Billy Wagner's cost appeal

by raysfaninminnesota on Nov 25, 2009 10:01 AM EST Comment 12 comments

What would it take to make someone like Billy Wagner attractive enough to sign him if the Sox offer him arb? What if we could sign him for essentially what we signed Percy for? After the latest report, there is speculation he might lower his asking price to make himself more appealing. So my question is, is he, at this speculated price, appealing to you?

ESPN's Buster Olney: "Wagner made $10.5 million in 2009, but if he were to make himself very affordable (for example, two years for a total of $10 million), a team would look at the savings for someone who is capable of being an elite closer as being enough to offset the potential loss of the draft pick."

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Giving the Red Sox another first round pick is about the absolute last thing we need to do.

Wagner’s nice, he’s not that nice. Go sign with a horrible team please.

by R.J. Anderson on Nov 25, 2009 10:48 AM EST reply actions 0 recs

I don't think the Rays should ever spend

$5 million/year for a closer, and certainly not commit to two years at that price. And I certainly would not want them to give up a draft choice in addition. It is simply not that important a role for a team like the Rays.

The free agent market is one of the most frustrating elements of baseball to me. Every year fans clamor for their team to sign a big name. For years Rays fans screamed that the Rays should lay out $2-3 million and commit to 2, 3 and 4 year deals to get pitchers like Justin Speier, Linebrink, Riske and the like. All sorts of arguments become current, but in the end it is splurging on risky pitchers who are essentially fungible and too expensive in dollars and years.

Wagner has been a terrific reliever and may still be, but unless he comes in the $1-2 million range (ok, with a bit of push if you like), it is a bad investment for the Rays. And by the way, we saw a total of 16.2 innings of pitching from him last year, including the 1 inning over 2 games in the playoffs when he allowed 2 runs. It’s not as if he had a full year to show us he is recovered. After all, we saw 40 innings of Percival before signing him, and his stats looked similar although with fewer Ks and a much better walk %. And we signed him for less than a total $10 million. Do we want to repeat that gamble?

by bobr on Nov 25, 2009 11:03 AM EST reply actions 1 recs

as always wise words

but even if Wagner isn’t a good fit, the Rays either need to develop arms for bullpen or sign a few guys that can actually cut it. (taking fliers on Izzy and Nelson didn’t work last year either). To me, if the Rays sign someone like Calero and trade for a guy like Wuertz, then they actually have a deep enough bullpen to function as a bullpen-by-committee. But you need to have good enough depth. You don’t have to spend 5 mil a year on someone like Wagner, but you have to spend enough to get solid depth.

by raysfaninminnesota on Nov 25, 2009 11:40 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

I agree

I think a downfall last year was that we had so many guys that were dominant in only certain situations. That’s great when they are in that situation, but when they are out of that comfort zone (Wheeler with a fly ball hitter, LOOGY v. Righty, Balf against patience, Chadford against Lefties, etc…) the odds of success plummet. I would like to see at least one guy added that can get out both righties and lefties (Talbot?) at a good rate and another guy (if Balfour can’t be that guy anymore) that can dial up a K whenever he wants. Atlanta had great success with a closer-by-committee, of sorts, last year because they had two good-great relievers. Last year we had one and a bunch of guys that were average at best when they had to face anybody that didn’t fit their skill-set.

I'm a writer.

by Andy Hellicksonstine on Nov 25, 2009 11:49 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

It also doesn't help when your manager goes out of his way to use guys like Springer and Wheeler incorrectly.

by Suttree on Nov 25, 2009 1:19 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

I agree with this.

One trend I do not like is the proliferation of bullpen specialists. I much prefer to have pitchers who can pitch multiple innings effectively. That is why I like the idea of having former starters in the bullpen. I suppose my model is Ramiro Mendoza, so perhaps I am loitering on the edges of old fartdom, but it seems to me that having 12 man bullpens with designated roogies and loogies who may only be used for 1 or 2 outs and another 2 pitchers who can only pitch one inning is incredibly inefficient.

I understand the benefits of specialization in any enterprise, and I appreciate the value of matchups. But it seemed to me Maddon did a better job in 2008 when I thought he pushed his relievers to go longer than he did last year when he turned LaRussa on us.* The sample size for matchups is awfully thin in most cases anyway, although I think Maddon looks more at the pitching and batting styles than at the stats of 10 ABs.

*I haven’t checked the data to see if my impressions of his bullpen usage is correct so I say this very tentatively.

by bobr on Nov 25, 2009 4:44 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

This is from my annual piece on the Rays managers:

Year…..Manager…..RPA…..AG…..Pltn%…..MultIP…..BTB
2006…..Maddon…..444…..2.74…..56…..179…..79
2007…..Maddon…..483…..2.98…..55…..122…..113
2008…..Maddon…..448…..2.77…..51…..134…..112
2009…..Maddon…..510…..3.15…..56…..136…..141

Year, Manager: Self explanatory
RP APP: The amount of relief appearances throughout the season, RP APP/G is the per-game ratio.
Pltn%: The percentage of plate appearances in which the pitcher held the platoon advantage (i.e. faced the same hand).
MultIP: The amount of appearances in which the pitcher threw more than one inning in relief.
BTB: The amount of games in which a pitcher threw without any previous days rest.

by R.J. Anderson on Nov 25, 2009 5:31 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Fun fact: 2009 was the first year the Rays have ever had 500+ relief appearances in one season.

by R.J. Anderson on Nov 25, 2009 5:31 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Oops, changed the category names for easier post formatting.

RPA = RP APP
AG = RP APP/G

by R.J. Anderson on Nov 25, 2009 5:34 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

I love how Wagner pitched last season

but he is human and hes getting old. hes also injury prone, he would be better than Percy but I think hes a mistake.

I really want to sign one of Rafael Soriano(top choice), Mike Gonzalez, Kelvim Escobar and maybe Putz. One of those and JP at the end of games sound good. Then I want Kiko Calero on the cheap. Finally we should try to get Doumit. Maybe we can get Omar Minaya, to take PTB and Wheeler, one can hope.

Wont all happen but it gets me a team I love.

C Ryan Doumit
1B Carlos Pena
2B Ben Zobrist
SS Jason Bartlett
3B Evan Longoria
LF Carl Crawford
CF B.J Upton (Jennings waiting for a BJ injury or slump)
RF Matt Joyce/Gabe Kapler
DH Willy Aybar

Bench: Sean Rodriguez, Matt Joyce/Gabe Kapler, Reid Brignac, whoever we have as backup C

SP’s remain Shields, Garza, Price, Niemann, and Davis with Hellickson waiting for a injury or someone pitching like crap

I love what the pen would be

Rafael Soriano
J.P Howell
Grant Balfour
Kiko Calero
Andy Sonnanstine
R.J Swindle (plzzzzzzzzz I like him much more than Choate)
Lance Cormier

A few guys here who may suck but we have Chavez, Ramirez, Talbot, Thayer and maybe McGee who can fill in

Hopefully we can make some of these moves, this is a awesome, young team that without PTB and Wheeler wont be so expensive.

Oh and once again, please sign CC long term!

1. James Shields 2. Matt Garza 3. David Price 4. Jeff Niemann 5. Wade Davis Coming Soon: Jeremy Hellickson

by joeybw on Nov 25, 2009 5:50 PM EST reply actions 0 recs