Can Rafael Soriano Top The Greatest Closing Season In Rays History?
Kind of a loaded question, but we hope so. We can argue about designated roles, and who is really the Rays best relief pitcher, but Rafael Soriano will hold the title. The team, as well as the other relievers, should benefit from that fact. That also means that he'll get a chance to answer the question posed in the title.
Like catcher and right field, the Rays search for a closer more often than not has come up empty handed. While Mariano Rivera has racked up 478 saves since the (Devil) Rays debut in 1998, 39 different Rays' relievers have comprised the franchise's 427 saves. We now turn to Soriano and hope #40 is the charm.
Looking back on Rays closers, the list is a mixed bunch. Ranging from one of the all-time save kings in Troy Percival down to Lance Carter, the list is hardly a picture of relief aces. Since we know a closer shouldn't be limited to, or just measured by, saves, I decided to set the criteria for a closer as such: The reliever must have pitched at least 40 relief innings in a season with a pLI minimum of 1.60. Here is the list:
|
Year |
Player |
IP |
pLI |
|
2009 |
J.P Howell |
66.2 |
1.82 |
|
2008 |
Troy Percival |
45.2 |
1.79 |
|
2008 |
66.1 |
1.72 |
|
|
2007 |
60.2 |
1.66 |
|
|
2005 |
72.1 |
2.16 |
|
|
2004 |
Danys Baez |
68 |
1.7 |
|
2003 |
Lance Carter |
79 |
1.73 |
|
2002 |
69 |
2.05 |
|
|
2001 |
Esteban Yan |
62.1 |
1.82 |
|
2000 |
73.1 |
1.95 |
|
|
1999 |
Roberto Hernandez |
73.1 |
2.21 |
|
1998 |
Roberto Hernandez |
71.1 |
1.73 |
You'll notice that 2006 is missing; that's because there was zero qualified candidates. No reliever with a minimum of 40 innings even topped a 1.2 pLI. Depending on which part of that season you're looking at, the Rays "closer" could've been any one of the following: Tyler Walker, Dan Miceli, Brian Meadows, Seth McClung, or Shawn Camp. Atrocious.
Now that we have our list, here is how those pitchers performed by FIP:
|
Year |
Player |
FIP |
|
1999 |
Roberto Hernandez |
2.94 |
|
2001 |
Esteban Yan |
3.23 |
|
2009 |
J.P Howell |
3.71 |
|
2000 |
Roberto Hernandez |
4.13 |
|
2005 |
Danys Baez |
4.2 |
|
2004 |
Danys Baez |
4.25 |
|
1998 |
Roberto Hernandez |
4.44 |
|
2008 |
Dan Wheeler |
4.49 |
|
2003 |
Lance Carter |
4.69 |
|
2002 |
Esteban Yan |
4.7 |
|
2007 |
Al Reyes |
4.85 |
|
2008 |
Troy Percival |
5.87 |
Going with this quick and easy method of analysis, Roberto Hernandez's 1999 season is the golden standard for all Rays' relievers. Hernandez not only had the highest pLI in Rays history, but also the lowest FIP for a closer. A quick check of CHONE's historical WAR database says Hernandez was worth 3.1 wins above replacement that season. Nonetheless, the D-Rays finished in last place that season with a record of 69-93.
The surprise on the list has to be Esteban Yan in 2001. More famous for being referenced in the Simpsons than anything on the field, Yan had the second best closing season according to FIP. Despite what some believe, save percentage does not tell you the whole story. 2009's version of J.P. Howell finished third on the FIP list, and had the Iceman not melted late in 2009, he probably would've given Yan and Hernandez a run for their money.
While the older, oft-injured closer approached has worked in short doses, Troy Percival and his predecessor, Al Reyes, are among the worst closing seasons in the franchise's history.
