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Tampa Bay Rays Re-Sign Gabe Kapler For One-Year, $1.05M

Per the Rays press release:

Back in September I wrote this:

It's fair to say Kapler is the superior hitter and Perez the superior fielder. So where do you draw the line on either? As mentioned, Perez is younger - cheaper too - and not yet out of options. This means, he can be sent up and down next season as the Rays please without being offered to waivers.  

Okay, so let's look at the numbers. In statistical terms, if we assume Kapler will OPS .950 (Ed note: Kapler's last three years actually have him with a .965 OPS against lefties, but I wanted to prove my point by contracting the difference into something more reasonable and round) and Perez .800 in 200 plate appearances, then Perez must be 12 runs better defensively to register as the better player. Let's say Perez is +8 on defense and the difference is four runs. That's a pretty marginal difference, all told, but since wins are worth about 4.84 million, and this is 0.4 of a win, we can see that Kapler is worth 1.94 million more than Perez - at least based on our projections which I'm not claiming are anywhere near accurate.  That means our logical test on whether Kapler should be re-signed or not is pretty simple. It comes down to this equation:

X - 400,000 = 1.94 million

Where X is Kapler's proposed salary, 400,000 is Perez' salary, and 1.94 million is the predetermined value of the performance gap. The Rays could go cost efficient and just say to heck with Kapler, or they could keep him around and reap the quantitative and qualitative benefits.

The deal is for $1.05M which falls within that range. A win usually runs about four times that, and here the Rays just bought 1-1.5 wins for a million. Good move.

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More tiger print thong!

Lead singer, songwriter, and caterer for the band Suicide Phoenix. We play sitar-based anthems on real estate law. Available for weddings, birthdays (13+, please), and LAN parties.

by PlayOnWords on Oct 27, 2009 2:16 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

Here's a question

Why?

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by Imperialism32 on Oct 27, 2009 2:19 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

Joyce actually hit both lefties and righties pretty well

And Kapler was a .931 OPS vs. lefties(not .950) and you know Maddon is going to end up giving him at-bats against some righties, who he absolutely cannot hit.

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by Imperialism32 on Oct 27, 2009 2:21 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Fair enough

but I also don’t think it’s crazy to expect a little decline due to age(he’s in phenomenal shape obviously but let’s face it, he’s old).

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by Imperialism32 on Oct 27, 2009 2:25 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

I had him declining, hence the .950 OPS instead of .965.

Decline further if you wish, he’s still not a bad deal at all for 1 million.

by R.J. Anderson on Oct 27, 2009 2:26 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

In case of injury or trade or whatever

Having Kapler around at 1 million isn’t a bad idea.

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by Tommy Rancel on Oct 27, 2009 2:28 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions   0 recs

Hard to reach a definitive conclusion until we see what else is to come

If Kap is part of a regular platoon, I much prefer him to Nando. I have to suspect this is the case. If it were for spot starter, pinch runner I would much prefer Nando.

I think the new question is what does the return of Kapler mean for some other pieces:

a) Crawford or Beej- A possible trade? Full-time Joyce and a Kapler platoon is not out of the question

b) Sean Rod- Less likely to platoon 2nd with Zobrist as part of the twintoon since Zo would be in RF when SRod played 2nd. Maybe Zo is a full time outfielder?

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by FreeZorilla on Oct 27, 2009 2:24 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

I think its far too early to speculate.

Lead singer, songwriter, and caterer for the band Suicide Phoenix. We play sitar-based anthems on real estate law. Available for weddings, birthdays (13+, please), and LAN parties.

by PlayOnWords on Oct 27, 2009 2:25 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Trade bartlett and platoon Sean John and Brignac at SS.

We can go platoon across the board

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by Tommy Rancel on Oct 27, 2009 2:26 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions   0 recs

Not sure Rodriguez can play a passable MLB SS

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by Imperialism32 on Oct 27, 2009 2:28 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Which of these seems more likely to re-occur

I dig the thought, but I don’t think that Bartlett will SLG .490 ever again.

You can either die the hero or live long enough to become the villain

by Andy Hellicksonstine on Oct 27, 2009 4:06 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

This could be an option but the defensive difference is great between Reid and (SRod or Zo).

Of course Reid would see 75% of opposing pitchers

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by FreeZorilla on Oct 27, 2009 2:31 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

More like Reid/Zo and Zo/StB, I'd think.

Lead singer, songwriter, and caterer for the band Suicide Phoenix. We play sitar-based anthems on real estate law. Available for weddings, birthdays (13+, please), and LAN parties.

by PlayOnWords on Oct 27, 2009 2:32 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

We have the bats to DH

Wonder if there was a chance we could dump Burrell onto someone. Use the savings for the pen or CC.

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by FreeZorilla on Oct 27, 2009 2:37 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Milton!

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by Tommy Rancel on Oct 27, 2009 2:39 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions   0 recs

Seems like that was put out by the Cubs in hopes of drumming up other interest

I couldn’t see them eating that much of both player’s salaries. I’d have to think AF wouldn’t sit for long if they did offer that.

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by FreeZorilla on Oct 27, 2009 2:41 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

I think their ownership situation was just approved today

Plus they can’t make any moves until after the season.

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by Tommy Rancel on Oct 27, 2009 2:44 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions   0 recs

Do you think there is a chance?

Seems like an expensive first move for a new owner

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by FreeZorilla on Oct 27, 2009 2:44 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

The fans hate Milton, Piniella hates him

It’s probably worth the PR boost as a first move.

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by Tommy Rancel on Oct 27, 2009 2:47 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions   0 recs

Lets hope!

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by FreeZorilla on Oct 27, 2009 2:48 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

...GULP...

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by FreeZorilla on Oct 27, 2009 2:29 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

R.J.

This may send FZ into a downward spiral if it happens. It is not something to joke about.

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by Buc Wild on Oct 27, 2009 2:30 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

TWHS?

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by Buc Wild on Oct 27, 2009 2:31 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Option b is why this makes no sense to me

I would’ve just non-tendered Kapler and run Rodriguez, Zobrist, and Joyce in some sort of 3-way 2-position platoon, with Zobrist playing nearly every day.

Vroom vroom party starter
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by Imperialism32 on Oct 27, 2009 2:27 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Might get his attention if you docked him a box of vino each time instead.

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by Buc Wild on Oct 27, 2009 2:28 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

While I sort of agree

Kapler was silly bad last year. The prior year he was .272/.318/.429 vs righties in a much larger sample size (misused worse)

Career .260/.322/.392
2009: .150/.190/.167

Maddon used him better than any prior manager. He just really crapped the bed when he did face RHP

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by FreeZorilla on Oct 27, 2009 2:28 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Did his swing change at all vs RHP?

His swing plane really looks awkward when he’s facing righties – almost as if he’s trying to hit a flop shot on the golf course.

by Jason Collette on Oct 27, 2009 2:47 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

THATS WHY HENDERSON WAS FIRED

Damn him for teaching the Flop Shot to a vet

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by FreeZorilla on Oct 27, 2009 2:48 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Options left for Joyce? 2, right? Does he start on MLB roster?

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by Buc Wild on Oct 27, 2009 2:30 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Kapler should only play against lefties

Joyce has nothing to prove in Durham and he can easily take all the Gabe Gross at bats.

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by Tommy Rancel on Oct 27, 2009 2:37 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions   0 recs

Pardon my ignorance, but what is Gross' status? FA?

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by Buc Wild on Oct 27, 2009 2:38 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Off to wiki I go.

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by Buc Wild on Oct 27, 2009 2:39 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Gross is due for a raise in the 1.3-1.5 million dollar area

Given that fact and the Rays traded for Joyce cause he can mash, it doesn’t make sense to pay Gross when Joyce is making the minimum

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by Tommy Rancel on Oct 27, 2009 2:42 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions   0 recs

Do we offer arb? and if we don't, does he walk or how does that work

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by Buc Wild on Oct 27, 2009 2:44 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

I'd rather not see that again

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by FreeZorilla on Oct 27, 2009 2:45 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Gotcha, some of these rules are just odd to me

Super Two, for example. Better go play more of The Show to get a firm grasp

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by Buc Wild on Oct 27, 2009 2:46 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

One would think

I’m inclined to think this was just the first tumbler getting set into motion. If this precedes a bigger deal then it should get pretty exciting. The pay is right, but I’m not sure if Kap’s utility outweighs what we already have in the pipeline. I like Nando and was looking forward to seeing more of him.

You can either die the hero or live long enough to become the villain

by Andy Hellicksonstine on Oct 27, 2009 3:02 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

10 or lower implies less than 10?

