Where Jason's Place is Right Field in Fenway
Looking at old editions of the Baseball America Handbook is pretty fun for the projected lineup feature alone. People love rosterbating with prospects and filling them into slots and while BA probably assumes people don't take these literally, I'm sure some do. They are what they are: a prospective lineup three years in the future if trades and free agency don't occur. That being said, here's a reason you should never try to project a lineup a year into the future, forget about two, three, or four. This is the 2010 projected lineup from the 2007 Handbook:
CA Dioner Navarro
1B Joel Guzman
2B Jorge Cantu
SS Reid Brignac
LF Carl Crawford
CF Rocco Baldelli
RF Delmon Young
DH B.J. Upton
SP Scott Kazmir
SP Jeff Nieman
SP Jacob McGee
SP Wade Davis
SP Matt Walker
CP Juan Salas
All told, eight of the fifteen are no longer in the organization and only five players project to actually be in the starting lineup or rotation on opening day 2010. I mean, yeah, nobody saw the trade of Delmon coming, or Kazmir being dealt, or Salas turning into Waldo, but that's the thing about rosters: they change, a lot. Don't forget that when you try to figure out how the Rays will sort out the rotational mess in 2012. For all we know, Matt Garza will be a Brewer by then.
Bonus fun:
The 2010 Red Sox starting right fielder was something named Jason Place
The 2010 Yankees starting first baseman? Eric Duncan, released a few weeks ago.
Note: I'm in no way mocking BA. Tasks like these are just impossible and ultimately pointless.
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Garza for Gamel and Lucroy
Make this happen.
I'm a writer.
by Andy Hellicksonstine on Dec 17, 2009 1:11 PM EST reply actions
Yeah, BA knows this feature sucks
They took it out one year and got so much negative feedback they had to put it back in.
Vroom vroom party starter
www.raysprospects.com
I love the "future line-ups" predictions.
They are complete shots in the dark. But, it’s fun to look at in retrospect.
Blah!
by thebaddancingraysfan on Dec 17, 2009 1:24 PM EST reply actions
Its a nice baseline for seeing who was moved and for what
DH BJ is pretty funny.
Follow Me on Twitter @FreeZorilla
Indeed
I know he was having trouble with SS at the time so it would have been a stretch to predict him as a plus defender at a premium defensive position, but falling all the way to DH in 3 years? You have to have pretty good fielding skills to get a shot at SS in the first place.
by ChiBurbRaysFan on Dec 17, 2009 1:54 PM EST up reply actions
Right, Zobrist is another case of a flawed SS who is excelling at antoher position
Follow Me on Twitter @FreeZorilla
*Not really, he's not that good in CF, but building up Zobrist as being the ultimate combination of skill while being packed to the teeth with grit is fun enough.
I can't wait until we trade him for a reliever.
You also have to be able to hit to be a DH
zing.
I'm a writer.
by Andy Hellicksonstine on Dec 17, 2009 2:10 PM EST up reply actions
Tru
Having a struggling hitter who plays exceptional CF serve as a DH makes as much sense as having 21. Million$ Navi as a reserve catcher to face tough RHP.
Follow Me on Twitter @FreeZorilla
Well in 07 he was neither a struggling hitter nor an exceptional CF
But I still don’t see how you project him as DH, at worst he should have been projected for 1B or COF.
by ChiBurbRaysFan on Dec 17, 2009 2:23 PM EST up reply actions
Walker ended up having a very appropriate name
Bad Left Hook - The SB Nation boxing blog
"Baseball is played on the field, not on a calculator."
Mildly related:
As the M’s have made it a priority to find a DH who can also play a field position, Baker doesn’t anticipate Jonny Gomes, Jack Cust, or Mike Sweeney to land with the club. As one person told him, "[The Mariners] can’t carry two Griffeys.
I can't wait until we trade him for a reliever.
i actually think they are pretty accurate.
CA Dioner Navarro
3B Evan Longoria
SS Reid Brignac (possible, who knows what will happen this spring)
LF Carl Crawford
DH B.J. Upton (not position but a starter)
SP Jeff Nieman
SP Wade Davis
that is not bad in my opinion….
More than 50% of the players listed aren't even with the org.
Those rates probably vary across the league, but again, it’s more or less a pointless exercise based on filling in top prospect names with those stars already in place.
by R.J. Anderson on Dec 17, 2009 2:46 PM EST up reply actions
BA basically says it's pointless when they describe how they come up with the projection.
But people are simpletons and like them.
Tools Whore
OT: I think this guy put some things in perspective, re: market rape
Paul says:
December 17, 2009 at 12:32 pm
Makes the Aki Iwamura deal look awfully good, doesn’t it? Rays wound up getting a reasonably priced near-elite level closer for what would have been a non-tender, and they did not have to give up a draft pick.
I was attacked here for criticizing the Pirates for giving up anything for Aki, and questioning the rationale for adding him at all, noting that nobody needed a 2B.
Dave makes a stupid decision by Hunts official.
http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/the-second-base-glut
I'm a writer.
by Andy Hellicksonstine on Dec 17, 2009 3:27 PM EST reply actions

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