What To Do With Andy Sonnanstine?
Nothing seems to come easily for Andy Sonnanstine. His fastball barely tops 87 and he's forced to get by on mixing pitches and superb control, which is not a way to earn the benefit of the doubt from fans or scouts. The fastball-throwing, strikeout machines are by far sexier and catch your eye easily, which is why players like Daniel Cabrera get chance after chance after chance, while players like Sonnanstine have to force their way onto the scene. I know the term has garnered a very negative connotation among the sabremetric community, but pitchers like Andy Sonnanstine and Brian Bannister are real "scrappy" pitchers...and I don't mean that as a bad thing in this case.
Sonnanstine slowly worked his way through the minors without ever heralding great acclaim, and he managed to crack a spot in the 2008 Rays' rotation as the 5th starter. He had a great year in 2008, posting a 3.91 FIP, and he entered the 2009 season with a spot in the Rays' tightly crammed rotation. However, despite the fact that he was given a spot to start the season, Sonnanstine had ample reasons to keep looking over his shoulder. He was the Rays' fourth starter, but with David Price and Wade Davis making their presences known in Triple-A and Jeff Niemann out of options and pitching well, he needed to pitch well to keep himself in the majors. Call it bad luck, crumbling under the pressure, hit-ability, whatever you want to - Sonny had a bad year.
|
K/9 |
BB/9 |
K/BB |
HR/9 |
BABIP |
LOB |
FIP |
tRA |
|
|
2008 |
5.77 |
1.72 |
3.35 |
0.98 |
0.280 |
66.3% |
3.91 |
4.00 |
|
2009 |
5.42 |
3.07 |
1.76 |
1.72 |
0.318 |
58.4% |
5.45 |
5.93 |
|
LD% |
GB% |
FB% |
HR/FB |
|
|
2008 |
17.0% |
42.1% |
40.9% |
8.0% |
|
2009 |
18.8% |
42.7% |
38.5% |
13.9% |
A finesse pitcher, Sonnanstine saw his BB/9 rate skyrocket this past year, going from 1.72 to 3.07. He was unlucky (13.9% FB/HR; 58.4% LOB; .336 BABIP), but he still was far from the pitcher that we saw in 2008. Now, with Jeff Niemann and David Price firmly entrenched in the rotation and Wade Davis poised to take over the 5th spot, we're left with the question: what to do with Sonny?
Going into 2010, there are four main options for the Rays: trade Sonny, put him in the rotation, leave him in the minors in case of an injury, or turn him into a reliever. In my opinion, the first two options are highly unlikely. Trading Sonny makes little sense at this point, since his value is at an all-time low and he would garner little in return, and putting him in the rotation would force Wade Davis back down into Triple-A, where he has little left to prove. If given the chance in the rotation, Sonny may have a big comeback year and rebound, but with the pitching depth the Rays have and the competitiveness of the franchise, I feel like the chance of him getting a gig in the rotation to begin the year is slim to none. That leaves us with two final options: leaving Sonny in Triple-A or putting him in the bullpen.
Both options certainly have their merits. Having starting pitching depth is always a good thing and Sonny still has options left, so sending him down is certainly a viable option. However, I can't help but feel that putting Sonny in the minors is a waste of his talent for the organization. The Rays have plenty of other starting pitchers in Triple-A that could fill in for an injured starter (Hellboy, Talbot, Hernandez), and anyway, putting Sonnanstine in the pen wouldn't keep him from filling in an odd spot or two if the Rays had him penciled in as their long-man, which he most likely would be.
Remember what the Rays did with Howell in 2008? This could be the same sort of process. Let Sonnanstine start off the year as the long man in the pen and see how effective he is. If he bombs, then you can always demote him without incurring much damage, and if he dominates, eventually promote him to higher leverage situations. Starters typically gain miles an hour on their fastball and increase their strikeout numbers when transitioning to the pen, both of which are changes that could benefit Sonnanstine. I'm not expecting him to be Howell v2.0 (especially since Howell had a higher K/9 total as a starter than Sonny has so far), but it may be the most efficient use of Sonnanstine's talent within our organization at the moment. He's a cheap, team-controlled arm that has displayed major league caliber talent in the past, so why not use him and save ourselves money on another reliever?
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24 comments
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Comments
Try to keep him away from a starters role as much as possible.
The guy is NOT fooling anyone any longer. The Rays should try to see if can work as a reliever or try to move him to another team. I really did like Andy when came up and he has had some moments of pure brilliance, see the Boston games in late ‘08. But, the Rays need more consistency out of Sonny and sadly, they haven’t received it.
In the name of Shinji Mori, we shall win!
by thebaddancingraysfan on Nov 8, 2009 7:29 AM EST reply actions 0 recs
The difference between Sonny and Howell is that Sonny has
actually had success in the Majors as a starter.I believe he has potential to be a starter again although it might only be in the NL (easy hitters plus he can hit!).
His horrible platoon split is what killed him so unless he evens that out a bit, he is going to be another Lance Cormier.
by therayspartyleader on Nov 8, 2009 9:07 AM EST reply actions 0 recs
From my perspective....
It wasnt simply his control that was worse in 2009, but his command was very poor as well. The benefit of having great velocity is that you get away with more mistakes the poo slingers like Sonny. His LD% was up a bit, but I would bet that balls were hit much harder this season then 2008. The biggest difference between AAA and MLB is that mistakes get crushed.
Sonny with command is a great pitcher. Without it, he sucks. Of course, the same could be said for most pitchers….but even more so for him.
by td32 on Nov 8, 2009 9:43 AM EST reply actions 0 recs
All you have to do to be successful in the pen is throw strikes.
by R.J. Anderson on Nov 8, 2009 10:12 AM EST reply actions 0 recs
Grant Balfour!
www.draysbay.com
by Tommy Rancel on Nov 8, 2009 10:40 AM EST via mobile up reply actions 0 recs
I like how Chavez' fastball has a nearly identical whiff rate to Balfour's last year.
I’m not sure whether to be tickled or disappointed.
by R.J. Anderson on Nov 8, 2009 11:27 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Sonny might benefit from a split finger or a sinking type pitch that induces more ground balls.
You don’t have to throw hard to get groundballs and with the defense behind him that’s the next best thing to a K.
www.draysbay.com
by Tommy Rancel on Nov 8, 2009 10:42 AM EST via mobile reply actions 0 recs
that might be the way to go
Gerald Wallace is the best player the Bobcats will have..... EVER
rest of the team=*yawn*
by raysfan81 on Nov 8, 2009 2:37 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Cardinal Fan here
And that what I was coming here to see. If he already had a two-seamer. Could Sonny turn into Joel Pineiro? Pineiro lived and died by his two-seamer. Threw it for strikes and walked no one. Really helped his number in 09. If Sonny can regain his BB/9 numbers of 08 with a two-seamer seems like a smart move.
But like I said I am a Cardinal fan. The entire rotation has good sinking fastballs.
by FlimtotheFlam on Nov 8, 2009 3:55 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Coincidental that I was just mulling the same issue over last night.
I have generally resisted the notion of Sonnanstine in the bullpen. It has always seemed to me that his strengths were more suited to a starter and his weaknesses more a problem as a reliever. But like you, I was considering options, and at this point I do not see him replacing anyone in the rotation, nor do I want to trade him for pennies on the dollar.
So perhaps a long man in the bullpen role is the best thing. I like the idea of having relievers who can go 3 or 4 innings, even more, and who might also get a spot start if needed. My template is Ramiro Mendoza of the Yankees, 1996-2002, who I think was a valuable member of that staff. I still think that his stuff (by which I mean repertoire, movement, delivery et al) is major league quality and that he is a smart pitcher who can refine his skills, and perhaps in such a role he could provide versatility that would enhance the entire staff.
by bobr on Nov 8, 2009 1:11 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
Sonnanstine would just stay in the pool house.
Ordering pizza and watching Ray Romano.
by R.J. Anderson on Nov 8, 2009 2:02 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
SORT OF OT:
RAHEEM MORRIS WINS
Why do you kill threads????
by Some other guy who does not care on Nov 8, 2009 4:33 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
Isn't a corollary issue the options left on pen alternatives?
What are the options status on Talbot and Chavez? I thought the latter had some, but the former was out?
Talbot and Sonny likely fill the same role in the pen, at least in the short run, so carrying both active might not be optimal.
And depth is certainly an issue, perhaps more than is recognized here. Typically a team employs 8 different or more starters in a given season, and 10+ RP’s. The Rays have been somewhat fortunate in the SP area in the past few seasons, but ready depth that relies on Talbot or Sonny plus Hellickson and some other minors signings (isn’t Hernandez a minors FA?), while it may have to do, may be a little slim. I don’t see an alternative, though depth in Durham can be augmented by signings.
RP depth is another thing, again to be supplemented by minors signings, but willl that suffice for a team hoping to contend in a division toped by 2 teams that finished in the top 5 in final record in 2009? Some quality / depth improvemnt seems in order.
by nyyfaninlaaland on Nov 8, 2009 6:48 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
Chavez has three.
Talbot has none.
Sonny has two.
So, if it comes down to those three (or two) the Rays would probably go with Talbot. Which, if you do that, you can keep Sonnanstine as a starter in Durham and have him as the sixth option.
Or you could send Davis down and call him up after the Super Two date passes.
by R.J. Anderson on Nov 8, 2009 7:19 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Good point about the options
I could have sworn Talbot still had one year left for some reason (whoops!), but you’re right. Shoot…that probably would have changed the end of the piece a bit, but oh well. It’s still minors or bullpen most likely, and if Talbot’s out of options, I’d imagine too that he’ll get put in the pen.
Definitely possible with Davis, but I wonder if they’d actually do it. That’ll be an interesting story to follow come February.
"I never threw an illegal pitch. The trouble is, once in a while I toss one that ain't never been seen by this generation." - Satchel Paige
by Steve Slowinski on Nov 8, 2009 9:58 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Given Davis' hot performance, I'm guessing not.
No idea what they’ll do with Talbot. Maybe they can get an injury option exception. Cannot imagine he’d pass through waivers.
by R.J. Anderson on Nov 8, 2009 10:12 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Depends how he comes to camp
If he’s healthy and sharp, he’s got a shot. If he pitches like he’s pitching in Arizona or if his stuff is down because of injury I’m not sure they’d have a problem putting him on waivers.
Vroom vroom party starter
www.raysprospects.com
by Imperialism32 on Nov 8, 2009 11:59 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Reliever?
If we put him in the bullpen what is the possibilty he could turn into the next J.P. Howell. Howell struggled as a starter after he went through the lineup once because he wasn’t fooling anyone the second time around, but now dominates in the pen. Could Andy do the same?
by Bluechips85 on Nov 9, 2009 1:25 AM EST reply actions 0 recs
The odds are quite slim
Howell is the exception to the rule, not the rule. Not all starters dominate when they go to the pen, but do they typically improve slightly once moved. Howell had a high K rate even as a starter (8+ per 9), and Andy isn’t anywhere near that. I don’t think Andy would be as good as him, but hey, stranger things have happened.
"I never threw an illegal pitch. The trouble is, once in a while I toss one that ain't never been seen by this generation." - Satchel Paige
by Steve Slowinski on Nov 9, 2009 6:50 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

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