A Brief Look at Pat Burrell's Projections
by R.J. Anderson on Dec 18, 2009 2:42 PM EST
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PrintNo need for intros. Here's the vital information:
| System | BA | OBP | SLG | OPS |
| Burrell 09 | 0.221 | 0.315 | 0.367 | 0.682 |
| CHONE | 0.223 | 0.338 | 0.395 | 0.733 |
| ZiPS | 0.23 | 0.337 | 0.415 | 0.752 |
| Avg DH 09 | 0.255 | 0.337 | 0.443 | 0.78 |
The good news it that a bounceback is projected. The bad is that he stills figures to be a below average DH. Frankly, I'd be willing to take the over on the two projections combined OPS (~.740), but there are some folks around the game who think he's toast. Meanwhile, others cite the contract year breakout -- which I believe Between the Numbers all but outed as a myth. Regardless, here's a poll, have at it.
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Over
Not sure if I believe it or if I am just hopeful he plays for another contract so Over.
Fire and Ice: Rafael Soriano and J.P Howell.......with their side kick Grant the aussie Balfour!
Go back and look at the comparables post I did after he signed.
This was suppose to be the downer year.
by R.J. Anderson on Dec 18, 2009 4:15 PM EST up reply actions
CHONE and zips are pretty bare-bones though right?
They don’t look at age or similar players or anything right?
ZiPS looks at comparables.
I’m not 100% certain on CHONE. Marcels doesn’t, PECOTA does.
by R.J. Anderson on Dec 18, 2009 4:26 PM EST up reply actions
That same comparables IIRC would indicate that he would bounce back pretty well this year, but would never reach those levels again afterwards.
I can't wait until we trade him for a reliever.
he was hurt some last year
Didnt he have a hurt neck or something? I would think that would make it pretty hard to swing the stick. I like him to bounce back to a little above .800 in his contract year
Yep
He had an neck impingement, I’ve had the same exact problem before, it can take weeks to a couple of monthes to heal, and it takes a while to regain the strength in the shoulder of whatever side the impingement affects….and hurts like hell, you can barely even turn your head, the only time it doesn’t hurt is when you’re sleeping.
by Blue or CONKZILLA on Dec 19, 2009 5:04 AM EST up reply actions
We should take a poll to see if people think he hurt it in a car crash or performing cunnilingus
As noted HERE
I'm a writer.
by Andy Hellicksonstine on Dec 19, 2009 10:11 AM EST up reply actions
Those are the only 2 ways to hurt your neck.
Maybe he was just uncomfortable with his underwear choice.
Here's my FG proj's
.252/.356/.468/.825
I'm a writer.
by Andy Hellicksonstine on Dec 18, 2009 3:35 PM EST reply actions
I really don't think he ever got comfortable as a DH
Hopefully this changes in 2010
Also it’s the first time in his career he was hurt for any length of time
Also, his track record of PT v MB favors PTB—Big time
I read where SEA’s planning on MB playing LF—if true count on him for <100 games
Especially on that turf, he's such an enigma, he could come out on fire to stick it to the Cubs, or I could see him coming out like dogshit
I'm a writer.
by Andy Hellicksonstine on Dec 18, 2009 3:40 PM EST up reply actions
While i wanted MB--it was certainly with quite a bit of risk
He’s flamed out everywhere—why? who really knows
I'm going on record that Gabe Gross will end up with a higher WAR next year.
I'm a writer.
by Andy Hellicksonstine on Dec 18, 2009 3:47 PM EST up reply actions
My prediction
April 1, 2010, Sternfan1 post “April Fools- it’s RJ and has been since November of last year”. Also PtB for at least a .770 OPS.
the ghost of stokes, camp, lugo strikes TB-sept 2009
by CubFanRaysaddict on Dec 18, 2009 4:14 PM EST up reply actions
I believe it.
I almost miss the old sternfan1.
But I won’t ask RJ what he did with him because that makes me an accomplice.
Hooray for CubsStats.blogspot.com !
Yeah, Cubs are about to sign Byrd
Getting rid of Bradley and gaining Silva and Byrd is not the way to return to the playoffs
Fire and Ice: Rafael Soriano and J.P Howell.......with their side kick Grant the aussie Balfour!
Good. I hope Milwaukee takes it this year.
