Three Rules to Keep in Mind Regarding Relievers
1) No Type-A Relievers
These players will cost the Rays their first round pick as well as the financial terms necessary to hook the arm. That means Billy Wagner, Darren Oliver, Octavio Dotel, Jose Valverde, Mike Gonzalez, Rafael Soriano, LaTroy Hawkins, Rafael Betancourt, Kevin Gregg, and John Grabow are all no-goes. Yes, the Rays have two first round picks, however, the compensatory pick is more than a dozen picks away from the 2010 first round pick, meaning if the Rays want a Type-A player it will come at the cost of a mid-first rounder, not a late-first rounder.
Now, there is a potential exception. If the team of a select player chooses against tendering an offer of arbitration which waives the compensatory pick. That being stated, if the Rays were to sign a player before the arbitration acceptance deadline (which falls within the first week of December) then they would give up the first round pick no matter the other team's intentions.
Some of those relievers are good players, but giving up the sixteenth pick (technically; virtually the seventeenth pick) for 60 innings is worthless. That slot has produced some fantastic ballplayers. Over the last four years: Bobby Borchering, Brett Lawrie, Kevin Ahrens, and substance abuser Jeremy Jeffress. Some other notables: Chris Volstad, David Purcey, Nick Swisher, Jason Jennings, Kip Wells, Lance Berkman, and Shawn Green. A few true stinkers too, but for the most part some fine talent.
2) Injuries Are Sometimes a Necessary Evil
Especially with pitchers. If guys like Kiko Calero were 100% dependable then they would be outside of our price range. Thankfully they aren't in either case. This is where luck and medical staffs come in handy. If you sign three relievers with about 60% chances of pitching more than 45 innings, then the chances of all three doing such is 21% and the chances of none of them doing it is 6.4%.
J.J. Putz, for instance, has bone spurs, tendon fraying, and gingeritis which lead to downed velocity and ineffectiveness but could make for an interesting non-roster invitee. Same can be said about Chad Cordero who quickly disappeared after a few years as a rosterbation champion.
3) Trading Prospects for Relievers
Not a good idea under most circumstances. Trading Reid Brignac for a young catcher with a few years of control left and having a young relief arm thrown in as an equalizer is one thing, trading a young prospect for a reliever straight-up is generally not smart. For instance: I absolutely detested the Orioles/Dodgers mid-season swap from the Dodgers perspective. They gave up third baseman Joshua Bell for George Sherrill. The latter was fantastic for the Dodgers - providing 0.4 WAR during half a season - meanwhile the former posted a .397 wOBA in Double-A and possesses the nickname "Baby Kemp". You don't have to guess which side is probably winning that deal.
Summary
Of the top 15 relievers this year, only three were free agent signings and those three were Kiko Calero, Chan Ho Park, and Trevor Hoffman. Seven were dealt for, four were drafted (three as starters), and one via the Rule 5 draft. Relievers are often overvalued because of sentimental value - i.e. when a team loses in the late innings - but the truth is even the best closers are only worth two-to-three wins in any given year.
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113 comments
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Comments
Well done RJ--you took a subject as dry as toast and made it interesting and thought provoking
The media has glorified the closer to ‘rock star’ status—stupid
by sternfan1 on Nov 6, 2009 7:59 AM EST reply actions 0 recs
I'd like Dannys Baez on the cheap--he wants to stay in the ALE and probably close to his Miami home
by sternfan1 on Nov 6, 2009 8:19 AM EST reply actions 0 recs
exactly
i remember some ‘smart’ person talking about this a couple days ago
by raysfaninminnesota on Nov 6, 2009 8:48 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
For the right price Baez might work
The most interesting part, as mentioned in one of my previous posts, is the new ground ball Baez. He went to a split finger and saw his GB% shoot up past 60%. He still walks guys and his k’s have gone down, but again its all about $.
www.draysbay.com
by Tommy Rancel on Nov 6, 2009 8:56 AM EST via mobile up reply actions 0 recs
I find these pretty interesting:


He was a much, much better pitcher at Camden Yards. Also, let’s play spot the outlier:
I'm not really a NUMBERS guy!!
by Andy Hellicksonstine on Nov 6, 2009 9:28 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
The last line should go with this graph

I'm not really a NUMBERS guy!!
by Andy Hellicksonstine on Nov 6, 2009 9:29 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
LOL at Kevin Gregg as type A.
BUT SAVES!!!!11
I'm a Brett Favre honk so FUCK YOU!
by PriceMultiCyYoungs on Nov 6, 2009 8:21 AM EST reply actions 0 recs
the Rays will have the chance to get a type A guy
Even if Rockies decline his 5.4 mil, he could get that in arbitration…if they don’t resign him before free agency starts, they will decline arbitration. The Red Sox will not spend 7+ mil on a set up guy like Wagner, so he will be available. Other baseball experts have said more teams will decline arbitration than ever before this offseason, so we’ll have to see what happens.
That said, everyone talks about not trading Brignac for a reliever. I don’t think anyone is suggesting trading him for a Sherril-type reliever. And I understand anyone even trying to trade him for Padres Heath Bell.
But Soria? Seriously? You are not just trading for anyone but a top-3 closer. And not just that, but one that is under team control on the cheap for the next 4 seasons. That has huge value for a team on a budget. The only way you get a player of that talent for under control for that many seasons is typically if you draft him.
If Soria is available, he fills a need, fills it cheaply, then why not? Unless you are getting a top flight catcher for Briggy, then why not get an impact arm? Again, don’t trade him for just any reliever, but if you can get the best…i don’t see how you don’t do it.
by raysfaninminnesota on Nov 6, 2009 8:58 AM EST reply actions 0 recs
Too bad Dayton just scooped up Getz or he may have wanted Helliot. I don't think Brignac is enough. I don't think Bartlett is enough.
If we have to throw in a young pitcher, why not just put that young pitcher into the bullpen as an extra fireman. No doubt that Soria is elite, and that we’d have have to pay extra points because of the sweet contract, but it’ll come at a cost.
I'm not really a NUMBERS guy!!
by Andy Hellicksonstine on Nov 6, 2009 9:33 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
oh i agree
and who knows what the cost is. But I’m just saying that you can trade Briggy for a reliever, but only in the rare case that you find an elite one who is also on the cheap and under team control.
Another good trade suggested by someone on this site was with Oakland for C Kurt Suzuki and RP Michael Wuertz. That would also be a good trade.
by raysfaninminnesota on Nov 6, 2009 9:37 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
The thing is. K.C. values everything we write off as unvaluable.
ERA, wins, saves, RBI, and batting average. Soria has two of those nailed down. He’s a good pitcher, but his price is going to be higher than it should be.
by R.J. Anderson on Nov 6, 2009 1:55 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Soria is making $7M over the next two years.
That’s not quite “cost control” cheap. Factor in how the Royals screwed with him by letting him throw while he was hurt and I don’t care to touch that for the price they would charge. And this is the Royals, they absolutely will overvalue him, just as they did with Billy Butler last off-season.
by R.J. Anderson on Nov 6, 2009 1:46 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
for an All Star closer? Yes it is.
Take a look at how many closers make more, how many set up men make more, how many relievers have made more than that on our own team? (Wheeler, Bradford, Percival all made the same money or more per season).
Not cost control cheap? C’mon, man. He will make less in two years than many free agent closers will make in one. The only player who could be worth more to the Rays is if the A’s were willing to part with Andrew Bailey. Outside of that, Soria is a proven commodity for a cheap price. There is no relief pitcher who will offer more value (price tag to production) than him.
To not call that cheap is rather silly.
by raysfaninminnesota on Nov 6, 2009 3:33 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Not after this offseason
2nd year of arbitration…he’ll be looking at around 5 mil this season and only more expensive after that.
by raysfaninminnesota on Nov 6, 2009 3:44 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Broxton has also had three straight 2 WAR years while Soria's career high is 1.8.
by R.J. Anderson on Nov 6, 2009 3:46 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
and the Dodgers will be paying for it from here on.
Don’t forget he is playing on a much better team and has many more opportunities to put forth results. Put soria on that team and you’d get the same results. Outside of Bailey, you will not get a better bang for your buck for the next two seasons outside of Soria.
by raysfaninminnesota on Nov 6, 2009 3:48 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
That Soria will turn water into wine.
by R.J. Anderson on Nov 6, 2009 3:53 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
so he wouldn't put up more numbers if he pitched for a winning team? seriously?
Broxton is more dominant, sure. Soria won’t put up quite the exorbant K numbers. But Soria in a per inning average matches up pretty damn close.
by raysfaninminnesota on Nov 6, 2009 3:54 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Why would pitching on a better team improve Soria's strikeouts, walks, or home runs allowed ratios?
Ballpark/league is what you should be pointing towards.
by R.J. Anderson on Nov 6, 2009 3:56 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
actually the point in the first place was how Soria is a better value going forward in the next two years
Not who was better over last couple seasons. Outside of Andrew Bailey, there is no better value than Soria. Comparing him to Broxton wasn’t even the point.
by raysfaninminnesota on Nov 6, 2009 3:57 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
The things we know:
Soria is a top-end relief ace
He will not come cheap via trade
His contract is decent going forward
His contract makes him even less cheap going forward
He has had arm troubles in the past
Bartlett or Brignac alone will not be enough
Relievers are highly volatile
Does this about cover it?
I'm not really a NUMBERS guy!!
by Andy Hellicksonstine on Nov 6, 2009 4:02 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
He plays for a team that will overvalue him because of saves*
by R.J. Anderson on Nov 6, 2009 4:02 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
of course it matters what we have to pay
that does factor into our value of him. But if we are looking at guys to target, he has to be at the top of the list…and then he probably gets bumped down the list if the cost is too much.
by raysfaninminnesota on Nov 6, 2009 4:05 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
If it were Bartlett and a throw-in arm then sure, but Dayton draws a line
in the sand about as well as Chuck LaMar. They set their extreme price and there is no negotiation, you either pay through the nose or you get nothing and both teams come out the loser.
I'm not really a NUMBERS guy!!
by Andy Hellicksonstine on Nov 6, 2009 4:11 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
i agree
but something like a Brignac, Perez, Talbot/Sonny would be a decent penny to pay. If he demands to have a Moore/Barnese included then Soria won’t be coming to the Rays.
by raysfaninminnesota on Nov 6, 2009 4:13 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Right
I'm not really a NUMBERS guy!!
by Andy Hellicksonstine on Nov 6, 2009 4:16 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
not necessarily
it depends how people value Brignac.
by raysfaninminnesota on Nov 6, 2009 4:17 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
JJ Putz--i re-call reading a thread
where we were in the middle of that three way
sometimes Lady Luck is on your side
by sternfan1 on Nov 6, 2009 9:36 AM EST reply actions 0 recs
We were involved with the M's and Tigers.
M’s would’ve received Perez, Tigers Putz, and us Joyce. I believe Edwin was also going somewhere as well.
by R.J. Anderson on Nov 6, 2009 1:44 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Is Ben Sheets a Type A?
Mira Sorvino...Paul Walker...T-Pain...Fall 2010...HEADSTONE MAFIA, A LOVE STORY OF REVENGE. "5/5 stars!!!" - DRB User "Andy Hellicksonstine"
by PlayOnWords on Nov 6, 2009 9:51 AM EST reply actions 0 recs
How much could he possibly want?
Mira Sorvino...Paul Walker...T-Pain...Fall 2010...HEADSTONE MAFIA, A LOVE STORY OF REVENGE. "5/5 stars!!!" - DRB User "Andy Hellicksonstine"
by PlayOnWords on Nov 6, 2009 1:49 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
I don't know, but I'm guessing Texas or Seattle would give him a starting spot.
by R.J. Anderson on Nov 6, 2009 1:52 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Why wouldn't we? Is Jeff Niemann a lock now?
Mira Sorvino...Paul Walker...T-Pain...Fall 2010...HEADSTONE MAFIA, A LOVE STORY OF REVENGE. "5/5 stars!!!" - DRB User "Andy Hellicksonstine"
by PlayOnWords on Nov 6, 2009 1:58 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Unless the Rays think his health is too fickle to rely upon, or some team completely ignores the pending homer regression.
Outside of Longoria and Shields I don’t have the impression that many players are off limits to be moved.
by R.J. Anderson on Nov 6, 2009 2:00 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Sheets pitching in front of a defense that doesn't feature Braun, Weeks, and Fielder on the infield is a pretty sessy thought.
Mira Sorvino...Paul Walker...T-Pain...Fall 2010...HEADSTONE MAFIA, A LOVE STORY OF REVENGE. "5/5 stars!!!" - DRB User "Andy Hellicksonstine"
by PlayOnWords on Nov 6, 2009 2:02 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Harden is as frustrating as Jackson
Maybe Harden has talent but he has yet to show it over a full season. Not worth the price tag for a guy who hasn’t even given one full season’s worth of results.
by raysfaninminnesota on Nov 6, 2009 3:35 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Also: I hope nobody takes this as me saying "Let's not acquire someone with saves."
Bobby Jenks is very interesting, unfortunately he’s making a lot of money. He’s a good buy-low type though if his agent relies on ERA.
by R.J. Anderson on Nov 6, 2009 1:57 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
Trading prospects for relievers is generally a bad idea
But I mean, we have a strength(prospect depth) and a weakness(the bullpen). Obviously don’t trade the top guys like Jennings or even Brignac, but would I trade (for example) Nick Barnese? Sure.
Vroom vroom party starter
www.raysprospects.com
by Imperialism32 on Nov 6, 2009 2:30 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
Depends on who we're talking about.
by R.J. Anderson on Nov 6, 2009 2:36 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Rays should not trade Hellboy, Moore, Barnese
That’s the next wave of arms and shouldn’t be touched unless you are picking up a front of the line whatever. Injuries and busts can happen at any time. Those three guys represent the Rays long-term lifeline. Hellboy will be the first guy they go to if someone gets injured. Remember that Garza is entering arbitration and Shields is just starting to get more expensive (10:$2.5M, 11:$4.25M, 12:$7M club option ($2M buyout), 13:$9M club option ($1.5M buyout), 14:$12M club option ($1M buyout)
Moore and Barnese are worth more to this franchise than say Brignac…even Jennings. If the Rays are going to trade anyone in the offseason it’ll have to involve Briggy/Bartlett and any arm outside of those three.
by raysfaninminnesota on Nov 6, 2009 3:40 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Positional players are worth more than pitchers.
You are insane if you think Nick Barnese is worth more than Desmond Jennings.
by R.J. Anderson on Nov 6, 2009 3:44 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Jennings is better player by far
Jennings to me represents an All-Star if given enough time and experience. He is an impact player, don’t get me wrong. But for the Rays to succeed, players like Barnese carry as much if not more value. The Rays had a guy like Jennings (and still do) patrolling left field for the last 8 or so seasons. It wasn’t until the pitching was there that they even sniffed at the playoffs or a winning record. For the Rays to compete in AL East, pitching is what is needed more…even over a incredible talent like Jennings.
by raysfaninminnesota on Nov 6, 2009 3:47 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
The better a player is, the less he's worth.
You heard it here first. Revolutionary
by Graham on Nov 6, 2009 3:51 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
I don't even get it.
Jennings is safer and better. Yet the other guy is more valuable because the Rays didn’t have pitching (actually, they didn’t have defense, they had Jackson, Hammel, Howell, Niemann, and Talbot sitting around) in 2007.
Then the Crawford reference makes no sense. Kazmir was here on bad teams too, that means left-handed starters with great strikeout ratios aren’t valuable.
by R.J. Anderson on Nov 6, 2009 3:59 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
i'm not making my point real well, i think
all I’m saying is pitching depth is the bread and butter of the team. The Crawford reference doesn’t fit and shouldn’t have been included for obvious reasons you mentioned.
