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Around SBN: Russell Westbrook and Kevin Durant's Post-Game 5 Outfits

A Q&A with Tampa Bay Rays Baseball Operations Assistant Erik Neander

A quick note on Neander: he's one of the brightest minds in the front office. If you need a job description either look below or think of him as James Click's right-hand man. Big thanks to Erik for dishing some information.

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R.J.: Prior to joining the Rays as an intern, you worked at Baseball Info Solutions. What was that experience like?

Erik Neander.: My experience at Baseball Info Solutions (BIS) was invaluable.  Prior to joining BIS in February of 2006, I was pursuing internships with major league organizations, but was severely under-qualified for all available opportunities.  While at BIS, I carefully reviewed an abundance of video and attempted to take advantage of the endless supply of data on hand.  I was surrounded by a collection of people -- full time staff and interns alike -- that were incredibly well educated on the game and they taught me an awful lot, most of which I ignorantly assumed that I already knew.  The hours and lifestyle provided a preview of life in the baseball industry, which allowed me to gauge how serious I was about pursuing a career in baseball.  I'm very grateful for the opportunity and wouldn't trade those ten months for anything, despite my desires of hooking on with a club prior to joining BIS.

R.J.: You interned with the club in 2007, correct?

E.N.: Correct.  James Click offered me a four month internship, geared towards the analytical side of the game.  The position required a fundamental understanding of SQL, something that I serendipitously picked up during my final weeks at BIS.  Matt Lorenzo, one of BIS's technical minds, strongly recommended that I learn SQL, suggesting that it was a useful skill that some clubs would value.  I'm pretty sure it was just his way of getting me off of his back with data requests, but it undoubtedly opened the door for my opportunity with the Rays.

R.J.: When you rejoined the team in a full-time capacity at some point in 2007, did you keep in touch with James Click and the other front office members, or did they just call you up out of the blue one day?

E.N.: Fortunately, my internship eventually transitioned into a full-time position with the club.  I was able to stretch my initial four month agreement into a season long internship.  That September, Andrew offered me a chance to stick around on a full-time basis and I wasn't about to decline.  I'm very grateful for the opportunity.

R.J.: At this point, what are your day-to-day responsibilities?

E.N.: Right now, I'm primarily focused on research and development, working to improve our understanding of the information that we can get our hands on.  Player evaluation, both externally and internally, also takes up a lot of my time.  Of course, there's overlap between the former and the latter.

R.J.: Everyone makes a big hoopla about team chemistry, but how good is the rapport amongst the front office?

E.N.: It's great.  We get along incredibly well, especially considering the amount of time we spend working side by side.  It's a very positive environment with a high level of accountability.  There's strong communication and trust within the organization, and that's critical to our operation as we all have to step into the batter's box together; there aren't any individual showdowns.   

R.J.: When deciding to have B.J. Upton play shallow, to what degree was the team conscious of balancing the subtraction of on-base percentage points even in light of potentially increasing slugging percentage?

E.N.: Balancing extra bases against outs is a key concept when determining how to best position defenders.  We attempt to account for a variety of factors, but ultimately, any recommended positioning has to fit with a fielder's abilities relative to the demands of the position he's playing.   

R.J.: The Pat Burrell signing brought with it questions about whether his power would translate to a park that normally constricts righty power; how much time and energy do the Rays put into research projects like this so that they don't end up with a situation akin to Adrian Beltre in Safeco?

E.N.: We do our best to account for as many variables as possible, parks included.  We're constantly working to improve our methods, though we are probably closer to not having any of the answers than we are to having all of the answers.  It's very difficult to calculate context neutral performance.  Of course, I could always cherry pick and point out that Burrell's ISO at Tropicana Field was only .009 below his ISO at Citizen's Bank Park in 2008.

R.J.: Staying on Burrell, obviously he had a poor season, but do you think people still have a misconception about how batters' production reacts after becoming a full-time DH?

E.N.: Pat went through a lot during the 2009 season and experienced several firsts, including transitioning to the DH slot.  I can't speak for how Pat's conversion from LF to DH specifically impacted his offensive output, but quality work has been published that suggests it's more difficult to hit when you aren't playing the field.  Given Pat's track record of offensive performance, we're excited to see what he can accomplish in 2010.

R.J.: J.P. Howell has experienced some backlash because of blown saves, but given his strong peripherals, isn't this just the random distribution of runs giving him a bad name?

E.N.: Blown saves are a useful description of an event that occurs during the course of a game, but like any statistic, they don't tell you everything about a player's performance.  It just depends on what you want to know.  If you're using blown saves to evaluate the quality of a reliever's performance, then they have the potential to be misleading, especially with relievers that aren't always used to record the last three outs of the game.

In the case of J.P. Howell, several of his blown saves occurred early in the season, prior to primarily being used in the ninth inning.  Through June 7th, Howell had an ERA of 2.17, yet he had blown five of his seven save opportunities, all of which occurred prior to the ninth inning.  His 29% success rate didn't signify how dominant he was to that point and how many leads he successfully preserved. 

A lot of the backlash surfaced after Langerhans hit the walk-off homerun in Seattle.  Ironically, Howell wasn't even charged with a blown save that evening.

J.P. deserves a lot of credit for his performance over the last two years.  We wouldn't have won 189 games over that same time period without him.  

R.J.: When you guys work on aging projections, how much does the Trop's turf get considered?

E.N.: Great question.  Aging curves appear to be a hot topic right now amongst the online community.  The current surface at Tropicana Field has different characteristics than a natural grass surface, but it also has different characteristics than the Tropicana Field surface from 2006, which has different characteristics from the 1999 surface.  In addition, while FieldTurf plays differently than natural grass, we still have a traditional full dirt infield to consider.  While field surfaces likely carry some impact on how players age, their influence would be extremely difficult to quantify at this time.

R.J.: How often do you meet with Joe Maddon and how open is he to some of the newer avenues of analysis?

E.N.: I spend a lot of time prepping material for our coaching staff, but don't interact with them nearly as much as our Advance Scouting Coordinator, Mike Calitri.  Mike, with the help of his intern, Ben Werthan, does an excellent job providing the staff with practical information.  Joe is very open to anything that we present to him and understands that we're all working towards the same goal.

R.J.: Last thing:  do the Rays not see much added benefit in having a legitimate pinch runner, or is this simply the finite roster limit coming into play?

E.N.: With only twenty-five roster spots to work with, we do our best to squeeze as much usefulness out of each spot as we possibly can.  Of course, we're never going to have everything that we want.

---

Thanks again to Erik for taking time out of his schedule.

Comment 70 comments  |  5 recs  | 

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Nice interview.

I think we’ve reached our “Erik” quota.

by Doug09 on Dec 22, 2009 6:18 AM EST via mobile reply actions  

Pretty awesome

It’s great to see the incredible depth of talent in the Rays’ FO, and the amount of bright minds that are working there.

I loved his description of blown saves: “…useful description of an event that occurs during the course of a game, but like any statistic, they don’t tell you everything about a player’s performance.” That’s a big distinction to note – description versus evaluation.

"I never threw an illegal pitch. The trouble is, once in a while I toss one that ain't never been seen by this generation." - Satchel Paige

by Steve Slowinski on Dec 22, 2009 9:27 AM EST reply actions  

-OT-

Yankees acquire Javier Vazquez for Melky Cabrera, others are also apart of the deal.

by Doug09 on Dec 22, 2009 9:58 AM EST reply actions  

Well fudgsicles, I liked it better when they made garbage moves out of desperation

Should allow them to keep Joba and Hughes in the pen, where they belong, and roll deep in the rotation. I hated the Granderson move because it allowed them to upgrade while cutting payroll. Now they can take on someone else’s contract and get another stud.

I'm a writer.

by Andy Hellicksonstine on Dec 22, 2009 10:29 AM EST up reply actions  

One of Joba or Hughes is starting next year

I think the Yanks are going after another set up man. Vazquez may look like bad news for the rest of the AL as a another very good strike out pitcher joins the Yanks but he will give up a ton of HR’s in that park.

League to the M’s is a great addition to that bullpen. Morrow is injury prone.

by rickrays on Dec 22, 2009 10:41 AM EST up reply actions  

The best part about Vazquez (from their perspective) is that it's only 2010 at 10.5M

If he does crap out they can afford the hit. If he does well they will be in good position to re-sign him. Melky is a nice player, but if I had to choose between him and Gardner, I would take Gardner for all the things that he can do on the bases and in the outfield. If anyone can afford to throw a below average hitter in the 9-hole, it’s them. This assumes that they don’t get Holliday/Bay/Damon, which isn’t completely out of the question. I hate the ALE.

I'm a writer.

by Andy Hellicksonstine on Dec 22, 2009 10:53 AM EST up reply actions  

He put up sub-4.00 FIP's in a similar park when he was with Chicago

It’s not a very large sample, and it includes road games, but Yankee starters had a weighted-average HR/FB of 10.61% last year. I used innings as the weight if you are curious. Over the last 5 years he has averaged about 236 flyballs. Apply that percentage and he would be projected to give up 25 dingers this year. Which approaches the average of what he gave up in The Cell (23,29,25). Use a higher HR/FB%, let say 11% = 26, 12% = 28, 15% = 35. It’s not out of the realm of possibility that he could have a bad luck year in conjunction with that park and give up 15% HR/FB, but over the last 5 years he’s averaged 7.4% in Arizona, 11.4, 8.9, 10.8% in Chicago, and 12% last year in Atlanta.

I'm a writer.

by Andy Hellicksonstine on Dec 22, 2009 11:16 AM EST up reply actions  

That last sentence should read

but over the last 5 years he’s averaged put up 7.4% in Arizona, 11.4, 8.9, 10.8% in Chicago, and 12% last year in Atlanta.

I'm a writer.

by Andy Hellicksonstine on Dec 22, 2009 11:19 AM EST up reply actions  

Decent points

But remember, they have CC and Pettitte, lefties, who check in at 7.4 and 8.9. The righties were Burentt 10.8%,, Joba 12.5%, Wang 15.8%, and Mitre 20.5%.

Follow Me on Twitter @FreeZorilla

by FreeZorilla on Dec 22, 2009 11:28 AM EST up reply actions  

There's a league adjustment to be made, but also a divisional one

Facing the AL East, especially in a band box will affect walks, Ks, and HRs. Fangraph projection contest?

Follow Me on Twitter @FreeZorilla

by FreeZorilla on Dec 22, 2009 11:30 AM EST up reply actions  

I could see him being in a range of 3.85-4.15 FIP

I want to lean towards the under, but I’ve got him so close to 4 that I could see it being over, slightly.

I'm a writer.

by Andy Hellicksonstine on Dec 22, 2009 11:44 AM EST up reply actions  

4 is the Magic #, Over I win, under you win

Your avatar will be Nevin if I win
Mine will be Navi if you win
Deal?

Follow Me on Twitter @FreeZorilla

by FreeZorilla on Dec 22, 2009 11:46 AM EST up reply actions  

My distaste for the Cuse is nothing compared to Navarro

Its like making me sport a Rays logo b/c you like them.

Follow Me on Twitter @FreeZorilla

by FreeZorilla on Dec 22, 2009 11:55 AM EST up reply actions  

My goal isn't to make you do something you don't want to do, it's to bring another fan into the fold

Speaking of Noah, I wanted to ask SRQ how the Bulls ended up doing, I went to bed at halftime and it looked like they had a comfortable lead. Were they able to hang on?

I'm a writer.

by Andy Hellicksonstine on Dec 22, 2009 11:56 AM EST up reply actions  

Oh hey I went to see a movie at half time

Imagine how I felt checking the score on my phone. Whatever fire Vinny Del Coach-o he is a joke.

by SRQman on Dec 22, 2009 4:10 PM EST up reply actions  

Who was more annoying to non-Gators

Noah or Tebow? I can’t imagine anything being more annoying than Noah if hes not on your team.

Follow Me on Twitter @FreeZorilla

by FreeZorilla on Dec 22, 2009 4:29 PM EST up reply actions  

Tebow imo

Noah was funny. I didn’t mind Noah as a Gator and loved when the Bulls drafted him

by SRQman on Dec 22, 2009 4:30 PM EST up reply actions  

My FIP was 4.22, but I used 1.25-1.5 HR

Overstated, I would guess 1.25-1.30. 4.00-4.2 is my estimate.

Follow Me on Twitter @FreeZorilla

by FreeZorilla on Dec 22, 2009 11:44 AM EST up reply actions  

You mean the ALE is a dynamically different division from the NLE?


Christ the Mets were running their AA team out there last year.

I'm a writer.

by Andy Hellicksonstine on Dec 22, 2009 11:50 AM EST up reply actions  

Yankee fans will expect NL East #'s

Still divisional adjsutments aren.t of the 1.25 nature

Follow Me on Twitter @FreeZorilla

by FreeZorilla on Dec 22, 2009 11:51 AM EST up reply actions  

I think the real fans are smarter than you give them credit for, bandwagon fans

won’t even know the trade happened until June. It’s insane to predict that anyone will ever have a 2.77 FIP, especially with a league adjustment, and divisional transition. I think he’ll be more like the guy he was with the White Sox than the guy he was the first time in NY.

I'm a writer.

by Andy Hellicksonstine on Dec 22, 2009 11:55 AM EST up reply actions  

Great.

