Quick and Dirty Look at the Projected Roster with Projections

by rglass44 on Dec 10, 2009 11:51 AM EST

I did a quick glance to see who I thought would make the roster barring any more moves. I left 2 open spots (backup catcher and last BP arm) because who knows who'll shake out. Then I did a quick WAR projection for the 25 man. I did it almost as a baseline, a minimum I'd expect factoring in some chance of injury or regression.

		WAR
C	Shoppach	2
1B	Pena	3
2B	Zobrist	4
3B	Longo	6
SS	Bartlett	3
LF	CC	4
CF	Upton	3.5
RF	Joyce	2
DH	Burrell	1
B	Kapler	1
B	Aybar	1
B	Backup C	0

SP	Shields	4
SP	Garza	3
SP	Price	2.5
SP	Niemann	2.5
SP	Davis	1.5
CL	Soriano	1.5
SU	Howell	1
SU	Balfour	1
MR	Wheeler	0.25
MR	Choate	0.25
MR	Cormier	0.25
MR	?	0
SW	Sonny	0.5
	WAR	48.75
	Wins	96.25

As you can see, even with a pretty baseline forecast this team looks like a team that should make a playoff run. If our players only achieve at these minimum levels, I doubt we do make the playoffs because of divisional strength. Looks like a pretty good team next year. If we add Bradley we will have addressed 3 of our biggest needs from last year on paper: getting SOME production out of the catcher spot, getting SOME production out of the DH spot, and upgrading the BP. Throw in some hopeful progression by the youngsters and I'm excited. How long till pitchers and catchers report?

This post was written by a member of the DRaysBay community and does not necessarily express the views or opinions of DRaysBay staff.

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Comments

71 days mate!

by Thaddeus? on Dec 10, 2009 1:54 PM EST reply actions

...There goes my win curve post.

by R.J. Anderson on Dec 10, 2009 1:59 PM EST reply actions

You have the same # roughly?

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by FreeZorilla on Dec 10, 2009 2:03 PM EST up reply actions

I just added Shoppach/Soriano/Kapler and moved Howell/Balfour down slightly

But yeah, I have us around 94 wins and mine are ultra conservative.

by R.J. Anderson on Dec 10, 2009 2:43 PM EST up reply actions

RJ haz a sad

by rglass44 on Dec 10, 2009 2:08 PM EST up reply actions

Why do people keep messing up the sad-on joke?

I can't wait until we trade him for a reliever.

by kericr on Dec 10, 2009 2:10 PM EST up reply actions

You can mark Wade D down for 5 WAR

I'm a writer.

by Andy Hellicksonstine on Dec 10, 2009 2:08 PM EST reply actions

Weren't you reading the MLB.com message boards???

Soriano is worth 10-20 wins! Fix it, jackass!

by Thaddeus? on Dec 10, 2009 2:23 PM EST reply actions

So this might be out of date already.

by R.J. Anderson on Dec 10, 2009 2:50 PM EST reply actions

Fun news?

by rglass44 on Dec 10, 2009 3:05 PM EST up reply actions

my conservative WAR for BOSSMAN in 2010

is 12

by daveh33 on Dec 10, 2009 3:19 PM EST reply actions

FG Community Projections

I looked at just the players with the min # of projections cast o qualify for the leaderboard. For the porjected starting lineup with no RF, the Comm Proj was 7.5 Wins higher. Shields, Price, Garza, Shields account for 1 extra win on FG. These #’s from Glass are conservative which makes it all the more impressive.

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by FreeZorilla on Dec 11, 2009 9:27 AM EST reply actions