New York Yankees to Sign Nick Johnson

by R.J. Anderson on Dec 17, 2009 8:23 PM EST Comment 71 comments

Looks to be a one-year, $5-6M deal. This is no good. Johnson figures to be the Yankees DH, which hurts his value some, but regardless, over the last three years he's posted wOBA of .373/.374/.405. If he does that over a (mostly) full season, he'll be a 20 run bat, which would be good for basically two wins. He's being paid for a little over one win. Of course you have to adjust for age, DH (remember, players hit worse as DH than while playing the field), and league, so he's probably a little under two wins when all is said and done, and there's a non-zero chance that Johnson misses a good chunk of the season because he tears something or steps on a 30-year-old landmine somewhere in a random jungle.

At the end of the day deals like this have to make you shake your head. C'mon Seattle, the other New York, and San Francisco. Help us out here.

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So a sir walk a lot joins the Yanks

Kind of scary to think about Johnson as the DH in the Bronx next season. Posada and Cano should have plenty of runs to drive in 2010 assuming Johnson bats after AROD.

by rickrays on Dec 17, 2009 9:15 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

I see Johnson as a #6 bat

after Posada

PIZZA?!?

by Transplanted on Dec 17, 2009 9:44 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

The guys walks a ton

I would think with Posada’s power he might make more sense after Johnson plus Posada might get 50 to 60 games off next season so you probably think Girardi wants to keep one thru 5 in the order constant.

by rickrays on Dec 17, 2009 9:56 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

No biggie....

Hideki Matusi has been a more productive bat for the Yanks, and it’s no surprise the Yanks are able to pay for a nice DH.

by td32 on Dec 17, 2009 9:37 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Hopefully him and Riggans get into a slap fight and both wind up crippled

I'm a writer.

by Andy Hellicksonstine on Dec 17, 2009 9:38 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Damon out of the Bronx while Cabrera moves to LF

and of course this will make room for Crawford in 2011.

by rickrays on Dec 17, 2009 9:39 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

RJ, I know its late, but what the fuck.

steps on a 90-year-old landmine buried deep below the ocean floor

You blogging while on the sauce, boy?

Mira Sorvino...Paul Walker...T-Pain...Fall 2010...HEADSTONE MAFIA, A LOVE STORY OF REVENGE. "5/5 stars!!!" - DRB User "Andy Hellicksonstine"

by PlayOnWords on Dec 18, 2009 12:33 AM EST reply actions 0 recs

I was making a point about how unlucky he is.

But yeah, the whole buried deep + steps part doesn’t work.

by R.J. Anderson on Dec 18, 2009 12:46 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Hahahahaha

Wtf

by SRQman on Dec 18, 2009 1:02 AM EST up reply actions 1 recs

So Chicago is still wringing their hands over Bradley.

This is the most boring trade plot in history.

Mira Sorvino...Paul Walker...T-Pain...Fall 2010...HEADSTONE MAFIA, A LOVE STORY OF REVENGE. "5/5 stars!!!" - DRB User "Andy Hellicksonstine"

by PlayOnWords on Dec 18, 2009 1:06 AM EST reply actions 0 recs

Chicago Cubs are like the Royals of the NL

Just so freaking stupid. If the sources are correct about the eating of salary, then everyone is just gonna keep walking away from the table laughing. They have 0 leverage.

PIZZA?!?

by Transplanted on Dec 18, 2009 1:09 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Their fans are going apeshit about this. They do not want Bradley back.

I’m starting to believe that our fanbase may have a rival for absolute dumbest.

Mira Sorvino...Paul Walker...T-Pain...Fall 2010...HEADSTONE MAFIA, A LOVE STORY OF REVENGE. "5/5 stars!!!" - DRB User "Andy Hellicksonstine"

by PlayOnWords on Dec 18, 2009 1:10 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Must be the Goat

He cursed their fans with dumbness. At least the TB fan base is young and dumb, Cubs’s have no excuse, they’re old, but failurific.

PIZZA?!?

by Transplanted on Dec 18, 2009 1:15 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

I just don't see why they want him gone so badly.

I thought the 2 out heave into the bleachers was hysterical. Even if he did that in a Rays uniform – that’s funny as fuck. One run isn’t going to kill a competitive team.

