CHONE is the Winner

by R.J. Anderson on Oct 4, 2009 4:22 PM EDT Comment 28 comments

Remember this post? If not:

PECOTA 92 wins, third.

CHONE 88 wins, third.

THT 92 wins, third.

Marcel 89 wins, third.

ZiPS 90 wins, third.

CAIRO 91 wins, third.

I preached that the projected differences could easily swing during 162 games, and well, they did: the wrong way. Instead of 95 wins we'll wind up with what appears to be an 84-78 record. Disappointing but not depressing.

How can the Rays improve? What is their true talent level? Where should we set the number of expected wins? Answers to these questions and more in the coming weeks. For now, relax. It's been a long and at times trying season. The best news is New York probably won't win 103 next year.

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The Brewers are without a pitching coach now

I hope the Rays act fast if they want R.P.

What you think all the guns is for? All purpose war, got the Rottweilers by the door. And I feed 'em gunpowder, so they can devour the criminals, tryin' to drop my decimals.

by PriceMultiCyYoungs on Oct 4, 2009 4:52 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Are you thinking NY could win more? :)

By the way, a ways back you had a Rule 5 post -

I realized Alex Torres is eligible.He’s gotta be a shoo-in for protecting.

Sorry for all the season wasn’t up to expectations – I was really pulling for your guys to finish 2nd in the ALE. But still a good season, don’t make light of it.

Small downside is the Rays finish 15th in baseball, so no exemption from losing 1st round pick if signing a Type A FA. Not too sure that would have been likely anyway – Bengie Molina?

by nyyfaninlaaland on Oct 4, 2009 5:16 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Zero chance we sign Bengie Molina.

Tools Whore

by Tyler on Oct 4, 2009 5:22 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Torres isn't eligible

He signed at age 17 or 18 and has only played 4 seasons.

Vroom vroom party starter
www.raysprospects.com

by Imperialism32 on Oct 4, 2009 5:29 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

It isn't determined by playing seasons, but by signing date.

It’s a system that’s quite unfair to Latin players that sign young, but that’s how it works. I’ve seen any number of young NY Carib prospects come eligible with less than 5 US seasons.

by nyyfaninlaaland on Oct 4, 2009 9:03 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

The signing date just pertains to what age the player was when he signed

And then 5 seasons for guys who were <18, 4 seasons for guys who were 19>

Pretty sure that’s how it works.

Vroom vroom party starter
www.raysprospects.com

by Imperialism32 on Oct 4, 2009 10:57 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

An example to prove my point

Ivan Nova in Yanks system.

Signed in July 2004 at age 17. Played DSL 2005, in US 2006, 2007, 2008. Selected in 2008 Rule 5 draft by SD, returned to NY at end of spring. Rules in 2008 were the same as for 2009. Its the 5th draft after signing if 18 or under, 4 if 19 or over.

by nyyfaninlaaland on Oct 5, 2009 1:54 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

To compare

Torres signed in Jan. 2005 at age 17. Played DSL in 2005, in US in 2006, 2007, 2008, 2009. Actually more seasons total and in US then Nova heading into this draft. Only difference is that Torres signed after the 2004 Rule 5 draft.

by nyyfaninlaaland on Oct 5, 2009 2:35 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

How can we improve? Hopefully someone will develop into an ace

we have a very nice rotation, but none who we can hand the ball to and be almost certain of a victory

Price and Garza can be that guy—i hope

by sternfan1 on Oct 4, 2009 5:18 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

I don't see a certain victory anywhere in the league if the pitcher gets minimal run support

Gary Williams for President!
Put Rose in the Hall of Fame

by terp12 on Oct 4, 2009 8:38 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Don't need an ace

If the starters pitch in 2009 like they did in 2008, we would have made the playoffs, or at least have been in the race until the last week.

My fear is that the pitching will rebound, but that some of our surprise bats this year will regress.

Bad Left Hook - The SB Nation boxing blog
"Baseball is played on the field, not on a calculator."

by Brickhaus on Oct 5, 2009 12:31 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

IMHO 2009 is around the true talent of Garza and Shields

Still pretty good though.

Can we get robots for umpires and a computer to make in game strategy decisions? I'm sick of inconsistently bad umpiring and Joe's pitiful in game management. Oh and Navi (and BJ) need some PED's. BenZo, Bartlett, and Pena do not.

by matthan on Oct 5, 2009 12:33 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

If that's the case, Garza is a really damn good pitcher.

That home run rate will simmer down next year, I hope the strikeouts remain. 20% whiffs on his slider this year, amazing.

by R.J. Anderson on Oct 5, 2009 7:28 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Wow predicting the future

Let’s just forgo the season and schedule tee times for early October

*yawn*

by raysfan81 on Oct 4, 2009 6:28 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

What's the off-season topics that you've lined up?

Because I’m wondering if Sonny has thrown his last pitch as a Ray in the ML unless he improves a lot in the off-season.

by Transplanted on Oct 4, 2009 7:18 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Personally or overall?

Because I’ve got a Beckham piece tomorrow, then an Evan piece next week. After that I’ll get back into analyzing this year’s team. I think.

by R.J. Anderson on Oct 4, 2009 7:23 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Overall I guess, just curious how much I should expect to read in the future lol

by Transplanted on Oct 4, 2009 7:29 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

We'll probably have one good-sized post a day.

Not sure how much on Sonny, I’m tapped out on ways to look at his season beyond “Well, this was no good.”

by R.J. Anderson on Oct 4, 2009 7:34 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I'm not sure there is much else to write

He looks like Smoltz did when he pitched in the AL. Cutter bad=Sonny bad

by Transplanted on Oct 4, 2009 7:40 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

What happened to the DRB interview with Andrew Friedman?

What you think all the guns is for? All purpose war, got the Rottweilers by the door. And I feed 'em gunpowder, so they can devour the criminals, tryin' to drop my decimals.

by PriceMultiCyYoungs on Oct 4, 2009 7:40 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

TGN1 scared him away.

by Suttree on Oct 4, 2009 7:50 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

But not you....

What you think all the guns is for? All purpose war, got the Rottweilers by the door. And I feed 'em gunpowder, so they can devour the criminals, tryin' to drop my decimals.

by PriceMultiCyYoungs on Oct 4, 2009 7:51 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Got buried by his day job.

by R.J. Anderson on Oct 4, 2009 7:51 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

There are a lot of places this team can improve.

A little bit of personnel and roster construction, but a lot of it is focus and preparation. As many of the players said they were leaning on last years success quite a bit early this season. Also we attempted that don’t pitch your starters thing in spring training which IMHO backfired ever so slightly. A normal routine and a hungrier team would do us wonders. Obviously that is impossible to quantify, but I have little doubt it really hurt this squad. Then I think the collapse down the stretch was mainly due to the team not making the playoffs. It is human nature to feel dejected and play worse. I’m not saying that is the only reason why we sucked at the start and at the end, but I do think it played a major role in a few games here and there. Also Joe Maddon needs to manage a lot better. He alone blew a few games this year. All of that should result in another 10 to 15 wins or so.

by matthan on Oct 5, 2009 12:32 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs