The Rays and The Rule 5 Draft
by Erik Hahmann on Nov 17, 2009 7:30 AM EST
253 comments
The front office will undoubtedly be faced with many tough decisions this winter. We've discussed many of them; Crawford, the catcher situation, whether or not to trade Bartlett, etc. One decision that won't be so tough is deciding which players to put on the 40 man roster, the deadline for which is Friday.
Currently the Rays have three open spots on their 40 man roster, with another one possible since Jeff Bennett is not likely to remain with the team. There's no question that two of the roster spots will go to Desmond Jennings and Jeremy Hellickson, two of the top prospects in the organization, and baseball in general. As RJ noted a couple of months ago, the third spot will probably go to Aneury Rodriguez, the young reliever the Rays received in the Jason Hammel trade. The remaining roster spot, assuming Jeff Bennett isn't still around, will likely remain open to leave room for any player the team selects in the Rule 5 draft.
The organization has done many things right over the last few seasons, but Rule 5 draft has been one they have yet to figure out, though in their defense not many teams do. Here is a list of the Rays Rule 5 draft picks since 2006:
2006: Ryan Goleski
Goleski was selected first overall by the Rays, but would not stick around long and was sent back to Cleveland. After a .249/.333/.429 season in 2008 he would be out of baseball at 26 years old. The 2006 draft was the one that saw Josh Hamilton be claimed by the Reds after being left unprotected by the Rays. Also, Joakim Soria was selected second overall. He's ended up doing pretty well for himself.
2007: Tim Lehay
Once again the Rays would have the first selection, this time taking Tim Lahey. The 6'4 inch right hander would be a quick out; The Rays sold him to the Twins for cash considerations. No other players of note were taken in 2007.
2008: Derek Rodriguez
Upon the success of the 2008 season the Rays were finally not awarded the first pick. Instead they selected 19th and chose reliever Derek Rodriguez from the White Sox. Rodriguez would struggle in the spring and would be sold back to the White Sox for $25k. In this draft the Rays would unexpectedly lose reliever Eduardo Morlan, who they had acquired along with Matt Garza and Jason Bartlett in the Delmon Young trade, to the Brewers. However, Morlan would not make the Brewers roster and was sold back to the Rays for $25k, offsetting the cost of the Rodriguez deal.
As you can see, the Rule 5 draft has not been a very fruitful endeavor for the Rays in recent seasons, but that's ok. Getting lucky enough to draft a Johan Santana or Joakim Soria is fine and dandy , but protecting immense talents like Jennings and Hellickson far out weighs any player the Rays may select.
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Assuming they protect Rodriguez, Hellisckson and Jennings
what decent MLB prospect will be left unprotected?
by sternfan1 on Nov 17, 2009 8:17 AM EST reply actions 0 recs
I believe RJ lists some in his post from September I linked to.
by Erik Hahmann on Nov 17, 2009 8:46 AM EST via mobile up reply actions 0 recs
Looking at the 40 man
SP(9): Price, Niemann, Garza, Shields, Davis, Sonny, Helly, Aneury, Talbot
RP(10): Balfour, Howell, McGee, Thayer, Wheeler, Ramirez, Cormier, Chavez, bennett, Springer
DH(2): Burrell, Aybar
OF(7): Craw, BJ, Joyce, Kapler, Perez, Jennings, Gross
IF(7):Bartlett, Brignac, Longo, Pena, S-Rod, Zobrist, ElliotJohnson
C(4): Navi, Jaso, Riggans, Lobaton</strong
If the Rays non-tender Gross and Navi prior to Friday, that woudl open up two more spots, no? I also bolded some names who seem expendable.
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by FreeZorilla on Nov 17, 2009 9:38 AM EST reply actions 0 recs
I omitted Ruggiano
Also do Shouse and Zaun still count on the 40 even though their options were declined?
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by FreeZorilla on Nov 17, 2009 9:40 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Shouldn't you be switching your name to FreeRuggiano right now?
by Suttree on Nov 17, 2009 9:59 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
I'm not sure he will even make the 40-man
Nevin first
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by FreeZorilla on Nov 17, 2009 10:01 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Rays have nearly a month to non tender
Gross, I’m sure they’ll try to trade him for anything. Highly unlikely they non-tender Navi unless something happens before the December deadline.
www.draysbay.com
by Tommy Rancel on Nov 17, 2009 10:15 AM EST via mobile up reply actions 0 recs
It seems unlikely they will find a trading partner
Wouldn’t be the first Houdini pulled by the FO though
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by FreeZorilla on Nov 17, 2009 10:20 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Gross to the Rockies
His thoughts on the Lord will go over well in that clubhouse, and he can function as Brad Hawpe’s personal defensive replacement.
I'm not really a NUMBERS guy!!
by Andy Hellicksonstine on Nov 17, 2009 10:21 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
But if you are the Rockies, why not wait for the non-tender?
Fear of a competitive market?
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by FreeZorilla on Nov 17, 2009 10:22 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Wouldn't be the first time.
Look at Hermida, he was a dead duck sitting and most everyone knew it, but Boston didn’t want competition for his services.
by R.J. Anderson on Nov 17, 2009 10:23 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Touche
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by FreeZorilla on Nov 17, 2009 10:25 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Marlins didn't seem to get much in return
Something named Hunter Jones and a lower-level arm. Still, not a bad haul if Jones turns into a LOOGY.
by R.J. Anderson on Nov 17, 2009 10:28 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Hey, if anyone loves chasing a needle in the haystack....
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by FreeZorilla on Nov 17, 2009 10:28 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
They could wait, or they could give up a non-spect and the Rays will gladly take it to at least get a long-shot vs. nothing
I'm not really a NUMBERS guy!!
by Andy Hellicksonstine on Nov 17, 2009 10:26 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Its unlikely, but
If a team likes Gross and doesn’t want to chance him hitting the open market, I’m sure a low A arm or something could get him.
www.draysbay.com
by Tommy Rancel on Nov 17, 2009 10:23 AM EST via mobile up reply actions 0 recs
Of the names on RJ's list, Ashley is the only one I am compelled to stick on the 40.
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by FreeZorilla on Nov 17, 2009 9:44 AM EST reply actions 0 recs
Its time to give up on Jaso
I;m convined if the FO believed in his catching ability he would have been given a chance last year. His bat doesn’t translate to a conversion. Free Nevin, the defensive catching god!
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by FreeZorilla on Nov 17, 2009 10:09 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
I hear Strasburg says he calls a really good game!!!!
by Suttree on Nov 17, 2009 10:15 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
I'm not impressed
I'm not really a NUMBERS guy!!
by Andy Hellicksonstine on Nov 17, 2009 10:21 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
You sir, are no Strasburg
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by FreeZorilla on Nov 17, 2009 10:23 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Dr. Andrews salivates watching film of Stras
Can’t wait to get in there and take a piece of his leg and put it into his elbow.
I'm not really a NUMBERS guy!!
by Andy Hellicksonstine on Nov 17, 2009 10:28 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Worth noting: Ashley was 24 last season, Jaso was 25.
by R.J. Anderson on Nov 17, 2009 10:27 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
I just don't see how Jaso will factor in
He seems to be our poor man’s version of Jeff Clement. Ashley could be hidden as a backup catcher to a very good catcher and provide solid defense.