I’m so pissed right now. I say there’s a less than 10% chance Gardner is their 3rd OF next year. Eff ’em.

by rglass44 on Dec 22, 2009 11:45 AM EST up reply actions  

ehhhh

They’ll also pick up 2 picks if Vazquez walks. This effing sucks.

by rglass44 on Dec 22, 2009 11:47 AM EST up reply actions  

He will disappoint in the NY pressure

Which would hurt his FA value with the Yankees out of the bidding. I’m not sure he would walk away from arb or that the Yankls will offer it.

Follow Me on Twitter @FreeZorilla

by FreeZorilla on Dec 22, 2009 11:49 AM EST up reply actions  

Very good interview but

you can’t discount the severity of a blown save whether it was in the 7th, 8th, 9th or extra inning. The after effects of a blown save can linger on a team for days causing multiple losses or bad streaks. I’ll point to games at the Trop in April vs the Yankees, Yankee Stadium vs Yanks in May, Safeco vs Mariners in August, Rogers Centre vs Blue Jays in August and finally at the Trop vs Tigers in September all key games and all contributed to the demise which factored in why this team did not compete in September. Go look at the win totals the following week after blowing those games. Being number 5 in blown saves in the AL with the four clubs ahead of you having the worst records in the AL isn’t good.

Howell was bounced around a bit in 2009. JP was used to clean up other pitchers mess in some games as well as Maddon’s mad matchups and closer. 2010 JP should have a clear role of what his job is and I hope its one that comes in the game with the bases clean in the 7th or 8th inning as well as the backup closer to Soriano.

I would expect Cormier’s role in 2010 will be greater than it was in 2009 so expect Maddon to use Lance more in close games. Maddon talked last week of how well Howell and Cormier match up vs both right and left handed batters. Reading that from Maddon is refreshing than his gut wrenching bullpen matcups of 2009.

I still hope and believe Burrell will not be with the Rays in 2010.

by rickrays on Dec 22, 2009 10:28 AM EST reply actions  

Until I see someone quantify, "he after effects of a blown save can linger on a team for days causing multiple losses or bad streaks."

I will assume this argument is dubious at best. I hope that Burrell is with us. We could use his bat.

I'm a writer.

by Andy Hellicksonstine on Dec 22, 2009 10:31 AM EST up reply actions  

"(Y)ou can’t discount the severity of a blown save whether it was in the 7th, 8th, 9th or extra inning."

Yes we can. We already have. Countless times.

I can't wait until we trade him for a reliever.

by kericr on Dec 22, 2009 11:18 AM EST up reply actions  

So much for that 185 million dollar payroll

Not that I care about how he feels but Hughes can’t be happy about being in the bullpen for 2010 in regards to future dollars he might earn. With Joba rules out of the way Chamberlain is ready for 200 innings.

by rickrays on Dec 22, 2009 12:38 PM EST up reply actions  

The pen is the best place for both of those guys.

Joba can barely get through 5 most nights, but he is hellfire in the pen. Hughes moving to the pen keyed their run. If you couldn’t beat them in 7 last year, you probably weren’t going to beat them. He should be happy that he gets a ring and a ride.

I'm a writer.

by Andy Hellicksonstine on Dec 22, 2009 12:47 PM EST up reply actions  

Agreed

It will cost Hughes millions of future dollars staying in the Yankee bullpen. Both of them are awesome in the bullpen but for their career dollar wise both can and should be starters. Joba could take over for Mo but who knows when he’s going to retire.

by rickrays on Dec 22, 2009 2:33 PM EST up reply actions  

E...R...A...?

Mira Sorvino...Paul Walker...T-Pain...Fall 2010...HEADSTONE MAFIA, A LOVE STORY OF REVENGE. "5/5 stars!!!" - DRB User "Andy Hellicksonstine"

by PlayOnWords on Dec 22, 2009 1:45 PM EST via mobile reply actions  

It's really not hard to import the data and run a calculation

If you have the formula in a template somewhere you can even just sum the games you want on the b-ref page and then plug into the formula.

I'm a writer.

by Andy Hellicksonstine on Dec 22, 2009 2:41 PM EST up reply actions  

For instance

Up to, and including, June 7th JP had a 2.46 FIP and a 0.259 wOBA. Pretty impressive.

I'm a writer.

by Andy Hellicksonstine on Dec 22, 2009 2:45 PM EST up reply actions  

True.

Although, at least we know he’s not using ERA for anything important.

by R.J. Anderson on Dec 22, 2009 2:53 PM EST up reply actions  

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