Numbers not Tampa Bay Rays' guide in decisions

From St. Pete Times

"I really think Hick is a very good pitching coach, and I think he did a great job this year, actually," Maddon said. "Sometimes pitchers have to be accountable to their own work, also.

"I watch him on a daily basis and I know how he prepares, I know how he works with these guys, I know what he's like in the dugout, I know how much he cares. I see all that stuff daily. I've worked with a lot of different pitching coaches … and I really rank him among the best."

Maddon said that "the things that went wrong were pretty much out of his control," such as relievers running out of gas and having to break in three rookie starters against AL East competition, and that criticism of Hickey — a common topic on blogs — is unwarranted.

"You just can't evaluate this whole thing based on ERA; that's where people become confused," Maddon said. "I think he's actually done a very good job, regardless of what any fan may say."

over 2 years ago FreeZorilla 70 comments 0 recs |

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Looks like Maddon vs. matthan is heating up

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by FreeZorilla on Oct 6, 2009 1:18 PM EDT reply actions

does SuperJoe read DRB?

by sternfan1 on Oct 6, 2009 1:21 PM EDT reply actions

He quoted ERA...

Something we wouldn’t use in an argument for or against Hickey.

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by Tommy Rancel on Oct 6, 2009 1:28 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions

He isn't going to quote FIP to the MSM even if he was referring to us.

by rglass44 on Oct 6, 2009 1:58 PM EDT up reply actions

I think doing so would hurt him more than help us.

by R.J. Anderson on Oct 6, 2009 2:01 PM EDT up reply actions

Maddon is wrong.

Obviously we can’t comment on the process, but the results have been bad. I just hope they don’t sign him to anything more than a 1 year deal.

by RaysTheRoof on Oct 6, 2009 1:26 PM EDT reply actions

Trade Hickey for a reliever.

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by PlayOnWords on Oct 6, 2009 1:26 PM EDT reply actions

Various chatter about Hickey.

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by Tommy Rancel on Oct 6, 2009 1:27 PM EDT via mobile reply actions

The suggestion that the process has been good and there has to be better accountability was the my principle argument against the Hickey bashing.

If Maddon thinks things behind the scenes, the preparation, the studying, the advice, is good, then there’s no point in firing Hickey – Joe would have to go, too.

We’ll see how the pitchers rebound next year, I suppose.

by Suttree on Oct 6, 2009 1:27 PM EDT reply actions

2010 will be the key

Throwing out 2007 for obvious reasons, we’ve had one good season and one average season under his watch. Some people have regressed, some improved, some static. Overall, the FIP difference wasn’t nearly as big as the ERA difference.

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by Tommy Rancel on Oct 6, 2009 1:31 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions

2010 is the biggest year in this team's history.

They aren’t kids anymore. They’ve been to the top of the mountain and down in the shit and they’ve done it, largely, together. The youngsters have had time to develop, the old boys still have some gas left, and a little new blood has been and will be brought in. On talent and maturity – this is the year we should expect it to come together. No more wild swings in luck like we had the past two years.

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by PlayOnWords on Oct 6, 2009 1:34 PM EDT up reply actions

so you're saying the time is NOW!

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by Tommy Rancel on Oct 6, 2009 2:32 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions

No. It's still 2009. The time is THEN.

Lead singer, songwriter, and caterer for the band Suicide Phoenix. We play sitar-based anthems on real estate law. Available for weddings, birthdays (13+, please), and LAN parties.

by PlayOnWords on Oct 6, 2009 2:42 PM EDT up reply actions

OR LATER

J.J LOVE SPREADS while RAHEEM MORRIS'S PLAN FOR NFLDOMINECION IS COMING TO AN END.

by 4QB on Oct 7, 2009 11:03 AM EDT up reply actions

Nobody here is using ERA, so whatever.

by R.J. Anderson on Oct 6, 2009 1:45 PM EDT reply actions

True

Somehow looking at individual and aggregate K rates, BB rates, HR rates, pitch usage trends, etc from one pitching coach to Hickey, from Yr1 to Yr2 under Hickey, and from Hickey to a new pitching coach turned into comparing 08 team ERA to 09 team ERA.

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by FreeZorilla on Oct 6, 2009 1:58 PM EDT up reply actions

You gotta dumb it down.

by rglass44 on Oct 6, 2009 1:59 PM EDT up reply actions

Dumbing it down would be comparing 1 year results to the next

Quoting a stat is inaccurate. Then again, maybe he isn’t referring to DRB. Quick e-mail him some links before a deal is worked out!

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by FreeZorilla on Oct 6, 2009 2:00 PM EDT up reply actions

If he's referencing the work done here, he's not dumbing it down; he's being dishonest.

by R.J. Anderson on Oct 6, 2009 2:03 PM EDT up reply actions

Do you think Maddon is going to drop tRA and FIP to the MSM?

Come on folks.

by rglass44 on Oct 6, 2009 1:59 PM EDT up reply actions

thank you

Maybe I’m just an old fashioned BJ suck-off-er. (Good call Sandy)

by Lurch's Lobbyists on Oct 6, 2009 1:59 PM EDT up reply actions

Do you think he looks at FIP or tRA?

I sure as hell don’t.

Not that I have an issue with him because of it, but come on.

by R.J. Anderson on Oct 6, 2009 2:02 PM EDT up reply actions

While besides the point, the "come on" argument doesn't really do it for me.

There’s no evidence either way for what data Maddon assimilates while enjoying a Cab. Sav.

Maybe I’m just an old fashioned BJ suck-off-er. (Good call Sandy)

by Lurch's Lobbyists on Oct 6, 2009 2:07 PM EDT up reply actions

This is the same Joe Maddon who dropped Carlos Pena to sixth against right-handers, right?

The same Maddon who keeps track of things like guys who reach base with two outs and seems to think there’s value in it?

Maybe he does get FIP/tRA reports from Click and whomever else, but I don’t see him looking at tRA then deciding that Troy Percival is not only a major league reliever, but the one he should use in the highest leveraged situations.

by R.J. Anderson on Oct 6, 2009 2:09 PM EDT up reply actions

I'm referring to referencing work done on "blogs."

Suprise, suprise there is mroe than one Rays blog. Maddon also never said anything about blogs per the article. To assume that if they were referencing this site, they would use OUR terminology is pretty dense.

by rglass44 on Oct 6, 2009 2:09 PM EDT up reply actions

Saying "stats" instead of "ERA" isn't that hard.

I don’t think he’s talking about DRB anyways.

by R.J. Anderson on Oct 6, 2009 2:11 PM EDT up reply actions

Me either...

i just think he says ERA because that’s what 99% of the readership defines as a pitching metric.

by rglass44 on Oct 6, 2009 2:12 PM EDT up reply actions

Well yeah.

by R.J. Anderson on Oct 6, 2009 2:13 PM EDT up reply actions

I do feel some of the Hendo defenders are looking through Hickey colored glasses

We can’t just look at team stats compared to the past. We have to look at individuals and the aggregate change yr/yr and also from prior team to the Rays and from the Rays to the next team. The #’s run similar to Hickey. Tune in Thursday.

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by FreeZorilla on Oct 6, 2009 2:04 PM EDT reply actions

Is anyone really defending Henderson though?

I mean, I mocked the “productive outs” reasoning provided by Topkin or Pravda, but I don’t think the differences between Henderson and the next guy are going to be anything but marginal either way.

For the record: I only wanted Hickey fired if it meant Rick Peterson. Not just because.

by R.J. Anderson on Oct 6, 2009 2:08 PM EDT up reply actions

The way some posters talk here, it's like the entire staff cratered

I’ve been out of the loop here for months while 1) finishing PhD, 2) moving to Denmark. (Sidenote: I don’t even think people here know what a baseball looks like.) Can someone show me (or point me to the post) where it’s demonstrated that tRA and FIP regressed noticeably from 2008 to 2009 outside of the statistical noise for those parameters. R^2 values would be nice…I’m still freaked out by the values for UZR and wOBA….but that’s besides the point.

I’m not a Hickey apologist, but I think calling for his job after an average season is a little silly. 2010 will be a better litmus.

Maybe I’m just an old fashioned BJ suck-off-er. (Good call Sandy)

by Lurch's Lobbyists on Oct 6, 2009 2:06 PM EDT reply actions

matthan did a series about how pitchers fared with/with out hickey.

Pretty interesting read.

by rglass44 on Oct 6, 2009 2:11 PM EDT up reply actions

Thanks, I will look for it!