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by FreeZorilla on Nov 17, 2009 10:30 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
For some reason I don't think many teams are going to jump on a guy with sub-.670 OPS the past two years in the mid-minors.
by R.J. Anderson on Nov 17, 2009 10:32 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
... but what if they find out about Cevallos?!
by Suttree on Nov 17, 2009 10:33 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Ashley and Cevallos worked out before 2008.
Ashley hasn’t done anything until this last month.
www.draysbay.com
by Tommy Rancel on Nov 17, 2009 10:44 AM EST via mobile up reply actions 0 recs
Ashley and Cevallos worked out before 2008.
Ashley hasn’t done anything until this last month.
www.draysbay.com
by Tommy Rancel on Nov 17, 2009 10:44 AM EST via mobile up reply actions 0 recs
Backup catchers are a lot like kickers
In that once you are initiated, you stick around longer than you should as a retread with different teams when there is younger talent out there with a tough ceiling to break through. Most backup catchers did not light up the minors.
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by FreeZorilla on Nov 17, 2009 10:43 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
2006 rule 5
Not that it matters much, but hamilton was actually selected by the Cubs and traded to the Reds
by sey hey on Nov 17, 2009 10:23 AM EST reply actions 0 recs
Cody Cipriano will be the next Joe DiMaggio
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by FreeZorilla on Jul 13, 2009 5:43 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
I'm not really a NUMBERS guy!!
by Andy Hellicksonstine on Nov 17, 2009 10:45 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Excellent
I think I’m in love with Niko
by Sandy Kazmir on Sept 17, 2009 7:45 AM PST
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by FreeZorilla on Nov 17, 2009 10:51 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
.
I changed my children’s names to Cody & Cipriano
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by FreeZorilla on Jul 13, 2009 5:43 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
I'm not really a NUMBERS guy!!
by Andy Hellicksonstine on Nov 17, 2009 10:53 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
He is clearly the next Dan Uggla at least.
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by Tommy Rancel on Nov 17, 2009 10:53 AM EST via mobile up reply actions 0 recs
Yea, I think SF1 thinks I wrote that one
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by FreeZorilla on Nov 17, 2009 10:54 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
You Are Only as Good as Your Word
Honestly, through no one’s fault, there’s been nothing interesting to report
by sternfan1 on Nov 12, 2009 8:08 AM PST on Rays Family Tree: The Dead Trade String of 2002
I’m done with the Cody stuff, and am ready for some hot stove moves
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by FreeZorilla on Nov 17, 2009 10:49 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Cody post was a no-brainer for this thread
by sternfan1 on Nov 17, 2009 10:54 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Cody was just hit with the franchise tag.
www.draysbay.com
by Tommy Rancel on Nov 17, 2009 10:57 AM EST via mobile up reply actions 0 recs
Honestly what gave you the impression I had a man crush on Cody?
Not sure I ever used hyperbole with him
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by FreeZorilla on Nov 17, 2009 10:59 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Refresher Course for SF1
Me: Minor League Profile: Cody Cipriano
TR: The Next Dan Uggla? Another Look At Cody Cipriano
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by FreeZorilla on Nov 17, 2009 11:02 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Ashley
DRB generally takes defense very seriously. However, there is no great public way to measure Catcher defense especially in the minors. If there is a FO that I would trust to develop a way to quanitfy catcher defense, it would be the Rays. THe fact that they named Ashley, the organizational defensive player, not just catcher, of the year, despite him playing the “unmeasurable” catcher position, carries a lot of weight with me. if the Rays have a quantifiable way to measure catching, and Ashley is to C what Gabe Gross is to defense, then he could be a MLB catcher. Remember, Navi and his .583 OPS were still good for just -.1 WAR b/c of the catcher position. If you added an elite defense measure to that OPS, it stacks out pretty well.
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by FreeZorilla on Nov 17, 2009 11:12 AM EST reply actions 0 recs
So Cody DiMaggio for catcher?
I'm not really a NUMBERS guy!!
by Andy Hellicksonstine on Nov 17, 2009 11:14 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
He's got a strong arm. Everything else about his game lacks.
Aren’t those awards voted on by the minor league coaches? If so, why read anything into them? Coaches have a horrible depth perception of defensive play and sometimes can’t see the other half the field.
by R.J. Anderson on Nov 17, 2009 11:17 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
That may be true, but doesn't the coach work with him (and his teammates on a day-to-day basis)?
I'm not really a NUMBERS guy!!
by Andy Hellicksonstine on Nov 17, 2009 11:24 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
He's having a great AFL, but has shown little offensively in the past few years
His defense would have to literally be game changing for him to get to the MLB level. Org awards are what they are. I think Justin Ruggiano had the best arm one year and his arm is merely average at the MLB level.
www.draysbay.com
by Tommy Rancel on Nov 17, 2009 11:26 AM EST via mobile up reply actions 0 recs
Who would everyone rather have as a back-up catcher:
Lobaton, Riggans, Ashley, Jaso, Navarro
It’s not exactly a who’s who of catching prospects. Each of them has a big question mark and little upside. In this context I’d love to see what Ashley can do. It’s been stated many times that catchers can take years to develop due to having to learn how to call a game and the priority is to be good defensively. I don’t think we’ve seen the last of Nevin Ashley and I am highly encouraged by his performance in AFL. It could be the flip side of the coin where he has completely shit the bed and is showing nothing. If nothing else, it’s at least encouraging and a positive.
I'm not really a NUMBERS guy!!
by Andy Hellicksonstine on Nov 17, 2009 11:34 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Its positive, but I'm not handing him any MLB job over a month in Arizona
Prove it at AA or AAA and then we can talk. I highly doubt that our catching options are limited to internal candidates, but if they are I’ll go with Navarro and Riggans.
www.draysbay.com
by Tommy Rancel on Nov 17, 2009 11:40 AM EST via mobile up reply actions 0 recs
This is what a scouting report on Ashley would read like:
Strengths: Strong arm and shows mobility behind the plate. Big guy, probably should be hitting for more power than he does, walks a fair amount.
Weaknesses: Total pull hitter, has issues with contact and power.
He’s 24. He’s yet to hit above the low-levels. Lobaton has a strong defensive reputation too, and unlike Ashley, he actually hit in leagues with inferior pitching. He just turned 25 as well.
by R.J. Anderson on Nov 17, 2009 11:44 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Also worth noting is Nichols Law on Catcher Offense.
The worse the guy hits, the better his defensive reputation will be. I wonder how much of that comes into play with Ashely’s non-throwing game.
by R.J. Anderson on Nov 17, 2009 11:46 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
I know literally nothing about Lobaton
If he’s the guy then awesome, maybe we should talk about him more.
I'm not really a NUMBERS guy!!
by Andy Hellicksonstine on Nov 17, 2009 11:46 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
He was the Padres organizational defensive catcher of the year
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by FreeZorilla on Nov 17, 2009 11:53 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Lobaton is interesting, no doubt
He seemed like a gift of a waiver claim. Do you ever see Jason being a MLB contributor for this team?
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by FreeZorilla on Nov 17, 2009 11:52 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Oh no doubt, I didn't mean to imply he would be a back up this year, just eventually
It seems like people are saying that he’ll never be serviceable and it is that that I disagree with. My main beef is with the overall shit sandwich of the situation and trying to say that a peanut is better than a kernel of corn. None of them are very good. Frankly, I’ve seen quite enough of Riggans. I was at the game he got a heater to the heart and it was gross to hear. I applaud that he went out to LF after that since he was the last guy on the bench, but he has never been healthy, and when he has he has been what you’d expect out of a fringe backup catcher.
I'm not really a NUMBERS guy!!
by Andy Hellicksonstine on Nov 17, 2009 11:45 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
I would be shocked if Ashley gets more than a handful of major league plate appearances.
Craig Albernaz has shown that one hot stretch of games and a strong arm does not guarantee you a future spot in the majors.
by R.J. Anderson on Nov 17, 2009 11:51 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Sure eventually, but the whole argument started out on if he should be protected or not
Which would imply that a team would select him and him be good enough to stick and entire season as a team’s backup next year.
I hope he does develop and can solve our catching woes( or at least help) in a year or two down the road, but while I’m intrigued by his AFL stats and his defensive rep, he needs to show more at a level that actually counts before I go all in.
Luke Bailey on the other had has nothing else to prove. And I think is the best option to start right now!
www.draysbay.com
by Tommy Rancel on Nov 17, 2009 11:53 AM EST via mobile up reply actions 0 recs
A 40-man spot does not mean he has to be this season's backup.
All it takes is one FO to be enamored with his Fall, whether right or wrong. I guess the question would be who would you protect instead?
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by FreeZorilla on Nov 17, 2009 11:55 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
I'll take the cash, they can take Ashley.
by R.J. Anderson on Nov 17, 2009 11:57 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Very bitter
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by FreeZorilla on Nov 17, 2009 11:59 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Raymond James Anderson is all about the benjamins
I'm not really a NUMBERS guy!!
by Andy Hellicksonstine on Nov 17, 2009 12:00 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
He likes Luke Bailey
Why do you kill threads????
by Some other guy who does not care on Nov 17, 2009 12:04 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
So do I, he's just not a realistic option for at least 1.5 years at the most optimistic
I'm not really a NUMBERS guy!!
by Andy Hellicksonstine on Nov 17, 2009 12:06 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
And by 1.5 I mean more like 3
I'm not really a NUMBERS guy!!
by Andy Hellicksonstine on Nov 17, 2009 12:06 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
You fail at life. Luke Bailey was a major league ready catcher 20 years ago
And he wasn’t even born then
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by Tommy Rancel on Nov 17, 2009 12:07 PM EST via mobile up reply actions 0 recs
They legend of Luke will continue to grow
I'm not really a NUMBERS guy!!
by Andy Hellicksonstine on Nov 17, 2009 12:25 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
I just made this, feel free to worship at my idol.
I'm not really a NUMBERS guy!!
by Andy Hellicksonstine on Nov 17, 2009 12:30 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
So you're saying Luke Bailey feels up tourists?
I don’t get it.
by ChiBurbRaysFan on Nov 17, 2009 1:09 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Nobody, leave the spot open
No need to start burning options on a kid now when he’s still in AA next year and has virtually zero chance of being taken in Rule 5, and even less of a chance of sticking.
Bad Left Hook - The SB Nation boxing blog
"Baseball is played on the field, not on a calculator."
by Brickhaus on Nov 17, 2009 1:23 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
I didn't process the fact that was an option....eesh
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by FreeZorilla on Nov 17, 2009 2:16 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
He's succeeded at every level he has played at so far (Bailey)
In the context of 40-man worthiness, he would have to be lower on the pole than a lot of other guys, but with some of the flotsam that we still have hanging around we could easily make room for him. If Jeff Bennett sticks around only to get released a few weeks later I’m going to throw up.
I'm not really a NUMBERS guy!!
by Andy Hellicksonstine on Nov 17, 2009 11:56 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
if price is no matter (which isn't the case) and you take anyone but navi or jaso I'm compelled to ask why
by Navi's_Navy on Nov 17, 2009 9:57 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Make a case for Jaso
I'm not really a NUMBERS guy!!
by Andy Hellicksonstine on Nov 17, 2009 10:09 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Even with a disappointing season, Jaso was still a top offensive catcher in the Int' league
Which begs the question of defensive development. It seems he must improve for the Rays to have the confidence to use him. At what age do you throw the towel in for catcher defensive skills?
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by FreeZorilla on Nov 17, 2009 10:15 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
If Nevin Ashley is the answer to anything at the major-league level
then we’re asking the wrong question.
Vroom vroom party starter
www.raysprospects.com
by Imperialism32 on Nov 17, 2009 12:14 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
Ashleys weighted 2009
I took avg OPS of all teams in each league Ashley played in: A+ .684, AA .711, AFL .790. I came up with league factors based around the center which was AA.
AFL factor = .889
AA factor = 1
A+ factor = 1.038
I then weighted Ashley’s adjusted OPS in each league by the % of his total PA across all 3 leagues. His 2009 OPS is .728 which is above the league average of .711. Slightly above league average is acceptable for a catcher.
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by FreeZorilla on Nov 17, 2009 12:18 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
This puts perspective on his AFL #'s as opposed to discarding them by adjusting for sample size and league factor
If you remove the A+ (I would not), it is .756.
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by FreeZorilla on Nov 17, 2009 12:23 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
I still don't buy that one month in the AFL matters much, if at all
He was bad in the FSL last year, he repeated it this year and barely did better, and because the Rays play musical catchers in the minors, got sometime in AA where he was equally as bad. Plus he’s 25 at this point(and played most of the season at 24). And kind of a small sample size, but his CS% dropped to 37% at AA.
Vroom vroom party starter
www.raysprospects.com
by Imperialism32 on Nov 17, 2009 12:24 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
I don't pay much attention to catcher age
I'm not really a NUMBERS guy!!
by Andy Hellicksonstine on Nov 17, 2009 12:28 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Sure it does
Catcher or not, he was way old for the FSL and put up crappy numbers.
Vroom vroom party starter
www.raysprospects.com
by Imperialism32 on Nov 17, 2009 12:32 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
I'm referencing the AFL numbers.
by R.J. Anderson on Nov 17, 2009 12:33 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Ah.
Vroom vroom party starter
www.raysprospects.com
by Imperialism32 on Nov 17, 2009 12:33 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
So a 19 year old playing RF and a 19 year old learning to catch should be held to the same standard?
I'm not really a NUMBERS guy!!
by Andy Hellicksonstine on Nov 17, 2009 12:33 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
No. Positional adjustments exist for reasons like this.
by R.J. Anderson on Nov 17, 2009 12:35 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Or we could just compare across the position, instead of bringing everyone else in line
He had the 6th best wOBA of all catchers with at least 200 PA in the FSL. The guys with the best and second best wOBA are older than Ashley, 2 other guys are a year or less younger, Austin Romine is the only really young catcher to blow up. This is what I mean about catcher age.
I'm not really a NUMBERS guy!!
by Andy Hellicksonstine on Nov 17, 2009 12:41 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
LINK
http://www.fangraphs.com/minorleaders.aspx?pos=c&stats=bat&lg=10&qual=200&type=1&season=2009
I'm not really a NUMBERS guy!!
by Andy Hellicksonstine on Nov 17, 2009 12:41 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
With the exception of Romine, I don't believe any of those are worthwhile prospects.
by R.J. Anderson on Nov 17, 2009 12:45 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Mesoraco was a 1st rounder
He’s just below Ashley but has slightly better rate stats, a lower BABIP, and a better ISO
Vroom vroom party starter
www.raysprospects.com
by Imperialism32 on Nov 17, 2009 12:48 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
How many catchers can you name that were worthwhile prospects?
