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Top 30 Starts of 2009 - Part 4

 

Alright gentlemen and lady (?), I wanted to continue the look at some of the best starts the Rays had this year.  If you don't remember, here's the tally for each pitcher:

-          James Shields (19, 20, 23, & 24)

-          Matt Garza (28 & 29)

-          David Price (26 & 30)

-          Jeff Niemann (16, 21, 22, & 25)

-          Andy Sonnanstine (17)

-          Wade Davis (18 & 27)

-          Scott Kazmir (0)

So if you're good at math you've probably noticed that starts 11 - 15 is up next.  You would be right. 

Star-divide

15)  David Price on Oct 2nd vs. New York Yankees Box  Highlightss Pitch F/x

IP

H

BB

SO

HR

HBP

BF

2B

3B

1B

 FIP

 wOBA

R

ER

       7.0

2

2

5

0

1

26

0

0

2

       3.01

     0.153

1

1

This game will always be remembered for the Friday night in Tampa where an overwhelming crowd of 22,704 saw B. J. Upton hit for the cycle.  Beej keyed a 13-run onslaught of the Yankees, but David Price pitched well enough that it wasn't even needed.  Both hits were kept singles with only 2 walks for his 10th win.  Velociraptor Jesus got 8 (7.8%) swinging strikes, mostly on his fastball, but he did get 2 out of 10 with his hopefully-improving change up.  I like this plot below.  You can see how he threw in parallel lines.  I like that because it shows that he is throwing the same pitch on slightly tweaked planes leading to pitches looking the same but being a touch more inside or outside.  He threw 17 strikes on 28 sliders and you can see that he threw it in-and-out of the zone enough to keep lefties a

nd righties off-balance.  You can see the same with the change to the other side of the plate.  It is really interesting to see David when he has command to both sides of the plate.  I want to think of this game as David's Graduation Day.  He kept his walks down, he got swinging strikes with his change, he had command, didn't get batted around at any point, and got himself a win in his last start of the year.  Most importantly he got through his rookie year with no nicks or dings.  I'm looking forward to March. 

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via brooksbaseball.net

 

 

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14) Scott Kazmir vs. New York Yankees on July 28th  Box  Highlights  Pitch F/x

IP

H

BB

SO

HR

HBP

BF

2B

3B

1B

 FIP

 wOBA

R

ER

7

5

1

4

0

0

26

1

0

4

       2.44

     0.214

1

1

This is maybe the start that convinced me that we wouldn't be seeing good Kaz again anytime soon.   Don't get me wrong, it was a good start, but the bar had been lowered.  My best memories of Kaz involved double-digit K's and a ton of swinging strikes.  This was a good game for Kaz 2.0.  He kept his walks down and finished 7.  Two things that were unheard of during his prime, but it's the only 4 strikeouts that I don't like (with only 7 swinging strikes (6.2%)).  He touched 93 with his four-seamer and threw 34 sliders for 21  strikes, with four of those swinging.  This is when I knew the dream was dead.  Compare the chart below to Price's.  His slider is mo

re centered, and he's not hitting the back foot of a righty when he does throw it out of the zone.  His changeup is all over the place, as well, but this was also a smarter Kaz, because he got through 7 and because he only walked one.  He gave his team a chance to win the game giving up only the one run.  Yet again, I don't know whether to curse and Scott or praise him.  Let's see how he does over on the left coast.

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via brooksbaseball.net

 

 

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13) David Price on May 30th vs. Minnesota Twins  Box  Highlightsts  Pitch F/x

IP

H

BB

SO

HR

HBP

BF

2B

3B

1B

 FIP

 wOBA

R

ER

       5.7

5

2

11

0

0

25

2

0

3

       0.33

     0.265

1

1

If the previously mentioned David Price start was his graduation, then his second start of the year was his Initiation as a Starter.  David followed up a wild first start with the best start, by FIP, for the Rays in 2009.  The two doubles raised his wOBA to not quite out-of-this-world levels, but still very good.  He threw straight gas all night, averaging 94.3, while touching 97 on 76 fastballs with 56 strikes and 12 of the swinging variety (15.8%! ON FASTBALLS).  The speed chart shows that he started to pace himself in the middle of the game while keeping something in reserve for the later innings. 

Again, I like how he is throwing the slider low and inside to righties.  I am completely fine with him missing inside so that when it is on the corner they stand, look, turn, and walk back to the dugout.

Speed_php_medium

via brooksbaseball.net

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via brooksbaseball.net

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Again, I like how he is throwing the slider low and inside to righties.  I am completely fine with him missing inside so that when it is on the corner they stand, look, turn, and walk back to the dugout.  Notice compared to the season-ending start he threw virtually no changeups, let alone having anything inside to a lefty or low and away to a righty.  Plus Delmon Young struck out 3 times, enjoy the video above.

