Why The Rays Should Target Kiko Calero
Once upon a time Kiko Calero was a pretty good reliever for the St. Louis Cardinals. In 2003 he posted an FIP of 3.71 with a tRA of 4.45. He was even better in 2004 with a 3.14 FIP and a very good 3.32 tRA. He was traded to the Oakland A's in the Mark Mulder deal.
Over the next three seasons' in Oakland he posted FIPs of 3.58, 2.97 and 4.37 to go along with tRA of 3.89, 3.27, 4.58. After his average showing in 2007 (4.37/4.58) which might be explained by the next part of this sentence, Calero started the 2008 season on the DL with a rotator cuff injury. He pitched just five games for the A's in 08 and was DFA, released and scooped up by the Rangers. He pitched 18 games for their Triple-A affiliate, but never made it back to the big leagues.
In case you haven't noticed, Calero is back in the big leagues and back to his old ways in South Florida.
Right under our noses, Calero pitched 60 innings for the Marlins in 2009 and posted a 2.56 FIP along with a ridiculous 2.49 tRA. His strikeouts per nine were back over 10 for the first time since 2006.
|
|
K/9 |
BB/9 |
HR/9 |
HR/FB |
|
2005 |
8.41 |
2.91 |
0.97 |
8.6 |
|
2006 |
10.4 |
3.72 |
0.62 |
6.1 |
|
2007 |
6.86 |
4.65 |
0.66 |
4.9 |
|
2009 |
10.35 |
4.5 |
0.15 |
1.4 |
*excluding 2008 due to 4.2 innings of Major League work.
Good K rates and acceptable walk rates for the amount of strikeouts. The one thing that instantly jumps out to me is the ridiculously low HR/9 and insanely low HR/FB% this past season. As a predominately flyball pitcher, (46.5% career) both are going to regress regardless of where he pitches in 2010, but the good news is if he regresses to career norms, his career HR/9 of 0.71 and HR/FB% of 6.7 are still good.
Pardon me for bringing up another Rays comparison, but Calero's career year with the Marlins immediately screams of Joe Nelson. Add in Calero's injury history that includes: the rotator cuff, elbow tendonitis and 21 days on the DL this season for shoulder inflammation, and you almost get a déjà vu feeling. However, the only surgery Calero had that I could find on record was to repair a ruptured patella tendon back in 2003 while Nelson has seen his fair share of "the knife."
Despite some similarities from their time with the Marlins and doctors visits, Calero and Nelson are different. Their fastball velocity is similar, around 89-90 mph, but Calero barely throws a change-up, and we all know about Nelson and his Vulcan. Instead, Calero goes to soup de jour of relief pitching and throws his slider more than he does his fastball (55.9% slider career). His slider has always been a plus pitch as had a wSL value of 8.9 this past year.
The plus slider has his swing strike percentage back to pre injury levels of around 12%.
|
|
SwStr% |
K% |
uBB% |
|
2005 |
10.8 |
22.71 |
6.99 |
|
2006 |
12 |
27.8 |
8.71 |
|
2007 |
9.7 |
16.3 |
15 |
|
2009 |
12 |
28.87 |
10.88 |
One of the key stats to look at for any potential free agent signing is his ability to hitters regardless of what side of the plate they hit from. Over the course of his career, Calero has shown the ability to get both sides, especially right handers. However, has improved against lefties in each season presumably thanks to that slider. In 2009 he dominated both.
|
OPSa |
vs. LHB |
vs. RHB |
|
2005 |
0.911 |
0.442 |
|
2006 |
0.784 |
0.564 |
|
2007 |
0.708 |
0.87 |
|
2009 |
0.587 |
0.475 |
Even though Nelson didn't work out as the Rays had hoped, his signing and subsequent contract weren't bad. The Rays took a modest $1.3 million dollar risk on a one-year deal that didn't work out. Given the number of available high leverage relievers on the market, the potential injury risk, and his modest salary of around half a million in 2009, I'd say Calero is in line for a Nelson-esque contract; or at least that's my hope.
The Rays are looking for two or three relievers who have the ability to get hitters out regardless of handiness and the game situation. Potential signings of Calero and Joaquin Benoit could give the Rays just that without putting any pressure on the current payroll structure.
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42 comments
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Comments
Two Words ... Joe Nelson
Absolutely not. NL Bullpen guys get shelled in the AL East. When they go back to the NL their numbers go down.
Go after guys that have at least pitched in the AL before. No more washed up payroll eating has been bullpen guys who are collecting a paycheck from a mid pack NL team that would get shelled in our bullpen.
Troy Percival Russ Springer Joe Nelson … I am tired or seeing these projects.
by PewterPirate55 on Oct 14, 2009 7:35 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
So about the three above average seasons in the AL from Calero...
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by Tommy Rancel on Oct 14, 2009 7:41 AM EDT via mobile up reply actions 0 recs
Ask Smoltz and Penny about the ALE v NL
by sternfan1 on Oct 14, 2009 8:13 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Curt Schilling and Randy Johnson seemed ok with it.
Nobody is comparing Calero to any of those guys and starting is a different animal. But just saying you’re not going to sign any NL relievers because we are the ALE is limiting your already limited options. Calero could bomb in the ALE or he could flourish, however, you have to give him the shot to do that first. Any guy we sign is going to have flaws, so we need to find one(s) that have strengths to overcome those flaws.
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by Tommy Rancel on Oct 14, 2009 8:40 AM EDT via mobile up reply actions 0 recs
Smoltz was done in by small sample size.
40 innings is nothing for a starter.
by R.J. Anderson on Oct 14, 2009 11:52 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
100% chance you didn't read more than the first paragraph of this post.
What you think all the guns is for? All purpose war, got the Rottweilers by the door. And I feed 'em gunpowder, so they can devour the criminals, tryin' to drop my decimals.
by PriceMultiCyYoungs on Oct 14, 2009 8:12 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I did, but i'm still uneasy about the transition from NL to AL, especially with marginable and/or players in their advanced years
by sternfan1 on Oct 14, 2009 8:15 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Trust me I rather be going after the Bobby Jenks types
But being realistic, we are going to have to continue the bargain shopping.
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by Tommy Rancel on Oct 14, 2009 8:41 AM EDT via mobile up reply actions 0 recs
Right.
And yes, going from the NL to the AL is going to inflate the run averages a bit. No question. But you have to trust your ability to analyze the ones who can make it work.
by R.J. Anderson on Oct 14, 2009 11:53 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Lg Avg ERA was about a quarter of a run difference
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by FreeZorilla on Oct 14, 2009 1:42 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
It's funny because everyone you mentioned -- Calero included -- HAS pitched in the A.L.
Springer was acquired from the Athletics, Percival made his name in Anaheim, and Nelson pitched for KC and Boston.
by R.J. Anderson on Oct 14, 2009 11:52 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
So you all only want players who have pitched in the ALE? That makes sense...
by Erik Hahmann on Oct 14, 2009 8:20 AM EDT via mobile reply actions 0 recs
Never said that
I just said get someone with AL experience.
I did read past the first paragraph…. He had one good bounce back year in 2009 against inferior NLE hitters. Put him in the ALE and he will get shelled. I understand our salary limitations. But dont go after reclamation projects go after younger guys that have a higher ceiling than older guys at the back end of their career.
by PewterPirate55 on Oct 14, 2009 8:56 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Does the AL West not count for AL experience now?
by Graham on Oct 14, 2009 11:09 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
truthfully?
the offenses are meh
But yes, I see your point.
by Navi's_Navy on Oct 14, 2009 7:00 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Balfour and Howell are good examples of ALE retreads...oh wait
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by FreeZorilla on Oct 14, 2009 9:41 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I would personally like to add Latroy Hawkins
He has AL experience and had one of the highest average fastball velocitys in the league this year. He was also one of the league leaders in XFIP.
by PewterPirate55 on Oct 14, 2009 9:00 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
His low ERA and "closer experience" will probably
Land him more money than we can afford to give. He’s alright, but he’s not 2 ERA real as his ~4 FIP and ~5 tRA suggest. I think someone overpays for him based on ERA.