Trading that pitching depth should only be done if we are getting a impact player in return. Maybe I just have a wrong perspective of Barnese…I thought he had a high ceiling? Perhaps I’m overvaluing him?
by raysfaninminnesota on Nov 6, 2009 4:07 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
It's a correlation=causation problem
The team wasn’t bad because of Craw. If Barnese is the only 3 WAR player on his team in the future then that team will not be good either. Part of the fact that pitching is volatile does drive the price up. If you were to ask who has the higher probability of earning more WAR in their career, I think you could easily point to Deezy, provided his shoulder holds up, but if they have similar utility, while both remain healthy, then the pitcher has more value.
It is like in Victor Wang’s impressive research. The reason the top-end bats are so much more valuable is because of so many pitchers that fall out. It’s not that a top-end pitcher is worth less than a great bat, it’s because the floor is so much lower.
I'm not really a NUMBERS guy!!
by Andy Hellicksonstine on Nov 6, 2009 4:08 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
right and I'm not saying we should trade Jennings
and I already said the crawford thing was dumb. But because good pitching is so hard to find, you want to hang on to all you have because it costs too damn much to get elsewhere. What you are saying shows Jennings value, but in a way, it also shows Barnese’s value as well.
by raysfaninminnesota on Nov 6, 2009 4:10 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
I'm agreeing with you, I think people are quick to point to bats being more valuable than arms
because they are easier to project and the floor is usually higher. That said, there is a cost of diminishing returns in there, because the 7th good arm isn’t as valuable as the 6th and so on down the line. You need pitching, but you also need hitting and fielding. If you can take that extra arm and fill another hole then you do it.
I'm not really a NUMBERS guy!!
by Andy Hellicksonstine on Nov 6, 2009 4:15 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
If they have equal WAR value I'd still take the hitter.
by R.J. Anderson on Nov 6, 2009 4:14 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Why?
I'm not really a NUMBERS guy!!
by Andy Hellicksonstine on Nov 6, 2009 4:15 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Before we talk about attrition I want to see Deezy get 900 PA's in back to back years
I'm not really a NUMBERS guy!!
by Andy Hellicksonstine on Nov 6, 2009 4:17 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Compared to Nick Barnese who has yet to throw 75 or more innings in the minors.
by R.J. Anderson on Nov 6, 2009 4:18 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
My point was that Desmond Jennings isn't your proto-typical guy so far
All the talent in the world when he’s on the field, just have to make sure he stays there.
I'm not really a NUMBERS guy!!
by Andy Hellicksonstine on Nov 6, 2009 4:25 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
I know.
But Barnese is not a staple of consistency either.
by R.J. Anderson on Nov 6, 2009 4:27 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
I like how you chose 75 when he threw 74.2 this year, cheeky bastard
I'm not really a NUMBERS guy!!
by Andy Hellicksonstine on Nov 6, 2009 4:31 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
but that's how RJ spins every stat in his direction, right :)
by raysfaninminnesota on Nov 6, 2009 4:32 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
You're talking to a General, Sergeant
I'm not really a NUMBERS guy!!
by Andy Hellicksonstine on Nov 6, 2009 4:33 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
says the one who called him a cheeky bastard
by raysfaninminnesota on Nov 6, 2009 4:34 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Good pep talk, there's beer somewhere that need to be drank
BREAK
I'm not really a NUMBERS guy!!
by Andy Hellicksonstine on Nov 6, 2009 4:35 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
God I need a drink
i’m gonna start early…thanks for the reminder. Wake me when it’s Monday
by raysfaninminnesota on Nov 6, 2009 4:38 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Desmond had like 700 PA, no?
And that’s with missing most of an entire season.
by R.J. Anderson on Nov 6, 2009 4:33 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
I didn't look it up, the point stands, in both cases
I'm not really a NUMBERS guy!!
by Andy Hellicksonstine on Nov 6, 2009 4:34 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
I was pleased to see Matt Moore over 120 innings this season.
by R.J. Anderson on Nov 6, 2009 4:36 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
does Moore become a household name this season?
Here’s hoping we have Barnese continuing to come along, Matt Gorgen and Jake McGee ready for bullpen roles, and another #1 potential starter in Moore ready for stardom.
by raysfaninminnesota on Nov 6, 2009 4:41 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
hitters are better long-term investments because of lower injury risk
and not as likely to burn out. I agree…but that is even more reason why to hold on the pitching you have because it is such a hard commodity to get…especially in getting it to the big leagues and producing.
by raysfaninminnesota on Nov 6, 2009 4:16 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
See my comment about diminishing returns, you want pitching, but you also need hitting and fieldin
I'm not really a NUMBERS guy!!
by Andy Hellicksonstine on Nov 6, 2009 4:17 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
agreed
but great pitching can make up for a multitude of problems.
by raysfaninminnesota on Nov 6, 2009 4:19 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Greinke's team had a losing record in games he pitched, right?
/Crawford’d
by R.J. Anderson on Nov 6, 2009 4:19 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
for the record though
that’s why you want multiple in the system and not just one.
by raysfaninminnesota on Nov 6, 2009 4:21 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
I don't think that's true.
The reason you want plenty of arms in the system is because the risk of attrition is so much higher with pitchers than position players. Which, in turn, is why an individual pitching prospect like Barnese is pretty expendable, because the expected value from him individually is pretty low.
Especially since he’s a reliever.
by Tommy Bennett on Nov 6, 2009 4:24 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
I thought you were trying to make a funny
I'm not really a NUMBERS guy!!
by Andy Hellicksonstine on Nov 6, 2009 4:26 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Minor league baseball is deadly serious.
by Tommy Bennett on Nov 6, 2009 4:28 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Strasburg out of the Rising Stars game means he is finished
I hope everyone moves him down their lists
I'm not really a NUMBERS guy!!
by Andy Hellicksonstine on Nov 6, 2009 4:31 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
if you have the depth to do it then sure
and right now the Rays do. But only if you can get something great in return. Otherwise he has more value in case of injury or other pitchers don’t turn out.
by raysfaninminnesota on Nov 6, 2009 4:26 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
But he's just as likely to get injured or be ineffective as any other individual pitcher.
You have to discount his value by the attrition rate, which is very high. So the expected surplus from him is not that high.
by Tommy Bennett on Nov 6, 2009 4:29 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
the more you have
the more stocked you are for when attrition happens
by raysfaninminnesota on Nov 6, 2009 4:30 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Next wave?
Hellickson and Moore/Barnese were three levels apart. And right behind Barnese was the Colome/Lobstein/McEachern troika. The Rays have the pitching depth to afford losing one to a trade or an injury(like what happened with Jake McGee). I’m not saying trade all of them, but if we traded Barnese(for example) and another lesser prospect like Newmann for a shutdown reliever, what do we lose really? We still have Hellickson, Torres, Cobb, Moore, Colome, Lobstein, McEachern, etc
Vroom vroom party starter
www.raysprospects.com
by Imperialism32 on Nov 6, 2009 3:58 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
That's in addition to the five rotation guys
Shields Garza Davis Price Niemann plus Niemann
Vroom vroom party starter
www.raysprospects.com
by Imperialism32 on Nov 6, 2009 3:59 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
just remember that 2 starters in there may not be wearing Rays uniforms in 2-3 years
by raysfaninminnesota on Nov 6, 2009 4:08 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Sure
But there’s also the draft and other ways to replenish the minor-league depth. Seriously, losing Barnese would really not hurt us.
Vroom vroom party starter
www.raysprospects.com
by Imperialism32 on Nov 6, 2009 4:09 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
can we afford to trade him? Yes
but it better be for something that provides the team with another All-Star type player. If you are not getting that value for him, then there really is no point in trading him.
by raysfaninminnesota on Nov 6, 2009 4:11 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
So Soria for Barnese
Somebody get DM on the line.
I'm not really a NUMBERS guy!!
by Andy Hellicksonstine on Nov 6, 2009 4:15 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Yes there is
If he improves the team, it helps. I’m not saying let’s dangle Barnese and take the first trade get ripped off, but if it’s (say) Barnese for a pretty good, solid reliever, even if he doesn’t wow you it’s worth doing.
Vroom vroom party starter
www.raysprospects.com
by Imperialism32 on Nov 6, 2009 4:17 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
very few relievers fit that mold
that’s what makes someone like Soria so unique. You are not going to find many guys who are that good, that cheap and at least under team control for multiple seasons.
by raysfaninminnesota on Nov 6, 2009 4:20 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
That's why we'd need to slightly overpay
Vroom vroom party starter
www.raysprospects.com
by Imperialism32 on Nov 6, 2009 4:21 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
I guess it's based on how good people think Barnese is
Barnese and Brignac just seems like way to much to pay. One or the other sounds good…just not both.
by raysfaninminnesota on Nov 6, 2009 4:22 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
I wonder how I'll feel after the team is sold to someone who thinks closers are important.
by R.J. Anderson on Nov 6, 2009 4:24 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
bring back Roberto Hernandez!
by raysfaninminnesota on Nov 6, 2009 4:27 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
I like how LaMar tried doing something smart and it still failed.
by R.J. Anderson on Nov 6, 2009 4:28 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
and that's why he's "LaMar"
I’d rather have had lamar from Reading Rainbow.
by raysfaninminnesota on Nov 6, 2009 4:29 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
He had a disease
Lamar-itis.
www.draysbay.com
by Tommy Rancel on Nov 6, 2009 6:52 PM EST via mobile up reply actions 0 recs
A bit off the subject
Instead of swapping Barnese for bullpen help, could anyone see him being involved in a catcher trade. Any names that pop out for young catchers that might be available? Hanigan, Morales, Ramos, etc.?
by FLBoy84 on Nov 6, 2009 6:03 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
Perhaps days late here, but..
Issues with some of the discussion threads.
Rule 1 is colored by which are offered arb – no offer, no comp. And a number of the Type A’s won’t get offered. Then it becomes a question of cost, which rises w/o an arb offer. But I don’t see offers being made to Dotel, Valverde, Hawkins, or Gregg, and maybe not to Wagner, Betancourt, or Soriano.
Rule 2 applies to any small/mid market team hoping to contend – gotta take risk/reward chances.
Rule 3 – largely agree, but lower level prospects don’t carry guarantees, so moving a guy like Barnese for a key piece can make sense. But the lower level guys rarely carry the trade value being espoused here, unless for a guy a team needs to move for financial reasons. For example, the R-Sox just moved a guy for Hermida who arguably was one of the top starters in the NYP league, when Fla clearly wanted to move Hermida’s salary, along with a majors ready LRP.
And to be fair – Josh Bell might turn out to Josh Fields, or worse, Chad Hermanson. He doesn’t carry a guarantee either. Unless you can actually see the future, the analysis of that deal remains TBD, but the Dodgers were thinking in the present. They were going for the big prize, so sometimes such a deal makes sense, long term be damned. If all deals are done with only long term implications in mind, there might not be short term opportunities on which to capitalize.
To me the Rays face 2 development issues going forward. Obviously player / team development. But perhaps more importantly, market development. Since most fans don’t parse moves with the surgical precision we might prefer, always tossing off the iconic players of a franchise when the cost rises can impede fan identification with the club. Winning is the top driver of attendance, but recognizable players contribute. I’m not suggesting keeping expensive non-contributors, but player retention has some value. Few casual fans root for their GM more than their players, unlike some here.
Further, I wonder if CC’s trade value is as high as thought. I’m not saying he doesn’t have significant value, and he should be able to return very useful pieces for the puzzle,particularly C or 1B near ready prospects Sure, he’d make a fine replacement for Damon. But how many places does he fit? He doesn’t profile completely as a lead-off guy, and doesn’t seem to want to be that. He doesn’t have mid line up power. And he won’t be cheap. Great speed, great defense, and solid offense, but…
Rose colored glasses make the world look pretty, but fantasy remains merely that in trade dreams.
by nyyfaninlaaland on Nov 7, 2009 4:53 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
Threw the Damon replacement thing in there as a gentle provocation
Don’t think the Rays would consider such a thing, nor do I see a fit for the Rays.
by nyyfaninlaaland on Nov 7, 2009 4:59 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

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