12)  James Shields on May 19th vs. Oakland Athletics  Boxox  Highlights  Pitch F/x

IP

H

BB

SO

HR

HBP

BF

2B

3B

1B

 FIP

 wOBA

R

ER

       8.3

4

2

5

0

0

30

0

0

4

       2.67

     0.168

0

0

James Shields makes the list for the team-leading 5th time so far.  James threw 6  different pitches on the night, mostly for strikes across the board, but as usual, he was led by the outstanding changeup thrown 24 times with 7 swinging strikes (29.2%).  The video does the change more justice than my wor

ds can.  No extra-base hits is nice, as well as the 5 K's.  Unfortunately, this was one of those games where James went almost a CG and the Rays could not score FOR 10 INNINGS.  A complete waste of a pretty good start, losing 4-1 after 11. 

Virtualtop_php_medium

via brooksbaseball.net

 

I love the double-helix here.  Keep in mind on these that that is average movement, not where he throws it on the plate.  That change averages 9 inches of fade away from righties.  Niice.

11)  David Price on August 29th at Detroit Tigers   Boxox  Highlights  Pitch F/x

IP

H

BB

SO

HR

HBP

BF

2B

3B

1B

 FIP

 wOBA

R

ER

       7.3

5

1

4

0

0

28

0

0

5

       2.47

     0.186

1

1

Another great DP start.  No extra-base hits with only one walk is pretty impressive.  David picked up his 7th win even though he only managed a paltry 6 whiffs in getting his 4 K's.  I found the graph below to be interesting, because of how slopped everything was movement wise.  <!--[if gte vml 1]> <![endif]-->

<!--[if gte vml 1]> <![endif]-->

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via brooksbaseball.net

Location_php_medium

via brooksbaseball.net

David doesn't look particularly sharp in this start.  He peppered the strike-zone with his fastball, but couldn't really locate his 2-seamer, Slider, or Change, really.  For one start it looks like Price just said, screw it, we're gonna get by with the heater today.  How gritty?  That's all I got for this installment.  Next Friday will be 6-10.  We're really getting into some awesome starts now. 

Thanks to Baseball-reference.com, MLB.com, and Brooksbaseball.net.

This post was written by a member of the DRaysBay community and does not necessarily express the views or opinions of DRaysBay staff.

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Continuing the good fight for that Kazmir guy/girl, how noble

Here have your first rec, for a worthwhile series that generates few comments

Follow Me on Twitter @FreeZorilla

by FreeZorilla on Oct 30, 2009 9:04 AM EDT reply actions  

Thanks FreeZo, and thank you to whoever Front Paged this

I feel like the well-to-do kid that flunked out. I forgot what a pain FanPosts are compared to the Front Page stuff.

You can either die the hero or live long enough to become the villain

by Andy Hellicksonstine on Oct 30, 2009 9:16 AM EDT up reply actions  

Price and Shields all over this

Im guessing Garza has a few in the top 10 range.

www.bucem.com - SBNation's source for all things Buccaneer

by Buc Wild on Oct 30, 2009 10:26 AM EDT reply actions  

You know me Allie, I can't give away the ending

I can tell you that we haven’t seen the last or Senor Garza. I think the Shields start above is something a lot of people forgot about this year. He had that stretch where he would allow one run max and still not get a win. Our offense was criminally bad for him. Using my FIP workbook, that attempts to smooth offense, Shields should have won 19.38 games while the wOBA book had him at 17.01. Obviously FIP likes him a little better since he is prone to get hit around. For Garza FIP had him at 17.57 wins and wOBA had him at 18.19 wins. Clearly, both these guys had great seasons.
Pitcher PROBw FIP Starts Est. Wins
Shields 58.7% 4.13 33 19.38
Garza 54.9% 4.51 32 17.57
Niemann 53.5% 4.33 30 16.04
Price 49.3% 5.56 23 11.34
Kazmir 47.8% 5.11 20 9.55
Sonnanstine 41.8% 6.18 18 7.53
Davis 70.1% 3.32 6 4.20
Team 52.9% 4.77 162 85.63

Pitcher PROBw wOBA Starts Est. Wins
Garza 56.8% 0.310 32 18.19
Shields 51.5% 0.328 33 17.01
Niemann 51.3% 0.328 30 15.40
Price 56.1% 0.331 23 12.90
Kazmir 48.8% 0.348 20 9.77
Sonnanstine 39.8% 0.392 18 7.17
Davis 60.9% 0.301 6 3.65
Team 51.9% 0.334 162 84.07

I find it really interesting to look at Niemann vs. Price on Game-to-Game average wOBA, in that, Niemann’s is lower, but Price has the much higher probability of getting a win. This goes back to what Matthan and I were trying to originally figure out. Is it better to have a consistently good pitcher, or a guy that can be among the best, but occasionally gets rocked?

You can either die the hero or live long enough to become the villain

by Andy Hellicksonstine on Oct 30, 2009 11:53 AM EDT up reply actions  

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