Instead of a prospect could we just have Bailey, Wuertz & Suzuki? I’d do that in a heartbeat.

You can either die the hero or live long enough to become the villain

by Andy Hellicksonstine on Oct 27, 2009 3:12 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Top 10 prospect we can maybe talk

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by FreeZorilla on Oct 27, 2009 3:20 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

I'm not so sure I'd do that

Even if Zobie baselines at a .380/.450 playing wonderful defense all over I think he is better than that package.

You can either die the hero or live long enough to become the villain

by Andy Hellicksonstine on Oct 27, 2009 3:20 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Sounds like a good example of a poll

I’ll conservatively peg him as anywhere between 0 and 10 WAR next year.

You can either die the hero or live long enough to become the villain

by Andy Hellicksonstine on Oct 27, 2009 3:22 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Well Suzuki we know is a 2 Win catcher

I have trouble pegging many relievers as 2 win relievers even though Wertz was this year. I hate trading for relievers.

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by FreeZorilla on Oct 27, 2009 3:24 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Trouble pegging b/c of inconsistency

I would peg Wuertz as .75 WAR

Thats 2.75 plus a low grade prospect. Zobrist is a cheap 4 Win player. I stay put there pretty easily

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by FreeZorilla on Oct 27, 2009 3:26 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

What about Anderson and Wuertz?

Would you think about Zobie straight up for them?

You can either die the hero or live long enough to become the villain

by Andy Hellicksonstine on Oct 27, 2009 3:28 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

See my comment below

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by FreeZorilla on Oct 27, 2009 3:32 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

NO, BUT NEVIN ASHLEY DOES

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by FreeZorilla on Oct 27, 2009 3:32 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Did Javier Valentin die?

I’m almost to the point where I’m ready to accept a plus-defensive catcher and punt the offense. That at least opens a window of credible candidates including ROB JOHNSON. It seems like the M’s don’t really like him, but with Kenji leaving they may seem him as the lesser of the evils. I just wish we could swing a Nando/Ruggs/Helliot (pick 2) for John Baker type trade. I love his game.

You can either die the hero or live long enough to become the villain

by Andy Hellicksonstine on Oct 27, 2009 3:41 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Going by what?

It’s hard for me to judge a catcher that I don’t see all the time. I know you have ins with the foremost Mariners opinion-makers, but he would be a step up over Navarro behind the dish, right?

You can either die the hero or live long enough to become the villain

by Andy Hellicksonstine on Oct 27, 2009 3:46 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

My 1990 Reggie Cobb action figure would be an upgrade over Navarro.

Lead singer, songwriter, and caterer for the band Suicide Phoenix. We play sitar-based anthems on real estate law. Available for weddings, birthdays (13+, please), and LAN parties.

by PlayOnWords on Oct 27, 2009 3:47 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Oh Hellicksonstine

Surely, you are aware that 4/5 of civlization qualifies as better than Navi

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by FreeZorilla on Oct 27, 2009 3:47 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

By Yadier, he means Nevin Ashley

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by FreeZorilla on Oct 27, 2009 3:49 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

FreeNevin

Lead singer, songwriter, and caterer for the band Suicide Phoenix. We play sitar-based anthems on real estate law. Available for weddings, birthdays (13+, please), and LAN parties.

by PlayOnWords on Oct 27, 2009 3:52 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Not many are

signed,
Vivaelpujols

You can either die the hero or live long enough to become the villain

by Andy Hellicksonstine on Oct 27, 2009 3:49 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

I liked the idea of trying to get that young buck that the Stros have

I’m hoping more for a stop-gap for about 38 games and then Luke Bailey to step in and hit about 49 homers over the rest of this year while throwing out 85% of would-be thieves.

You can either die the hero or live long enough to become the villain

by Andy Hellicksonstine on Oct 27, 2009 3:54 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

49 homers 6 walks 60 at bats.

The other five were line drives that killed five infielders. In mourning, Luke asked that those be counted as outs.

Lead singer, songwriter, and caterer for the band Suicide Phoenix. We play sitar-based anthems on real estate law. Available for weddings, birthdays (13+, please), and LAN parties.

by PlayOnWords on Oct 27, 2009 4:00 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

This seems about right

You can either die the hero or live long enough to become the villain

by Andy Hellicksonstine on Oct 27, 2009 4:01 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Now there is a guy I'd die for...