Mira Sorvino...Paul Walker...T-Pain...Fall 2010...HEADSTONE MAFIA, A LOVE STORY OF REVENGE. "5/5 stars!!!" - DRB User "Andy Hellicksonstine"

by PlayOnWords on Dec 18, 2009 1:18 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

How they have him on the most hated list instead of Soriano is curious.

by R.J. Anderson on Dec 18, 2009 1:20 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Soriano says nothing and sucks

Bradley has a big moth and sucks. Fans know nothing of finances. Case in point Phillies fans about keeping Lee & Halladay.

PIZZA?!?

by Transplanted on Dec 18, 2009 1:27 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Maybe you guys can smack me straight here

But if the reports about Lee not wanting to test the FA waters are true – would this then be a very questionable move on Philly’s part? How much more dominating can Halladay be? At this point, Amaro has given up Knapp, Carrasco, Taylor, Drabek, and that other dude for Hally and Aumont + cash. The Phils are already rich and Aumont is not the uber spect that Mitch Williams seems to think he is. I recall reading somewhere earlier this year where the M’s had big fears about Aumont needing TJ in the future. But I could be wrong on that.

Mira Sorvino...Paul Walker...T-Pain...Fall 2010...HEADSTONE MAFIA, A LOVE STORY OF REVENGE. "5/5 stars!!!" - DRB User "Andy Hellicksonstine"

by PlayOnWords on Dec 18, 2009 1:32 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

I doubt their payroll and farm system would be able to survive it

With Lee, I heard their payroll would’ve reached 160 millions(CLOSING IN ON THEM YANKEES) and they would’ve traded 7 prospects, and then Lee would demand huge dollars in FA, who knows how much they would need to pay in 2011 and beyond.

PIZZA?!?

by Transplanted on Dec 18, 2009 1:36 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

They could have swung them both for a year.

That’s what they should have done. What do you expect, though? They brought Jamie Moyer back at like 2/15 last year. Then signed a 340 YO Ibanez to the high-water mark 3 year deal.

by rglass44 on Dec 18, 2009 9:33 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Ibanez has already been worth almost 2/3 of that contract

Put up another season like last year and he can fall off a cliff for all they care. They’ll get their money’s worth.

I'm a writer.

by Andy Hellicksonstine on Dec 18, 2009 9:56 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Results-based analysis.

by rglass44 on Dec 18, 2009 10:11 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Your face.

I'm a writer.

by Andy Hellicksonstine on Dec 18, 2009 10:17 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Read this:

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/the-dollar-value-of-a-win/

by rglass44 on Dec 18, 2009 10:20 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

I hate you so very much right now

That was what he was worth last year. He could collapse into a puddle right now never to play again and still have already earned 2/3 of that contract.

I'm a writer.

by Andy Hellicksonstine on Dec 18, 2009 10:24 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

So are the Yanks gaining or losing offense

with Johnson and Granderson versus Matsui and Damon?

Obviously getting Granderson and Cabrera in the outfield helps the defense a lot but offensively, are they losing some? Obviously Johnson has little power but makes up for it with walks.

by BossmanJunior333 on Dec 18, 2009 3:00 AM EST reply actions 0 recs

I would say gaining or at least holding even

Johnson will go into the #2 hole be good for 15 HR or so with the short porch in right, which isn’t much less than Damon hit this year. He also has a much higher OBP. Obviously he doesn’t have nearly as much power as Matsui, but luckily, Granderson does, and doesn’t have the OBP to hit #1 or #2. He hits 6th (move Posada up to 5th) and probably cracks 25-30+ HR taking advantage of the Stadium. He also has quite a bit of speed. It’s still possible that we will add a big bat such as Holliday or Bay, but we’ll see.

And yes, I am lurking.

by YankeesRock on Dec 18, 2009 4:46 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Just looking at offense I did a 5/3/2 look at all 4 players over the last 3 years

Each player was worth an average of:
Damon=20.46 wRAA
Matsui=19.00
Granderson=17.57
Johnson=22.32

On numbers alone, they’re practically even (39.9 for the new, 39.5 for the old), but this isn’t all about numbers. Both of the new guys are left-handed and will benefit enormously from the new park. Another point, they are replacing to guys that were 35 last year with two guys that were 28 and 30 last year. Lastly, they paid last years duo 13M each while the guys they are bringing in will make 11.5M combined. This is a win all around for the Yankees and the only thing scarier is that they might not be done yet. Of course the next piece they add knocks down the domino that leads Boston to trade the farm for Adrian Gonzalez. It’s really not much fun to make seemingly perfect moves and still get outplayed.

I'm a writer.

by Andy Hellicksonstine on Dec 18, 2009 9:36 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Meh

How do you get that figure for Johnson? Using 5/4/3 I get the following:
5*21=105
4*5.5=22
3*0=0
127/12=10.6

by rglass44 on Dec 18, 2009 10:15 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

I use 5/3/2 to weight each of the wOBA component categories (BB, 2B, HR, etc...)

You end up with a weighted average of ((0.72*(81.4-6.2)(0.75*9.8)(0.9*68)(1.24*23.6)(1.56*1)+(1.95*10.1))/456.7 gives you a wOBA of 0.379. Then I did the same for all of the Majors over the last 3 years to get a wOBA of 0.323. (0.379-0.323)/1.15*456.7 = 22.319

This may not plug and play perfectly due to rounding, but I wouldn’t advise just multiplying wRAA by your weights.

I'm a writer.

by Andy Hellicksonstine on Dec 18, 2009 10:23 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Isn't wRAA park adjusted?

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by FreeZorilla on Dec 18, 2009 10:26 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

How much of an impact does a park have?

I thought it went without saying that this is pretty quick and dirty, I guess I thought wrong.

I'm a writer.

by Andy Hellicksonstine on Dec 18, 2009 10:28 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

In NY's case considerable, right?

Yanks wRAA would be quite less than park neutral

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by FreeZorilla on Dec 18, 2009 10:33 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

I'm listing what he has been that park should be intutive at this point

I'm a writer.

by Andy Hellicksonstine on Dec 18, 2009 10:35 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

But Johnson is a walking injury.

He’s played 0, 38, and 133 games the last three years. Why would you project him to play the same as guys that have played twice that in the same span? It isn’t like he had a freak injury either. The guy is made of glass.

by rglass44 on Dec 18, 2009 10:30 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Matsui isn't exactly a model of consistency, I gapped the year he missed and went with the one prior

I'm a writer.

by Andy Hellicksonstine on Dec 18, 2009 10:36 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

consistency should be health

I'm a writer.

by Andy Hellicksonstine on Dec 18, 2009 10:36 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Matsui has played in twice as many games as Johnson in the last 3 years.

by rglass44 on Dec 18, 2009 10:45 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

The wRAA figures I have listed factor in PA's more = higher so even playing half as many games he has been worth more

It comes back to, would you rather have Burrell for 600 PA’s or Bradley for 400.

I'm a writer.

by Andy Hellicksonstine on Dec 18, 2009 10:48 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Weighted average wOBA of .353 assuming league average wOBA of .323 from 100:700 PA's

2.59
5.18
7.76
10.35
12.94
15.53
18.12

I'm a writer.

by Andy Hellicksonstine on Dec 18, 2009 10:51 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

dammit that's for Granderson

I'm a writer.

by Andy Hellicksonstine on Dec 18, 2009 10:52 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

For Johnson

4.89
9.77
14.66
19.55
24.44
29.32
34.21

If he goes to the plate 300 times he will make his contract, even if he misses a stretch they are one of the few teams that could lost him for half a season and get him back for the playoffs and be fine.

I'm a writer.

by Andy Hellicksonstine on Dec 18, 2009 10:54 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Once again.

They are the Yanks. Money doesn’t matter. The contract doesn’t matter. I’d rather they sign Johnson at 1 mill than Damon at 15. It really doesn’t make a difference. the one bonus of them not getting Damon is the years aspect.

by rglass44 on Dec 18, 2009 10:57 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

We'll see.

I just think it hurts their flexibility. I’d rather they sign him than Damon. Plain and simple. Who cares about how much they spent on him? It doesn’t matter.

by rglass44 on Dec 18, 2009 10:52 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs