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Hello all. I've written a fanpost discussing possible trade solutions for the A's and Rays, leveraging the fact that the Rays have infielders and starting pitchers while the A's have catchers and bullpen pitchers aplenty. I'd like to hear both sides of the issue, though, not just A's fans. Are my proposals logical? Too favorable to one team or the other? I think this could be a great discussion, but I need your help to make it so.

10 days ago Tiny PaulThomas 52 comments 1 recs  | 

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Great work. You obviously have done some deep thought.

it’s interesting to see an outsiders view on our players in our system.

In the name of Shinji Mori, we shall win!

by thebaddancingraysfan on Nov 10, 2009 7:03 AM EST reply actions   0 recs

Since I can't post over there for a day thanks to this shiny new account, I just wanted to do this

I think there are two fundamental flaws to Mr. Thomas’s line of thinking. 1) He is extremely over-valuing Donaldson. Throughout the piece there was a glossing over of the A’s players and any gaps in the history were filled in optimistically, the exact opposite was performed for the Rays spects. I get it, if you want to buy-low, you’re not going to talk about how awesome the product is and vice-versa if you’re trying to sell high. Donaldson doesn’t give us anything we don’t have. Luke Bailey projects better defensively and offensively.

2) At no point were park effects mentioned during the quite good breakdowns of the relief corps. Bailey and Wuertz are elite and could thrive in less habitable environments, but the rest of those guys I am not sold on (I’m sure I’m not the only one that wishes Josh Outman hadn’t fallen prey to the injury bug). I wasn’t able to split out the relievers from the starters, but according to b-ref the home/away FIP’s would be 3.83/4.49, respectively, for all of the A’s pitchers. The wOBA splits would come out close to 0.312/0.337. These are quite a big difference. The Rays saw a similar wOBA split going from 0.311 at home to 0.337 on the road, while their home FIP was 4.09 ballooning to 4.77 on the road. I also have to think that facing Seattle and Texas a whopping 67 times is going to help out your numbers.

In no way, would I trade Sean Rodriguez with giving him a chance to show what he can do in Durham. That’s a first thing, secondly, I’m not trading Reid Brignac. Thirdly, the only guy that I would want on the A’s is Andrew Bailey. He could fill a need, inexpensively. Jake McGee is kind of a question mark, as anyone coming back from TJS would be. I would like to see a Bailey for McGee/Talbot/E. Johnson type trade. The A’s would be getting two credible arms as well as a power SH guy that can play 7 positions.

I'm not really a NUMBERS guy!!

by Andy Hellicksonstine on Nov 10, 2009 11:46 AM EST reply actions   2 recs

Hellicksonstine is starting to make a name for himself.

I appreciate the work Paul put into this, but I think Andy covers my opinion.

Follow Me on Twitter @FreeZorilla

by FreeZorilla on Nov 10, 2009 11:52 AM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Thanks buddy

I'm not really a NUMBERS guy!!

by Andy Hellicksonstine on Nov 10, 2009 12:12 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

A fair response

Although I have to say if the A’s traded Bailey for a SP type outa TB (unless we’re talking Shields or Garza… which we aren’t) I’d have to want Beane’s head on a pike somewhere. (I don’t have a front yard and the patio is a little cozy for that kind of thing.) If the A’s shop Bailey it’ll be to land a position player, probably a SS. And no, I’d have no interest in a Bailey for Brignac swap ’cause I hate his bat.

The monster at the end of this blog.

by grover on Nov 10, 2009 12:15 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Bartlett for Bailey & Suzuki?

It’s obviously hard to get a read on Beane’s philosophy of this year, but Bartlett is still going to be worth more than his arb value this year and next and he would be in position to flip him at any time or keep the picks.

I'm not really a NUMBERS guy!!

by Andy Hellicksonstine on Nov 10, 2009 12:19 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

No chance in Hell

 Why dig a new hole behind the plate to fill a hole at SS for the next two years? Suzuki+Bailey combined for 6.1 WAR (adding Kurt’s D) vs. Bartlett’s 4.8 WAR. The A’s duo will earn less than $1 million next season while your SS is going to get a nice raise from the $1.9 million he made in 2009. So the A’s would be paying more to get less production over fewer years.

Nope.

The monster at the end of this blog.

by grover on Nov 10, 2009 12:36 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

What hole?

You guys have Luke Donaldson knocking on the door to be let in, you told me so yourself. :)

I'm not really a NUMBERS guy!!

by Andy Hellicksonstine on Nov 10, 2009 12:47 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

I said no such thing.

:-)

The monster at the end of this blog.

by grover on Nov 10, 2009 12:49 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

The problem is obviously on your side

The A’s will do anything I tell them to do…

except win.

The monster at the end of this blog.

by grover on Nov 10, 2009 12:59 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

I believe J. P. Ricciardi is available

He’s won some games, maybe it’s time for a change.

I'm not really a NUMBERS guy!!

by Andy Hellicksonstine on Nov 10, 2009 1:02 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Spring Training is a long way off

I don’t understand Andy’s stance on Brignac. The Rays dumping Bartlett soon?

The monster at the end of this blog.

by grover on Nov 10, 2009 12:58 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

OK, but you're still looking at an average or better starting SS

Even if Bartlett turns back into a pumpkin. I really don’t like Brignac’s bat, so that’s my bias, but I have a hard time seeing how he’s going to unseat Bartlett for the starting job. So from my perspective I don’t see how two years of Brignac riding the shuttle from Tampa to Durham helps the Rays win more games than trading him for a bullpen arm.

Something like Wuertz for Brignac.

The monster at the end of this blog.

by grover on Nov 10, 2009 1:10 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Correct me if I'm wrong

But Brignac has already burned through two options years which means that at some point during the length of Bartlett’s current indebtedness to Tampa Reid will either burn through his remaining option AND spend a season on the bench or he’ll spend two years on Tampa’s bench.

If it’s the latter, than Reid Brignac will likely do little to improve the Rays’ ability to win baseball games unless the preferred choice at SS gets seriously hurt. And once Bartlett leaves as a FA you’ll have only 4 years of Reid as the starting SS. (And don’t get me wrong, if you believe in Reid than that’s a beautiful thing! I have prayed for the A’s to find a competent SS for the past 5 years.)

Now, if you think that Bartlett is going to price himself out of Tampa before he hits his FA walk year and therefore you’ll need Brignac sooner than 2012 then that’s all you need to say to me. But if that’s not the scenario you see playing out than Tampa’s best case scenario with Brignac (time management category) involves a third season in AAA while using up his last option year plus a year on a big league bench. Basically, unless Bartlett leaves early there’s no way the Rays are getting six years of starting level production out of Brignac.

And for the record, Wuertz is under team control for two more years.

The monster at the end of this blog.

by grover on Nov 10, 2009 1:48 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Maybe it's just me

But I think Bartlett’s pretty much a lock to get traded this offseason.

Bad Left Hook - The SB Nation boxing blog
"Baseball is played on the field, not on a calculator."

by Brickhaus on Nov 10, 2009 3:19 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

This answers my question

What would other teams be willing to give up a bigger package for a few years of Bartlett, with one year of exceptional bat and declining defense, or a whole bundle of the cost controlled Brignac with questions about his bat but a superior glove. I think the Rays have a duty to explore the market value of each before deciding how to proceed. Bringing both back would be a mistake.

Follow Me on Twitter @FreeZorilla

by FreeZorilla on Nov 10, 2009 1:24 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Like two ships passing in the night, as Barty has contributed more offensive value, his UZR, specifically his Range Runs,

has been in a pretty steady decline over his career. No surprise there, but when his bat does regress to career normalcy, he won’t have the above-average glove that he had in his younger years. I’d prefer an above-average defensive SS at the expense of a bat for league minimum at that point. Peep this:
Year Inn DPR RngR ErrR UZR UZR/150
2005 585.7 0.6 12.5 1.2 14.4 28.5
2006 879.7 (3.8) 14.9 0.4 11.5 16.1
2007 1,194.0 (0.1) 11.9 (4.0) 7.8 9.0
2008 1,097.0 – 4.2 (2.1) 2.1 2.9
2009 1,153.7 (4.0) (0.3) (1.3) (5.5) (6.8)

add in this:

and I think you can see just how locked in Bartlett was this year.

I'm not really a NUMBERS guy!!

by Andy Hellicksonstine on Nov 10, 2009 1:24 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Looking at this another way

 Inn…. DPR RngR ErrR UZR UZR/150
 4,910 (0.4) 1.0 (0.4) 0.2 0.4

This uses the table that is awfully-formatted above, but uses innings as a weight, as well as weights of 5/3/2/1/1 for 09/08/07/06/05. His best years were partial seasons, so maybe Jaybles just gets worn down over the course of a season (or more likely the sample size approaches more reasonable levels), but with these weights his UZR has been 0.2 over the term looked at.

I'm not really a NUMBERS guy!!

by Andy Hellicksonstine on Nov 10, 2009 1:29 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

I really wish the SB Nation format allowed for Excel

You might want to consider opening up a free account on google to use their online spreadsheets. I can’t read the numbers you posted, looking at that jumble gives me a headache.

Like I said above, if you think the better move is to trade Bartlett and keep Brignac then that’s all I need to hear. I just don’t see the wisdom in keeping both over the next two years if the goal is to try and beat the Yankees for the division. If that’s not the plan than we’re groovy.

The monster at the end of this blog.

by grover on Nov 10, 2009 2:03 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Thank you

Much easier to read.

The monster at the end of this blog.

by grover on Nov 10, 2009 2:16 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

I would question your love of relievers

I get that it is a team strength, but where has that led your team? Relievers simply aren’t as valuable as position players or starting pitching.

Follow Me on Twitter @FreeZorilla

by FreeZorilla on Nov 10, 2009 1:25 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

I agree completely

Having a good bullpen does not help you win games when you have replacement level production at 1B, 3B, SS and in the rotation.

At the same time, your bullpen didn’t do the Rays any favors last season, did they? You do have IF depth, which is why it makes some sense (on a theoretical level, at least) to explore trading some of that depth for improvement at a weaker position.

The monster at the end of this blog.

by grover on Nov 10, 2009 1:56 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

The pen issues last year had a lot to do with injured old players that the Rays banked on

Percy, Shouse, Bradford, Isringhausen. Balfour and Howell were still solid and very good respectively. You can rebuild a pen without giving up assets to do so. Furthermore, relievers are generally so inconsistent year/year. If there is a position where buying low would best serve you, its the pen.

Follow Me on Twitter @FreeZorilla

by FreeZorilla on Nov 10, 2009 2:02 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Except that plan didn't work so well last year, did it?

All the Rays did was invest cash, they didn’t give up any prospects (as I recall) to land those first 4. And they blew up.

I think it is perfectly reasonable to ask your team to find 1 or 2 cheap arms for the bullpen in a given offseason. If you need to fill 4 spots, going cheap isn’t going to get it done. You’ll have to make some kind of investment (be financial or in prospects) to build the pen.

The monster at the end of this blog.

by grover on Nov 10, 2009 2:07 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

I can agree with that to the point that I want to lower variation

I’m all for finding Choate out there with our spaghetti-on-the-wall Spring Training, but I would like to find a guy with a track-record of proven success. Wheeler is supposed to be that guy, but he is virtually unusable with a fly ball hitter at the plate as a tying run. I would like a top-flite reliever on the cheap, but still think a lot of pieces will fall into place as everything sorts itself out.

I'm not really a NUMBERS guy!!

by Andy Hellicksonstine on Nov 10, 2009 2:11 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

For the record

I think asking any team to find 4 cheap and effective bullpen arms in an offseason is asking too much.

The monster at the end of this blog.

by grover on Nov 10, 2009 2:19 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

No doubt, but you can bring 50 guys into ST for a shot and see who wants it

I like that Chavez et al. will be given the opportunity to collect a major league paycheck, provided, they bust their ass in the offseason to stay in shape, while getting their arms ready. I much prefer that over the Percival’s of the world that are just handed a job. If they can find 2 diamonds in the rough this way, sign a FA for below-market (Benoit, Calero, etc…) and then pick up another guy at the trade deadline, then they have added 4 guys to a bullpen that already features a relief ace, a guy one season removed from being a top-5 reliever, and some good situational guys.

I'm not really a NUMBERS guy!!

by Andy Hellicksonstine on Nov 10, 2009 2:29 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

I can't wait until Hellickson is our 8th inning man, handing the ball to Sonnanstine in the 9th

My relief fantasy will loosen from me in a deluge.

I'm not really a NUMBERS guy!!

by Andy Hellicksonstine on Nov 10, 2009 2:39 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

I hate to go back to plugging my own stuff here,

but do you see where my surplus value argument comes into play here?

