In the Land of Pravda, Ben Zobrist is the Invisible Man Sitting Atop the Clouds
At least in this MLB.com article detailing some of the American League MVP candidates. With 99% of the other post-season awards, I care not in the least about who wins. That being said, 22 names are listed in this article. 22 candidates. None have the surname Zobrist. None. Of 22 American League players who are candidates for the "Most Valuable Player" award. Oversights happen, but this is a pretty huge one considering some of the other names. Here are all 22 listed in order of appearance:
Joe Mauer
Derek Jeter
Mark Teixeira
Miguel Cabrera
Kendry Morales
Ichiro Suzuki
Jason Bay
Dustin Pedroia
Kevin Youkilis
Robinson Cano
Michael Young
Nelson Cruz
Adam Lind
Aaron Hill
Evan Longoria
Jason Bartlett
Carl Crawford
Carlos Pena
Justin Morneau
Bobby Abreu
Torii Hunter
Zack Greinke
Michael Young, Jason Bay, Robinson Cano, and Torii Hunter are somehow more deserving of MVP candidacy than Zobrist? Nonsense. For one, Zobrist leads all American League players with at least 300 plate appearances in WAR. Now, catchers defense and baserunning isn't taken into account, so you can make the case that Mauer is better and I'm not going to cut off your fingers. Jeter had a great year (no, really) and so did Chone Figgins and Franklin Gutierrez although neither is to be seen on this list. Shin-Soo Choo? Marco Scutaro? Ian Kinsler? Nada. But Michael Young is present for some unknown reason.
The writer doesn't know what WAR is most likely. That's no crime. Hell, he probably has no idea about defensive value either. Fine. Zobrist ranks third in AL OPS. That would put him behind Mauer and Youkilis, and just ahead of Alex Rodriguez and Mark Teixeira. Zobrist hit 27 homers - more than Robinson Cano and as many as Youkilis - and drove in 91 runs - again, more than Torii Hunter and numerous others. I can go on, I won't.
The worst part is that this writer makes it seem like Jeter/Mauer is an actual debate. And yet any statistical comparison between Jeter and Zobrist favors the latter which should mean Zobrist/Mauer is the debate of value. Oh wait, he pulled the intangible card and, despite being unable to quantify this in any way, shape, or form, surmises that those intangibles somehow "scream value".
The mysticism associated with Jeter is incredible. He's a great player, but can people who use this argument get a grip and realize he does not have pointy ears, small boots, and he doesn't hide out in the forest making baked goods in between starring in short stories about faeries? Because that would be great. This argument is akin to me proclaiming vigorously that Ben Zobrist's strong Christian faith kept the Rays together after Akinori Iwamura suffered a traumatic injury. Is it true? Doubtful, but that doesn't seem to stop the official site of MLB from pushing arguments of equal weight.
Ben Zobrist was one of the two or three most valuable players in the American League during the year 2009. No one is taking this from him. This isn't an argument about likelihood of replication or true talent levels, it's about what happened. Value happened. Whether the collection of voters decree this or not is irrelevant since real will always recognize real.
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I totally agree with this
Ben Zobrist was one of the two or three most valuable players in the American League during the year 2009.
Gerald Wallace is the best player the Bobcats will have..... EVER
Not enough names
Why in the hell would somebody write a story about the MVP race — whatever that means — with 22 names? It’s not like the All-Star Game, where everyone gets a guy. (Although, apparently, the Rays get several names on the list — just not Zobrist, like Zorilla said).
the whole concept is asinine. Pick a couple guys who might win it, a couple who should be considered, and … jeez, 22 guys???!!!
by Carlos Pena's Friend on Nov 12, 2009 9:43 PM EST reply actions
Chone is as big, if not the biggest snub. Dude was crazy good this year.
A lot of those names are very deserving, names will always be left off, hopefully it makes all these guys want to work hard instead of getting complacent.
I'm not really a NUMBERS guy!!
by Andy Hellicksonstine on Nov 12, 2009 9:45 PM EST reply actions
Well said R.J.
Apparently it takes one full previous year of Web Gems and Sportscenter highlights for a writer to recognize the success of a player. Well, maybe next year.
Kinda OT: Anyone heard
when Andy friedman is going to put Deezy and Hellboy on the 40 man?
Why do you kill threads????
by Some other guy who does not care on Nov 12, 2009 10:14 PM EST reply actions
Adam J. Morris from LSB voted for Young
and I’m pretty(really) sure it was as a joke.
"I was going to say, 'You’re gay for Elvis.' But then I realized that I, too, am gay for Elvis." ~Adam J. Morris.
This wasn't the SBN ballots.
And AJM is pretty smart anyways.
by R.J. Anderson on Nov 13, 2009 12:16 PM EST up reply actions
Too bad for Zo
Being a relative unknown on a “small market” team robbed the public of his fantastic year.
Signature space available for rent - Got to pay the bills somehow
SBNation blogger voting left Zobrist off a lot of top ten ballots.
Greinke, too, but I guess that’s a different issue.
Beyond the Boxscore Not a member? Sign up.
The more I'm around various SBN Blogs the more I'm convinced each team needs two
One for the knee-jerk and casual fans to use as a sounding board, and another for reasoned analysis and discussion. There truly is nothing wrong with the first group, but the two sides mix like oil and water. Not taking the time to learn anaysis does not disqualify you or make you less of fan. It does make you a lesser evaluator of talent. And that can be a bitter pill to swallow for some.
Follow Me on Twitter @FreeZorilla
Totally back the idea.
Or some way for users to set up subsets of one blog. Or at least have some co-writers for every blog to present multiple viewpoints.
Beyond the Boxscore Not a member? Sign up.
by Sky Kalkman on Nov 13, 2009 11:12 AM EST up reply actions
I don't thin you an put too muh sto in one year of defensive data...
So Figgins, Zobrist, and Guitierrez WAR is highly discounted. Zobrist should still warrant a mention no doubt, but due to measurement error and the like I have a hard time awarding the MVP to someone who gets 90% of their value with out the bat in their hands (F-Gut).
Fluke offensive years happen too.
It doesn’t stop anyone from putting stock in them, now does it?
by R.J. Anderson on Nov 13, 2009 12:17 PM EST up reply actions
Fluke offensive years aren't due to measurement error.
JD, I didn’t miss that point. I have said this a million times: There are 2 sources of error in any sample metric. One is the fact that a player may have actually played better or worse than he would in the long run for whatever reason or no reason at all. The example you give is correct. Let’s say there is a ball that few SS other than the best get to on a regular basis. Betancourt may have gotten to that ball once in one opportunity or even twice in 2 opportunities (or 2 out of 3 or whatever). In the long run, he may get to only 20% of them, but in one opportunity, he may have succeeded 100% of the time. That is sample error. That is a guy hitting 1 HR in his first game or 10 HR in his first 100 PA or whatever. Sample error due to the random nature of sample results around a population mean.
The second source of error is measurement error and that is a completely different animal. In sampling statistics it may not even occur. When we flip a coin X number of times, there is no measurement error. All we have is sampling error. In the case of defensive metrics we have large and numerous measurement error. For example, that one ball that Yuni got to that is only gotten to 20% of the time by the average fielder, may NOT have had the characteristics we thought it did. While all hard hit ground balls hit in area X up the middle may be fielded 20% of the time, there are obviously lots of different types of balls in that bucket, from an easy, high chopper (albeit hard hit, if that is our bucket) to a ground skinner. As well, some of those balls in that bucket are hit directly up the middle and some are hit a little to the SS or 2B side. In addition to that, sometimes the SS is playing in position A and sometimes in position B because of the batter, pitcher, base runners and outs. Lot and lots of potential measurement error. So that ball that Yuni fielded may have been an easy chopper a little towards the SS side, even though it went into the "hard hit ball up the middle" bucket which is only fielded 20% of the time on the average by all SS.
So, to summarize, we have two sources of error in fielding metrics: One, when a player actually performs good or bad, but better or worse than he would in the long run. Two, when according to the data, the fielder performed like "X" but he really performed like "Y" because the data is not precise.
When we see an above or below average number for a fielder, we regress that number because of both types of error (sample and measurement). So if Yuni is -15 plays after 28 games, it is more likely than not that he played worse than he would play in the long run (than his true talent level) AND it is more likely than not, that he didn’t actually play as bad as those numbers indicate, because of measurement error (e.g., some of those balls that he didn’t get to were actually harder than their "buckets" suggested and/or some of the balls that he did get to were not as hard as their buckets suggested).
From MGL in this post correcting Poz about similar mistakes.
Not all good defensive years are errors in measurement.
by R.J. Anderson on Nov 13, 2009 1:17 PM EST up reply actions
This is getting a bit off the point either way.
My point about Zobrist included factoids in support of him that ignored defense entirely. He should’ve been mentioned whether the writer focused on offense, defense, or both. That was the point.
by R.J. Anderson on Nov 13, 2009 1:23 PM EST up reply actions
That's what I said.
I was just bringing up an issue I have with awarding the MVP as a who has the highest WAR award.
Zobrist should still warrant a mention no doubt, but due to measurement error and the like I have a hard time awarding the MVP to someone who gets 90% of their value with out the bat in their hands (F-Gut).
So how do you define which are or aren't?
Willie Harris last year? That’s my point. I said I won’t put too much stock in the defensive numbers for who is the most valuable. Look at the differences b/w Dewan and UZR for instance. I wasn’t saying ignore it, but you have to regress it a bit. Doing that to F-Gut’s 30 RAA, and he shouldn’t be mentioned in the MVP balloting. I have a hard time believing Zobrist (in his first year at the position) put together one of the best years at 2B in the history of UZR.
Wouldn't that be subject to an entirely different type of error.
Interesting posts by MGL. I was having this discussion with someone the other day. Are we at a point where we can be as sure of defensive stats as we are offensive?

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