Evan Longoria and The 500 Home Run Club

As 2010 projections start to be released, we will take a look at some of the more important ones from time to time. Projections are what they are, but they are still fun to look at. All in all, I would say the ZiPs projections are a bit more realistic than the Bill James projections because ZiPs tends to be a bit conservative. Aside from the single season projections, you may have noticed that the ZiPs projections include an extrapolated career projection; most namely the projection of Evan Longoria.

In case you missed it, according to ZiPs, Longoria will finish his career with a line of .263/.349/.501 and 526 home runs in 2535 career games. Remember that we take the yearly projections with a grain of salt, so this roughly ~16 year projection should be taken even more lightly. Nonetheless, there isn't much going and it's nice to dream of Longoria hitting that 526th home run as a member of the Rays.

Currently, there are 25 members of the 500 home run club with more to be added over the next decade. By the time Longoria is projected to be approaching such a milestone the membership could be close to double.

Here is the list as it stands today...

 

 

HR

AB

Barry Bonds

762

9847

Hank Aaron

755

12364

Babe Ruth

714

8398

Willie Mays

660

10881

Ken Griffey Jr.

630

9703

Sammy Sosa

609

8813

Frank Robinson

586

10006

Mark McGwire

583

6187

Alex Rodriguez

583

8304

Harmon Killebrew

573

8147

Rafael Palmeiro

569

10472

Jim Thome

564

7706

Reggie Jackson

563

9864

Mike Schmidt

548

8352

Manny Ramirez

546

7962

Mickey Mantle

536

8102

Jimmie Foxx

534

8134

Ted Williams

521

7706

Willie McCovey

521

8197

Frank Thomas

521

8199

Eddie Matthews

512

8537

Ernie Banks

512

9421

Mel Ott

511

9456

Gary Sheffield

509

9217

Eddie Murray

504

11336

Obviously, longevity is a must. Even Mark McGwire, who has the least about of at-bats of any member, needed over 6,100 at-bats. McGwire by far has the best HR/AB ratio hitting a "dinger' nearly every 10.6 at-bats or a full AB better than second place Babe Ruth, who averaged a home run every 11.7 at-bats. Longoria is no where near that kind of pace, but he is still ahead of six players in the club

HR Per AB

Mark McGwire

10.61235

Babe Ruth

11.7619

Barry Bonds

12.92257

Jim Thome

13.66312

Harmon Killebrew

14.21815

Alex Rodriguez

14.24357

Sammy Sosa

14.47126

Manny Ramirez

14.58242

Ted Williams

14.79079

Mickey Mantle

15.11567

Jimmie Foxx

15.23221

Mike Schmidt

15.24088

Ken Griffey Jr

15.40159

Willie McCovey

15.73321

Frank Thomas

15.73704

Hank Aaron

16.37616

Willie Mays

16.48636

Eddie Matthews

16.67383

Frank Robinson

17.07509

Evan Longoria

17.2

Reggie Jackson

17.52043

Gary Sheffield

18.10806

Ernie Banks

18.40039

Rafael Palmeiro

18.40422

Mel Ott

18.50489

Eddie Murray

22.49206

 

A few other things to note...

  • In 2008, Longo's HR/AB was 16.59, but dropped to 17.6 in 2009. Injuries seem to have slowed him down at bit last year, but a 17.2 average is pretty good in its own right.
  • Right now Longoria's rate is closest to Frank Robinson. It took Robinson nearly 8,500 at-bats to get to 500. If Longoria stays on his current pace of 17.2, it would take 8,600 to get to 500. That means Longo would need to keep his same HR rate and amass 600 at-bats each year for the next 14+ seasons.
  • Aside from the 526 homers, the projection has Longoria hitting 628 doubles. Only Hank Aaron (624) and Barry Bonds (601) have hit 500+ home runs and 600+ doubles.
  • Longoria currently hits a double every 13.76 ABs. That pace is better than any member of the 500 home run club with Ted Williams' 14.76 coming as second best.
  • The last statistic I looked at was walks. Longoria ranks in the bottom third in terms of walk rates amongst the list, but at age 24 he has plenty of time to practice his patience at the plate.

Odds are Longoria won't play long enough to actually hit 500 home runs, and the odds are even longer that if he does it will be as a member of the Rays. He would need to play for another 14 or 15 years at a high level and avoid a major injury. While the quest for 500 may fall short, the fact that we have a player so talented that 500 home runs doesn't seem that crazy is pretty good.

X
Log In Sign Up

forgot?
Log In Sign Up

Please choose a new SB Nation username and password

As part of the new SB Nation launch, prior users will need to choose a permanent username, along with a new password.

Your username will be used to login to SB Nation going forward.

I already have a Vox Media account!

Verify Vox Media account

Please login to your Vox Media account. This account will be linked to your previously existing Eater account.

Please choose a new SB Nation username and password

As part of the new SB Nation launch, prior MT authors will need to choose a new username and password.

Your username will be used to login to SB Nation going forward.

Forgot password?

We'll email you a reset link.

If you signed up using a 3rd party account like Facebook or Twitter, please login with it instead.

Forgot password?

Try another email?

Almost done,

By becoming a registered user, you are also agreeing to our Terms and confirming that you have read our Privacy Policy.

Join DRaysBay

You must be a member of DRaysBay to participate.

We have our own Community Guidelines at DRaysBay. You should read them.

Join DRaysBay

You must be a member of DRaysBay to participate.

We have our own Community Guidelines at DRaysBay. You should read them.

Spinner.vc97ec6e

Authenticating

Great!

Choose an available username to complete sign up.

In order to provide our users with a better overall experience, we ask for more information from Facebook when using it to login so that we can learn more about our audience and provide you with the best possible experience. We do not store specific user data and the sharing of it is not required to login with Facebook.

tracking_pixel_9351_tracker