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Rays Retain Jim Hickey; Hitting Coach Steve Henderson Let Loose

In case you haven't already heard, the Rays have met with all there coaches and there is a few surprises for next year's staff. Most of Joe Maddon's staff will remain intact including Jim Hickey, who will remain as the Rays pitching coach. The Rays hitting coach, Steve Henderson, however, will not be retained. Also the quality of the Rays will not be assured next season as Todd Greene and his quality assurance coach position has been eliminated.

We've had numerous debates about Hickey on this site and each time we've had these arguments we usually end up at the same conclusion; it's hard to quantify a coach's impact on a team with just raw statistics. Nonetheless, here are the numbers during the Hickey Era.

Star-divide

Team Hickey

ERA

FIP

K/9

BB/9

HR/9

2007

5.53

4.7

7.52

3.58

1.25

2008

3.82

4.22

7.06

3.25

1.02

2009

4.36

4.37

7.09

3.25

1.15

Nothing that we don't already know. The staff was awful in 2007. They went out and had a great year in 2008 before falling to average in 2009. The FIP fall wasn't as steep as the ERA fall thanks to near static K and BB/9 averages. Regardless on which side of the Hickey impact fence you fall on, when a pitching regresses as a whole while some of the pieces that were cast aside improved, the blame usually falls on the shoulders of the pitching coach.

While Hickey's retention was a little bit of a surprise, the decision to let Steve Henderson comes as a complete shock to me. Henderson is highly regarded amongst his players and the Rays set several franchise records including runs, home runs, walks and on-base percentage this year. It's kind of hard to put any blame for the subpar season on Henderson when the offense puts up the most runs in the teams history.

There's a theory floating around that Joe Maddon wants the team improve its situational hitting and have more productive outs. So if you are keeping score at home, Henderson's offense scored the most runs in Rays history, but their outs weren't good enough. Color me suspicious if I don't believe that's the real issue. Apparently, Keith Law isn't buying that theory either as he calls the move "Operation Fix B.J. Upton."

Either way, The Rays team wOBA improved each season under Hendu as well as their BB%.

Team Hendu

Runs

K%

BB%

wOBA

2006

689

20.2

7.5

0.317

2007

782

23.7

8.9

0.335

2008

774

22.1

10.2

0.336

2009

803

22.5

10.5

0.343

The Rays don't have any plans to name a successor in the near future, but that doesn't stop of from speculating. The short list of names we've come up with: Rudy Jamarillo, Wade Boggs (again), Fred McGriff, and DRB favorite Cliff Floyd. I know Floyd is an active player, but admit it...you want him back too.

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Also Rays offense since 2007 has averaged

In the top 10 in the majors in runs scored.

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by Tommy Rancel on Oct 5, 2009 8:40 PM EDT via mobile reply actions  

Hickey :(

2009 Rays Baseball: Welp.....we'll try again in 2010
2009 FSU Football: Bobby Bowden.........it's time to go
Be a TRUE Seminole: http://www.seminoles.com/sports/m-footbl/spec-rel/071509aab.html

by JMB on Oct 5, 2009 8:55 PM EDT reply actions  

Wrong move

Hickey must go.

Me babe, steppin' out
Into the night, into the light

by Orlando Rays on Oct 5, 2009 8:56 PM EDT reply actions  

HICKEY

MUST GO

J.J LOVE SPREADS while RAHEEM MORRIS'S PLAN FOR NFLDOMINECION IS COMING TO AN END.

by 4QB on Oct 5, 2009 9:03 PM EDT reply actions  

As I've always said, I have no idea what these coaches do

and how to evaluate if they are good or not. I do believe Rick Peterson is the best in the business and wanted to see him in our organization.

I had no opinion on Henderson, but if this is ‘Operation fix BJ Upton’ then I’m all for the move. Whatever it takes to get him where he needs to be. And where he needs to be in 2007 offense and this seasons defense. He’s just too absurdly talented not to be a consistent 5+ win player.

Tools Whore

by Tyler on Oct 5, 2009 9:16 PM EDT reply actions  

Im under the same assumption.

Coaches can say whatever they want, but I’m not sure what impact they really have. It would’ve been nice to have Peterson, but if our pitchers pitch to true talent level then the coach really doesn’t matter.

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by Tommy Rancel on Oct 5, 2009 9:22 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions  

It may have been a rumor

a couple of weeks ago I heard that Fred McGriff had been working with BJ. Helping him with stance and swing adjustments.

by gjsor on Oct 5, 2009 9:38 PM EDT reply actions  

If that is true, he is hired !

BJ looked pretty damn good the last couple weeks.

by raysrule44 on Oct 5, 2009 9:54 PM EDT up reply actions  

Uh-Huh?

J.J LOVE SPREADS while RAHEEM MORRIS'S PLAN FOR NFLDOMINECION IS COMING TO AN END.

by 4QB on Oct 5, 2009 9:56 PM EDT up reply actions  

Adjustments

The dumb thing is that adjustments BJ needed were pretty obvious earlier in the season. His legs being closer together and getting his foot down sooner shouldn’t have taken so long. IMO he should work in the offseason to eliminate his toe tap timing step. I guess we will see next year if any more adjustments are made.

Gary Williams for President!
Put Rose in the Hall of Fame

by terp12 on Oct 5, 2009 10:23 PM EDT up reply actions  

Anyone have stats on OBA Navi vs. Zaun?

Curious how much of an impact backstop has on pitching performance…if any. I know we’ve analyzed Neimann’s growth here along the lines of pitch selection. It may be worth re-visiting the staff 08 vs 09. Especially middle relief and/or holdovers.

by pslieber on Oct 6, 2009 7:38 AM EDT reply actions  

It is a bit misleading to compare year over year numbers with different players for a coach

That is punishing or rewarding them for moves by the FO and injuries etc.

Although even if you did just compare apples to apples nearly all pitchers get worse under Hickey. Next year we should expect more curves, less changeups, and higher individual FIPs. Hopefully Friedman upgrades the roster enough to compensate

Can we get robots for umpires and a computer to make in game strategy decisions? I'm sick of inconsistently bad umpiring and Joe's pitiful in game management. Oh and Navi (and BJ) need some PED's. BenZo, Bartlett, and Pena do not.

by matthan on Oct 6, 2009 8:32 AM EDT via mobile reply actions  

I doubt that you will. There won't be much SP turnover and Hickey isn't going to eliminate all other pitches save for the curve.

It will likely be about the same pitch type usage.

Lead singer, songwriter, and caterer for the band Suicide Phoenix. We play sitar-based anthems on real estate law. Available for weddings, birthdays (13+, please), and LAN parties.

by PlayOnWords on Oct 6, 2009 9:14 AM EDT up reply actions  

+1

J.J LOVE SPREADS while RAHEEM MORRIS'S PLAN FOR NFLDOMINECION IS COMING TO AN END.

by 4QB on Oct 6, 2009 11:43 AM EDT up reply actions  

Fix BJ Upton?

Are they hiring House?

Lead singer, songwriter, and caterer for the band Suicide Phoenix. We play sitar-based anthems on real estate law. Available for weddings, birthdays (13+, please), and LAN parties.

by PlayOnWords on Oct 6, 2009 9:15 AM EDT reply actions  

According to B-Ref's "productive outs."

The Rays % of productive out is 30. The Red Sox 30% and the Yankees 31%.

The percentage of a runner on third scoring with less than 2 outs

Yankees 54%
Red Sox 53%
Rays 51%

www.draysbay.com

by Tommy Rancel on Oct 6, 2009 9:51 AM EDT via mobile reply actions  

My guess is that it won't be that bad

I don’t remember the specifics from previous years, but this year was fairly decent. Benzo, Zobrist, and CC improved. Longo and Pena were Longo and Pena. Navi regressed, but back to 2007 levels. So if you punish Hendo you have to give him kudos for it 2008. Upton is the wild card, but he has been hurt. But then again I haven’t dug into the numbers, that is just my hunch.

Can we get robots for umpires and a computer to make in game strategy decisions? I'm sick of inconsistently bad umpiring and Joe's pitiful in game management. Oh and Navi (and BJ) need some PED's. BenZo, Bartlett, and Pena do not.

by matthan on Oct 6, 2009 2:26 PM EDT up reply actions  

Reggie Smith

That guy is a genius.

Representin' the West Side of Mulberry!

by SeanDubbs on Oct 6, 2009 10:53 AM EDT reply actions  

Leo Mazzone

nothing else need be said

Atlanta v Baltimore—same approach—different pitchers

by sternfan1 on Oct 6, 2009 12:22 PM EDT reply actions  

You need to compare apples to apples

All you can ask a coach to do is maximize their players ability. How good that ability is should be irrelevant to in determining how good the coach is. You can not and should not penalize or reward the coach for talent on the team. Far too often we look at ability in a vacuum. I’d rather have the coach that gets Vicente Padilla pitching at 100% of his talent rather than someone who only gets 75% out of Roy Halladay.

Can we get robots for umpires and a computer to make in game strategy decisions? I'm sick of inconsistently bad umpiring and Joe's pitiful in game management. Oh and Navi (and BJ) need some PED's. BenZo, Bartlett, and Pena do not.

by matthan on Oct 6, 2009 2:29 PM EDT up reply actions  

Who was Zobrist's private hitting coach?

Gary Williams for President!
Put Rose in the Hall of Fame

by terp12 on Oct 6, 2009 2:02 PM EDT reply actions  

Jamie Cevallos

Here’s his website. He was also interviewed by Tommy earlier this year.

I can't wait until we trade him for a reliever.

by kericr on Oct 6, 2009 2:12 PM EDT up reply actions  

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