Mira Sorvino...Paul Walker...T-Pain...Fall 2010...HEADSTONE MAFIA, A LOVE STORY OF REVENGE. "5/5 stars!!!" - DRB User "Andy Hellicksonstine"
Need more than Yo and the rest of the clowns in the rotation for that to happen.
I'm a Brett Favre honk so FUCK YOU!
by PriceMultiCyYoungs on Dec 18, 2009 5:41 PM EST up reply actions
How about Burrell just warms the bench and opens sunflower seed bags for the guys
Now that that Bradley is gone to Seattle I’m starting to likeidea someoen brough up of Kapler DH vs left handed pitching. Brignac as DH vs right handed pitching. Joyce would have to play fulltime for that to happen. Burrell sucks.
Forgert Burrell, forget Navi
Here is the real issue for next season
yes, BA will do about 50 games on TV, Kevin Kennedy does about 100
Source: Mark Topkins twitter, another 100 games of that hemroid
Fire and Ice: Rafael Soriano and J.P Howell.......with their side kick Grant the aussie Balfour!
I wonder if I can pay XM to take him back
Bad Left Hook - The SB Nation boxing blog
"Baseball is played on the field, not on a calculator."
OMG RUGGIANO WTFBBQ
Fire and Ice: Rafael Soriano and J.P Howell.......with their side kick Grant the aussie Balfour!
0 for 2 2k's
damnit is there any country you can hit in?
Fire and Ice: Rafael Soriano and J.P Howell.......with their side kick Grant the aussie Balfour!
stop blue balling me
Venezuelan reporter Efrain Zavarce says that Kelvim Escobar has signed with … a Venezuelan Winter League team. He’ll pitch in relief tomorrow, and the Rays will have someone in attendance.
Makes it sound like the only the Rays will be in attendance, doubt that
Fire and Ice: Rafael Soriano and J.P Howell.......with their side kick Grant the aussie Balfour!
Winning in 2010
I think Maddon will be much less tolerant of Burrell’s inadequacy in 2010. This year it needs to be all about winning as the roster will probably look much different in 2011. His reflexes are simply too slow to hit. Slider away, slider away, slider away. I think we will see Burrell be given a shot but if he doesn’t produce he will become fast friends with the pine. Maybe I am just hoping as I really don’t think I can watch him for another full season.
I wish people wouldn't be so damn short-sighted when they talk about Burrell.
There wasn’t anybody anywhere that was better available that wouldn’t cost anything. Burrell sucked last year yeah, but you weren’t going to find anybody to replace him by the time that was realized.
I can't wait until we trade him for a reliever.
I wish Abreu or Dunn hadn't been retarded about wantng to play the field.
I’d love to see Dunn in a Rays uni.
I think Dunn was my 2nd choice behind Bradley, but yeah. Bad fielders should know they're bad at fielding and shouldn't want to field.
I can't wait until we trade him for a reliever.
Disagree
Actually more focused on 2010 than 2009 but re 2009, if the Rays FO was able to bring in bullpen pro-rated retreads like Russ Springer and Jeff Bennett they could have brought in someone to take a few bats away from Burrell. Also, Aybar could have gotten a few more swings. Joyce, Brignac against RH pitchers. Toward the end of the year, Kapler against LH pitchers. There were options but Maddon hoped against hope.
Pat Burrell needs to look at this year as Bobby Abreu did last--playing for his MLB future
Abreu responded and now has a lucrative two year deal, can PTB do the same?
I don't see how the RFO can stand pat on Pat
Offer Burrell and pay half his salary to the Mets for a low level prospect. Use the 4.5 million left signing Cust to DH and Escobar.
Wishful thinking
But it looks like Bay to the Mets is all but a done deal, especially if they’re willing to go 5 years. And if we got rid of PtB, why would we sign Cust? He’s a left handed Burrell. I’d rather call up Brignac and Rodriguez and go to a DH by committee.
I agree with you on Escobar, but with so many teams interested, someone’s going to end up overpaying. But it won’t be AF.
Yeah it's wishful thinking on my part
If Pat looks like garbage in ST here is a option. Use Joyce as the everyday RF. Kapler as DH vs lefthanded pitching and Brignac vs righthanded. Pat would be just a bat to come off the bench. It’ll give Brignac a chance to get close to 400 AB’s in 2010. Last year Reid had a .343 BA vs righthanded pitching in 70 AB’s so hope is there. We know what Kapler is capable of. I’m not a big fan of this but the thought of Pat the bat rack again as DH make me ill. No room on the roster for SROD if the rest are healthy.
