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J.P. Howell: Four Pitch Puppet Master


In 2009, there were 1023 different pitches thrown a minimum of 200 times by individual pitchers. J.P. Howell managed to produce 4in the top 169 in terms of Non-Contact Strike% (NCS), which includes both whiffs and called strikes. In all of Major League Baseball there were just two other pitchers with three pitches in the top 200, a couple no-names in Tim Lincecum and Jorge De La Rosa (none in the top 15, J.P. has 2). There were an additional 25 pitchers with 2 pitches on the list. Our little lefty soft-tosser managed to stand alone with 4 offerings making the cut. Here is a look at Howell's pitch usage, whiff rates, called strike rates, NCS rates, and the rank among all 1023 pitches for each:

 

Type

Use%

Whiff

Rank

CallStk%

Rank

NCS

Rank

CH

20.4%

20.5%

44

19.0%

372

39.5%

14

CU

35.2%

19.6%

52

13.3%

834

32.9%

112

FA

23.1%

2.6%

995

37.5%

1

40.1%

9

FF

21.3%

1.9%

1015

29.4%

9

31.3%

163

 

It's safe to say J.P. Howell knows how to mix up his pitches to keep hitters guessing and off balance.  His changeup and curveball are in the top 52 in terms of whiff %. That's not all that surprising. What is surprising is the way is two and four-seam fastballs freeze hitters. Both are in the bottom 28 in terms of whiff rate, but are in the top 10 in terms of called strikes. That oh-so-pedestrian 86mph fastball has hitters consistently watching it cross the plate, unable to get the bat off their shoulders. What a phenomenal assortment of complementary pitches, and great game calling, to keep hitters so off balance. Howell's two-seamer is taken 78.5% of the time, a full 5% more often than the next most taken pitch in major league baseball; Joe Saunder's curveball. When you compare the Called Strike % between the pitches, Howell wins by an astounding margin of  37.5% to 25.8%. In fact, there are only 5 pitches in Major League Baseball with pitches north of 30% in called strikes.

Remember, these %'s are based on overall pitches. What if we isolate the NCS as a % of Swings or Takes? We'll look at swinging strikes as a % of overall swings (In Play+Foul+SwStrike), and called strikes as a % of pitches taken (Balls+Called Strikes):

 

Type

Whiffs/Swings

W/S Rank

Strikes/Take

S/T Rank

CH

40.4%

45

38.6%

153

CU

38.8%

63

26.9%

791

FA

12.3%

745

47.8%

12

FF

5.6%

1001

44.4%

33

 

It is beyond stunning that Howell's 86ish MPH fastballs, which generate only 12.2% and 5.64% whiffs on swings, are able to sneak across the plate for strikes so frequently  while hitters continue to whiff on the off speed stuff at fantastic rates.  Choose any superlative you like really to describe Howell's pitch selection and it probably fits. He always manages to stay one step ahead of the hitter (unless his name is Rod Barajas).

 H/T: RJ, vivaelpujols, therayspartyleader for their work in breaking down pitch type results.

2 recs  |  Comment 18 comments |

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http://spreadsheets.google.com/ccc?key=0AmhtqthzQ8zFdGZfdmdZMU5NbXlEUndjWkhRZlJFZEE&hl=en

I’d copy it to your own workbook as it seems to save whatever changes you make to it for everyone.

Follow Me on Twitter @FreeZorilla

by FreeZorilla on Oct 29, 2009 11:38 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Set the link to just share, not to allow outsiders to edit

You can either die the hero or live long enough to become the villain

by Andy Hellicksonstine on Oct 29, 2009 12:05 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

My bad

You can either die the hero or live long enough to become the villain

by Andy Hellicksonstine on Oct 29, 2009 12:57 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Trade ya Helliot Johnson for Dave Duncan, straight up

You can either die the hero or live long enough to become the villain

by Andy Hellicksonstine on Oct 29, 2009 8:36 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Sleep on it

You can either die the hero or live long enough to become the villain

by Andy Hellicksonstine on Oct 29, 2009 8:37 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

I like how you made whiffs per swing

it really shows how effective a pitch with good location can be like Howell’s off speed pitches.

I thing to note is that his FA and FF are essentially the same pitch in terms of movement as with most pitchers. There must be a way to combine those numbers in excel or mysql.

by therayspartyleader on Oct 29, 2009 12:19 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

Freezo, have you run this through the expected K%?

Pretty awesome stuff, just looking over it quickly.

You can either die the hero or live long enough to become the villain

by Andy Hellicksonstine on Oct 29, 2009 8:42 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

I haven't yet

Did you? Part of exK is In and Out of Zone swings so I’m not sure this gets us there.

Follow Me on Twitter @FreeZorilla

by FreeZorilla on Oct 29, 2009 9:08 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Oh, sorry FreeZorrila

I deleted the fields that you created.

by vivaelpujols on Oct 29, 2009 8:49 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

No worries, once I realized that it was saving it that way for everyone I moved my stuff to excel

I’m not done with this. Its great stuff. Thanks again.

Follow Me on Twitter @FreeZorilla

by FreeZorilla on Oct 29, 2009 9:07 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

You should email this to JP's mom

So she can print it out and hang it on the fridge.

Seriously though, that’s a heck of an accomplishment, congrats to the Iceman. Hope he can do it again for the next couple years!!!

by ChiBurbRaysFan on Oct 29, 2009 1:55 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

Yep JP was very good the first four months.

He should never have been made the closer. What was wrong with JP in the 6th, 7th or 8th inning as he was used before Percy went down? Oh my that curveball left up too high to that scrub Ryan Langerhans ( the game that killed the Rays season in my opinion). JP’s location was never the same after that game and eventually Joe had to shut him down in September. Let’s hope we see the old nasty JP in 2010 to hold games not close them.

by rickrays on Oct 29, 2009 5:58 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

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