FG Rays Community Projection Open Thread

by FreeZorilla on Dec 1, 2009 10:23 AM EST

As R.J. posted yesterday, Fangraphs has setup community projection availability to registered users (FREE). It's a tool definitely worth registering for. I thought this would be a good place to discuss how our individual projections came out on Rays and other notables.

This post was written by a member of the DRaysBay community and does not necessarily express the views or opinions of DRaysBay staff.

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Ben Zobrist

Surprised to see that I came in under the overall community projection:

Zo spit out based on my inputs:
wOBA:.373, WAR 5.5, UZR: 13
.270/.366/.489

Team Fans: wOBA .381 WAR 6.2 UZR 11.3 .287/.389/.479
Other Fan wOBA .373 WAR 5.8 UZR 8.9 .282/.379/.471

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by FreeZorilla on Dec 1, 2009 10:35 AM EST reply actions

Everybody loves Zobot.

by Suttree on Dec 1, 2009 10:54 AM EST up reply actions

I had him at 4.5 WAR.

by R.J. Anderson on Dec 1, 2009 11:18 AM EST up reply actions

That seems more along the lines of traditional projection systems

What did you project for UZR and HR?

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by FreeZorilla on Dec 1, 2009 11:57 AM EST up reply actions

8 UZR, 17 HR

by R.J. Anderson on Dec 1, 2009 1:01 PM EST up reply actions

So far I only have Longo and Zobie showing up and I have to say that those seem, maybe on the high side, but

pretty dang reasonable.

I'm a writer.

by Andy Hellicksonstine on Dec 1, 2009 11:23 AM EST reply actions

Longo:

	HR	K%	BB%	wOBA	UZR	WAR
Rays	36	23.6	11.5	0.389	17.1	7.5
Other	33	24	11.5	0.382	14.7	6.9

by R.J. Anderson on Dec 1, 2009 11:23 AM EST reply actions

That's hot.

by Suttree on Dec 1, 2009 11:32 AM EST up reply actions

Egad, i'm higher than Rays fan projections for Longo

37 HR wOBA .398 UZR 18 WAR 7.5

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by FreeZorilla on Dec 1, 2009 12:06 PM EST up reply actions

I have Evan at 5.7 WAR, UZR of 13.

I suppose I’m being too conservative on his defense relative to everyone else.

by R.J. Anderson on Dec 1, 2009 1:02 PM EST up reply actions

Bumped his defense up, now I'm at 6.2.

I can’t figure out why I’m so far off everyone else unless I really went low on the homers/extra base hits.

by R.J. Anderson on Dec 1, 2009 1:08 PM EST up reply actions

It's probably because you touch yourself

Also, you shouldn’t alter your projections to fit in with the mainstream. Obviously, you felt a certain way when you made them.

I'm a writer.

by Andy Hellicksonstine on Dec 1, 2009 1:14 PM EST up reply actions

With Evan I assumed a minimal improvement in plate discipline (experience) which would affect his BA slightly

With Zo, as I’ve voiced in other forums, I don’t put much stock in Marcels type analysis given the small samples of previous yrs. I chose just to slower his BA south of .280, slightly lower walk rate, same home runs which would indicate a lower rate since he wasnt a full time starter all yr, and I tool half his UZR.

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by FreeZorilla on Dec 1, 2009 1:14 PM EST up reply actions