Maybe I’m just an old fashioned BJ suck-off-er. (Good call Sandy)

by Lurch's Lobbyists on Oct 6, 2009 2:12 PM EDT up reply actions

Here.

http://www.draysbay.com/2009/6/16/911833/jim-hickey-analysis-part-1
http://www.draysbay.com/2009/6/17/912493/jim-hickey-statistical-analysis

by R.J. Anderson on Oct 6, 2009 2:15 PM EDT up reply actions

Also

http://www.draysbay.com/2009/6/19/917955/the-progression-of-pitchers-under
http://www.draysbay.com/2009/5/26/887600/looking-at-jim-hickey
http://www.draysbay.com/2009/7/5/938924/the-decline-of-rays-starting

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by FreeZorilla on Oct 6, 2009 2:19 PM EDT up reply actions

Jeez...I missed a lot.

Maybe I’m just an old fashioned BJ suck-off-er. (Good call Sandy)

by Lurch's Lobbyists on Oct 6, 2009 2:39 PM EDT up reply actions

Any idea on the Top Rays blogs ranked by web traffic?

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by FreeZorilla on Oct 6, 2009 2:11 PM EDT up reply actions

This is an odd reply.

by R.J. Anderson on Oct 6, 2009 2:12 PM EDT up reply actions

anti-reply fail

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by FreeZorilla on Oct 6, 2009 2:12 PM EDT up reply actions

Try fiddling

http://www.statsaholic.com/raysindex.com+draysbay.com

Can’t tell about OPS or Heater because they don’t have their own domain names.

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by Brickhaus on Oct 6, 2009 2:33 PM EDT up reply actions

If OPS even exists anymore

Bad Left Hook - The SB Nation boxing blog
"Baseball is played on the field, not on a calculator."

by Brickhaus on Oct 6, 2009 2:35 PM EDT up reply actions

pwnt

by rglass44 on Oct 6, 2009 2:43 PM EDT up reply actions

OPS was bought out by DRB and Tommy and I retired from our day jobs.

by Erik Hahmann on Oct 6, 2009 4:48 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions

We are on pace for 1 million unique visits in 2009

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by Tommy Rancel on Oct 6, 2009 2:39 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions

That was a nice cheese basket you sent to all of us Top Commenters.

Lead singer, songwriter, and caterer for the band Suicide Phoenix. We play sitar-based anthems on real estate law. Available for weddings, birthdays (13+, please), and LAN parties.

by PlayOnWords on Oct 6, 2009 2:41 PM EDT up reply actions

As the heart and soul of DRB I appreciated the foot massage

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by Top Gun Numba 1 on Oct 6, 2009 3:07 PM EDT up reply actions

Moved to Denmark?

What part? I studied there for a semester…lovely country. Cold as heck, but I loved it there.

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by Steve Slowinski on Oct 6, 2009 8:52 PM EDT up reply actions

Rays blogs popularity

I am assuming DRB is up there. The Fire Hickey meme started pretty early here among some. Its hard for me to believe the FO isn’t aware of the work DRB did. Not saying its Top Notch stuff, but at least the greater minds would look into it.

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by FreeZorilla on Oct 6, 2009 2:14 PM EDT reply actions

I think DRB is probs #1.

RI is probably up there as well, and it wouldn’t suprise me if Cork was on the fire hickey BW as well. I don’t go there because it’s generally mindless drivel, so I wouldn’t know.

The FO is definitely aware of what we do here. I doubt they give it any weight in decision making.

by rglass44 on Oct 6, 2009 2:33 PM EDT up reply actions

Theres no way they would make a decision based on DRB

If they take the time to read it, they almost certainly dig deeper and smarter on certain things

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by FreeZorilla on Oct 6, 2009 2:34 PM EDT up reply actions

Also we looked just pure quantitative stuff over a handful of years

There could quite possibly be other things that swing things in Hickeys favor. Perhaps they like how he is with young pitchers. Perhaps they don’t think they could have gotten RP and don’t feel there is an upgrade available. Perhaps Hickey has naughty photos from Maddons and Friedmans weddings. Who knows?

Can we get robots for umpires and a computer to make in game strategy decisions? I'm sick of inconsistently bad umpiring and Joe's pitiful in game management. Oh and Navi (and BJ) need some PED's. BenZo, Bartlett, and Pena do not.

by matthan on Oct 6, 2009 2:37 PM EDT up reply actions

Yep when dealing with coaches there's

A lot more than meets the eye. We can have all the posts about improvements/regressions under a coach, but without that “behind the scenes” access it’s hard to quantify what the team is looking at/for from a specific coach.

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by Tommy Rancel on Oct 6, 2009 2:42 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions