Tampa Bay Rays' Matt Joyce Looks Ready For Starring Role

by Tommy Rancel on Nov 13, 2009 6:00 AM EST

Thanks to baseball economics, Matt Joyce no longer figures to be left out of the right field equation. While some of us thought Joyce would have a chance to be the Rays right fielder in 2009, Gabe Gross and his ~$1 million salary proved to be an average alternative while saving the Rays a year of Joyce's service time . With Gross up for a raise in arbitration in the neighborhood of $2 million, it looks like the economic tables have turned.

If Joyce turns out to be the next Gabe Gross (average hitter + above average fielder) the Rays will have a decent platoon player on their hands. However, looking at some of his minor league numbers, there is reason to believe that Joyce will be quite the improvement.

In nearly 300 MLB plate appearances in 2008, Matt Joyce showed that his power is legit. We saw that briefly here as he blasted three home runs playing sporadically over 11 games for the Rays. Joyce continued to flash that power in Durham where he slugged .482 and carried an ISO of .209 in 493 plate appearances. The power numbers are nice, but there were other pleasant surprises from Joyce in 2009.

Joyce has gotten on-base at a decent clip, but only once did he have an OBP over .340 during the last three seasons. In 2009, his OBP jumped to .373 thanks to an improved batting eye. He has always been a 10% walk guy, but in 2009 his improved to 13.8%. While walking more, he cut down his K% from 31.0% (2008 AAA numbers) to 21.9% (2009 AAA numbers).

Initially, it seems that Joyce will be paired up in a platoon with Gabe Kapler. We all know Kapler crushes LHP and one of the question marks concerning Joyce was his ability to handle south paws. If his 2009 numbers are any indication, then Joyce will do just fine. Of course, these are minor league numbers, but Joyce hit .273/.345/.508 against lefties in nearly 150 plate appearances. Kapler is the safety net, but I'm sure the Rays will try and see if Joyce can replicate those numbers at the next level.

Defensively, we've heard good things about Joyce. He projects as an average fielder at worst and has the potential to be above average in the corner. Joyce played nearly as much center field as he did right in his brief stint with the Rays, but was a +11 right fielder in the minor leagues. For those not familiar with the minor league defensive metric Totalzone, it's pretty simple; 0 is average, +10 is well above average. If Joyce can be a +5 in the Majors, I think we'll be happy.

The plan hasn't moved as quickly as some of us had hoped, but Joyce won't have that "getting used to playing in the majors" hurdle that most young players face. Sure, he is projected to be a platoon player at first, but if the numbers continue to pile up and he glows like a lightsaber then maybe a star will be born; clap for him.

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If Matt Joyce resembles 2nd half Gabe Gross, he's back at AAA

As one who advocated for him last season, i’m hoping he evolves into a 135-140 game starter in RF who can post OPS numbers in the 850 range

by sternfan1 on Nov 13, 2009 6:34 AM EST reply actions

I figured you missed this and would porbably like this.

I pro-rated the Rays right field #’s without Zobrist
s time in RF included:

Offensive Runs Above Average: -7.41
UZR: 20.93

Down from 9.5 wRAA w/ Zo, and 26.6 UZR

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by FreeZorilla on Nov 13, 2009 7:53 AM EST up reply actions

Yep--all the talk of the Gabe platoon being great was pretty lame

by sternfan1 on Nov 13, 2009 8:44 AM EST up reply actions

It was very good until July/August.

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by Tommy Rancel on Nov 13, 2009 8:58 AM EST via mobile up reply actions

Do you think Gross signs a MLB contract this off season?

by sternfan1 on Nov 13, 2009 9:00 AM EST up reply actions

Yep. Gross is much better than Mark Kotsay and Kotsay got 1.5 million

Offensively they are similar. Gross is younger and the superior defender.

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by Tommy Rancel on Nov 13, 2009 9:30 AM EST via mobile up reply actions

Yep

I ran a lazy 5-4-3 Marcels for 07-09 vs RHP (since we are solely considering a platoon role):

Gross
OBP.336
SLG: .404
OPS .740

Kotsay
OBP: 334
SLG: .396
OPS: .731

Defense makes it a no brainer between these two.

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by FreeZorilla on Nov 13, 2009 9:48 AM EST up reply actions

we'll see--let's not put Kenny Williams in the mensa state either

remember he of the Alex Rios contract

by sternfan1 on Nov 13, 2009 9:52 AM EST up reply actions

Gross is also younger and will have an extra year of arb next season.

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by Tommy Rancel on Nov 13, 2009 10:04 AM EST via mobile up reply actions

Staring at goats?

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by PlayOnWords on Nov 13, 2009 8:00 AM EST via mobile reply actions

Tried to slip one past the goalie

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by Tommy Rancel on Nov 13, 2009 8:10 AM EST up reply actions

Any difference to the team if Joyce goes full time RF or platoons?

Would Kap be the 4th OFer in that case? If so, I guess it doesnt alter the roster at all.

Signature space available for rent - Got to pay the bills somehow

by Buc Wild on Nov 13, 2009 8:21 AM EST reply actions

Assuming CC is back to star the year, value is maximized platooning the two. Joyce will not hit LHP as well as Kap

THere is an argument to be made about stunting his potential development by having him face solely RHP.

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by FreeZorilla on Nov 13, 2009 8:27 AM EST up reply actions

i think it's smart to have one or two platoon positions

and i like how AF aquires multi position players, S-ROd, Aybar, Zo, Hinske…

by sternfan1 on Nov 13, 2009 8:46 AM EST up reply actions

Right,the downside of platoons is they take up roster spots

Having someone like Zo who can swing between two platoons with above average defense is a godsend. That value does not show up in WAR>

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by FreeZorilla on Nov 13, 2009 9:33 AM EST up reply actions

This is why a catcher platoon makes so much sense

You’re carrying 2 catchers regardless of the rest of your roster. Also, the talent pool is so shallow at the position. Since you’re going to carry a back up catcher, why not get one that complements the other and maybe get some more use out of the roster spot instead of one start a week. Doumit and his ability to stand in the outfield or spell 1B makes him more attractive than a regular catcher to me.

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by Tommy Rancel on Nov 13, 2009 9:44 AM EST via mobile up reply actions

Any estimate on Doumit's potential cost?

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by FreeZorilla on Nov 13, 2009 9:51 AM EST up reply actions

Hell-boy

by sternfan1 on Nov 13, 2009 9:52 AM EST up reply actions

Say It Ain't So

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by FreeZorilla on Nov 13, 2009 9:53 AM EST up reply actions

Doubt it's that high

Doumit is coming off a down season, is average at best defensively and has had injury problems. Ultimately, I think is contract is too much especially if Navi is sticking around, but I’d put Sonnanstine out there first and work out the details of the rest of the package. Definitely wouldn’t give up a top young arm for him.

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by Tommy Rancel on Nov 13, 2009 10:06 AM EST via mobile up reply actions

Would they take Cody instead?

by sternfan1 on Nov 13, 2009 11:00 AM EST up reply actions

Sonny is our catcher next season.....watch

Gerald Wallace is the best player the Bobcats will have..... EVER

by raysfan81 on Nov 13, 2009 3:33 PM EST up reply actions

He started working out!

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by FreeZorilla on Nov 13, 2009 4:01 PM EST up reply actions

to play catcher? really?

Gerald Wallace is the best player the Bobcats will have..... EVER

by raysfan81 on Nov 13, 2009 5:05 PM EST up reply actions

Ryan Doumit is officially available

This sounds like a good idea.

by raysfaninminnesota on Nov 13, 2009 9:29 AM EST reply actions

Son, No- it says

The Mariners and Rays could also benefit from adding a hitter like Doumit, but it’s not clear if either team has interest.

Why do you kill threads????

by 4QB on Nov 13, 2009 11:33 AM EST up reply actions

Where does Sean Rodriguez fit in to this?

If there is a platoon of Joyce and Kapler in RF, and Zobrist is the full-time 2B, where does Rodriguez fit into this. Is he simply the guy who fills in against left-handed pitchers on Zobrist’s days off? Given a healthy outfield, will Zobrist only play 2B? Prior to the Kapler resigning it seemed he’d play 2B against LHP and Zobrist would play RF. Does this mean we’re potentially stunting the development of two players by playing them in niche situations? I love complaining about positional flexibility and team depth.

by tbclays on Nov 13, 2009 10:46 AM EST reply actions

Sean would be a good fit in the role that Zobot started out at last year. The bigger question in my mind, is how is Sweet Willy gonna get to the dish?

I'm not really a NUMBERS guy!!

by Andy Hellicksonstine on Nov 13, 2009 10:51 AM EST up reply actions

catching

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by FreeZorilla on Nov 13, 2009 10:53 AM EST up reply actions

Why do you want Willy batting?

Assuming Burrell regresses, he’s not one of the 10 best hitters on this team.

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by Brickhaus on Nov 13, 2009 12:56 PM EST up reply actions

I mean 8

and obviously he’s not catching. But his bat isn’t better than anyone he’d be replacing. He’s a good backup plan if someone goes down, and we need to keep him around for when Pena’s gone after this year, but that’s about it.

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by Brickhaus on Nov 13, 2009 12:58 PM EST up reply actions

I still want him to get AB's

He works counts pretty well, switch hits, and has some pop.

I'm not really a NUMBERS guy!!

by Andy Hellicksonstine on Nov 13, 2009 1:00 PM EST up reply actions

He's a valuable switch-hitting pinch hitter for late in games should the OF platoon be breached

He could move to 2nd with Zo going to RF

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by FreeZorilla on Nov 13, 2009 1:08 PM EST up reply actions

Sure, that's fine

But he honestly shouldn’t be playing every day. Outside of one streak when Longoria was out in late 2008, he’s been a pretty mediocre hitter for his positions, and his defense is no great shakes either.

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"Baseball is played on the field, not on a calculator."

by Brickhaus on Nov 13, 2009 8:02 PM EST up reply actions

We need to see what happens with CC or BJ

There is an above average chance CC is gone by the trading deadline

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by FreeZorilla on Nov 13, 2009 10:52 AM EST up reply actions

Come July and BJ or CC gets moved

Don’t we project Jennings to be ready to fill either one of those roles? Its starting to look like we’ll have those crazy swing plane lineups on some days. Can’t it be April already so I don’t waste my time wondering what is going to happen next year?

by tbclays on Nov 13, 2009 11:27 AM EST up reply actions

I'm ready for next year

Gerald Wallace is the best player the Bobcats will have..... EVER

by raysfan81 on Nov 13, 2009 3:35 PM EST up reply actions

Are the Rays prepared to be locked into

a $3.55 million contract for Doumit in 2010 and $5.1 million in 2011?

by bobr on Nov 13, 2009 11:06 AM EST reply actions

That's where I don't see the fit

Unless of course they take Pat Burrell and Dan Wheeler.

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by Tommy Rancel on Nov 13, 2009 11:19 AM EST via mobile up reply actions

Even if they do,

the difference is about $4 million total over the two years (Well, $5 million considering the $1 million buyout cost for Wheeler.) That is significant, but whereas the savings would be meaningful in 2010 ($9 million), the Rays would actually be paying $4 million more in 2011. I am not sure whether they consider that a factor in their decision. Given that Doumit has a poor defensive reputation (is that true) and is coming off a down year offensively, is the risk of paying him $8.5 million over two years to replace Navarro, and almost certainly using a very inexpensive backup, worth the uncertain but potential benefit he could provide? Or even given his expected arbitration boost, is there a reasonable chance that Navarro could be the better contributor in 2010, defensively and even offensively?

Another way to consider the question. Is it more likely that Doumit returns to form than Burrell, and if both do, whose bat would be more valuable, even given that it is so much easier to find a worthwhile DH than a good offensive catcher? If neither does, but both repeat their 2009, which hurts more? Which problem could more easily be fixed during the season? (For example, Burrell continues to struggle, so Aybar, Sean Rodriguez, Joyce, Kapler et al take more of his ABs. Doumit continues to struggle so Riggans, Jaso or some other inexpensive catching alternative gets more playing time. Which do we prefer? Or further, Navarro remains and Zaun is re-signed, still a possibility. Now Navarro struggles so Zaun gets more time.)

by bobr on Nov 13, 2009 12:29 PM EST up reply actions

2nd time I've read this in five minutes...

and it annoyed me both times. We did not “save” a year of service time. We postponed it, since we got (virtually) zero value from Joyce this past year. And one of those “saved” years is likely to be for a Rays team that will not be as competitive as this one.

How ’bout we put our best lineup on the field in April and see what happens?

by nomoredevil on Nov 13, 2009 7:29 PM EST reply actions

Gross was part of our best team.

Through August he had exceeded offensive expectations. After that, he fell down a well for whatever reason.

The platoon was worth something like 4 WAR through that month. I don’t think Joyce touches that last year, but maybe he does.

by R.J. Anderson on Nov 13, 2009 9:06 PM EST up reply actions

not really criticizing gross

I’m a Gross fan, and the platoon was probably better than what Joyce would have brought this year. (Though Kapler was awful until June, and Gross pretty bad after mid-August.) My comment was more directed at the concept of “saving” service time being a good reason for keeping someone down on the farm. If a guy is ready and gives us the best team, don’t save him for some mythical someday. Play him now. In the immortal words of Herm Edwards: We play … to win … the game!

Anyway, I think I’m just in a crappy mood. My comment wasn’t so much directed at the Joyce situation this year as a mindset I’m worried the RFO is taking.

by nomoredevil on Nov 13, 2009 10:12 PM EST up reply actions

If they're looking to field above-average players over the next 10 years I am all for that.

I’d rather see a good-great team that has the chance to get lucky and go far every year for a decade than to be a team that pushes too far just for the now. I’ve really enjoyed being completely obsessed with baseball into September and beyond the last two years. It was miserable to stop giving a shit about the game that I love in early July, because my team was already all-but-mathematically eliminated from the playoffs.

I’m sure Braves fans were pretty psyched for the first 10 years of their run. They went from playing in a glorified barn to a, at the time, state of the art stadium. They went from awful attendance, in said barn, to great crowds year-in and year-out. They too had a savvy front office that was great at evaluating talent, and not afraid to trade said talent to fill a hole. The opposite case is the Marlins who have more rings over their 10-year stretch of “glory” than the whole of that Braves dynasty. I would still rather be a Braves fan.

The joy of watching the game is derived from having something to care about over a 6-month period. The emotional highs may be through the roof come playoff time, but they don’t make me forget the nightly roller coaster of the interim prior. This is a long way of me saying that I will take an above-average stop-gap at 1-2 positions if it means that I defer that enjoyment til tomorrow.

I'm not really a NUMBERS guy!!

by Andy Hellicksonstine on Nov 13, 2009 11:40 PM EST up reply actions

I would not worry about the Rays' front office mindset.

They have never given the slightest indication that they are unaware of the stage the team is at nor any unwillingness to act appropriately. I am confident the front office is perfectly aware that the Rays’ time to contend is now and over the next few years and that they will make decisions to maximize their opportunity to win it all while simultaneously extending their window for contending as far as possible. That is the reason for turning current talent into more depth and for extending the time for control of prospects.* It allows them to contend now and to replenish the talent supply so as to widen the window.

To support my contentions, review the deals they have made since 2006, or more aptly since 2008. When they saw the opportunity to win, the Rays expanded the budget to acquire players such as Bradford and Burrell. At the same time, they dealt Kazmir, not as many think because they had given up, but because realistically the Rays were unlikely to win in 2009 at that point and yet had a ready replacement (Davis) in the event the unlikely became more possible. And at the same time, by adding 3 prospects, one ready to join the major league roster, they strengthened their current and future position.

If as many suspect, Crawford is dealt, it is again so that the Rays may simultaneously contend with a replacement (Jennings) while adding talent so they may continue to contend in the foreseeable future. That has been the publicly stated mindset of the front office for the past 2 years, and nothing in their actions suggests otherwise.

*That is the reason for keeping Joyce in the minors. Aside from giving him more time to hone his skills and become a better all-around player (which Tommy indicates seems to have happened), the Gabe platoon had at least as good a chance to help the Rays win in 2009 as Joyce would have given them. The Rays were not avoiding putting the best possible team on the field simply to save money on Joyce. They were doing that while also preparing to put better teams on the field for the next 6 years.

by bobr on Nov 13, 2009 11:50 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs