Tampa Bay Rays' Kelly Shoppach Brings All or Nothing Approach
In case you haven't noticed, when the Rays acquire a new players we like to analyze, analyze, and then analyze some more. R.J. gave you the overview of Kelly Shoppach trade as well as likely outlook for next season, but for this exercise, I'm going to focus on plate discipline.
Shoppach has no issues when it comes to walks. In 2008, he walked 9.3% of the time and boosted that to nearly 11% in 2010. After watching Dioner Navarro walk just 7.4% of the time in 2008 and barely walk in 2009 (4.6%), it will be nice to see a little more free passes accepted. In fact, despite having 150 less plate appearances over the last two seasons, Shoppach has 17 more walks than Navi. He also has a mastered the ability to get hit by the ball (29 times in the past two seasons), which seems to be a repeatable skill. Those are the good parts of his plate discipline, however, there's some bad, especially for the strikeout haters.
R.J. made mention of his whopping 37.3% K rate. That puts him in the who's who of hackers along side names like: Jack Cust, Mark Reynolds, Russell Branyan, and our own Carlos Pena. The strange part is his O-Swing (27.6%), while high, isn't that terrible. Sure, Reynolds and Branyan were in that territory last season, but so was fellow backstop, Brian McCann. Swinging at pitches outside the zone isn't the big issue, but Shoppach's contact rate on those pitches is.
Among players with at least 300 plate appearances, Shoppach's O-Contact% of 37.5 was good (or bad) enough for dead last for qualified participants. Once again, he is joined by the hacking crew of: Pena, Cust, Howard, Reynolds and Branyan. Contact on pitches out of the zone isn't the problem for Shoppach. His contact rates on pitches in the strike zone are also fairly poor.
Of pitches swung at in the zone, Shoppach makes contact 77.2% of the time. That would be the seventh lowest contact rate for hitters with a minimum of 300 PAs. His overall contact rate of 65.7% is fifth lowest behind the aforementioned Reynolds and Pena as well as Chris Davis and Miguel Olivo. The bulk of Shoppach's issues seem to come off sliders and curveballs in addition to pitches that are middle in and above.I know Derek Shelton is familiar with Shoppach already, but maybe someone could point this fact out to him. If not, I happen to know a swing mechanic.
In case you haven't noticed it by now, Shoppach is basically Carlos Pena's twin brother but in catcher form and minus smile% and some power. The good news is when he's not swinging and missing, he's either walking, getting hit, or getting extra base hits; somewhat of a three outcome hitter. Some will struggle with all the swinging and missing, but Shoppach's power at his position will be a welcomed sight. In 2008, he led all catchers with a .256 ISO. Taking a step back in 2009, his .185 was still good for seventh best among catchers.
The Shoppach trade is hardly perfect. We do not know who the PTBNL is, and Shoppach isn't exactly the definition of cheap; his value of $7.8 million in 2009, suggests his arb2 number should be in the neighborhood of $3 million. Nonetheless, void of acquiring Joe Mauer or Brian McCann, teams are going to have to deal with the available crop of flawed, mostly average Major League catchers. The good news is the Rays catching situation was so bad that if Shoppach is merely average, that alone will be an upgrade. If would be even better if he can land somewhere between 2008 and 2009 in 2010.
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I think the PTBNL is Anuery, no info, just a hunch
The Indians will select him in the Rule Five and will forgive them of the 25 man restriction. If thats the case, the Rays did well with Hammel given the circumstances.
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If correct, Hammel for Shoppach is pretty decent.
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by Tommy Rancel on Dec 2, 2009 12:15 PM EST via mobile up reply actions
Per the Cleveland Plain Dealer
Shapiro says the list to pick from only has two players on it. For what it’s worth.
Steel Nick
So Aneury and Longo?
I'm a writer.
by Andy Hellicksonstine on Dec 2, 2009 12:48 PM EST up reply actions
Aneury and Jennings are the list
Shapiro can’t make up his mind so he is calling Omar Minaya for a second opinion.
by Jason Collette on Dec 2, 2009 1:07 PM EST up reply actions
It better not be Aybar.
I would help Elliot pack his bags however.
by R.J. Anderson on Dec 2, 2009 1:22 PM EST up reply actions
Should be easy
HE’S ALREADY CLEANED OUT HIS LOCKER
I'm a writer.
by Andy Hellicksonstine on Dec 2, 2009 1:27 PM EST up reply actions
That source is about as reliable as when I questioned whether it could be Aybar yesterday.
I'm a writer.
by Andy Hellicksonstine on Dec 2, 2009 1:29 PM EST up reply actions
Exactly.
It seems like they hope its Aybar more than him actually being the player.
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by Tommy Rancel on Dec 2, 2009 1:31 PM EST via mobile up reply actions
"they have the potential to be on the 25-man roster next season"
Implies someone who wouldn’t NEED to be on the 25-man roster, like Aybar.
Bad Left Hook - The SB Nation boxing blog
"Baseball is played on the field, not on a calculator."
Them drafting a player of ours in the rule 5 still makes some sense
They would draft someone who could “potentially” be on the 25-man roster and then the Rays could just give them the rights incase the Indians decided they wanted to stash that player in the minors.
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by Tommy Rancel on Dec 2, 2009 1:59 PM EST via mobile up reply actions
So the Rays could trade Aneury, and he's no longer a Rule 5 candidate
as long as the Indians put him on the 40 man?
Select first, and then the Rays can waive the Rule Five give back clause as the PTBNL
Cleveland picks 5 and the top 4 have 40 men on their roster
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Good Question
Is there some way around even having him on the 40 man if the Rays waive the give back?
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Sure, but that re-exposes him to any team willing to stash on 40
No leverage gained in trade
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If they trade before Rule 5
He could still get selected in Rule 5.
If they don’t take him in Rule 5 (where the Indians have a high pick) and hope to wait to trade until after Rule 5 is over, then someone else could take him in Rule 5.
Bad Left Hook - The SB Nation boxing blog
"Baseball is played on the field, not on a calculator."
If they trade now he can take Shoppah's 40 man spot without needing to be on 25
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I know Tony
Not personally, but I’m very familiar with is work. He’s a friend of LGT. Great knowledge of prospects.
That being said, he doesn’t have anything inside on this and it’s as speculative as speculation gets. A good rule of thumb with Shapiro’s PTBNLs: It’s not someone we guess. So, quickly, name everyone you like in your organization.
Steel Nick
That's the only time we actually had a transparent list
Brantley was clearly the best option.
Steel Nick
NOT CODY!!!
Mira Sorvino...Paul Walker...T-Pain...Fall 2010...HEADSTONE MAFIA, A LOVE STORY OF REVENGE. "5/5 stars!!!" - DRB User "Andy Hellicksonstine"
Well, decent prospects who 'could be on the 25-man next year'
And who aren’t necessarily valued too high to be a PTBN
Mitch Talbot
Justin Ruggiano
Elliot Johnson
Jake McGee
Dale Thayer
Fernando Perez
Jeff Bennett
Dewon Day
Ray Oliveros
Nevin Ashley (though that would make NO sense)
Aneury Rodriguez
David Newmann
Calvin Medlock
Matt Gorgen
Ryan Reid
Bad Left Hook - The SB Nation boxing blog
"Baseball is played on the field, not on a calculator."
Bennett
Didn’t Jeff just get Designated for Assignment to make room for Shoppach? I think it’s safe to say he’s not on the list.
Ruggiano it is, thanks for playing
I'm a writer.
by Andy Hellicksonstine on Dec 2, 2009 5:18 PM EST up reply actions
No way, he's about to be mechanic'd
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by Tommy Rancel on Dec 2, 2009 6:13 PM EST via mobile up reply actions
Because guys like Bennett are a dime a dozen?
Vroom vroom party starter
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by Imperialism32 on Dec 2, 2009 8:02 PM EST up reply actions
I'm going to pronounce it Show-patch. My reasons are my own.
Mira Sorvino...Paul Walker...T-Pain...Fall 2010...HEADSTONE MAFIA, A LOVE STORY OF REVENGE. "5/5 stars!!!" - DRB User "Andy Hellicksonstine"
PTBNL Rules
“Two rules govern player-to-be-named-later transactions. The deal must close within six months and the player must change leagues (which is why most players to be named later are minor leaguers).”
This rules out Aybar.
Aneury Rodriquez also makes no sense (I roiginaly thought it did) because if the Indians selected him in the Rule 5 draft, for the Rays to be able to trade him and alleviate the Rule 5 restrictions, he’d have to pass through waivers first.
It’s easier to figure out who it isn’t than who it is.
I know Rays fans don’t want to hear this but I’ve got to believe that either Talbot or McGee (or possilby both) are on the list and the Tribe F.O. is busy going over medical files.
Talbot seems like a real possibility
I still think it could be Aneury
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