Mauer, Weiters, Posey, anybody else?
I'm not really a NUMBERS guy!!
by Andy Hellicksonstine on Nov 17, 2009 12:54 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Considering I just wrote the piece on this...
In this decade, more than 900 players have cracked Baseball America’s annual Top 100 Prospects lists; the true number shrinks considerably below 1,000 after accounting for a substantial number of return engagements. An analyst could spend hours dissecting this talented troop into every conceivable cross-section, but one anomaly that stands out immediately is how few catchers have made the grade. Just 68 appeared on the lists; middle infielders accounted for nearly twice that number, and corner infielders occupied almost three times as many slots (to say nothing of the outfielders).
While those who toiled under the tools of ignorance may have found early recognition elusive, they’ve made their mark on the game. This decade, the catching ranks have been blessed with perhaps the most valuable player on the planet in Joe Mauer, as well as the 2009 No. 1 prospect, Matt Wieters. It may not be the golden age of catchers, but any period that includes Mauer is in the discussion.
Eight backstops have garnered a top 25 ranking at least once this decade. Those include Mauer and Wieters, as well as Victor Martinez, Buster Posey, Jarrod Saltalamacchia, Jeff Mathis, J.R. House, and Eric Munson. With such a mixed bag of results, it’s worth investigating whether a closer examination of scouting information could have enabled us to separate the classics from the clunkers.
Good, Bad & Ugly
Mauer is the paragon of all catching prospects. Scouts raved about his quick bat, cannon arm, and raw athleticism before and after the Twins selected him No. 1 overall in the 2001 draft. The total package has matched or surpassed even the loftiest expectations, with three batting titles and Mauer earning BA’s 2009 Major League Player of the Year award.
Martinez’s throwing arm was regarded as his weak point throughout his years as a prospect. While he’s not known for his defensive play, his offense (career .837 OPS, 111 home runs) has made up for any shortcomings behind the plate, and playing the occasional game at first base or DH should lengthen his career.
Wieters and Posey are too early in their careers to qualify as categorical successes or failures, but both college-seasoned players remain on track for stardom. Both possess strong bats, arms, and athleticism as well as a history of versatility; Wieters closed games at Georgia Tech and Posey played all nine positions during one game at Florida State.
While similarly touted initially, Saltala-macchia has seen his star dim with issues both at and behind the plate. A plethora of strikeouts (246 in 789 big league at-bats) have plagued his offensive profile. Defensive wunderkind Mathis still gets a substantial amount of playing time over offensively superior Mike Napoli, but much like Saltlamacchia’s, Mathis’ bat has yet to reach its potential.
Mathis represents a subset of catchers that generally has a good track record. He came late to catching, as he wasn’t a full-time catcher at Marianna (Fla.) High. Russell Martin, a two-time Top 100 member, played third base at Chipola (Fla.) JC in Marianna and brought an infielder’s hands and actions to the catcher position. And like Mathis, Posey was a middle infielder, moving behind the plate in his sophomore year at Florida State.
Two of the most notable “busts” reached the majors, but House and Munson never lived up to billing. Neither was ever a regular as a catcher, and their bats proved insufficient to hold down a job at another position.
by R.J. Anderson on Nov 17, 2009 12:57 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Thanks for posting this, I haven't read any of your piece over there due to it not being free
This seems to agree with my prior comment
I'm not really a NUMBERS guy!!
by Andy Hellicksonstine on Nov 17, 2009 1:01 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Hurray!
No need to go to the bookstore now
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by FreeZorilla on Nov 17, 2009 1:12 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
angel salome, carlos santana, max ramirez, taylor teagarden, do you need me to keep going?
by Navi's_Navy on Nov 17, 2009 9:59 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Please do
I'm not really a NUMBERS guy!!
by Andy Hellicksonstine on Nov 17, 2009 10:09 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Offense isn't the question with Jaso
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by FreeZorilla on Nov 17, 2009 12:52 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
I've hardly seen Jaso catch
but given his bat, it would seem the Rays have no faith whatsoever in how his defense has progressed.
On the contrary, they have enough interest in Ashley to send him to the AFL despite the poor production at the plate the past two seasons. I know sending someone to the AFL does not mean they are top organizational prospects, but would they really send someone they have no interest in?
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by FreeZorilla on Nov 17, 2009 12:56 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
I think you're skewing the AFL sentence a bit too hard there.
by R.J. Anderson on Nov 17, 2009 12:59 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Didn't Chris Mason go last year?
by R.J. Anderson on Nov 17, 2009 1:01 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Matt Spring did
I think sending a catcher is almost a matter of courtesy since somebody needs to catch all the games.
Vroom vroom party starter
www.raysprospects.com
by Imperialism32 on Nov 17, 2009 1:05 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
He had a decent 2008 at AA
and Mason was definitely a prospect albeit one who had already started to plummet
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by FreeZorilla on Nov 17, 2009 2:03 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
They have to send 7 players to the AFL
The team probably needed a catcher, so they provided one. Going to the AFL isn’t necessarily an indication of organizational standing.
Bad Left Hook - The SB Nation boxing blog
"Baseball is played on the field, not on a calculator."
by Brickhaus on Nov 17, 2009 1:36 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Uh... is 6th amongst FSL catchers supposed to be good?
Vroom vroom party starter
www.raysprospects.com
by Imperialism32 on Nov 17, 2009 12:46 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
It's something to build on, I mean Gerald Laird started 120+ games this year
He’s a great defensive catcher, but a black hole with the stick. If Ashley has mastered the glove-side and is just now focusing on the bat, then I’d rather have that than a Jaso-type guy that will never be a legit catcher.
I'm not really a NUMBERS guy!!
by Andy Hellicksonstine on Nov 17, 2009 12:56 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
I'm prone to stick a no-hit guy there that calls a masterful game, an all-hit catcher going through a slump
is virtually worthless.
I'm not really a NUMBERS guy!!
by Andy Hellicksonstine on Nov 17, 2009 1:03 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Defense, throwing, and gamecalling slumps too.
by R.J. Anderson on Nov 17, 2009 1:03 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
I've never seen anyone quantify a defensive slump by a catcher, so I will view that statement as dubious at best
Sure there are bad games, but as you said Jeff Mathis still brings value and gets a ton of playing time.
I'm not really a NUMBERS guy!!
by Andy Hellicksonstine on Nov 17, 2009 1:05 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
I never said he brings value.
Mathis represents a subset of catchers that generally has a good track record. He came late to catching, as he wasn’t a full-time catcher at Marianna (Fla.) High. Russell Martin, a two-time Top 100 member, played third base at Chipola (Fla.) JC in Marianna and brought an infielder’s hands and actions to the catcher position. And like Mathis, Posey was a middle infielder, moving behind the plate in his sophomore year at Florida State.
If Napoli were sitting over Mathis on the Rays I’d probably throw a fit.
Further, the idea of quantifying gamecalling itself is nearly impossible at this point, at the same time everything we know goes through periods of upward and downward fluctuation. Whether it be power, contact, defense, or whatever else. Why would another such skill be immune to it?
by R.J. Anderson on Nov 17, 2009 1:09 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
My apologies, you did not,
but, the fact remains that he’s getting significant plate appearances on a team with a better offensive option.
