Rays Alumni: The Dirty Little Secret that is Jason Hammel
Entering Spring Training this past season, the Rays found themselves stuck between a rock and a hard place in the battle for the 5th spot in the rotation. The team had 2004 4th overall pick Jeff Niemann, and 2002 10th round pick Jason Hammel fighting for one rotation spot, with the loser competing with free agent Lance Cormier for the final spot in the bullpen. Both, Niemann and Hammel were out of options, so if the Rays were to keep Cormier it was doubtful the Rays could retain the loser of the rotational battle.
Niemann had long been full of potential, but injuries had derailed, or at least delayed, his emergence into the big leagues. With a reputation of needing a long time to warm up, the team was hesitant to move him to the pen. This was confirmed in a small sample size of poor bullpen performances in the Spring.
Having an undistinguished career with the Rays for the most part, Hammel's big moment came on September 10, 2008 in the 14th inning of a critical game at Fenway Park. Carlos Pena belted a 3 run homer in the top of the inning to give the Rays a 4-1 lead paving the way for a classic Troy Percival meltdown. Percival loaded the bases to being the bottom of the 14th.. Having exhausted the rest of his bullpen options and having no faith left in Percival, Joe Maddon turned to the low-leverage long man Jason Hammel to face Kevin Youkilis, Jason Bay, and Alex Cora with no outs in a raucous Fenway Park. After giving up a harmless sacrifice fly to Youk, Hammel came back to strike out Bay and induce a Cora flyout. For me, that performance was as epic as Dan Johnon's home run off Papelbon. Following the game Percival uttered, "When I'm the weakest link in the bullpen, its a pretty good bullpen." Sadly, that prophecy did not hold as true in 2009.
Hammel had bounced between the rotation, the bullpen, and Durham since 2006 without clearly defining his role. Enter the Colorado Rockies. Colorado was willing to part with young pitching prospect Aneury Rodriguez (2009 season profiled here) in exchange for the Hammer. Hammel was pegged in a similar role with Colorado as he was with the Rays, a bullpen long man with the occasional spot start. That would change when 5th starter, Franklin Morales, injured his shoulder during an April start. Hammel took the spot and the Rockies didn't dare take it away from him. Was this the same Jason Hammel that pitched for the Rays?
|
Year |
K/9 |
BB/9 |
HR/9 |
FIP |
|
2006 |
6.55 |
4.3 |
1.43 |
5.26 |
|
2007 |
6.78 |
4.24 |
1.27 |
5.05 |
|
2008 |
5.06 |
4.02 |
1.26 |
5.25 |
|
2009 |
6.78 |
2.14 |
0.87 |
3.71 |
Well that's a significant K:BB change. We will look more into that in a minute. What about the reduction in longballs? Detractors will point to pitching in the National League. Facing pitchers is fine and dandy, but Hammel went from a pretty neutral park to Coors Field and its 1.09 park factor. He saw his HR/FB% drop from an unlucky 13.3% in 2008 to 9.7% with the Rockies. Hammel did give up a high line drive % of 22.8% leading to a BABIP of .337. This type of statistical line conjures up fuzzy memories of Andy Sonnanstine circa 2008.
|
K/9 |
BB/9 |
HR/9 |
FIP |
BABIP |
|
|
Sonny08 |
5.77 |
1.72 |
0.98 |
3.91 |
0.312 |
|
Hammel09 |
6.78 |
2.14 |
0.87 |
3.71 |
0.336 |
If the strikeouts and walks changed so dramatically, what gives?
|
Year |
SwStrk% |
Ball% |
CB% |
wCB/c |
O-Swg% |
|
2006 |
6.5% |
38.5% |
20.40% |
-0.13 |
16.90% |
|
2007 |
9.0% |
38.6% |
8.70% |
-0.26 |
24.90% |
|
2008 |
4.9% |
39.7% |
10% |
0.53 |
22.30% |
|
2009 |
9.4% |
35.2% |
15.60% |
3.53 |
27.10% |
Swinging strikes nearly doubled while achieving a 4.5% decrease in balls thrown. Most interestingly is the development of Hammer's curveball. His run value above average per 100 curveballs thrown (wCB/c) of 3.53 was the tops in baseball for qualified pitchers with at least 10% usage. This more than likely directly caused the increase in swings outside the zone.
Last week we looked at the roller coaster ride of Edwin Jackson. There is an argument to be made that "The Afterthought" Jason Hammel proved to be the better starter in 2009 despite being traded for much lower compensation.
|
Year |
K/9 |
BB/9 |
HR/9 |
FIP |
tRA |
SwStrk% |
GB% |
RAR |
RAR/St |
|
Hammel |
6.78 |
2.14 |
0.87 |
3.71 |
5.2 |
9.4% |
46.2% |
34.5 |
1.15 |
|
Jackson |
6.77 |
2.94 |
1.14 |
4.28 |
4.75 |
9.8% |
39.1% |
35.8 |
1.08 |
While tRA favored Jackson due to Hammel's high line drive % allowed, K:BB, FIP, ground ball %, and runs above replacement per start support the Hammer. Sentiment early in the year told a tale of the front office being fleeced on the Jackson deal while mining something out of nothing from the out-of-options Hammel. Very quietly 2nd half Edwin returned to form, while the Jason Hammel trade became the Rays' dirty little secret. Then again.......2010 Jason Hammel may just become 2009 Andy Sonnanstine
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42 comments
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Comments
I'm glad Hammel got his chance in Colorado
And even with his good 2009, I still wouldn’t take him over anyone in our current rotation or Jeremy Hellickson. Aneury is still ~2 years away and that’s fine for a 21 year old, who came on strong in the 2nd half.
As for Hammel’s HR rate. He’s lucky he split his home/road starts evenly. His HR/9 at coors was around 1.3 and down around .5 on the road. The low BB total should encourage Rockies fans.
We’ll always have Fenway Park, Hammer.
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by Tommy Rancel on Oct 22, 2009 6:44 AM EDT via mobile reply actions 0 recs
I don't think an even split is luck
Its what you would expect. Skewed towards road starts would be lucky. Its a good reinforcement for the importance of park factors. At any rate, his xFIP was right in the ballpark of FIP at 3.82. Pitching at Coors is a bear.
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by FreeZorilla on Oct 22, 2009 7:43 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Even at Coors his FIP was ~4.2 ish which is above average
With all success, I think that he would the 6th or 7th best starter with the Rays. It’s good to have depth.
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by Tommy Rancel on Oct 22, 2009 8:40 AM EDT via mobile up reply actions 0 recs
I'm just glad he's finally finding success somewhere
After bouncing up and down in Tampa and never quite holding on, it was nice to see him do well this year.
On another note, I wonder how his curveball looked this year when compared to last year. Doesn’t Coors make curveballs lose some of their movement? It strikes me as interesting that his became even more effective with the move to the higher altitude.
"I never threw an illegal pitch. The trouble is, once in a while I toss one that ain't never been seen by this generation." - Satchel Paige
by Steve Slowinski on Oct 22, 2009 8:57 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Wow, there was a huge change in his curve's movement
2008
H-break: 11.64
V-break: -8.99
MPH ~75
2009
H-break: 7.36
V-break: -6.95
MPH ~77
This is just comparing two starts, one from in Tampa and one in Colorado, but it seems like a rather huge difference. Maybe with the loss of movement, he gained more control over it? I’d have to investigate a bit more to see if that’s true. With the loss in movement, though, his curve follows a very similar flight path to his slider, until it falls off the table. That deception might have also helped him.
"I never threw an illegal pitch. The trouble is, once in a while I toss one that ain't never been seen by this generation." - Satchel Paige
by Steve Slowinski on Oct 22, 2009 9:54 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Good stuff
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by FreeZorilla on Oct 22, 2009 9:58 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Isn't the lack of break on a breaking ball a common complaint of pitchers pitching at Coors field?
Gary Williams for President!
Put Rose in the Hall of Fame
by terp12 on Oct 22, 2009 12:31 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Yup
here’s the physics explanation, http://www.bu.edu/phpbin/news-cms/news/?dept=1127&id=47276&template=228
the ghost of stokes, camp, lugo strikes TB-sept 2009
by CubFanRaysaddict on Oct 22, 2009 5:09 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I checked the effect of facing pitchers
I’m not sure of the NL FIP constant, I typically use 3.15 for AL.
Pitcher PA accounted for 15 innings worth of outs with 8 K, 2 BB, ando 0 HR
Without those #’s, Hammels FIP with a constant of 3.15 was still 3.81.
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by FreeZorilla on Oct 22, 2009 9:22 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
That discrepancy between tRA and FIP seems pretty large, I'm going to take a look to see where that ranks among regulars
Get well soon DM
by Sandy Kazmir on Oct 22, 2009 9:27 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Hmmm
I pulled the figure off FG. Those #’s are no lnoger appearing at all on FG. On statcorner Hammels tRA sits at 4.25
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by FreeZorilla on Oct 22, 2009 9:38 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
And Edwin 4.65, advantage Hammel again
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by FreeZorilla on Oct 22, 2009 9:39 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
You hate Edwin!!!
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by Tommy Rancel on Oct 22, 2009 9:40 AM EDT via mobile up reply actions 0 recs
Statcorner has Hammer at 4.32
Perhaps that’s why they pulled the numbers from FG since that is a huuuuge difference.
Get well soon DM
by Sandy Kazmir on Oct 22, 2009 9:44 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I just realized that I'm looking at the regressed tRA*
I’m almost done inputting all of them it will be interesting to see who had the bigger differences. This is similar to what I have been doing evaluating pitchers on wOBA and FIP. I’ve noticed that it is very rare that a pitcher is has very low numbers for both. Some guys have better FIP others better wOBA, but it is the true ace that dominates both.
Get well soon DM
by Sandy Kazmir on Oct 22, 2009 9:46 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Am I getting hate mail now?
I just find it amazing how the Jackson trade still gets so much noise and heat while somehow Hammel hardly gets noticed.
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by FreeZorilla on Oct 22, 2009 10:00 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Yeah, but what about Sonny?
Get well soon DM
by Sandy Kazmir on Oct 22, 2009 10:04 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Dang, I didn't know that he was that bad this year
Good thing we traded him
Get well soon DM
by Sandy Kazmir on Oct 22, 2009 10:14 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Still lower than Edwin's last year.
But Edwin’s was lower through September so full season stats don’t matter.
by R.J. Anderson on Oct 22, 2009 10:17 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
How adorable
The argument used last year was Edwin was better than Sonny through Sept. Yet if I use 2009 half-season stats I get flamed.
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by FreeZorilla on Oct 22, 2009 10:19 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Only one person made that "argument".
It’s hilarious.
“Well Longoria had a higher OPS than Mauer through April, so he’s the MVP.”
by R.J. Anderson on Oct 22, 2009 10:21 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I was being facetious
Good point about only being good up until September. That is important. Hammy ended up in the middle of the pack on his tRA – FIP. Nothing real obvious jumped out to me.
Get well soon DM
by Sandy Kazmir on Oct 22, 2009 10:27 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
You Trolling
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by FreeZorilla on Oct 22, 2009 10:17 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
No?
I’m just saying that’s why nobody references him. If he had a 2.5 ERA (or whatever Edwin’s was) through the all-star break, and a 0.99 ERA through his first 10 starts, people would’ve talked a ton about him.
Plus, Joyce didn’t play in favor of Gross/Kapler, who some dislike. It’s a feeling of “Well, if he can’t beat these guys out, then maybe he’s not so good.”
by R.J. Anderson on Oct 22, 2009 10:23 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Ah The Voice of the People
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by FreeZorilla on Oct 22, 2009 10:25 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Aneury failed to play over Sonny, what does that say about him?
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by FreeZorilla on Oct 22, 2009 10:26 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Worthless
If you can’t start over that bum, well, I don’t know what to tell ya.
Get well soon DM
by Sandy Kazmir on Oct 22, 2009 10:27 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I'll bite
I don’t suppose Detroit’s UZR of 45.1 and Colorado’s -13.1 have anything to do with ERA?
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by FreeZorilla on Oct 22, 2009 10:21 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Those numbers are meaningless
How can you get 3 seasons worth of numbers out of one season’s worth of fielders. It’s mind-boggling.
Get well soon DM
by Sandy Kazmir on Oct 22, 2009 10:28 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
In terms of what happened (relating to ERA) these #'s are absolutely valid
In terms of predicting the future, not quite as much
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by FreeZorilla on Oct 22, 2009 10:31 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I don't think one season is enough without knowing the backing behind it
If it is based on a GB through zone 4 (for example), how many of those happened overall? How many for that individual player? Were there enough to say that what happened in that handful of times is indicative of what would happen over the course of a season?
Get well soon DM
by Sandy Kazmir on Oct 22, 2009 10:44 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Look at this
http://www.draysbay.com/2009/6/5/900436/team-babip-vs-uzr
I don’t have the raw graph or data available anymore. The ey can tell you there is a correlation between UZR and BABIP which would influence ERA
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by FreeZorilla on Oct 22, 2009 10:49 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
What?
Are you suggesting UZR from one season has no bearing on the team’s ERA during that year?
It’s not like UZR is making up numbers, guys have fluke defensive seasons like they have fluke offensive seasons, the problem is not every defender gets 200 chances, just like not every batter gets 500 PA.
by R.J. Anderson on Oct 22, 2009 10:57 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I agree it has an impact, but to assign the overall number to a player (+4.5, -2.8, etc...)
I have no idea if that is significant. One full year could probably be enough for SS, CF, 2B, but how many guys play 162 games? I agree that there is a trend there and it probably does a good job of showing the really bad and the really good, but the middle ground is probably very muddied. Clearly, this is a variable influencing ERA, but I’m not sure how big the error bars would be. Just my take.
Get well soon DM
by Sandy Kazmir on Oct 22, 2009 12:10 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
That is the team defense, 162 games per 7 fielding positions
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by FreeZorilla on Oct 22, 2009 12:16 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
My original statement was tongue in cheek, but I maintain that it is a good way
to show direction (+ v. -), but I think I don’t put as much stock in the impact (7 v. 3), at the individual level. This is more of a general statement, not as much towards what you have posted above. I do think that in the example +45 v. -13, even with error bars on the order of + 15, you can have confidence in that particular question. If you were to ask me how reliable the metric is when evaluating a team with a + 20 v. a team with a +15 then I think it would be a little more dubious.
Get well soon DM
by Sandy Kazmir on Oct 22, 2009 12:23 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
We had Davis, Price, Niemann, and Hammel in 2008 not in the rotation
That is silly depth
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by FreeZorilla on Oct 22, 2009 10:34 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
From Purple Row
Jason Hammel: The Man, the Myth, the Back-end Starter
The Rockies board debates whether he is worthy of a rotation spot in 2010. Conclusion, he was the 3rd best #5 starter in baseball behind Tommy Hanson and Niemann. In the top half of #4s.
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by FreeZorilla on Oct 22, 2009 10:39 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

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