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by Tommy Rancel on Oct 14, 2009 9:05 AM EDT via mobile up reply actions 0 recs
I actually wrote about Hawkins today.
He’s not someone I think would work well in the AL. tRA over 5 two of the last three years, FIP in the 3.8-4 range though. I guess that makes him a 4-4.5 type reliever in the NL, and raises to what, ~4.5-5 in the ALE? Maybe lower.
by R.J. Anderson on Oct 14, 2009 11:56 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
if you want a guy with AL experience
Rafael Betancourt would be the best choice. His 5.4 team option will most likely be declined, but he has expressed a desire to remain in Colorado so they make work out a different deal to resign. If he doesn’t resign, he should go to the top of the Rays wish list. He will cost more than Calero obviously, but less than a closer.
Signing Calero only works if the Rays get a more dependable reliever with him, reducing the risk.
by raysfaninminnesota on Oct 14, 2009 9:47 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Betancourt would be nice, but they also want to keep him.
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by Tommy Rancel on Oct 14, 2009 9:57 AM EDT via mobile up reply actions 0 recs
i agree, that's what i said
but even if he isn’t available, the Rays need to get a guy like that in addition to taking a flier on a Calero/Benoit.
by raysfaninminnesota on Oct 14, 2009 10:00 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Bring in a mass amount of relievers and have a battle to the death.
It will be interesting to see what relievers have their options dropped or are non-tendered. The options on the current group of players that are set to become FAs right after the world series aren’t great especially on a budget.
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by Tommy Rancel on Oct 14, 2009 10:06 AM EDT via mobile up reply actions 0 recs
that's fine--i'm hoping McGee surprises this year
by sternfan1 on Oct 14, 2009 10:14 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Definitely think he could be the guy we are really looking for
But might be 2011 before he’s really knocking on the door. I’d love to see him start the season at whatever level in a relief role. He’s already behind Hellickson and maybe Moore and Barnese also in terms of a starter. Might as well start the transition to relief early.
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by Tommy Rancel on Oct 14, 2009 10:24 AM EDT via mobile up reply actions 0 recs
we obviously have a surplus of SP, especially in the minors
so for McGee a fast track to MLB could be through the pen
by sternfan1 on Oct 14, 2009 11:04 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Betancourt would be great.
Same with Saito.
by R.J. Anderson on Oct 14, 2009 12:02 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I'm not sure he's really worth that.
by R.J. Anderson on Oct 14, 2009 12:09 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I still re-call the HR Longo hit against him
in ’08
He hit two monster shots foul, Wedge/Willis comes out to talk to him, and then hit the next pitch fair and further
He are dumb, and i HATE watching him pitch—like watching a turtle cross the road
by sternfan1 on Oct 14, 2009 12:12 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I agree with the last part
The guy makes Jeff Niemann look like Sonny.
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by FreeZorilla on Oct 14, 2009 1:43 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
He has a live arm--trouble with BB
by sternfan1 on Oct 14, 2009 12:13 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
You want a guy with BB trouble?
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by FreeZorilla on Oct 14, 2009 1:43 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
What about in-house options?
Is there a trait or attribute that you look for in a starter that would make him a good reliever? Other than power arms who struggle with control.
What about Talbot or Sonny? I know Talbot was injured and Sonny was not very good this year, but both guys have put up good numbers in the minors, and majors in Sonny’s case. I know they have more value as starters, but neither guy will crack our rotation barring injury. If we can’t find suitable trade partners, wouldn’t it make sense to give them a try in the pen? They’re both cheap, have a history of good K/BB and HR rates, and are already here. After seeing the success JP has had, what does everyone think about either of these guys pulling off a similar switch?
by ReyL on Oct 14, 2009 8:43 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

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