Tampa Bay Rays VP Andrew Friedman Talks with DRaysBay
Erik mentioned last week that we are making a strong effort to bring you some more insight from in and around the world of baseball. Whether it's a columnist, player or executive, we hope to bring you more perspective about the Rays than just the DRaysBay staff. Of course, we'll continue with our up to the minute news and our analysis, but hope to bring you fresh views from other sources. This is one of those opportunities.
Recently, I had the privilege of picking the mind behind the Rays moves. In this interview, Rays VP of Baseball Operations, Andrew Friedman will chat about Carl Crawford's contract status, the status of his own contract as well as the perception of needing a veteran closer among other things. Instead of laying it all out for you, I'll just let Andrew take over from here...
Tommy Rancel: It's never publicized or talked about, but you do not have a contract with the Rays. What is the reason behind that?
Andrew Friedman: My situation here is fairly unique in the industry, but it has never been a source of concern for me. The relationship that I have with Stu and our ownership group is a very positive one, with open dialogue and rigorous thought and questioning. I value it and would expect it to be the case regardless of my contract status.
TR: Processes and results are two things we discuss heavily on the site. Good processes should lead to good results as bad processes are likely to lead to failure. We've heard numerous Rays use the terms process and
results this year. How big of a believer are you in the concept? And is it something that is taught throughout the organization?
AF: We are very focused on the process here. Of course it goes without saying that results are what matter in the end. But there is a lot of luck in this game and a lot of things beyond your control, both on the field and off. The more we concentrate on the things we can control, the better our results will be in the long run.
TR: Along with process/results, we often talk about regression to the mean. As the person in charge of making the moves, how much do you look at regression and things of that nature?
AF: Whenever a player's recent performance is very different from his established level, you have to consider the possibility that he will regress to where he was. Most of the time that is what happens. But often there are reasons to think that the new level of performance might continue, and we have to factor those in too.
TR: Without naming names, a few GMs are on record as saying they don't buy into defensive metrics or they still believe in fielding percentage. You, yourself, have said fielding percentage is the most overrated stat in the game. How is there still that kind of divide among peers with the amount of information that is not only public but held privately throughout an organization?
AF: Baseball is a tough game and there is no one path to success. Teams have won in many different ways, with different organizational philosophies. Evaluating defense is one of the more difficult things that we do and we know that the numbers cannot tell you everything. We try to have a sound process that makes sense and to stay open-minded to many sources of information.
TR: As one of the more sabermetric organizations in baseball, how do you feel about the publicly used stats like Defensive efficiency, UZR, Dewan's +/- and so on?
AF: This is a good time to be a baseball fan as there is a ton of data in the public sphere with a lot of validity. In a general sense, some of the publicly used methods are similar to what we do internally; of course, we also have trained eyes whose evaluations play an important role in our process.
TR: In addition to defensive metrics, PITCH F/X has revolutionized the way we analyze pitchers. With one of the pioneers of PITCH F/X, Josh Kalk, part of the organization, what are your thoughts on PITCH F/X?
AF: PITCH f/x can be a great source of information. The key is using it correctly, and in harmony with the other tools we have to evaluate players. With the amount of available information, the challenge often has less to do with finding more knowledge, and more to do with figuring out how to use it properly.
TR: There have been many stories written from mainstream media about the Rays "need" for a veteran closer and this being a major cause for concern. What are your thoughts about this and stated bullpen roles in general?
AF: An effective bullpen, especially at the end of the game, is a crucial part of almost every successful team, and it's a priority of ours this winter as it is every year. In our financial situation it is difficult to commit big dollars to an established veteran closer in his prime. But I think that if you look at recent history, the expensive veteran route has not always worked even for those clubs who could afford that luxury. Younger, less established relievers have been major cogs in winning teams, and great setup men and closers have come from many different places.
TR: Knowing how unpredictable and volatile bullpens are from year to year what is your take on long term contracts for relief pitchers?
AF: Whenever we enter into a long-term contract, there is risk. Our margin of error is very slim. When we make that sort of investment we need to feel comfortable both with the type of player and the type of person in whom we're investing. The volatility that you see in relief pitching is definitely a factor whenever we consider a long-term deal there.
TR: You've said that each draft is almost independent of the last. However with two extra picks next year because of the happenings this year, there is sort of a hangover. What lessons did you guys learn from this year's draft that will carry over into future drafts, if any?
AF:It was disappointing not to be able to sign our top two picks but we feel great about the talent we were able to bring into the organization (plus having the two extra picks in the 2010 draft). We took a calculated risk with our first two picks. With (Kenny) Diekroeger, we knew full well that there was a decent chance we would not be able to sign him, but that, at the very least, we would have the protection of same-slot compensation which is why taking him in the second round made more sense than the fourth.
We are really excited about the guys we did sign and think we still infused our system with a lot of talent.
TR: We couldn't help but notice the drafting of multiple players coming of various injuries in this draft. Was that a market inefficiency?
AF: It was not a deliberate focus of ours in this draft. That said, we have a lot of confidence in our medical team, both in terms of their involvement in the draft process and their ability to take care of our players once we sign them. The work that our scouts do is equally important in making sure we select players who are dedicated to getting and staying healthy.
TR: How big of a difference going from 1/1 overall to picking near the end of the round in just a year? Does your stance on going over slot money change because of the difference?
AF: Our focus is on selecting the best player whether we pick first or 30th. That said, sometimes players will set a price that's much higher than what we feel is appropriate for them, and that's something we have to factor in.
TR: For two straight deadlines the Rays have chosen not to make a move at the traditional trade deadline. However, the team has been active after during the waiver trading period. Is this another market inefficiency that teams are ignoring?
AF: I wouldn't characterize that as a market inefficiency. We are always considering any kind of move that can improve our club, and like every team, we've discussed many deals prior to the trade deadline that didn't ultimately happen. It's a matter of when in the year something lines up that makes sense. In the past two years, that has been in August.
TR: I know there is an organizational policy to not discuss on going contract negotiations, but it's no secret that Carl Crawford is coming up on the end of his contract. What are your plans going forward with CC?
AF: Carl has been a big part of our team for a very long time. It would be great to have him in left field for many more years and we're hopeful that something lines up there that makes sense for both us and CC.
TR: Are payroll restrictions as big of a factor as they seem to us on the outside looking in?
AF: The simple fact is that our market size, our stadium and our attendance don't generate the kind of revenue that our rivals have. We are as committed to winning as they are, but we have to operate differently because of that.
TR: There have been a few cases where a Rays player has gone outside the organization for additional help: Ben Zobrist training with Jaime Cevallos; Matt Garza and others visiting with Ken Ravizza; and more recently Scott Kazmir consulting with Rick Peterson. What is your feeling about a player going outside the organization for additional help?
AF:We'll be supportive of anything that helps our players. In many cases, when they have worked with outside help it has been with our blessing or even at our suggestion. In fact, to give just one example, Ken Ravizza worked with both our major and minor leaguers routinely throughout the 2009 season. As long as it squares with our beliefs on what's best for a player's future, we love to see our players so committed to getting better.
A tremendous hat tip goes out to Andrew Friedman (and his staff) for being so accessible as well as open and honest with us. I want to thank Andrew on behalf of the DRaysBay staff and community for granting the interview and giving us his candid, honest answers and opinions.
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42 comments
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Comments
A big applause to Tommy and DRB for
getting this interview. I love AF and am firmly behind his moves, but he speaks like a politician and reveals little “inside” indormation, as i suspected
by sternfan1 on Nov 16, 2009 7:05 AM EST reply actions 0 recs
your right
he didn’t really reveal anything mind-blowing
Gerald Wallace is the best player the Bobcats will have..... EVER
by raysfan81 on Nov 16, 2009 5:17 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Revealing inside information hurts the team
Its great that he took the time to do this for the site. It still makes for an interesting read, and it gives a better idea of some of the FO’s thought process, without spilling the company secrets.
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by FreeZorilla on Nov 16, 2009 7:20 AM EST reply actions 0 recs
Oh i agree but i doubt there's much that a regulat DRB reader doesn't know
I enjoyed the Neyer interview much more
by sternfan1 on Nov 16, 2009 7:24 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
If our regular content mimics what Friedman states in this interview
Then I’m going to take that as a compliment.
by R.J. Anderson on Nov 16, 2009 12:37 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
People tend to take my comments negatively
all i’m saying is that it’s high praise for any blog to be granted an interview with a team GM, but i learned nothing from it—nor did anyone else i’d assume. I’m sure AF and DRB are on the same page, although i was glad to see he hinted that a pair of eyes is still needed to evaluate
by sternfan1 on Nov 16, 2009 12:49 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
The optimal goal is to acquire as much information as possible in making any decision.
Scouting is a big part of that as are the numbers, pitchfx, etc.., this front office combines those aspects in a reasonable manner and the results support that.
Arnold is a huge part of the scouting department and having read the interview, he shines some added light on this topic.
by R.J. Anderson on Nov 16, 2009 12:57 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Yep--that's why i noted the scouts
i think sometimes in here, our analysts are devoid of those scouts, and too saber based
Again, as i’ve told you many times, i’m a fan of saber and think it has a huge spot in predicting, but a good scout is invaluable
by sternfan1 on Nov 16, 2009 1:00 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
If I could add Ben Badler or Kiley McDaniel to staff I would've done it three years ago.
The economics of this site prevent us from acquiring a good scouting eye because 95% of those guys are either writing on BA or working for a team. We have scout friends (that sounds so lame) and I’d like to think we’ve picked up some techniques from them for the pro scouting aspect, but anything more than asking them questions is hard to do.
by R.J. Anderson on Nov 16, 2009 1:07 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
A large part of our posts are based off amateur scouting
None of us claim to be scouts, but there’s plenty of times where we’ll toss around things from writer to writer behind the scenes about stuff we see in games (batting stances, delivery, pitch selection, etc) and then go to the numbers to prove those theories right or wrong.
www.draysbay.com
by Tommy Rancel on Nov 16, 2009 1:07 PM EST via mobile up reply actions 0 recs
This is also true.
There are times where process scouting and general observation leads to something bigger by using numbers to support the claim. Stuff like Pena hitting the ball hard … but right at guys for instance. Or Navarro swinging at everything.
That’s qualitative observation, we just make it quantitative.
by R.J. Anderson on Nov 16, 2009 1:10 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
We also do this a lot for starting pitchers
One of us might notice a change in selection or break, then go to the pitch f/x and it either validates the observation or doesn’t. Or like RJ said, someone seems to be hitting the ball well, but not getting hits or taking more pitches and walking more.
I’d say a significant portion of our posts, even the heavy saber-slanted ones, are bred off something we saw and confirmed with data or RJ’s “scouting friends” (he’s so lame) also confirm.
www.draysbay.com
by Tommy Rancel on Nov 16, 2009 1:15 PM EST via mobile up reply actions 0 recs
of course he wasn't going to lay out the blueprint for us, but
He confirmed the belief is process/results, regression, sort of endorsed UZR and pitch F/x all things we use regularly here. It’s nice to know that the FO seems to value to same things we do.
www.draysbay.com
by Tommy Rancel on Nov 16, 2009 7:46 AM EST via mobile up reply actions 0 recs
That's interesting that he doesn't have a contract with the team. Didn't know that.
Signature space available for rent - Got to pay the bills somehow
by Buc Wild on Nov 16, 2009 8:26 AM EST reply actions 0 recs
Thanks a ton Mr. Friedman, great read Tommy
In that line of work you need to be good at talking out of both sides of your mouth on occasion as well as mixing in a good amount of subterfuge. I didn’t expect any ground-breaking information, but for our little site to get 15 minutes with him is something that would not have happened ten years ago or probably even five.
I'm not really a NUMBERS guy!!
by Andy Hellicksonstine on Nov 16, 2009 9:32 AM EST reply actions 0 recs
The Rays front office is very supportive of DRB and very accessible.
From Andrew to Chaim and in between. In fact, the Rays just named Matt Arnold as the director of Pro Scouting and we will have an interview up with him coming up this Friday.
www.draysbay.com
by Tommy Rancel on Nov 16, 2009 9:38 AM EST via mobile up reply actions 0 recs
Really look forward to that one.
Great job guys. Thanks Andrew.
by rglass44 on Nov 16, 2009 11:15 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
I definitely love the idea of you guys doing more interviews with people in the organization...
and even in other areas of the industry around the league. Really good stuff.
by fogelberg on Nov 16, 2009 3:07 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Thanks for these interviews Tommy.
And they tell us more than people might think.
Look for what is not said. (Nothing about LeVon Washington in the comment on the draft.)
Look at the examples he uses or the extension of his responses. (On what can be controlled, on dialogue in the organization and much more.)
Look at the thrust of his remarks, the values he stresses. (as Tommy mentions in his response to sternfan1.)
Get as sense of his comfort level in responding to specific questions, on the facility he has in handling progressive analytical types of comments.
I love reading what Friedman and Maddon say. There is always more to it than first meets the eye. In every interview I have ever heard or read with Maddon there is at least one nugget of insight (and often more) to ponder. Even at the BP events they had for two years at the Trop (what happened in 2009?), Friedman’s appearances were smooth and “political” yet yielded insight to anyone who listened carefully.
by bobr on Nov 16, 2009 9:54 AM EST reply actions 0 recs
Thanks Bob, your views are always spot on.
I also found his views on veteran relievers and long term contracts refreshing. He clearly understands the unpredictable aspect of constructing a pen. Younger arms, short term contracts for older guys seems to be the way he intends on going.
www.draysbay.com
by Tommy Rancel on Nov 16, 2009 10:02 AM EST via mobile up reply actions 0 recs
I found the lack of LeVon mention interesting.
I hate to say it was intentional and read too much into the absence of his name, but I mean, if he’s going to be that open about the potential of not signing Diekroeger, I think it hints things didn’t go as planned with LeVon.
by R.J. Anderson on Nov 16, 2009 12:16 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
That was the inflection I got.
Without saying it, he too was surprised we weren’t able to sign him. That said, I’m still disappointed with not signing him when his reported asking price as only .4 over slot and we reportedly won’t come off of slot.
Tools Whore
by Tyler on Nov 16, 2009 1:41 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
It was also dumb how apparently they broke off talks early
Now, I don’t know if that was just a ploy by Friedman(saying talks were dead around noon), but if talks were indeed dead why not spend some of the money that would’ve been spent on LeVon and bowl over Pierce Johnson or Dylan Floro with an offer? Hell, Floro said he wanted $450,000 and the Rays only offered $280,000. Once it was clear we weren’t signing LeVon, we couldn’t have thrown Floro an extra $170,000? And if Pierce Johnson was in the same situation, then we were aout $400,000 away from signing two high-ceiling pitchers(they each had injury problems senior year, but if they were healthy they’d have been in the top 3 rounds mix).
Vroom vroom party starter
www.raysprospects.com
by Imperialism32 on Nov 16, 2009 2:17 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Thanks, AF and TR.
Good stuff.
I expect RJ to divulge a little more detail when he becomes Rays Director of Bunting and Saves.
Mira Sorvino...Paul Walker...T-Pain...Fall 2010...HEADSTONE MAFIA, A LOVE STORY OF REVENGE. "5/5 stars!!!" - DRB User "Andy Hellicksonstine"
by PlayOnWords on Nov 16, 2009 9:59 AM EST reply actions 1 recs
Great interview and a BIG THANKS to Andrew Friedman
and thanks to Tommy as well for scoring the interview. Keep up the great work DRB.
by usfraysfan on Nov 16, 2009 10:32 AM EST reply actions 0 recs
Nice interview
Re: regression to the mean, AF said this:
But often there are reasons to think that the new level of performance might continue, and we have to factor those in too.
I was wondering if people here think that Zobrist will continue to swing a mighty stick like this season (though perhaps not MVP-caliber) or if he’ll play next season as an above-average but not great bat.
Aaron King is still my homeboy... iffy mechanics and all
McFAQ for all you newcomers out there.
GET THAT VORP AND WHIP SH!T OUTTA HERE!!!
by baetown415 on Nov 16, 2009 2:13 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
Latter.
More like he played from ~June onwards. High OBP, okay SLG, which is fine.
by R.J. Anderson on Nov 16, 2009 2:15 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Also, did anyone else read that as "Well, there's progression and improvement .. and then there's luck ..."?
by R.J. Anderson on Nov 16, 2009 2:17 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Silly RJ. There's no luck or random variance in baseball
www.draysbay.com
by Tommy Rancel on Nov 16, 2009 2:22 PM EST via mobile up reply actions 0 recs
Probably means he expects great things from Nevin Ashley
Follow Me on Twitter @FreeZorilla
by FreeZorilla on Nov 16, 2009 2:15 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
And Bartlett to turn into a pumpkin
www.draysbay.com
by Tommy Rancel on Nov 16, 2009 2:22 PM EST via mobile up reply actions 0 recs
I wonder how much enjoyment Friedman gets from reading the comments guessing at secret meaning in his words.
by R.J. Anderson on Nov 16, 2009 2:24 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
Tommy should've asked that
Way to drop the ball
/awaits ban
Aaron King is still my homeboy... iffy mechanics and all
McFAQ for all you newcomers out there.
GET THAT VORP AND WHIP SH!T OUTTA HERE!!!
by baetown415 on Nov 16, 2009 2:34 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
If you take the third letter from every answer, it spells our "J-O-E M-A-U-E-R"
We’re trading the farm for him.
by R.J. Anderson on Nov 16, 2009 2:43 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Except instead of the minor league system
Friedman’s going to give up an actual farm. Bill Smith will never see it coming!
Aaron King is still my homeboy... iffy mechanics and all
McFAQ for all you newcomers out there.
GET THAT VORP AND WHIP SH!T OUTTA HERE!!!
by baetown415 on Nov 16, 2009 4:29 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
And now Cevallos releases a presser that he's working with Ruggiano.
Good timing on that last answer.
by R.J. Anderson on Nov 16, 2009 6:17 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
Wow, incredible
Big props to Tommy and RJ. That’s a heck of an interview to land.
"I never threw an illegal pitch. The trouble is, once in a while I toss one that ain't never been seen by this generation." - Satchel Paige
by Steve Slowinski on Nov 16, 2009 7:05 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
Where did the rec button go?
I’ve been lurking for a little while since I had to get a real job, but now I want to rec this post and the button disappeared. WTF SBN?
by staplemaniac on Nov 17, 2009 11:41 AM EST reply actions 0 recs
Its the little star
thing- left next to word saying rec
Why do you kill threads????
by Some other guy who does not care on Nov 17, 2009 12:06 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

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