In 2009, Rafael Soriano posted a pLI of 1.66 for the Braves. He finished with 75.2 innings pitched and a fantastic FIP of 2.54. If he can some how duplicate last season's success in 2010, we will witness the greatest closer season in Rays' history. Not to put to much pressure on the man's right arm (it's fragile, after all), if Soriano can give the Rays 65 high leverage innings and maintain an FIP in the 3.5 season, I'll gladly take that.
1 recs |
42 comments
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Comments
I'm not sure how pLI figures into measuring who the best closer was
unless it was a function of saves/save chances. Still not a true talent measure, but at least it helps balance out tough saves from easy ones for more effective results-based analysis. Surprised to see Yan Can Cook so high on the FIP list.
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Yea, I didn't use it to determine who had the best season
Just used it as a baseline to determine who was used in the toughest situations and not surprisingly they were all used as a closer at some point. Hernandez just happened to have the highest pLI and the best FIP.
I was also shocked Yan had that season. Just goes to show you can catch any reliever on that one good year and have it work out.
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by Tommy Rancel on Dec 15, 2009 9:33 AM EST via mobile up reply actions
It's funny , when a team is as bad as the Rays were
you barely notice what a truly outstanding year Hernandez had
Yep.
A good closer on a bad team really doesn’t mean much. Soria is a good example. He’s just wasting away.
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by Tommy Rancel on Dec 15, 2009 9:44 AM EST via mobile up reply actions
Hey, Hernandez is only 45!
That’s half Percival’s age! Maybe we could lure him out of retirement for a setup man role?
Hooray for CubsStats.blogspot.com !
IMHO Howell and Soriano have a 40/60 split in saves
Can we get robots for umpires and a computer to make in game strategy decisions? I'm sick of inconsistently bad umpiring and Joe's pitiful in game management. Oh and Navi (and BJ) need some PED's. BenZo, Bartlett, and Pena do not.
Aww man I hope Pizzle gets 40 saves and Sori gets 60
We would shatter all kinds of records.
I'm a writer.
by Andy Hellicksonstine on Dec 15, 2009 2:04 PM EST up reply actions
wtf
What the hell does pLI mean? What does FIP mean? Wtf is CHONES? Is there a Rays blog that doesn’t require a degree in Advanced Mathmatical Statistics? Jus’ sayin.
You don't need an advanced degree to understand what the stats mean
Appreciate the work of the smart folks who design the stats that better measure true talent. It takes no more intelligence to apply an already calculated FIP than it does ERA. It just takes an open mind. If you choose to keep a simpler understanding of the game of baseball, no hard feelings but you and our readership will be better served by you frequenting newspaper sites and message boards. You’ve been linked to the stats guide twice now. I’d suggest going to it.
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This is the third time you've made a comment like this.
You’ve been linked to the stats guide twice. Either make an effort or don’t comment. It’s not complicated if you try.
by R.J. Anderson on Dec 15, 2009 9:57 PM EST up reply actions
This is the your comment that started the conflicting views.
" wtf
What the hell does pLI mean? What does FIP mean? Wtf is CHONES? Is there a Rays blog that doesn’t require a degree in Advanced Mathmatical Statistics? Jus’ sayin."
___________________________________________________________________________________
If this was intended as sarcasm, I admit I missed it*. It struck me simply as a criticism of a Rays blog that integrates advanced stats in its posts. Now if you had written it to mock closed minded people who revel in their ignorance-a Murray Chass type person for example-then I would have picked up the sarcasm immediately, but why would someone be sarcastic about his own ignorance?
As for the last question, my guess is you already know about the Heater where fans can say pretty much anything they want with no effort to use data or reason to support their contentions, and the only criticism they can expect is “you’re stupid” or some variation. When data is adduced, it is commonly traditional stats such as RBIs, wins, saves and the like, and you do not have to worry about anyone making the effort to dig any deeper.
I don’t see the distinction between a statistical blog and a fan blog. Fans have always been interested in statistics; witness the backs of baseball cards that I was trading 50+ years ago. I don’t recall many kids worrying about the formula for figuring ERA or BA. We just wanted to have something to understand how good or not good players were.
The only difference is that understanding has advanced so that we can consider more meaningful stats. I don’t make much effort to puzzle out the math, but I am grateful that many people do, and I can usually understand the logic behind the stats, why they demonstrate what they do. That is immensely satisfying and fun too. When I lose track, I go to glossaries. I certainly consider myself a fan, not a statistician, and the sheer pleasure of thinking about my team and baseball in so many varied ways makes my fandom increasingly satisfying.
If you do not have an affinity for advanced baseball stats, I don’t think that should eliminate your interest in this site, but if it does, why quarrel about it. This isn’t an assigned reading. Go where you feel comfortable. To attempt sarcasm about the use of the stats seems to me a strange effort calculated to appeal to people’s fear of appearing thoughtful and their rejection of reason. I don’t think this site has a receptive audience for that sort of approach.
*I should note that I did recognize your questions about pLI et al were intended as a sort of mockery, sort of like the bugwits who think that by saying VORP with a sneer they are somehow undercutting its validity. I don’t think that sort of thing deserves the appellation of sarcasm.
by bobr on Dec 16, 2009 12:35 PM EST up reply actions 3 recs
I commend you whole heartedly
sir.
Why do you kill threads????
by Some other guy who does not care on Dec 16, 2009 2:15 PM EST up reply actions
Honestly
It really wasn’t meant to start a firestorm. I have no problem learning what they mean, obviously I do have learning to do. I love the Rays and have been a huge fan since moving to Saint Petersburg from Iowa in 2007. I really have little problem with how this site is written, and it’s subject matter. My problem is with how that subject matter was presented.
First off
I haven’t been linked to anything. Or at least not that I’ve noticed. Also, Mr. R.J. Anderson, that was only my second comment of that nature, third overall. I never said anything was complicated. It’s called sarcasm.
In my opinion, and this is just my opinion as a fan, if you wanted to make a Statistical blog, make a statistical blog. If you wanted to make a fan blog, make a fan blog. However, assuming that all Rays fans are awed by numbers and math is far from an open table.
I’m not stupid. I’m not too lazy to look up the meanings of those stats. Hell, I’m not even unwilling to learn. I just don’t have an affinity for advanced baseball statistics.
If I had to wager a guess, this would be your way of keeping out uninformed Red Sox and Yankee’s fans from putting up a fight. Unfortunately, you’re keeping out a large number of Rays fans who would enjoy an open table blog.
I’m not saying you need to change what you write about by any means, simply how you write it. Explanations of those numbers and examples of how they’re relevant would be a good start. Stop writing like you assume everyone knows exactly what you’re talking about. I almost guarantee more hits.
That is all.
Don't let the door hit ya where the good lord split ya
I just don’t have an affinity for advanced baseball statistics.
Seeing as there is a vibrant community of people that took the time to speak the lingo, perhaps you are the one that should change. It’s really not that hard. Quality over quantity my good man.
I'm a writer.
by Andy Hellicksonstine on Dec 16, 2009 9:38 AM EST up reply actions
Website description
Founded in 2005. DRaysBay is home to “Progressive statistical analysis and reasoned argument.”
FIP is thrown around on here as often as ESPN throws out ERA. It does not require an explanation every single time. I don’t disagree that the occasional refresher or discussion of a stat is a bad idea, but it takes away from the daily analysis to have to teach it. ESPN does not explain ERA every time. Additionally, that stats guide which you were linked to twice can be found here: http://www.draysbay.com/2009/1/26/736782/the-draysbay-stats-guide
Follow Me on Twitter @FreeZorilla
Alex Remington is doing a fantastic job with his series
I'm a writer.
by Andy Hellicksonstine on Dec 16, 2009 10:11 AM EST up reply actions
Until there are wOBA splits, OPS will remain purposeful to me
And if they exist already, please do tell. OPS is a far cry from Wins, Saves or Batting Average in usefullness. Its just not quite as good as wOBA
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by FreeZorilla on Dec 16, 2009 10:27 AM EST up reply actions
It's not hard to do your own splits
Just import the splits and then apply the formula
I'm a writer.
by Andy Hellicksonstine on Dec 16, 2009 10:55 AM EST up reply actions
For the sake of ease, I'm comfortable using OBP and SLG there
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by FreeZorilla on Dec 16, 2009 10:56 AM EST up reply actions
Just save the formula into an excel spreadsheet so that when you import the data you only have to change the references
You can do this with FIP or any of the other formulas that you use quite a bit. Easier than referencing the formula everytime.