Making decisions based off spring training is a terrible idea.
It’s four weeks of exhibition ball with varying degrees of competition, readiness, and effort. Unless he shows up out of shape and clearly unready to play, I don’t see anything that would suggest hitting (or not hitting) in exhibition games should matter.
Besides, to show how meaningless spring stats really are, Burrell hit . .291/.385/.509 in spring, meanwhile Kapler hit .150/.215/.217 and Dioner Navarro hit .340/.375/.434.
by R.J. Anderson on Dec 19, 2009 2:37 PM EST up reply actions
And again, that's over a 20 game stretch.
I really don’t think there’s much to gain from these guys with track records.
by R.J. Anderson on Dec 19, 2009 4:40 PM EST up reply actions
Ahem
Making decisions based off spring training stats is a terrible idea.
Fixed.
In that small of a sample size, stats are worthless, but you can definitely infer a lot about a player from his swing/timing/eye – even from a 20 game sample. Scouts still are useful you know ;)
by vivaelpujols on Dec 20, 2009 10:12 PM EST up reply actions
I said if Pat looks like garbage in ST they should have a option
As I recall Pat did not hit that many long balls during ST in 2009. at least when I was watching him in PC. He was paid to hit for power and never showed it. If I were Burrell I wouldn’t take ST as just a warmup for 2010 season. Pat could be out of baseball altogether if he has a similar 2010 as he did in 2009. The lease should be short and options plenty to replace Burrell.
I think that's a bit pessimistic.
Andruw Jones and Ken Griffey Jr. are still getting jobs despite being shells of their past. Unless Burrell absolutely flatlines, he’ll have a job in 2011 with someone.
by R.J. Anderson on Dec 19, 2009 4:39 PM EST up reply actions
If one or two of the following can have a break out year
S-Rod, Joyce, Kapler , and if Burrell plays to a typical Burrell year, we never miss Bradley
9th inning already, no Kelvim
Fire and Ice: Rafael Soriano and J.P Howell.......with their side kick Grant the aussie Balfour!
I figured he might come in to close in 9th
Lara leading 5-2 in bottom of 8th
I think he is warming up
I was hoping it stay tied and maybe he can throw 2 innings
Fire and Ice: Rafael Soriano and J.P Howell.......with their side kick Grant the aussie Balfour!
oh Capps is a Cub
I am pretty sure we stopped caring about Capps when it became a 12 team race
Fire and Ice: Rafael Soriano and J.P Howell.......with their side kick Grant the aussie Balfour!
Good for him to stay in the NL
How much was his contract?
nevermind, turns out hes just close to signing with them, hes still a FA
Fire and Ice: Rafael Soriano and J.P Howell.......with their side kick Grant the aussie Balfour!
Escobar didn't pitch tonight for Lara
Not a good sign to not throw three days after a bullpen session. He’ll have to answer questions. Rays might pass after tonight.
isnt that very possibly on the manager
I think someone would of mentioned if he was hurt
Fire and Ice: Rafael Soriano and J.P Howell.......with their side kick Grant the aussie Balfour!
We'll find out soon enough
First they say he’s pitching Friday then it’s Saturday. Not a good sign. Kelvim might have went a bit too hard Wednesday on the bullpen session
Escobar didn't pitch because of how dominant their SP was
Now he is supposed to pitch tomorrow
Fire and Ice: Rafael Soriano and J.P Howell.......with their side kick Grant the aussie Balfour!
Goof just called us the Devil Rays on ESPN at St Pete Bowl
2008 AL East and AL banners at the Trop just got face time on ESPN at St Pete Bowl but announcer called Trop Tropicana Stadium home of the 2008 AL Champion Devil Rays.
Johnny Damon
MLB Trade Rumors has the Rays, Braves, Cubs and another team listed as the teams interested in Damon….granted, he’d be a huge improvement over Burrell, but where the hell are they getting that info from?
by Blue or CONKZILLA on Dec 20, 2009 2:22 PM EST reply actions
I can`t see a reasonable scenario in which Damon comes to the Rays.
How can you have any pudding if you havn`t eaten your meat? I`m still waiting...
by Barnese and Bailey Circus on Dec 20, 2009 2:49 PM EST up reply actions
Neither do I
that’s why I was surprised to see the Rays attached. I think he fits best with the Braves or the Giants.
by Blue or CONKZILLA on Dec 20, 2009 9:11 PM EST reply actions
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