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Additional Analysis on Kelly Shoppach

Now for a bit more analysis and a little less overview; although feel free to review the initial post if need be. At this point the PTBNL is obviously unknown (we'll know before the night of December 20th), so the focus is solely on Kelly Shoppach.

As previously mentioned, he is 30-years-old, right-handed, and has a history of walking, hitting for pop, and (small sample size warning) squashing lefties. Cleveland has a cabinet full of able backstops and Shoppach's price was only increasing (he's arbitration eligible for the second year and made $1.9M last season).We also know he's an average to slightly below average defensive catcher based on the things we can measure - i.e. blocking balls and throwing out baserunners. Let's put this all together.­

Over the last three years, Shoppach has hit .245/.336/.467. An .803 OPS which would've put him in a pack with guys like Brian Roberts, Magglio Ordonez, and Nick Markakis last season. One thing: those guys aren't catchers. Minus Roberts, the other two are paid in large part because they can hit the ball. Shoppach has issues with contact and he's going to swing and miss quite a bit. Those people who hate Carlos Pena, B.J. Upton, and Pat Burrell because they went down on strikes a lot? Yeah, they're going to detest Shoppach's being on a nightly basis.

CHONE projects Shoppach to hit .229/.322/.422. The average American League catcher hit .254/.321/.396 and that's with Joe Mauer's incredible season taken into account. That projection puts Shoppach essentially equal to his 2009 performance. Which is fine. But he had a .286 BABIP in 2009, and his career BABIP is still at .334. There's a chance that shoots up some, just don't count on it. Interestingly Shoppach has an affinity for being plunked with pitches.

Onto his issues with righties and delights on lefties. With platoon splits you have to regress heavily, as MGL pointed out recently. That OPS versus left-handers looks awfully nice, and I'm not saying he won't hit well against them or poorly against righties, it's just not a given that such a figure is his true talent level and the answer is probably somewhere in the middle.

Taking everything into account, Shoppach projects to be something like a 1.5 < x < 2 WAR player next season depending on playing time.  He's going to walk, strike out, and hit some dingers while catching modestly. The front office can't put their feet up and call it an off-season after this one, but it's a nice enough start if the PTBNL is nothing of relevance.

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any speculations on the PTBNL?

could Navarro not be offered arb now

Gerald Wallace is the best player the Bobcats will have..... EVER

by raysfan81 on Dec 1, 2009 4:32 PM EST reply actions   0 recs

Doubt it. They have their catcher in Carlos Santana

Maybe they want Gabe Gross.

www.draysbay.com

by Tommy Rancel on Dec 1, 2009 4:34 PM EST via mobile up reply actions   0 recs

Cleveland has a super computer database

Super computer databases love Gabe Gross. But more than likely an arm with upside. Shoppach was a non tender candidate, so the Rays probably didn’t want him hitting open market.

www.draysbay.com

by Tommy Rancel on Dec 1, 2009 4:49 PM EST via mobile up reply actions   0 recs

I've been jokingly saying that Aybar should learn to catch.

Imagine a Shoppach/Aybar platoon…hmm

Sign lady must die.

by EminenceFront on Dec 1, 2009 5:17 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

It would be one of Bradleys roles

-Hit well
-Stay out of trouble
-Get hurt for our awesome bench’s sake

Give me a CC long term deal, please!

by joeybw on Dec 1, 2009 5:22 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Lies

He was performing missionary work and couldn’t get paid vaca without an injury.

I'm a writer.

by Andy Hellicksonstine on Dec 1, 2009 5:25 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Aybar is the only legit option behind Pena at 1B

Of course he could be replaced, but for ~1 million dollars Aybars bat + his ability to fill in at the corners makes him very valuable to this team

www.draysbay.com

by Tommy Rancel on Dec 1, 2009 5:26 PM EST via mobile up reply actions   0 recs

The contract is nifty.

Can’t wait til he backs up the glass case of Sweeney. Knock on wood.

by R.J. Anderson on Dec 1, 2009 5:27 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Don't assume that someone is a future MLB 1B based on success in the Cali League

Bad Left Hook - The SB Nation boxing blog
"Baseball is played on the field, not on a calculator."

by Brickhaus on Dec 2, 2009 1:31 AM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Sorry, that came off sounding pedantic

But i think you know what I mean. There are a lot of guys who can’t hit a lick past that league, and it’s not like he even hit that spectacularly there.

Bad Left Hook - The SB Nation boxing blog
"Baseball is played on the field, not on a calculator."

by Brickhaus on Dec 2, 2009 1:33 AM EST up reply actions   0 recs

At least Reid has focused on his glove since raking out west.

The numbers have approached baseline, but he has made gigantic strides in the field. I’m really excited to see what Reid can do after being bearish on him for years.

I'm a writer.

by Andy Hellicksonstine on Dec 2, 2009 9:28 AM EST up reply actions   0 recs

We "have" Crowe

in the sense that he’s on the team, yes.

Steel Nick

by nickjs21 on Dec 1, 2009 5:10 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

He looks decent at a glance.

I’m under the impression you aren’t expecting to compete next season, so he’ll probably get a few hundred plate appearances, no?

by R.J. Anderson on Dec 1, 2009 5:13 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Off the top of my head

He’s the fourth outfielder with LaPorta spending most of the time at 1st. Hard to judge what Acta will do, but Wedge probably would have found 450 ABs for him.

He sucks. Or he will suck. Whichever.

Steel Nick

by nickjs21 on Dec 1, 2009 5:43 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Yea, he was supposed to be a defense/speed guy, but he wasn’t even particularly effective at that last season.

by Roger Dorn on Dec 1, 2009 5:54 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

My guess is

a pitcher. Talbot?

by bobr on Dec 1, 2009 4:46 PM EST reply actions   0 recs

Talbot is a logical guess

They have a very questionable rotation, especially if Westbrook isn’t ready

by sternfan1 on Dec 1, 2009 4:49 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

I’ve seen his name pop up a few times around random sites, nothing to make someone thinks his name is on the Indians wish list, but I’d be intrigued given the Indians concern is starting pitching depth.

Although I’d imagine the Indians are getting a guy who’s not going to be a rule 5 problem for a while.

by GoTribe028 on Dec 1, 2009 7:26 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

I don't see it.....

Everyone seems to like this deal, however i just don’t see how this guy is worth $2M. AKA the 5th highest paid player on the team.

Mound Visit

by Mound Visit on Dec 1, 2009 4:55 PM EST reply actions   0 recs

Say he's a 1.5 WAR player.

That’s worth about 7 million. He’s in arb2, so you expect him to make about 60% of his market value which is around 4 mil. If he makes $2-2.5M next year and produces like he has, he’ll be worth it.

by R.J. Anderson on Dec 1, 2009 4:56 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

yep

without even thinking about trades or FA signings, Bartlett and Garza will probably make more than Shoppach

Give me a CC long term deal, please!

by joeybw on Dec 1, 2009 5:02 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

who cares, anyways? it’s testament to how cheap your quality players are signed for.

by westbrook on Dec 1, 2009 7:37 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

sure if
odd things = no postseason guarantee

I guess CC Sabathia wouldn’t be interested in going to Tampa.

by westbrook on Dec 1, 2009 8:20 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

I’m just interpreting this differently than you apparently meant it. But still, those teams spent about 60% of what my example did.

by westbrook on Dec 1, 2009 9:18 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Cameron weighs in:
Catchers who can hit at a league average rate are pretty valuable. Given his overall production, Shoppach projects as something like a +2 win catcher if given regular playing time. He’s likely to be worth $7 to $9 million next year, and due to his poor 2009 season, he won’t get anything close to that in arbitration. The Rays picked up a nice player at something of a discount, as they have been known to do.

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/shoppach-to-the-rays

by R.J. Anderson on Dec 1, 2009 5:02 PM EST reply actions   0 recs

As for another DRB target

It’s official now, no arby for Calero

Give me a CC long term deal, please!

by joeybw on Dec 1, 2009 5:07 PM EST reply actions   0 recs

Or Hawkins (Type A)

though he would probably cost us half of our off season budget.

the ghost of stokes, camp, lugo strikes TB-sept 2009

by CubFanRaysaddict on Dec 1, 2009 6:32 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Hawkins and Dotel are both interesting

Type A’s not offered arby, if we can get one of them on 1 year deal(perhaps with a 2nd year option), it would be a great addition

Give me a CC long term deal, please!

by joeybw on Dec 1, 2009 6:42 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

I'll pass on Hawkins.

He is the definition of an NL pitcher. He has been downright awful in the AL. I’d like for the Rays to take a chance on Putz, assuming the Rays’ FO is able to get him to sign an incentive-laden deal.

Eduardo Morlan = God.

by Devilray187 on Dec 1, 2009 6:43 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Yeah, Talbot makes sense. Are there any Rule 5 guys the Rays have left exposed that the Tribe might be interested in if they aren’t drafted? Would kind of explain the Dec. 20 deadline although if there was someone the Indians wanted they’d just draft him, right? Unless they didn’t want to have to keep him on the 25 man all year. Pardon my rambling.

by MickS on Dec 1, 2009 7:15 PM EST reply actions   0 recs

So the Indians select Aneury in the Rule 5 draft and the Rays relinquish their claim to him thus completing the Shoppach trade and allowing the Indians to send him down to the minors. Is that possible?

by MickS on Dec 1, 2009 7:32 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

He's not out of options, just has to be on the 40-man.

He can be sent down, I’m guessing the Indians just want to pick between a few players at this point.

by R.J. Anderson on Dec 1, 2009 7:57 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

He can’t be sent down if he’s a Rule 5 pick. He’d have to stay on the Tribe’s 25 man roster…unless he’s used to complete the Shoppach trade.

by MickS on Dec 1, 2009 8:27 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

and I bid you a good day, Jeff Bennett

Give me a CC long term deal, please!

by joeybw on Dec 1, 2009 7:50 PM EST reply actions   0 recs

wait wtf

we offered arby to Zaun which is fine with me but we also offered it to Shouse. Please dont accept, Brian!

Give me a CC long term deal, please!

by joeybw on Dec 1, 2009 7:52 PM EST reply actions   0 recs

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