I'm a writer.
by Andy Hellicksonstine on Dec 16, 2009 11:08 AM EST up reply actions
Mr. Zorilla
Please, before you say “you were linked to that twice” one more time, show me exactly WHERE I was linked to it. Also, Hellicksonstine. I never said it was hard. As I find this site at this point, it is more a statistical blog than an actual Rays fan blog. Am I correct?
You are incorrect
I'm a writer.
by Andy Hellicksonstine on Dec 16, 2009 10:56 AM EST up reply actions
Not that proof was necessary but,
See RJ’s reply:
http://www.draysbay.com/2009/12/9/1186656/catcher-alternatives-from-the-left#26841922
and see PMCY’s reply
http://www.draysbay.com/2009/12/8/1191107/winter-meetings-day-two-open-thread#26791694
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by FreeZorilla on Dec 16, 2009 10:58 AM EST up reply actions
Indeed it was, click on the up link on his comment to see what the reply was too
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by FreeZorilla on Dec 16, 2009 11:11 AM EST up reply actions
Actually it's my way of enjoying and understanding the game.
If you think 1) this stuff is unbeknown to Red Sox fans and 2) I do this for hits — which we’re doing quite well in that department, thanks — then you know less about things than you think.
This site isn’t for everyone. If you want to know more about baseball then stick around, if you think this is over your head and you have no interest in learning, then don’t read. I don’t care either way.
by R.J. Anderson on Dec 16, 2009 10:12 AM EST up reply actions
Like I've mentioned above
I don’t have any problem learning what these things mean. Understanding does not equal interest. I may know what every single one of those abbreviations means, but it does not mean I want to see it in every post. As I type this I have the Stats Guide open. Thank you.
Feel free to do your own PanPost with the type of fandom you enjoy
I’m sure you will generate comments
Follow Me on Twitter @FreeZorilla
by FreeZorilla on Dec 16, 2009 10:59 AM EST up reply actions
You're having a problem learning that I don't really give a damn what you want.
by R.J. Anderson on Dec 16, 2009 11:08 AM EST up reply actions
As I've said before. Either stick and learn, stop whining, or leave. It's your choice.
by R.J. Anderson on Dec 16, 2009 11:08 AM EST up reply actions
That reply seems pretty unemotional
It’s 3 options, pick one and follow through.
I'm a writer.
by Andy Hellicksonstine on Dec 16, 2009 11:19 AM EST up reply actions
1st AMENDMENT
How many times is this used on blogs?
Why do you kill threads????
by Some other guy who does not care on Dec 16, 2009 11:22 AM EST up reply actions
Excuse me Miss
I’ll have you know that the Supreme Court has roundly rejected prior restraint. I didn’t have buddies die face down in the muck so that you could enjoy your precious little coffee shop.
I'm a writer.
by Andy Hellicksonstine on Dec 16, 2009 11:24 AM EST up reply actions
Yes, you're not being ass by saying you want a site to change how it conducts business just for you.
I’m the unreasonable one here.
by R.J. Anderson on Dec 16, 2009 11:21 AM EST up reply actions
And you're not reading what i'm saying
I was not making that argument at all, I actually specifically noted that I WAS NOT expecting what you write about to change. I never said you were unreasonable, either.
You know what. I'm tired of the fancy states.
I want RJ to write a whole segment on Balfour’s ERA. :)
Dear Sir
Grant balfour sucks per E.R.A.
Why do you kill threads????
by Some other guy who does not care on Dec 16, 2009 2:17 PM EST up reply actions

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