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Around SBN: Which Players Will Join The 3,000-Hit Club?

Davidoff: Mets Had Discussions About Pat Burrell

--The Mets held internal dicussions [sic] about acquiring former Met-killer Pat Burrell from Tampa Bay, which would love to unload Burrell. But they're not inclined to make such a deal, because of Burrell's weak defensive skills.

Newsday

If Omar Minaya is reading this, and boy do I hope he is, that assertion could not be further from the truth. Last year I advised him to acquire Edwin Jackson and for whatever reasons he ignored me. An All-Star appearance later I feel vindicated. I'm going to advise him again because he gets it but sometimes he just needs a reminder of this. Below is my letter to Mr. Omar Minaya:

Dear Omar,

Over the last two years, Burrell has a Fielding Percentage of 99.6%. That means for every 100 balls he attempts to catch, 99.6 of them are successfully trapped in his glove. Carl Crawford - who many crown as the best left fielder in baseball - has a Fld% of 98.6%. That's right; Burrell converts an extra out per season. Oh sure, Matt Holliday (98.9%) and Jason Bay (99.3%) are attractive and all, but come on Omar, you know baseball. You know math. You know that 99.6% is better than 99.3%. If Baseball gave test grades to General Managers, you would probably want the 99.3% because you are a very humble individual who likes to be viewed as a hard-worker, but not the teacher's pet. I can sympathize with that. But right now Omar, right now, you need, nay, you deserve the best.

Jay Z is a big fan of the Yankees and odds are he won't show up when you win your World Series, but one of his lines in particular reigns true: men lie, women lie, but numbers don't. You don't buy into all those ‘advanced' stats - UZR? +/-? PMR? The only P_R you know is Pabst Blue Ribbon from your teenage days, am I right? - created by all the basement nerds trying to create formulas to get clean skin and chicks, and I respect that. But even us baseball guys have to admit that those FLD% numbers are impressive.

Here's a few other numbers I found on some nerd's site. I don't even know where these guys get this stuff. Burrell's career at bats, home runs, and runs batted in versus the National League East teams:

ATL: 506, 22, 68

FLA: 537, 26, 95

NYM: 536, 42, 104

WAS: 498, 20, 94

Reread those numbers against the Mets. 42 home runs, 104 runs batted in. That's in games the Mets were involved in. If he's on the Mets, and they are playing, then he has shown he is better. Also, here's something I found interesting: those are the teams Pat has the most at bats against. All division rivals of yours. You know what that tells me Omar? It tells me he WANTS to be up in those high pressure situations in those divisional games that mean something.

Oh, and he has a World Series ring.

Do you want that?

Me too.

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No, he shouldn't have.

He had, what, 500 AB over 10 years versus the AL? That’s 50 per year. His true talent level changed on a day-by-day basis, what would stats in 1998 tell you about the 2004 version of Burrell? Or the 2008 version?

You can pick out 50 AB per year for any given player and make him look great/bad. It’s far too small of a sample size.

by R.J. Anderson on Nov 11, 2009 9:00 AM EST up reply actions  

I agree with you that the sample size is small, however

using those 500+AB and isolating them as we’re able to do (ABs as a DH) i think should have raised a red flag,and as it turns out it was telling

by sternfan1 on Nov 11, 2009 9:12 AM EST up reply actions  

I understand your point.

However, I still don’t think it tells you much. 95% of hitters perform worse as DH than playing the field. Same with pinch hitting. The only thing that really changed with Burrell was the lack of driving the ball.

by R.J. Anderson on Nov 11, 2009 9:16 AM EST up reply actions  

Et tu, RJ?

I can't wait until we trade him for a reliever.

by kericr on Nov 11, 2009 8:51 AM EST reply actions  

I'm fine with Burrell.

Although if there’s a GM we can rob, Minaya is one.

by R.J. Anderson on Nov 11, 2009 8:59 AM EST up reply actions  

I don't like

the Mets farm system much at all,to be honest.

Why do you kill threads????

by 4QB on Nov 11, 2009 9:05 AM EST up reply actions  

Neither do I.

There’s always three-way deals though.

by R.J. Anderson on Nov 11, 2009 9:09 AM EST up reply actions  

Eh, the biggest thing about shedding Burrell is mainly freeing up resources

I’m not concerned as much with the return so much as having the financial resources freed up.

Follow Me on Twitter @FreeZorilla

by FreeZorilla on Nov 11, 2009 9:52 AM EST up reply actions  

It'd be nice to have that 9M freed up even for trades

Creates lots of flexibility to maybe trade for someone who had options like V-Mart & Lee

by Transplanted on Nov 11, 2009 10:30 AM EST up reply actions  

He's in a contract year...

He wont show up with that tire wrapped around his waist this year, and I wouldnt be surprised if he has a big year.

by td32 on Nov 11, 2009 9:02 AM EST reply actions  

He's a professional, there is no way he is as bad as he was in 09

Chalk it up to injury, complacency, or laziness, Burrell had an awful year and the team suffered because of it. I don’t see that happening again.

I'm not really a NUMBERS guy!!

by Andy Hellicksonstine on Nov 11, 2009 10:50 AM EST up reply actions  

If he just hit LHP even at the rate he hit RHP this year

Big improvement there.
He hit only .202/.336/.252 with 6XBH 0HRs & only 12RBIs
RHP-.229/.306/.413 is at least above the Mendoza line.
  
He could hit better with Runners on too, 1 for 16 with BL is pretty poor, and the rest of the numbers aren’t much better.

by Transplanted on Nov 11, 2009 10:58 AM EST up reply actions  

Great observation

The weird thing is that his BAbip against Lefties was 0.286 while against righties it was 0.265, according to b-ref

Completely against the ordinary. It didn’t even seem like he had decent AB’s against a lefty. Maybe the neck thing, but that’s an awful line against his platoon-strong-side.

I'm not really a NUMBERS guy!!

by Andy Hellicksonstine on Nov 11, 2009 11:28 AM EST up reply actions  

Factor in that his SO rates were almost even

1 SO per 3.4 AB vs LHP
1 SO per 3.488 AB vs RHP

Although he walked more vs LHP 1 per 5.17 AB compared to 1 per 8 RHP

by Transplanted on Nov 11, 2009 12:43 PM EST up reply actions  

Hmmm
Cubs general manager Jim Hendry has rekindled talks with several clubs over the past 24 hours. Of these meetings Hendry’s had, he met with Tampa general manager Andrew Friedman and special assistant Gerry Hunsicker for more than an hour Monday night talking about the format of a Milton Bradley-for-Pat Burrell trade. There is a difference of $12 million in the two contracts, and Hendry and Friedman talked about the parameters of paring down the difference and the money.

EspnChicago

www.draysbay.com

by Tommy Rancel on Nov 11, 2009 9:12 AM EST reply actions  

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