It’s a sound theory, “if it happens here, it happens there,” but to what degree. It seems like the bat is the most prone to fluctuation, while defense goes through smaller fluctuations, I’m not saying that a catcher that allow 5% PB (hypothetically) allows exactly 1 in exactly every 20 chances, but I would think catcher defense is more sustainable than other positions, if only because they get so many more chances and their heads are always in the game.
I'm not really a NUMBERS guy!!
by Andy Hellicksonstine on Nov 17, 2009 1:14 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
You're attempting to place value where it could be entirely absent.
It’s the Assumption theory.
Because Player X has a job (or starts) over Player Y despite lackluster numbers, then he must bring something else to the table. This is how guys get labeled good clubhouse individuals. That and not being dicks to the media.
by R.J. Anderson on Nov 17, 2009 1:16 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
This implies that Mathis has no value, I don't agree with that
I don’t think he has value because he starts over Napoli. I think he has value, because he has both a comparative,, and an absolute advantage with the glove over Napoli. Much like Ashley has both a comparative, and an absolute advantage, with the glove over Jaso. Again, this is assuming that the people that rated him the best defensive player in our system (over guys like Jennings and Brignac) don’t have some ulterior motive.
I'm not really a NUMBERS guy!!
by Andy Hellicksonstine on Nov 17, 2009 1:24 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
I warn against placing too much value and emphasis on open-ended awards like that.
Ashley is probably a rosin bag junkie who coaches see a bit of themselves in because he lacks talent and talks with a declarative tone.
by R.J. Anderson on Nov 17, 2009 1:27 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
It's quite possible, though I think your version of reality has a lower
likelihood than mine. Coaches have promotions and future jobs on the line as well.
I'm not really a NUMBERS guy!!
by Andy Hellicksonstine on Nov 17, 2009 1:33 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
They voted Ruggiano as the strongest arm in the system.
I can’t prove he doesn’t have the strongest arm, but look at that quote in my BA piece, I think a catcher had him beat.
by R.J. Anderson on Nov 17, 2009 1:36 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Is it impossible?
Certainly for you or I it is. Teams have far more information available that would be crucial to evaluating this.
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by FreeZorilla on Nov 17, 2009 2:04 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
I'm taking Mike Piazza over Gerald Laird everyday.
www.draysbay.com
by Tommy Rancel on Nov 17, 2009 1:09 PM EST via mobile up reply actions 0 recs
Samesies.
In 2002 Piazza was worth 25 batting runs. Laird’s best offensive season since 2002 is 1.7. I’m guessing the difference between Piazza and Laird’s defense wouldn’t make up 23 runs.
by R.J. Anderson on Nov 17, 2009 1:11 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
It's a pretty lame comparison, no one is saying that Ashley is going to be one of the best
catchers of all time.
I'm not really a NUMBERS guy!!
by Andy Hellicksonstine on Nov 17, 2009 1:17 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Apparently his defense is top of the line since we're talking up a 25-year-old with a .644 AA OPS.
Assume he loses 10 points off his OPS with each promotion and he’s a .624 big league catcher, and around a .275 wOBA which is basically Shawn Riggans in the bigs, who you already called a fringe back-up. If you aren’t happy with Riggans, why would you be happy with Ashely? Because of one throwaway Strasburg comment and a strong arm?
by R.J. Anderson on Nov 17, 2009 1:24 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
The problem with Riggans is his ability (or lack thereof) to stay out of the ER
I’d be ecstatic with Riggs if he was a reliable option, and we wouldn’t even have had any of this conversation.
I'm not really a NUMBERS guy!!
by Andy Hellicksonstine on Nov 17, 2009 1:29 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
I'm sure we would.
Because Jose Lobaton is common-ground for both sides of this debate. He hits a little and supposedly plays solid D from what BAmerica put forth.
by R.J. Anderson on Nov 17, 2009 1:31 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
.377 wOBA at AA this year
I'm not really a NUMBERS guy!!
by Andy Hellicksonstine on Nov 17, 2009 1:33 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
I can't figure out why the Padres chose to cut him loose.
Oh well, not my issue.
by R.J. Anderson on Nov 17, 2009 1:35 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
No but you said you'd take a no stick catcher over an all offensive one
Laird is all D, Piazza is all O. Pick Posada if you want. I’m just saying an all offensive catcher who can swing a really good stick is probably more valuable than an all D catcher. Of course this is all speculation because we can’t quanitify the difference.
www.draysbay.com
by Tommy Rancel on Nov 17, 2009 1:25 PM EST via mobile up reply actions 0 recs
Say Kenji Johjima versus Jorge Posada.
I’m guessing you take Jorge.
by R.J. Anderson on Nov 17, 2009 1:28 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
That's a more fair comp and I would guess the offensive gap is > than the defensive
So yes, Posada.
www.draysbay.com
by Tommy Rancel on Nov 17, 2009 1:36 PM EST via mobile up reply actions 0 recs
I did, and I would in the normal run of things, between 2 comparable guys
Jaso v. Ashley, give me Ashley
Laird v. Piazza, give me Piazza
Piazza is in another class than Laird, I should have been more clear that I meant I would make this decision based on players of similar caliber (both the size of their barrels and the strength of their game.)
I'm not really a NUMBERS guy!!
by Andy Hellicksonstine on Nov 17, 2009 1:32 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Olivo would give me so many things to write about.
by R.J. Anderson on Nov 17, 2009 1:45 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Someone will overpay, his offensive numbers, overall, look decent
but his processes are so awful and he was quite a bit lucky.
I'm not really a NUMBERS guy!!
by Andy Hellicksonstine on Nov 17, 2009 1:48 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
He averages more than .5 WP+PB/G.
That’s delightful.
by R.J. Anderson on Nov 17, 2009 1:54 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
He had at least one every game we played them,
Watching Olivo’s game is the perfect solution if you’re having a bad day.
I'm not really a NUMBERS guy!!
by Andy Hellicksonstine on Nov 17, 2009 2:00 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Michel Hernandez versus John Baker?
by R.J. Anderson on Nov 17, 2009 1:41 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
I'm a huge John Baker fan, that isn't fair
I'm not really a NUMBERS guy!!
by Andy Hellicksonstine on Nov 17, 2009 1:48 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Per Devil Fingers numbers Baker is closer to the bottom than Hernandez is to the top.
by R.J. Anderson on Nov 17, 2009 1:51 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
My Baker-love is irrational, I care not for yours, nor the illustrious
Matt Klaassen’s opinions. I’m about to get Baker-acted if we keep discussing this.
I'm not really a NUMBERS guy!!
by Andy Hellicksonstine on Nov 17, 2009 1:56 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
These are SF1's arguments against Gabe Gross and 2009 BP Upton
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by FreeZorilla on Nov 17, 2009 2:09 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
No they aren't.
We had an idea to the degree of how good they are/were defensively. You don’t. You’re going off a good CS%, a quote from Stras, and a team-given award.
There’s no runs value here. There’s no real proof. Two-thirds of your argument are highly subjective.
by R.J. Anderson on Nov 17, 2009 2:13 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Except we have the data that shows that BJ's defense is so good that he's better than an all offensive outfielder in most cases.
Until we have the same for catchers, the argument will continue to be a matter of opinion.
www.draysbay.com
by Tommy Rancel on Nov 17, 2009 2:14 PM EST via mobile up reply actions 0 recs
Fair enough
But again, UZR is proprietary. I’m just playing devil’s advocate. Just like football outsiders DVOA. I do buy that it is reliable. I also buy that pitchers and catchers subjective defensive assessments are much better than no information. Just like ERA and BA is better than no stat. We’d like to have better, but we don’t currently.
Follow Me on Twitter @FreeZorilla
by FreeZorilla on Nov 17, 2009 2:19 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
You just like his mustache
I'm not really a NUMBERS guy!!
by Andy Hellicksonstine on Nov 17, 2009 1:15 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Has Ashley mastered the glove-side?
26% CS in 2008, then 48% this year(but 37% at AA)
Vroom vroom party starter
www.raysprospects.com
by Imperialism32 on Nov 17, 2009 1:04 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
He has a good arm.
Frankly I don’t know where all the great gamecaller talk comes from.
by R.J. Anderson on Nov 17, 2009 1:06 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Strasburg brah
I'm not really a NUMBERS guy!!
by Andy Hellicksonstine on Nov 17, 2009 1:06 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Not sure, I'm looking for as much perspective as I can get
You’ll notice I’ve tried to qualify my statements on his defense to “if what we’re told is true”-type statements.
I'm not really a NUMBERS guy!!
by Andy Hellicksonstine on Nov 17, 2009 1:06 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Right
If all we can go by is what the organization’s feelings are, then thats the best measure we have. Its not a number we can measure.
Its not all that different from people who question UZR. Even though its a defined number, its a proprietary system. In the abscence of better information, I will accept Ashley is a good defensive catcher whereas Jaso is not.
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by FreeZorilla on Nov 17, 2009 2:13 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
The people who question UZR are doing so because it disagrees with their eyes or conventional wisdom.
I’ve never seen him catch. I don’t plan to. The people who have aren’t reporting that he’s great at anything but throwing out runners.
This is akin to me saying Navi is a great gamecaller because Shields or Niemann or whoever gave him credit after a good game. You wouldn’t stand for that if someone was arguing Navarro > Hernandez, now would you?
by R.J. Anderson on Nov 17, 2009 2:18 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
I don't put any stock in the Stras quote
That was meant as a joke, since clearly Stras’ debut was the real story.
I do put stock in pitcher’s level of comfort with catchers. What goes on with the strategy of gamecalling is something between coaches, pitchers, and catchers. With more data I would try to quantify batteries, as I did with Michel and Navi. Like the saying goes, trust but verify. Quantify what your eyes tell you. Unfortunately, we have no information readily available except for CS%. That doesn’t mean the unverified eye has no value vs no eyes.
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by FreeZorilla on Nov 17, 2009 2:25 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
But with Ashley we're both blind.
Unless you’ve seen him.
by R.J. Anderson on Nov 17, 2009 2:28 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Right
But the coaches who gave him the award were not. Again, that does not mean hes a great defensive player. Its the most compelling evidence available along with his CS%. I’m curious how many catchers have won this award for organizations across all positions.
Follow Me on Twitter @FreeZorilla
by FreeZorilla on Nov 17, 2009 2:31 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
But who's the competition?
Is his defense better than Desmond Jennings? Or was he just by far the best defensive catcher that they gave him the award based on that.
www.draysbay.com
by Tommy Rancel on Nov 17, 2009 2:41 PM EST via mobile up reply actions 0 recs
Perhaps Matt Arnold can shed some light on this
Get on the horn, man.
I'm not really a NUMBERS guy!!
by Andy Hellicksonstine on Nov 17, 2009 2:41 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Matt handles pro scouting. This would be more of a question for Chaim
So R.J. take it away.
www.draysbay.com
by Tommy Rancel on Nov 17, 2009 2:48 PM EST via mobile up reply actions 0 recs
He's out secretly quantifying catcher's defense in Ven.
Follow Me on Twitter @FreeZorilla
by FreeZorilla on Nov 17, 2009 2:52 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
I'd refer to the Ruggiano award once more.
Wouldn’t a catcher win the best arm on an annual basis if these awards were a true indication of talent?
by R.J. Anderson on Nov 17, 2009 2:42 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Back to the well
I'm not really a NUMBERS guy!!
by Andy Hellicksonstine on Nov 17, 2009 2:42 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Erik gets paid by the comment and he's been talking about how good his cats look.
I don’t want PETA on me, man.
by R.J. Anderson on Nov 17, 2009 2:44 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
I heard that he was looking for other people that wants to fight cats against him
Bad Newz Kittiez FTW
I'm not really a NUMBERS guy!!
by Andy Hellicksonstine on Nov 17, 2009 2:47 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Was the context best outfield arm?
Who else were past winnerS?
Follow Me on Twitter @FreeZorilla
by FreeZorilla on Nov 17, 2009 2:48 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
I would imagine Delmon got one, unless they don't give out awards for people that throw bats at other humans
I'm not really a NUMBERS guy!!
by Andy Hellicksonstine on Nov 17, 2009 2:49 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
For fun, here are the Rule 5 catchers taken this decade
Year Name Taken by EOS 25M?
2009 Lou Palmisano Baltimore No
2009 James Skelton Arizona No
2006 Jesus Flores Washington Yes
2006 Adam Donachie Philadelphia No
2006 Ryan Budde Philadelphia No
2002 Ronny Paulino Kansas City No
EOS 25M? means whether they ended the year on the new team’s 25-man roster. As you can see, it rarely happens, and when it did happen, it was because Flores was 21 and showed good offensive potential.
by R.J. Anderson on Nov 17, 2009 12:21 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
Where did you find this?
Follow Me on Twitter @FreeZorilla
by FreeZorilla on Nov 17, 2009 12:22 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Googling "Rule 5 draft results".
Then B-Reffing each player to see if they were on their new team.
by R.J. Anderson on Nov 17, 2009 12:23 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Googling "Rule 5 draft results".
Then B-Reffing each player to see if they were on their new team.
Vroom vroom party starter
www.raysprospects.com
by Imperialism32 on Nov 17, 2009 12:26 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Must be a slow news day when we're discussing Nevin Ashley for hours
www.draysbay.com
by Tommy Rancel on Nov 17, 2009 12:51 PM EST via mobile reply actions 0 recs
I just want to credit Erik's ability to cause debate with the most mundane of posts.
by R.J. Anderson on Nov 17, 2009 12:52 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Its really my only skill.
by Erik Hahmann on Nov 17, 2009 3:08 PM EST via mobile up reply actions 0 recs
RJ Strasburg crediting your ability is not evidence of a true skill.
Show me a metric or you’re a talentless bum with no future who hopefully can be traded for cash to a rival blog when left unprotected
Follow Me on Twitter @FreeZorilla
by FreeZorilla on Nov 17, 2009 3:16 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Figured I'd post this somewhere
nothing ground breaking but Sickels has an open Q&A on the AFL and I figured I would ask some Gorgen questions since he saw him play:
What type of role does he project to (if any) in a MLB bullpen, MR, CL, SU, or LR?
Sickels:I’d see him as a middle reliever.
Then I followed up to get a bit more clarity by asking high or low leverage-
Sickels- Hmmm…..well he’s got good enough stuff to be high leverage, but will the command be there? Still an open question.
the ghost of stokes, camp, lugo strikes TB-sept 2009
by CubFanRaysaddict on Nov 17, 2009 1:19 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
It's probably cause you thought Ashley was a girl
www.draysbay.com
by Tommy Rancel on Nov 17, 2009 1:38 PM EST via mobile up reply actions 0 recs
Nevin Ashley Madison
Bad Left Hook - The SB Nation boxing blog
"Baseball is played on the field, not on a calculator."
by Brickhaus on Nov 17, 2009 1:38 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
FWIW
wOBA & PA’s by level for Ashley, Laird, and Mathis
http://spreadsheets.google.com/ccc?key=0AhdYS83t3IB7dGIzNHh6U1FMMEtvcmZoanBTNzM2MHc&hl=en
I think he’ll start at AA next year with the plan to move him up in June. The rest is on him of whether he can pick it up a little bit.
I'm not really a NUMBERS guy!!
by Andy Hellicksonstine on Nov 17, 2009 1:51 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
Laird and Mathis reached the majors by the time they were 23.
So how old were they versus Ashley at those stops?
by R.J. Anderson on Nov 17, 2009 1:54 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
I have that sig for a reason, do your own math.
Mathis didn’t get more than a handful of PA’s until he was 24, Laird was 24, but spent his 25YO season on the farm, getting his first significant amount of PA’s at 26.
I'm not really a NUMBERS guy!!
by Andy Hellicksonstine on Nov 17, 2009 1:59 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
I'm pretty sad that Erik forgot to include Hector Luna, Steve Andrade, and Angel Garcia.
Not to mention Alec Zumwalt, Kevin McGlinchy, Chad Ogea, Chris Reitsma, and David Lamb.
by R.J. Anderson on Nov 17, 2009 1:56 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
How bored are we?
Debating whether a non-prospect will ever make it to the Majors.
I'm not really a NUMBERS guy!!
by Andy Hellicksonstine on Nov 17, 2009 2:21 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
Its been an enjoyable debate
Follow Me on Twitter @FreeZorilla
by FreeZorilla on Nov 17, 2009 2:26 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Intense enough, where other local blogs may have blindly removed us from the mast head.
Stick to the company line Hellicksonstine!
Follow Me on Twitter @FreeZorilla
by FreeZorilla on Nov 17, 2009 2:27 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
I don't know what you're talking about, but I have no ego.
I'm not really a NUMBERS guy!!
by Andy Hellicksonstine on Nov 17, 2009 2:28 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Your brother Lee would disagree
Follow Me on Twitter @FreeZorilla
by FreeZorilla on Nov 17, 2009 2:30 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Tis true
Yep, I am that Johnny on the spot with the name search
"Three or four plane crashes and we're in the playoffs" - John McKay
by LeeCaz on Nov 17, 2009 2:33 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
What are you?
Follow Me on Twitter @FreeZorilla
by FreeZorilla on Nov 17, 2009 2:35 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Starts with
Attention, ends with whore?
"Three or four plane crashes and we're in the playoffs" - John McKay
by LeeCaz on Nov 17, 2009 2:36 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
it's been a very good
dare I say reasoned argument. There is no right or wrong answer. Regardless of which side of the debate you’re on, Nevin Ashley’s 2010 season just became a lot more interesting to me than it was yesterday. Same with Ruggiano and Cevallos.
www.draysbay.com
by Tommy Rancel on Nov 17, 2009 2:52 PM EST via mobile up reply actions 0 recs
I now hope Ruggs is back, whereas I was entirely indifferent at lunch yesterday when I asked myself the daily "What is my take on Ruggs?"
Follow Me on Twitter @FreeZorilla
by FreeZorilla on Nov 17, 2009 2:54 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Bearded Ruggs can stay, that other guy, no way in hell
I want Durham to field an all-bearded team next year, Wade Davis can be the poster child.
I'm not really a NUMBERS guy!!
by Andy Hellicksonstine on Nov 17, 2009 2:57 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Maybe this works better
I'm not really a NUMBERS guy!!
by Andy Hellicksonstine on Nov 17, 2009 3:04 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Day off for Nevin in Arizona
Follow Me on Twitter @FreeZorilla
by FreeZorilla on Nov 17, 2009 2:28 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
even god needed a rest.
www.draysbay.com
by Tommy Rancel on Nov 17, 2009 2:38 PM EST via mobile up reply actions 0 recs
Tommy, thats an exaggeration
He’s merely a defensive god, baseball is not monotheistic
Follow Me on Twitter @FreeZorilla
by FreeZorilla on Nov 17, 2009 2:40 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Yep, Ashley's defensive abilities are all invisible and likely fake.
by R.J. Anderson on Nov 17, 2009 2:41 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
There's a shiny bronze idol that says Organizational Defensive Player of the Year that is quite visible from great distances
Follow Me on Twitter @FreeZorilla
by FreeZorilla on Nov 17, 2009 2:48 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
O'Malley drew another walk in his first PA
Now a 14-14 BB-K rate in ’Zona. Hopefully his on-base skills are legit and he at least shows a little power next year.
Vroom vroom party starter
www.raysprospects.com
by Imperialism32 on Nov 17, 2009 3:41 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
One day he'll pass Rickey Henderson as the greatest of all times
And it all started in Arizona.
www.draysbay.com
by Tommy Rancel on Nov 17, 2009 3:47 PM EST via mobile up reply actions 0 recs
I'm turning into a big believer
Not that I necessarily think he’ll be a star or even an everyday starter, but I think his athleticism will let him play three positions(though maybe an average defender at all three, I’m not sure exactly how good his arm is). But if he hits .280/.380/.350 with plus speed, that’s a pretty valuable bench guy.
Vroom vroom party starter
www.raysprospects.com
by Imperialism32 on Nov 17, 2009 3:50 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
That seems pretty optimistic, but yeah, he would be a helluva an asset if that came to pass
I'm not really a NUMBERS guy!!
by Andy Hellicksonstine on Nov 17, 2009 3:52 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
His slugging percentages have been stupidly low
But he was an all-state WR/KR in Washington in high school, so I think his athletic body will allow him to add strength and start hitting some doubles and triples. But he had 12 XBH in 103 games in 2009, which is absurdly low, and yet right in line with his career average.
And hey, he just doubled in his second plate appearance today.
Vroom vroom party starter
www.raysprospects.com
by Imperialism32 on Nov 17, 2009 3:55 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
That's a slg of 2.00000000 for that PA, I LOVE IT
I'm not really a NUMBERS guy!!
by Andy Hellicksonstine on Nov 17, 2009 3:55 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
.
Vroom vroom party starter
www.raysprospects.com
by Imperialism32 on Nov 17, 2009 3:58 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
ISO of 1.00000
Only in Arizona…
Follow Me on Twitter @FreeZorilla
by FreeZorilla on Nov 17, 2009 4:10 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Heres a list of all qualified MLBers with ISO's south of .90 in 09 with walk rates
Nyjer Morgan……. .081…..7.9%
Yadier Molina ……089…..9.4%
Russell Martin…….079….12.0%
Ryan Theriot…………085….7.8%
Jason Kendall……….064…..9.2%
David Eckstein………..074…..7.2%
Edgar Renteria………..078….7.8%
Emilio Bonafacio……….056….6.9%
Luis Castillo……………….043…..12.4%
Follow Me on Twitter @FreeZorilla
by FreeZorilla on Nov 17, 2009 4:21 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
With no power whatsoever, I can't see him maintaining that walk rate in the bigs
Follow Me on Twitter @FreeZorilla
by FreeZorilla on Nov 17, 2009 4:08 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
They said the same thing about Joey Gathright
oh wait….
Bad Left Hook - The SB Nation boxing blog
"Baseball is played on the field, not on a calculator."
by Brickhaus on Nov 17, 2009 5:53 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
The key will be avoiding Jason Tyner syndrome
Drew a lot of walks in the minors but major-league pitches realized they could just challenge him and lay it over the plate.
Vroom vroom party starter
www.raysprospects.com
by Imperialism32 on Nov 17, 2009 3:52 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Is this the OTT?
I can't wait until we trade him for a reliever.
by kericr on Nov 17, 2009 2:34 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
Talk about Nevin Ashley and Cody Cipriano making the HoF in 25 years or be banned
I'm not really a NUMBERS guy!!
by Andy Hellicksonstine on Nov 17, 2009 2:34 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
I don't even know how to spell their names :(
I can't wait until we trade him for a reliever.
by kericr on Nov 17, 2009 2:35 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Frankly, I think what this site needs is a good old-fashioned Edwin vs Sonny thread. Or maybe a thread about how sleepy Baldelli is at any given time.
I can't wait until we trade him for a reliever.
by kericr on Nov 17, 2009 2:37 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
So, I was watching
Mike and Mike (why, I have no idea) this morning and they had Jayson Stark on there talking about a reverse luxury tax for teams that spend under $70 million. He says that profit sharing alone is bringing in 80+ Million before they sell a single ticket. Any idea if the Rays share was that much last year?
"Three or four plane crashes and we're in the playoffs" - John McKay
by LeeCaz on Nov 17, 2009 2:38 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
Also
This blog readership is LAZY. if there was a FP called OTTOTD created for them, a few dozen commenters would have shown up and contributed 300+ comments. Instead its been a staff circle jerk all day.
Follow Me on Twitter @FreeZorilla
by FreeZorilla on Nov 17, 2009 3:19 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
They don't like it when momma and daddy fight.
by R.J. Anderson on Nov 17, 2009 3:27 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
What do you say to the woman with two black eyes?
Nothing, you already told her twice!!!!!!!
I'm not really a NUMBERS guy!!
by Andy Hellicksonstine on Nov 17, 2009 3:30 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
I think they don't like it when we talk about baseball
Follow Me on Twitter @FreeZorilla
by FreeZorilla on Nov 17, 2009 3:31 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
No Class and No Style
Follow Me on Twitter @FreeZorilla
by FreeZorilla on Nov 17, 2009 3:34 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Check and Mate
I'm not really a NUMBERS guy!!
by Andy Hellicksonstine on Nov 17, 2009 3:39 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
RGlass
Thank you for demystifying pivot tables, I’m like a God now.
I'm not really a NUMBERS guy!!
by Andy Hellicksonstine on Nov 17, 2009 3:53 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
Ego what?
Follow Me on Twitter @FreeZorilla
by FreeZorilla on Nov 17, 2009 4:09 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Let him feel good about something
Why you always putting people down?
by SRQman on Nov 17, 2009 4:10 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Fear of being labeled a clubhouse leader
Follow Me on Twitter @FreeZorilla
by FreeZorilla on Nov 17, 2009 4:23 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Like Tom Rathman, I've got no fear.
I'm not really a NUMBERS guy!!
by Andy Hellicksonstine on Nov 17, 2009 4:36 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Nothing better than updating numbers weekly from a 3rd-party database, only to find out a year and a half later
that those numbers are occasionally adjusted after the fact. Nightmare.
I'm not really a NUMBERS guy!!
by Andy Hellicksonstine on Nov 17, 2009 4:15 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Andy Since there is no OTTOTD read this and tell me what you think
by SRQman on Nov 17, 2009 4:17 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
Well written
I use AR, I’ve been rocking the TAR lately and love it
Fair points, all around
Stop comparing to COD4:MW
I just wanted to put those main points down while I was reading. Obviously, the guy is passionate. I do feel that they have dumbed it down a little for the casual fan, but since I’ve gone to Stinger secondary, I know longer worry about the must frustrating aspects (for me) of getting killed over and over by streakers. I think everyone needs to sit down and play and don’t expect what worked in the previous entry to work in this one. New tactics will be evolved, I’ve already started to find my niche and do well, for the most part.
As for the maps, there may be flaws, but that is the most easily remedied situation. Once a map pack comes out they will incorporate feedback and user maps to give a different feel. I like the quantity of maps, but do feel that some of them could use some opening up. Snipers are still available on the aforementioned derail and wastelands (hate the fuck out of this map), but quarry is a good sniper map, estate isn’t awful, and even Sub Base has some good snipe spots. Guy just needs to explore the maps a little more and find good snipe spots. I always find it funny when snipers bitch about campers. Yes, there is a fundamental difference between sitting in an alley vs. snipe & displace, but in the end you are staying on the fringes in order to get easy kills.
I'm not really a NUMBERS guy!!
by Andy Hellicksonstine on Nov 17, 2009 4:35 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
I agree with the maps. Some just don't work well.
The kill streaks don’t bother me as usually I can find cover. He is right about the AR being able to anything and how you can almost snipe with any weapon, hell my friend does it with an LMG. It’s was a fun read though.
by SRQman on Nov 17, 2009 4:43 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
I get a jersey with my season tix
Who should I get?
by SRQman on Nov 17, 2009 4:42 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
Does this link to a recent Baseball Analysts post
add anything to the discussion? Or is it way beyond such things at this point?
http://baseballanalysts.com/archives/2009/11/exploring_the_i.php
by bobr on Nov 17, 2009 4:46 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
Thanks Bob
Here is a comment from the author followed by my thoughts:
Jeremy…I think the estimate you’re asking is determined by what you value. For example, if you’re an owner and you think home runs is going to put people in the seats and you feel that’s the most lucrative direction, obviously that would drive up the value of an offensive catcher.
On the other hand, if you’re smart you’ll realize that winning is where the money is. In order to do that, you need defense first behind the dish. Anything offensive would be icing on the cake. (Can you see my bias?)
I don’t have the stats to prove it (impossible to get because so much of what I need to quantify is not quantifiable) but I don’t think it’s a stretch for anyone to agree that blocking a ball in the dirt with a man on third is similar to an RBI. Or that you’re ability to work with pitchers (which saves a run or two a game) is like hitting a homer.
Hope that answers your question.
Brent
Brent Mayne is a former catcher so this opinion will sit as well as KK’s commentary. Yet, there is considerable value in pitchers comfortability with their catcher. The only people who can attempt to put a subjective measure on this are the pitcher and the coaching staff. Sadly, sometimes we have limited resources from a far. Offense matters, probably more than the other credits, but sometimes subjective measures can mean nearly as much, especially coming from their dance partner.
Follow Me on Twitter @FreeZorilla
by FreeZorilla on Nov 17, 2009 4:57 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Keep in mind
Brent Mayne is a former catcher
who hit .263/.332/.348 for an OPS of .680 for his career, so maybe he has a little bias on offense vs. defense
Blank
by benfunke on Nov 17, 2009 7:11 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
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