, from what I’ve heard, he is considered really good with behind the plate. That and some power, I’d take it. Maybe Cleveland can get Lou Marson actually contributing for them.

by Navi's_Navy on Oct 13, 2009 11:58 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

RJ's gingervitis

will never end, stop burdening us with your obsessions/ how long until you post about the need to sign Matt Murton to supplement Joyce/Crawford/Pena instead of Connor Jackson?

the ghost of stokes, camp, lugo strikes TB-sept 2009

by CubFanRaysaddict on Oct 13, 2009 12:55 AM EDT reply actions   0 recs

i like towelie.

or shoppach. either. just not fat navarro. so sick of fat guys.

Dukes can play C

by daveh33 on Oct 13, 2009 1:26 AM EDT reply actions   0 recs

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