What you think all the guns is for? All purpose war, got the Rottweilers by the door. And I feed 'em gunpowder, so they can devour the criminals, tryin' to drop my decimals.

by PriceMultiCyYoungs on Oct 27, 2009 4:06 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

His defense is amazing

Signed,

Guy whose boss is his aunt so I can never say a bad thing about him

by Jason Collette on Oct 27, 2009 4:20 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Hmmm,

It depends what we could secure for some of our pitching. In a vaccuum its a pretty sweet deal. Zo’s versatility is worth something that WAR does not capture in terms of ease of roster construction. We are so loaded with pitching that Zo has greater value to the team. Parlay some of our pitching and we could maybe talk.

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by FreeZorilla on Oct 27, 2009 3:32 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

CHASE UTLEY.

What you think all the guns is for? All purpose war, got the Rottweilers by the door. And I feed 'em gunpowder, so they can devour the criminals, tryin' to drop my decimals.

by PriceMultiCyYoungs on Oct 27, 2009 4:03 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

He has nice hair

And he runs fast

You can either die the hero or live long enough to become the villain

by Andy Hellicksonstine on Oct 27, 2009 4:06 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Can we convince them that Chris Carter is not a top 10 guy?

Lead singer, songwriter, and caterer for the band Suicide Phoenix. We play sitar-based anthems on real estate law. Available for weddings, birthdays (13+, please), and LAN parties.

by PlayOnWords on Oct 27, 2009 3:35 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

He sucks and we want him!

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by FreeZorilla on Oct 27, 2009 3:36 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Look over here, Billy! *makes shadow puppet*

Lead singer, songwriter, and caterer for the band Suicide Phoenix. We play sitar-based anthems on real estate law. Available for weddings, birthdays (13+, please), and LAN parties.

by PlayOnWords on Oct 27, 2009 3:37 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Suzuki and Wuertz will be a trade package we try to pry from Beane

And I think some sort of package of Brignac and a lower pitching prospect would be enough to get the job done. That is, if we decide to keep Bartlett and trade Briggy.

by raysfaninminnesota on Oct 27, 2009 3:40 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

Did Kapler ask AF to take a pay cut to improve clubhouse chemistry?

Lead singer, songwriter, and caterer for the band Suicide Phoenix. We play sitar-based anthems on real estate law. Available for weddings, birthdays (13+, please), and LAN parties.

by PlayOnWords on Oct 27, 2009 3:43 PM EDT reply actions   1 recs

this may not be the place for it but

my off-season wish list:

1. Joakim Soria
2. Ryan Doumit
3. Bradley for Burrell
4. 1 bullpen arm through FA (Kiko Calero sounds good)

by raysfaninminnesota on Oct 27, 2009 3:43 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

JENNINGS/NAVARRO FOR SORIA

/MLBTR’d

Lead singer, songwriter, and caterer for the band Suicide Phoenix. We play sitar-based anthems on real estate law. Available for weddings, birthdays (13+, please), and LAN parties.

by PlayOnWords on Oct 27, 2009 3:44 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Eh, I think the Royals would want an arm back too.

Do you think the Rays would give up Davis or Hellickson if the Royals threw in Mitch Maier? (Could hit .300, good hustle)

by R.J. Anderson on Oct 27, 2009 3:45 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

WELL I THINK THE RAYS ARE GOOD WITH FIREBALLIN JEFF NIEMATRONN THERE AT THE BACK END OF THE ROTATION SO HELLICKSON IS PROBABLY EXPENDABLE

YOUNG PITCHERS ARE VERY VOLATILE. I WOULD THINK JENNINGS/HELLICKSON/NAVARRO FOR SORIA/DEJESUS IS REASONABLE AND FAIR. GO ROAYS!

Lead singer, songwriter, and caterer for the band Suicide Phoenix. We play sitar-based anthems on real estate law. Available for weddings, birthdays (13+, please), and LAN parties.

by PlayOnWords on Oct 27, 2009 3:46 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Why do that when we can just convert Sonny?

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by Buc Wild on Oct 27, 2009 3:49 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

That would be the best move the Rays FO could make, IMO.