If your choices are to convert a great SP prospect like Hellickson to a relief pitcher, or instead trade him for two or three relief pitchers, why would you choose #1? It’s a waste of his talent. Both teams (you and the hypothetical trade partner) are worse off.

Even assuming that the conversion is only temporary, which is plausible enough— exactly how much starting pitching depth does a team need? When you’re in a contending phase, as the Rays are right now, you have to start moving assets from areas of depth to areas of weakness.

Linda's in the cold ground, won't see her anymore
Somewhere out on the highway tonight, the drunken engines roar
It's just one of those things, one of those things
-- Al Stewart, "Accident on 3rd St."
In memory of Nick Adenhart and all victims of drunk driving

by PaulThomas on Nov 10, 2009 5:48 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

I was referring to a temporary conversion

a la Price 98. See Kazmir and Sonny 09 for why you need pitching depth. In the past 12 months we have traded away Edwin and Kaz and watched the decimation of Sonny. We manage our depth wisely and it does not involve relievers.

Follow Me on Twitter @FreeZorilla

by FreeZorilla on Nov 10, 2009 9:47 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Which one of these numbers is not like the others?

34
109
109
59
285
94

Those are Grant Balfour’s seasonal ERA+ marks. His career mark is 108— barely above league-average for a relief pitcher.

If you’re willing to rely on that track record for late-inning work, you’re a braver man than I am, that’s all I can say.

Linda's in the cold ground, won't see her anymore
Somewhere out on the highway tonight, the drunken engines roar
It's just one of those things, one of those things
-- Al Stewart, "Accident on 3rd St."
In memory of Nick Adenhart and all victims of drunk driving

by PaulThomas on Nov 10, 2009 5:53 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Who is Luke Bailey?

Serious question. I have never heard of this guy.

Linda's in the cold ground, won't see her anymore
Somewhere out on the highway tonight, the drunken engines roar
It's just one of those things, one of those things
-- Al Stewart, "Accident on 3rd St."
In memory of Nick Adenhart and all victims of drunk driving

by PaulThomas on Nov 10, 2009 5:38 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Ah.

Um.

The lack of any professional games played kind of bites into his prospective value, methinks.

WIthout being overly dismissive of his talents, about which I know little other than what’s linked here, he signed for half the bonus that Max Stassi did, and I have Donaldson rated significantly higher than Max Stassi in the A’s system right now. Relying on a high school catcher who just signed to make an impact at that position (or any position, for that matter) in the majors is, IMO, a recipe for severe disappointment.

Linda's in the cold ground, won't see her anymore
Somewhere out on the highway tonight, the drunken engines roar
It's just one of those things, one of those things
-- Al Stewart, "Accident on 3rd St."
In memory of Nick Adenhart and all victims of drunk driving

by PaulThomas on Nov 10, 2009 6:02 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Judging from the comments on your post

it seems most A’s supporters feel you overvalue Donaldson

Follow Me on Twitter @FreeZorilla

by FreeZorilla on Nov 10, 2009 9:51 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

I agree

If it’s a choice between trading for a guy that you know has a low-ceiling, high-bust potential, why not just plug a gap for 2-3 years and then bring up the guy that has high-ceiling, high-reward written all over him.

I'm not really a NUMBERS guy!!

by Andy Hellicksonstine on Nov 10, 2009 10:59 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Donaldson has a much higher ceilling than people give him credit for.

This is the case I made for him in the Community Prospect poll

"Since other people actually read these threads, though, probably best that your particular brand of wrongness not go completely unchallenged." - PT

There are differing opinions on me. According to Iglew "DFA is PT with a sense of humor. PT is DFA with introspective self-doubt. I like them both" but according to sirbed Im "The Stats Killer"

by designatedforassignment on Nov 11, 2009 5:47 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

to be fair

Donaldson has a high ceiling. He’s posted some really weird numbers, but if his defense is average behind the plate, he has some pop in his bat.

Does he reach that ceiling (average defensively, solid pop)? Numbers would suggest otherwise, but his ceiling is quite solid for the position.

I’m also not sure he’s a high bust guy, provided he can stick behind the plate. The discipline alone should make him a decent backup, assuming he can stick behind the plate.

If he has to move, then then power becomes a bigger question as he’d have to move to a corner spot. He was a former 3rd baseman in college that went to catcher his junior year, I think.

by toonsterwu on Nov 14, 2009 4:08 AM EST up reply actions   0 recs

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