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A Not-So Theoretical Theoretical

Given the current roster construction and ignoring salary, length of contract, etc., which player would you rather have in the Rays lineup:

Player A: 33-years-old, right-handed, last three years has averaged 145 games played and a .360 wOBA when weighed by plate appearances.

Player B: Turns 32 in April, switch-hitter, last three years has averaged 104 games played and weighted-by-plate appearance wOBA of .390.

The first question you (should) have is whether defensive value comes into play. In this scenario ti does not. The second should be "How many plate appearances does 145 and 104 games translate into?" Which I will provide in this space:

Player A three-year PA average:  573

Player B three-year PA average:  409

Now, which player creates more runs? The lesser performer with more consistent health or the wild card who offers more reward with his greater risk? Let's do some math.

Star-divide

Up first: Player A

We'll assume he posts a .360 wOBA through 573 plate appearances in a league with a .330 average. Let's figure out the amount of runs this produces.

.360-.330 = .030

.030/1.15 = .02609

.02609*573 = 14.9 runs

Okay, now Player B:

.390-.330 = .060

.060/1.15 = .05217

.05217*409 =21.3

14.9 - 21.3 = -6.4

If you assume these players play just like this - which isn't a given, but none of us know any better at this point - then Player B needs only 286 plate appearances to equal Player A's output through 573 plate appearances. How good of a bet is Player B to reach that total? Well, since 2002 he's reached the 300 plate appearances threshold in every season but one, which just so happened to be 2007. Seven out of eight seasons is nearly 90%. Let's say you can trade Player A for Player B straight-up ... well, why would another team do that? Because Player B has a reputation for wearing folks down through his attitude.  How many runs is that worth?  

There's no set answer for that. Everyone will have varying degrees as to whether chemistry affects individual performance and by what extent. The poll taken last night shows that most people (as of this writing) surmised the effect of a bad attitude on team performance was worth five or fewer runs during a full season. Look at the math above. Even if five runs is correct - and really that seems like too much in my eyes - Milton Bradley still looks like a better option than Pat Burrell when examined in a world without contracts or money.

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Aybar

Aybar’s career wOBA is .336 so the .330 be used as replacement level works out quite nicely.

by MetsRaysFan on Nov 23, 2009 12:13 PM EST up reply actions  

A small quibble

That would actually be league average of .330 not replacement level. Replacement level would be lower than league average, by definition.

I'm not really a NUMBERS guy!!

by Andy Hellicksonstine on Nov 23, 2009 12:24 PM EST up reply actions  

Attitude

I think the only way to ballpark attitude is through effort approximations. Most of this translates through the stats for which they are already measured. A player who doens’t bust for balls in the outfield will measure worse for it on UZR. Not running hard to 1st base shows up in Offensive metrics. If its solely a team chemistry evaluation, I don’t put much stock in attitude.

Follow Me on Twitter @FreeZorilla

by FreeZorilla on Nov 23, 2009 11:31 AM EST reply actions  

In your poll, I voted two handfuls

With the caveat, that those handfuls are largely already accounted for in WAR

Follow Me on Twitter @FreeZorilla

by FreeZorilla on Nov 23, 2009 12:30 PM EST up reply actions  

See, I didn't consider that.

I was assuming Bradley’s attitude towards his own performance is already included in his personal WAR. Therefore, I just wanted to know what level of effect people thought he had on the team performance as a whole.

by R.J. Anderson on Nov 23, 2009 12:32 PM EST up reply actions  

I change my vote then to the most minimal.

This is not exactly TO making his quarterbacks head cases. Baseball is such a sum of the individual parts sport.

Follow Me on Twitter @FreeZorilla

by FreeZorilla on Nov 23, 2009 12:34 PM EST up reply actions  

The poll was too ambigious.

Also I think including “more hands needed” had people voting it as a joke option rather than seriously believing it costs a team 10+ runs.

At least, I hope.

by R.J. Anderson on Nov 23, 2009 12:36 PM EST up reply actions  

eh

If someone’s uncomfortable in the workplace, they’re less likely to put in their all. People can talk about professionalism and whatnot, and there are some guys it wouldn’t affect at all, but with 25 guys, you need to take human psychology into account, at least a little.

Bad Left Hook - The SB Nation boxing blog
"Baseball is played on the field, not on a calculator."

by Brickhaus on Nov 23, 2009 12:38 PM EST up reply actions  

Sure, a little

If there is a team full of Bradleys, it could be far more cancerous, than one Bradley on a high character team with a players coach. Pinella-Bradley was more predictable. Pinella-Percival woudl have been a much bigger distraction.

Follow Me on Twitter @FreeZorilla

by FreeZorilla on Nov 23, 2009 12:43 PM EST up reply actions  

I think my biggest irritant to these kinds of issues is how overblown the negative value of a bad-attitude player really is.

You also have to take a look as to what kind of negativity he would bring. For example, most of Bradley’s baggage comes in the form of a short temper with people outside of the clubhouse; press, umpires, opponents and fans, and some level of immaturity when controlling his temper. Last year he had one game where he looked absolutely incompetent in the OF (that one where he threw a 2 out ball into the stands and cost the Cubs a run, then later on did a Ramirez flop), but when healthy, he was out there playing every day with maximum effort.

I guess what I’m saying is, yes the guy might be a clubhouse distraction, but this is not Derek Bell that we’re talking about. If the team can keep blinders on him and keep the ridiculously stupid fans we have here out of his ear, he should be fine. And even not, his antics are not clubhouse-cancer quality stuff.

I can't wait until we trade him for a reliever.

by kericr on Nov 23, 2009 4:21 PM EST up reply actions  

Cubs fan here.

Your comment has a number of incorrect statements, first, so let me correct them. Bradley’s outfield gaffe did not cost the Cubs a run (it was a sac fly, a run would have scored on the play anyway; the only thing it “cost” was another runner moving from 2nd to 3rd, who did not score). He played reasonably well in the outfield.

You’re also incorrect in saying that “most” of Bradley’s baggage is a short temper with people outside the clubhouse. Look at this statement from one of his Cubs teammates:

Cubs outfielder Reed Johnson had trouble understanding why Bradley was so unhappy.

“I came from Toronto and come here and just like fall in love with the city and fall in love with the organization,” Johnson said. “It’s just hard for me to believe that you can come to this city, come to this organization, and not enjoy your time here.”

Johnson didn’t think Bradley had any reason to feel isolated from the rest of the team, saying “I think for the most part that was his choice.”

Johnson’s statement was echoed by many of his teammates. Several Texas players were quoted, after Bradley left, that they were upset with his statement that he sat during some 2008 games he could have played to “pad his stats for free agency”. (Sorry, don’t have a link for that, but he did apparently say it.)

I am personally acquainted with a Cubs beat writer who told me Bradley is a “strange dude”. Apparently, virtually all of his Cubs teammates agreed, and here’s what Ryan Dempster said:

“At the end of the day, he was provided a great opportunity to be part of a really great organization with a lot of really good guys,” Dempster said. "It just didn’t seem to make him happy- anything. Hopefully this is a little bit of a wake-up call for him and he’ll realize how good of a gig you have. It probably became one of those things where you start saying things that you’re putting the blame on everybody else.

“Sometimes you’ve just got to look in the mirror and realize that maybe the biggest part of the problem is yourself and (not) wanting to be here and play every day, and (not) wanting to have some fun. It didn’t seem like he wanted to have some fun, even from spring training.

Personally, I hope you still want Bradley for the Rays, because the Burrell-for-Bradley deal seems as if it might be the most doable, even though Burrell is virtually useless to the Cubs (they’d likely have to flip him to an AL team where he could DH). But don’t kid yourselves about exactly who and what Milton Bradley is.

Al, visiting from Bleed Cubbie Blue

"You can observe a lot just by watching." ~ Yogi Berra

by Al Yellon on Nov 23, 2009 5:46 PM EST up reply actions  

Well said, sir.

It’s also significant to note Bradley’s reaction when Lou blew in his face (called him something like “poo-poo”) after a frustrated Bradley crushed the oft-targeted Cubs’ water cooler:

“I got a ton of respect for Lou,” Bradley said. “When he says something, I really take heed and listen to it, not just the tone or the exact words but the sentiment behind it. I really think he had a heartfelt talk with me in his office, and I think we are both better for it.”

…and…

“I don’t have the same set of rules as other people,” he said. “I’ve committed mistakes in my past, so I don’t get the leeway that other people might get. To a certain extent, I guess, that’s fair.”

[emphasis mine]

Yeah, only truly self-involved, self-absorbed players admit it’s fair to call them a piece of [poopy].

I’m sorry, but as a Cubs fan, I’m embarrassed how my town has handled Bradley. I really think we found the best ways to bring the worst out of him.

by BWoodrum on Nov 24, 2009 2:44 AM EST up reply actions  

What about the Maddon effect?

He turned this guy:

into this guy:

I'm not really a NUMBERS guy!!

by Andy Hellicksonstine on Nov 23, 2009 12:45 PM EST reply actions  

Maddon effect did not improve :)%

That is the clearest difference between these two pics.

I can't wait until we trade him for a reliever.

by kericr on Nov 23, 2009 4:02 PM EST up reply actions  

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