Where Jason's Place is Right Field in Fenway

by R.J. Anderson on Dec 17, 2009 1:00 PM EST

Looking at old editions of the Baseball America Handbook is pretty fun for the projected lineup feature alone. People love rosterbating with prospects and filling them into slots and while BA probably assumes people don't take these literally, I'm sure some do. They are what they are: a prospective lineup three years in the future if trades and free agency don't occur. That being said, here's a reason you should never try to project a lineup a year into the future, forget about two, three, or four. This is the 2010 projected lineup from the 2007 Handbook:

CA Dioner Navarro

1B Joel Guzman

2B Jorge Cantu

3B Evan Longoria

SS Reid Brignac

LF Carl Crawford

CF Rocco Baldelli

RF Delmon Young

DH B.J. Upton

SP Scott Kazmir

SP Jeff Nieman

SP Jacob McGee

SP Wade Davis

SP Matt Walker

CP Juan Salas

All told, eight of the fifteen are no longer in the organization and only five players project to actually be in the starting lineup or rotation on opening day 2010. I mean, yeah, nobody saw the trade of Delmon coming, or Kazmir being dealt, or Salas turning into Waldo, but that's the thing about rosters: they change, a lot. Don't forget that when you try to figure out how the Rays will sort out the rotational mess in 2012. For all we know, Matt Garza will be a Brewer by then.

Bonus fun:

The 2010 Red Sox starting right fielder was something named Jason Place

The 2010 Yankees starting first baseman? Eric Duncan, released a few weeks ago.

Note: I'm in no way mocking BA. Tasks like these are just impossible and ultimately pointless.

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Garza for Gamel and Lucroy

Make this happen.

I'm a writer.

by Andy Hellicksonstine on Dec 17, 2009 1:11 PM EST reply actions

Yeah, BA knows this feature sucks

They took it out one year and got so much negative feedback they had to put it back in.

Vroom vroom party starter
www.raysprospects.com

by Imperialism32 on Dec 17, 2009 1:14 PM EST reply actions

I love the "future line-ups" predictions.

They are complete shots in the dark. But, it’s fun to look at in retrospect.

Blah!

by thebaddancingraysfan on Dec 17, 2009 1:24 PM EST reply actions

Its a nice baseline for seeing who was moved and for what

DH BJ is pretty funny.

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by FreeZorilla on Dec 17, 2009 1:41 PM EST up reply actions

Indeed

I know he was having trouble with SS at the time so it would have been a stretch to predict him as a plus defender at a premium defensive position, but falling all the way to DH in 3 years? You have to have pretty good fielding skills to get a shot at SS in the first place.

by ChiBurbRaysFan on Dec 17, 2009 1:54 PM EST up reply actions

Right, Zobrist is another case of a flawed SS who is excelling at antoher position

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by FreeZorilla on Dec 17, 2009 2:04 PM EST up reply actions

*Every other position

I can't wait until we trade him for a reliever.

by kericr on Dec 17, 2009 3:10 PM EST up reply actions

*Not really, he's not that good in CF, but building up Zobrist as being the ultimate combination of skill while being packed to the teeth with grit is fun enough.

I can't wait until we trade him for a reliever.

by kericr on Dec 17, 2009 3:12 PM EST up reply actions

You also have to be able to hit to be a DH

zing.

I'm a writer.

by Andy Hellicksonstine on Dec 17, 2009 2:10 PM EST up reply actions

Tru

Having a struggling hitter who plays exceptional CF serve as a DH makes as much sense as having 21. Million$ Navi as a reserve catcher to face tough RHP.

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by FreeZorilla on Dec 17, 2009 2:17 PM EST up reply actions

As the M’s have made it a priority to find a DH who can also play a field position, Baker doesn’t anticipate Jonny Gomes, Jack Cust, or Mike Sweeney to land with the club. As one person told him, "[The Mariners] can’t carry two Griffeys.

I can't wait until we trade him for a reliever.

by kericr on Dec 17, 2009 2:02 PM EST reply actions

Nick Johnson.

by R.J. Anderson on Dec 17, 2009 2:20 PM EST up reply actions

i actually think they are pretty accurate.

CA Dioner Navarro

3B Evan Longoria

SS Reid Brignac (possible, who knows what will happen this spring)

LF Carl Crawford

DH B.J. Upton (not position but a starter)

SP Jeff Nieman

SP Wade Davis

that is not bad in my opinion….

by davidsmarch on Dec 17, 2009 2:39 PM EST reply actions

More than 50% of the players listed aren't even with the org.

Those rates probably vary across the league, but again, it’s more or less a pointless exercise based on filling in top prospect names with those stars already in place.

by R.J. Anderson on Dec 17, 2009 2:46 PM EST up reply actions

BA basically says it's pointless when they describe how they come up with the projection.

But people are simpletons and like them.

Tools Whore

by Tyler on Dec 17, 2009 4:42 PM EST up reply actions

Its only 3 years old....

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by FreeZorilla on Dec 17, 2009 2:52 PM EST up reply actions

OT: I think this guy put some things in perspective, re: market rape

Paul says:
December 17, 2009 at 12:32 pm

Makes the Aki Iwamura deal look awfully good, doesn’t it? Rays wound up getting a reasonably priced near-elite level closer for what would have been a non-tender, and they did not have to give up a draft pick.

I was attacked here for criticizing the Pirates for giving up anything for Aki, and questioning the rationale for adding him at all, noting that nobody needed a 2B.

Dave makes a stupid decision by Hunts official.

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/the-second-base-glut

I'm a writer.

by Andy Hellicksonstine on Dec 17, 2009 3:27 PM EST reply actions