Lead singer, songwriter, and caterer for the band Suicide Phoenix. We play sitar-based anthems on real estate law. Available for weddings, birthdays (13+, please), and LAN parties.

by PlayOnWords on Oct 27, 2009 3:52 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Moving Sonny to catcher.

Babe Ruth’s bat, Brad Radke’s arm, Greg Maddux’s brain, J.P. Howell’s television and eating habits all in one grizzled package.

by R.J. Anderson on Oct 27, 2009 3:53 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

And Aaron Neville's singing voice.

Lead singer, songwriter, and caterer for the band Suicide Phoenix. We play sitar-based anthems on real estate law. Available for weddings, birthdays (13+, please), and LAN parties.

by PlayOnWords on Oct 27, 2009 3:54 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Tell it like it is

You can either die the hero or live long enough to become the villain

by Andy Hellicksonstine on Oct 27, 2009 3:55 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Gay.

Lead singer, songwriter, and caterer for the band Suicide Phoenix. We play sitar-based anthems on real estate law. Available for weddings, birthdays (13+, please), and LAN parties.

by PlayOnWords on Oct 27, 2009 3:59 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

KLAW suggested this very thing.

What you think all the guns is for? All purpose war, got the Rottweilers by the door. And I feed 'em gunpowder, so they can devour the criminals, tryin' to drop my decimals.

by PriceMultiCyYoungs on Oct 27, 2009 4:09 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Briggy and Barnese?

I think that could get the job done…and we could always throw in Nando…except that would remind them of the last time we traded a speedy outfielder for a pitcher…and we know now how that went down.

by raysfaninminnesota on Oct 27, 2009 3:46 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Two walks and a dinger?

You can either die the hero or live long enough to become the villain

by Andy Hellicksonstine on Oct 27, 2009 3:50 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

I'll agree on this

You can either die the hero or live long enough to become the villain

by Andy Hellicksonstine on Oct 27, 2009 4:17 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Good.

Lead singer, songwriter, and caterer for the band Suicide Phoenix. We play sitar-based anthems on real estate law. Available for weddings, birthdays (13+, please), and LAN parties.

by PlayOnWords on Oct 27, 2009 4:21 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

My Problem
Okay, so let’s look at the numbers. In statistical terms, if we assume Kapler will OPS .950 (Ed note: Kapler’s last three years actually have him with a .965 OPS against lefties, but I wanted to prove my point by contracting the difference into something more reasonable and round) and Perez .800 in 200 plate appearances

Why would we assume Kapler would only play against lefties and ignore his atrocious numbers vs. righties, when he’s been getting roughly 25% of his PA’s against righties? Do we have any reason to believe this usage pattern will change?

by GomesSweetGomes on Oct 27, 2009 4:41 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

A bunch of those were garbage time PAs

If there was a RHP on the mound, he was rarely in there if it mattered.

by Transplanted on Oct 27, 2009 4:47 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

I'm more inclined to dismiss this unless I see it quantified.

A good manager can force a bad matchup, and there’s always the possibility he could be forced into a high-leverage situation against a righty.

by GomesSweetGomes on Oct 27, 2009 4:52 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Just went through his gamelogs against non-starting right-handed pitchers.

He saw 46 plate appearances.
25 came when the Rays were ahead, 3 tied, 18 behind.
24 came while the deficit was +/- 3 runs, the other 22 were +/-4 or more — which I think we can label as garbage time.
Of those 24, the average inning was right around the sixth, which probably means that in some cases either the other team had a LOOGY available/warming and Maddon didn’t want to throw Gross in that early or Kapler was only getting his 2nd PA of the night — Maddon doesn’t seem to like pulling him too early which explains why he saw 20 PA versus RHRP before the 7th inning.

by R.J. Anderson on Oct 27, 2009 5:21 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

The list of pitchers:

http://bbref.com/pi/shareit/fS3s8

Basically everyone with 1-2 PA against during the year, unless I knew they started the game — i.e. Wakefield.

by R.J. Anderson on Oct 27, 2009 5:22 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Cool

I’m interested to read it. While I think he has value above his total OPS, I just have serious doubts his true value approaches the .950 range.

by GomesSweetGomes on Oct 27, 2009 5:48 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Also historically he isn't as bad against righties as his 2009 numbers suggest

With plenty of options available against RHP, he shouldn’t see many meaningful at-bats against them

www.draysbay.com

by Tommy Rancel on Oct 27, 2009 4:55 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions   0 recs

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